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Our leaking defence


Dimmu

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The sad truth is our failure so far to adequately replace Keogh - for his ability to defend, organize the other defenders and carry the ball forward out of defence.

It may be that Dutch Mike evolves into that player - we have to give him time to become acclimatized to the Championship. It may be Evans evolves into that cultured, ball-playing centre half. It may be we need Fozzy to force his way back into the starting 11.

It's unlikely Curtis will get five years younger. Perhaps Wisdom or Clark can grow into the role of marshalling and dominating the defence that I feel they don't do at the moment, but could both be capable of.

The scary thing about these stats is that, as well as conceding the most chances, we generate the fewest!

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14 minutes ago, Dimmu said:

Sad but true. We've been as poor as Wycombe or notts forest.

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What you think is the reason for this?

What are "Big chances conceded"? We've conceded 8 so far this season, 2 of which were Johnson's long range efforts which I doubt can be considered "big chances" ? 

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

What are "Big chances conceded"? We've conceded 8 so far this season, 2 of which were Johnson's long range efforts which I doubt can be considered "big chances" ? 

This is secretly another "expected goals" thread. The caption points to these being chances where there's a greater than 35% chance of scoring. So we'd have expected to concede three or more goals from these opportunities so far this season.

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For me it’s a small sample size. Add in that without firepower up front, we play too much of the time on the back foot.

Add some spice to the front and the defence is less exposed. Sure we have weaknesses but they are exaggerated as we play an over large percentage of the game in our own half. .. I am not seriously worried by our defence. The midfield and attack need to relieve the pressure and the stats will swing the other way. . Hate 2 deep sitting mids .. it’s a ticket to surrender.

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I'd question the credibility of these stats. Blackburn have a 0 score yet in the first few minutes against them, Bird had a great chance to score and i would expect a goal from that move 2 out of 3 times.

Doesn't disguise the fact that we had been poor in the first 3 league games.

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Man City have conceded 7 in 3 games.

Man Utd 11 in 3.

Liverpool 11 in 4.

I know that's a different league, but these guys have spent millions on defenders and goalkeepers. It's so early in the season all stats are going to look skewed. Most important stat is points won and we have 3 so far. Not as much as we would've liked, but we had a slow start last season and then started to get better, and that was with a considerably worse squad (opinion based on expected quality of incoming players vs players we've lost and how vital they were to us last season).

We defended well against Norwich, so we now know we can grind results out. The Blackburn game was a freak, much like Liverpool would say about the Villa game, Man U would say about the Spurs game and Man City would say about the Leicester game.

Do those one off results make Pep and Klopp bad managers? (Omitted Ole for obvious reasons ?)

Do those one off results make Virgil Van Dijk and Nathan Ake bad defenders? (Omitted Maguire for obvious reasons ?)

Do those one off results cost more than 3 points over a full season?

I don't care if we're top of this negative table just now, as long as we aren't top of it after the next month or two of matches.

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8 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

This is secretly another "expected goals" thread. The caption points to these being chances where there's a greater than 35% chance of scoring. So we'd have expected to concede three or more goals from these opportunities so far this season.

Based purely on xG, we would have drawn the first game 1-1, Luton and Blackburn would have been 2-2 (possibly a 2-1 win and 2-1 loss) and a 2-0 or 2-1 vs Norwich.

Total xG scores are 4.2 for and 6.5 against.

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6 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

I'd question the credibility of these stats. Blackburn have a 0 score yet in the first few minutes against them, Bird had a great chance to score and i would expect a goal from that move 2 out of 3 times.

Doesn't disguise the fact that we had been poor in the first 3 league games.

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Not sure how many of those are 35% or greater, but Dylan's opener was worth 0.5 despite being a few yards out with an open net. Looks like Bird's was about 0.25 when it was pretty much cleared off the line by the defender.

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21 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

I'd question the credibility of these stats. Blackburn have a 0 score yet in the first few minutes against them, Bird had a great chance to score and i would expect a goal from that move 2 out of 3 times.

Doesn't disguise the fact that we had been poor in the first 3 league games.

Totally agree. What about Buchanan’s header from 3 yards out. Surely that was a big chance. Can’t be bothered with data like this - the league table is all you need! 

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