rammieib Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 hours ago, BIllyD said: Depends if you want to be back in lockdown in the summer again I suppose ?♀️ It's a global pandemic, even if we have our own house in order and let's not forget that is reliant on a number of factors, for example the duration the vaccine is effective for, other countries are going to be behind us. We will be back to "normal" at some point, hopefully in the summer this will see most of the measures relaxed, but there will still be some safeguards in place, no doubt about that. Im sure you'd be the first to be you would be up arms if we fully relax everything and then in the winter got caught by a new strain or something from another country and we had to go into lockdown again. Yeah I know, propaganda, never would happen etc.etc. A large part of me has accepted this virus, or certainly strains of it, will be back no matter what next winter, vaccine or no vaccine. Why? Because that’s what a virus does - the Flu comes back every year. What I am hopeful of is the continued development not only of vaccines but treatments. I read today about an article from Israel and a cancer drug they gave to circa 300 people in hospital and everyone was discharged within five days. More things like this will be developed... As for the Summer - everyone will be outside, so the virus would go down significantly vaccine or no vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 hours ago, 86 Hair Islands said: Odd that you've never mentioned this before... Not really when the ever recurring theme is selfish people just want to get back in the pub and in the main by people whose greatest passion it seems is drinking indoors??♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 hours ago, Albert said: This is inherently the issue with you just repeating yourself, you will tend towards just stating points that have already been dealt with. Would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the response to terrorism in the 00s then. As noted though, there's more to this than just '400 deaths', as those '400 deaths' refers to things still being somewhat slowed. 'Opening up', in the broadest sense, does not do that anymore, and from those 400 deaths, there would be many more people who were seriously ill and in need of hospital care, as well as though with long term consequences. It spiked as key areas were opened up. The weather alone did not achieve that. Equally, R_0 for the new strain is higher than the original, with further complicates things. We're not debating that though, we're debating what is necessary. Look people why can’t you just accept that once Albert has spoken that means any subject has been dealt with ???, be interesting to know , after all the over 50s and vulnerable have been vaccinated do you want a return to no lockdowns and end of restrictions ? Let’s have a show of hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, Archied said: Look people why can’t you just accept that once Albert has spoken that means any subject has been dealt with ???, be interesting to know , after all the over 50s and vulnerable have been vaccinated do you want a return to no lockdowns and end of restrictions ? Let’s have a show of hands The UK's entire response has been the very definition of 'management by committee', and look how well that's gone. Interesting that your position is that such should continue right to the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 42 minutes ago, Albert said: The UK's entire response has been the very definition of 'management by committee', and look how well that's gone. Interesting that your position is that such should continue right to the bitter end. Yes your right, dictatorship is far better ???, we really don’t want people questioning why we should still be under siege when the over 50s and the vulnerable have been vaccinated,,, god knows where that might lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Archied said: Yes your right, dictatorship is far better ???, we really don’t want people questioning why we should still be under siege when the over 50s and the vulnerable have been vaccinated,,, god knows where that might lead Deferring to experts is not a dictatorship. No modern democracy would function if every single decision was made by popular vote. The reasons for a staged exit from lockdown have already been given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Seems like there's growing evidence vaccines don't work as well on the south African variant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 hours ago, Albert said: This is inherently the issue with you just repeating yourself, you will tend towards just stating points that have already been dealt with. Back at you - although I would suggest that my replies don't carry the same level of arrogance in stating that 'points have been dealt with'. 6 hours ago, Albert said: Would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the response to terrorism in the 00s then. As noted though, there's more to this than just '400 deaths', as those '400 deaths' refers to things still being somewhat slowed. 'Opening up', in the broadest sense, does not do that anymore, and from those 400 deaths, there would be many more people who were seriously ill and in need of hospital care, as well as though with long term consequences. Only really replying again because of this comment - which is a tactic you like to use when trying to wriggle out of a corner. Comparing 400 covid deaths to 00s terrorism is like comparing apples to oranges. Why don't we compare the 400 deaths to the numbers that die from entirely preventable smoking or drinking to excess? Or the 1k-2k that die on the roads each year? Why don't we shut the country down every winter to save 10k annual flu deaths? Callous as though it may sound 400 deaths over the course of a year does not justify remaining in lockdown. As for the pressure those 400 deaths put onto the NHS (along with those that inevitably visit hospital and recover) the NHS whilst under severe pressure is coping at the moment, after all of the over 50s and vulnerable have been vaccinated that pressure will have reduced massively. 7 hours ago, Albert said: It spiked as key areas were opened up. The weather alone did not achieve that. Equally, R_0 for the new strain is higher than the original, with further complicates things. I read over the weekend that the R rate is already down to around 0.7 - 1.0 depending where you are in the country. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-r-number-between-0-7-and-1-0-according-to-latest-estimate-12209460 By the time we hit spring not only will the weather improve and all of the over 50s and vulnerable have had their jabs but we will have been in lockdown for a further month or two, the R rate will inevitably be even lower. At that point the consequences of remaining in lockdown will far outweigh the benefits - this point has already been dealt with ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, alexxxxx said: Seems like there's growing evidence vaccines don't work as well on the south African variant... Reading that myself too. The article i read though does suggest that its still felt protection against severe disease (hospital/death) will be good, which ultimately is the goal here. If it just means you get a mild version of it, its still a massive benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, Sith Happens said: Reading that myself too. The article i read though does suggest that its still felt protection against severe disease (hospital/death) will be good, which ultimately is the goal here. If it just means you get a mild version of it, its still a massive benefit. Well im not quite sure that's what it meant. The median age of the people in the study was 30 hence its very unlikely that they'd get to hospital anyway. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/07/oxford-covid-jab-less-effective-against-south-african-variant-study-finds Experts seem to think that it's unlikely that the vaccines won't have a reasonable impact on it but it does make me a bit concerned. I think we will have to be careful with our surveillance if we aren't going to wait for single digit case rates before reopening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, maxjam said: Back at you - although I would suggest that my replies don't carry the same level of arrogance in stating that 'points have been dealt with'. You confuse a statement of fact with arrogance. The points have been discussed previously, what else are you expecting me to say? You seem are resistant to actually discussing data and evidence, and when it's brought up you usually 'get bored' and disappear from the discussion. Funny that. 21 minutes ago, maxjam said: Only really replying again because of this comment - which is a tactic you like to use when trying to wriggle out of a corner. Comparing 400 covid deaths to 00s terrorism is like comparing apples to oranges. Why don't we compare the 400 deaths to the numbers that die from entirely preventable smoking or drinking to excess? Or the 1k-2k that die on the roads each year? Why don't we shut the country down every winter to save 10k annual flu deaths? Callous as though it may sound 400 deaths over the course of a year does not justify remaining in lockdown. As for the pressure those 400 deaths put onto the NHS (along with those that inevitably visit hospital and recover) the NHS whilst under severe pressure is coping at the moment, after all of the over 50s and vulnerable have been vaccinated that pressure will have reduced massively. How are they apples and oranges. Huge sums of money have been plunged into the 'war on terror', liberties have been taken, never to be returned, and lives have indeed been ruined. As to your point about other deaths, it's odd you compare to the flu, given the age profile of those that die are similar. If you're already working with 'young and healthy' side of the argument here, the same should be applied there. As to the road toll, it is appalling, but society has accepted it as a cost for the use of such vehicles. As to the NHS, the pressure will be reduced massively, but it'll remain at an unacceptable level. There were impacts on preventative and elective medicine even with drastically lower numbers in the hospitals. 21 minutes ago, maxjam said: I read over the weekend that the R rate is already down to around 0.7 - 1.0 depending where you are in the country. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-r-number-between-0-7-and-1-0-according-to-latest-estimate-12209460 By the time we hit spring not only will the weather improve and all of the over 50s and vulnerable have had their jabs but we will have been in lockdown for a further month or two, the R rate will inevitably be even lower. At that point the consequences of remaining in lockdown will far outweigh the benefits - this point has already been dealt with ? ...that's kind of my point. You keep relaxing restrictions, but keep the reproduction number at least at 1 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, alexxxxx said: Well im not quite sure that's what it meant. The median age of the people in the study was 30 hence its very unlikely that they'd get to hospital anyway so I'm not sure they really know Experts seem to think that it's unlikely that the vaccines won't have a reasonable impact on it but it does make me a bit concerned. I think we will have to be careful with our surveillance if we aren't going to wait for single digit case rates before reopening. It was this from AZ “We do believe our vaccine could protect against severe disease, as neutralising antibody activity is equivalent to that of other Covid-19 vaccines that have demonstrated activity against more severe disease, particularly when the dosing interval is optimised to 8-12 weeks,” it said. It added that other immune responses, such as T-cells, may protect against disease. Initial data, it said, indicated those responses “may remain intact” against the South African variant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, Albert said: You confuse a statement of fact with arrogance. The points have been discussed previously, what else are you expecting me to say? You seem are resistant to actually discussing data and evidence, and when it's brought up you usually 'get bored' and disappear from the discussion. Funny that. How are they apples and oranges. Huge sums of money have been plunged into the 'war on terror', liberties have been taken, never to be returned, and lives have indeed been ruined. As to your point about other deaths, it's odd you compare to the flu, given the age profile of those that die are similar. If you're already working with 'young and healthy' side of the argument here, the same should be applied there. As to the road toll, it is appalling, but society has accepted it as a cost for the use of such vehicles. As to the NHS, the pressure will be reduced massively, but it'll remain at an unacceptable level. There were impacts on preventative and elective medicine even with drastically lower numbers in the hospitals. ...that's kind of my point. You keep relaxing restrictions, but keep the reproduction number at least at 1 or lower. So your saying no , lockdowns and restrictions in the U.K. should not be stopped once the over 50 s and the vulnerable have been vaccinated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Archied said: So your saying no , lockdowns and restrictions in the U.K. should not be stopped once the over 50 s and the vulnerable have been vaccinated No, they should be phased out in stages to keep the reproduction number below 1, for the reasons discussed. Depending on exactly what the situation is when they achieve that goal, it could end up looking very similar, but done in a planned manner, by adults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Albert said: No, they should be phased out in stages to keep the reproduction number below 1, for the reasons discussed. Depending on exactly what the situation is when they achieve that goal, it could end up looking very similar, but done in a planned manner, by adults. 6 minutes ago, Albert said: No, they should be phased out in stages to keep the reproduction number below 1, for the reasons discussed. Depending on exactly what the situation is when they achieve that goal, it could end up looking very similar, but done in a planned manner, by adults. So the r number is your criteria now, not deaths and serious illness , and your are ok for lockdowns and restrictions to stay until this is below 1 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Archied said: So the r number is your criteria , not deaths and serious illness , and your are ok for lockdowns and restrictions to stay until this is below 1 ? The R number already is below 1. Not sure what difference the R number makes once the over 50s are vaccinated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucker1884 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Archied said: Not really when the ever recurring theme is selfish people just want to get back in the pub and in the main by people whose greatest passion it seems is drinking indoors??♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 BBC report:- "The R number is below 1.0 in most of the UK, which means coronavirus infections may be falling slightly." So is a fall from 68,000 to 18,000 only considered a slight fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Watching Andrew marr show and had a crazy de deja vu moment flashback as the talk of vaccine centring around platforms and versions it took me back to Microsoft windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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