Coronavirus

[Gritstone Ram]

59 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth said it looks like the UK is heading to one of the worst death rates in Europe, wants to know why our death rate seems so poor, compared, for example, to Germany?

Well what a lucky example that was to pick, wonder why he didnt happen to pick Spain, Italy or Belgium?

I wonder if the rate has anything do to do with population or population density by any chance?

Yeah we’re not including all the care homes either, but that is the problem with comparing different countries. There isn’t a standard way of recording deaths or infections for each individual county. The only real way of judging is the death rates in each country compared to the seasonal averages over say the last 10 years. May be then it will give a good comparison against other countries. Russia are by far the best with 500 deaths from 60000 recorded infections which is pretty good going and they locked down well after us so where’s the method there Jonathan Ashworth??

I doubt there will be a true picture for a year or so.

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

About 17.2 seconds worth of research would tell you, no, no, it doesn't. 

It does however, have everything to do with the way countries have responded and been prepared.

Yet the same 17.2 seconds could have been used for him to do the research and and see that our death rate is currently below Belgium, Italy, Spain and France.

Wonder why he chose Germany as his example?

[maxjam]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

I wonder if the rate has anything do to do with population or population density by any chance?

 

33 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

About 17.2 seconds worth of research would tell you, no, no, it doesn't. 

It does however, have everything to do with the way countries have responded and been prepared.

 

Are you sure?  I've read a lot of articles that say population density is a factor.  It might not be the only one, but its an undeniable factor.

[Guest]

Just now, maxjam said:

 

 

Are you sure?  I've read a lot of articles that say population density is a factor.  It might not be the only one, but its an undeniable factor.

Nope, @Bob The Badger ruled it out within 20 seconds apparently. Not sure what these scientists are messing about at!

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I think the percentage of people being tested is the biggest variable - hence our cases:deaths is much higher than Germany. Population:deaths will most likely be due to how much it managed to spread before lockdown OR how deaths have been reported in each country.

Sweden not locked down but lower death/population than us.

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Keep wriggling.

So you dont think it does then?

[Ghost of Clough]

4 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Nope, @Bob The Badger ruled it out within 20 seconds apparently. Not sure what these scientists are messing about at!

London population: 8.982m
Scotland and Wales population: 8.590m

London population density: 5714 people per km2
Scotland and Wales population density: 85 people per km2

London deaths: 4211
Scotland and Wales deaths: roughly 2200

[Van der MoodHoover]

1 hour ago, Bob The Badger said:

About 17.2 seconds worth of research would tell you, no, no, it doesn't. 

It does however, have everything to do with the way countries have responded and been prepared.

One thing that really grates is spurious accuracy..........

 

...............and 96.72% of my friends agree with me! ?

[Stive Pesley]

An interesting tale from Vietnam

https://www.dw.com/en/how-vietnam-is-winning-its-war-on-coronavirus/a-52929967

268 confirmed cases, 223 recovered and 0 deaths

Some differences between the UK and Vietnam I know, and I can think of a big one straight up

[RadioactiveWaste]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

London population: 8.982m
Scotland and Wales population: 8.590m

London population density: 5714 people per km2
Scotland and Wales population density: 85 people per km2

London deaths: 4211
Scotland and Wales deaths: roughly 2200

1. It's in the "bleeding obviously" camp that a respiratory virus is likely to spread more readily in places where people are closer together.

2. There's a very high likelihood the amount of unidentified cases is high in all countries making accurate mortality to cases rates hard to establish, even through modelling.

3. Whilst things clearly aren't exactly flipping wonderful, and no doubt there are things that could've been done better (there will have to be a public enquiry, I can't conceive of something this big happening to the country without there being one) I do believe the government are trying to do their best.

4. My main issue is the communication/messaging from the government and public agencies. It's like "well this is what we can do right now, better tell the public that what we're doing is in fact the best and only thing it's appropriate to do". I'm also irritated by the use of the word "science" by politicians who don't really understand it, but believe if they say "it's science" then it's unchallenged fact, when the scientific research was a long way from a firm consensus.

5. Every death is a tragedy for someone.

6. We're mostly sitting it out in one of the world's wealthiest countries.

7. This will end. Probably several more weeks to be sure to avoid a second wave and second lockdown but the end us getting closer.

[Bob The Badger]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Yet the same 17.2 seconds could have been used for him to do the research and and see that our death rate is currently below Belgium, Italy, Spain and France.

Wonder why he chose Germany as his example?

 

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Yet the same 17.2 seconds could have been used for him to do the research and and see that our death rate is currently below Belgium, Italy, Spain and France.

Wonder why he chose Germany as his example?

 

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

London population: 8.982m
Scotland and Wales population: 8.590m

London population density: 5714 people per km2
Scotland and Wales population density: 85 people per km2

London deaths: 4211
Scotland and Wales deaths: roughly 2200

Ok, I was wrong to say density is not a factor, of course it is (although population is irrelevant).

But, it's nothing like as important as the way countries have reacted

And that is what we're talking about, and why Germany is being used as the example.

If density were the most important factor then Seoul would have been decimated. That was hit way on the same day as the US and before New York, but has had a fraction of the problems.

Similarly, Mumbai would be reeling now, as would Mexico City and Tokyo would have had way more deaths than it has.

You think it's a coincidence that South  Korea, Germany and Japan have all had way few deaths per 1,000?

Seriously?

No, it's because all 3 countries are incredibly well organized.

There are a bunch of cities waaaay more population dense than London that have cases but nothing like as many cases per 1,000.

If density were the determining factor, or even an overwhelming then that simply couldn't happen. You could figure out expected deaths using a simple mathematical formula.

The UK and US Governments made some monumental duck ups. Now maybe they did in Spain and Italy too, I honestly don't know I haven't been following their situations.

But to ignore that just because you lean one way politically (and I'm generalizing now, I don't follow who supports what party in this group) is patently absurd. 

[Grumpy Git]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Yet the same 17.2 seconds could have been used for him to do the research and and see that our death rate is currently below Belgium, Italy, Spain and France.

Wonder why he chose Germany as his example?

Why would you compare our shiite job with others who are equally as schiite (but had much less notice in the case of Italy)?

[B4ev6is]

Well north kora not even brothered with lockdown.

[Tamworthram]

3 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Well north kora not even brothered with lockdown.

They have a permanent lock down don’t they ?

[B4ev6is]

1 minute ago, Tamworthram said:

They have a permanent lock down don’t they ?

No they are moving around freely 

[Tamworthram]

2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Sweden not locked down but lower death/population than us.

Yes, lower than us but, not massively. Assuming we’re comparing apples with apples as to which deaths are included, our deaths per million of population is 267 whereas Sweden is 192. Norway, where I believe the lock down is much more severe than Sweden, the deaths per million is a low as 34.

I’m still convinced population density is a factor and both these countries densities are much much lower than the U.K. So, I’m not sure it’s entirely reasonable to compare us with Sweden (Germany yes) but you may be able to compare Sweden with Norway.

[Tamworthram]

7 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

No they are moving around freely 

Do any of us really know what’s going on at any time in North Korea?

[Coneheadjohn]

21 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Well north kora not even brothered with lockdown.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Bob The Badger said:

 

 

Ok, I was wrong to say density is not a factor, of course it is (although population is irrelevant).

But, it's nothing like as important as the way countries have reacted

And that is what we're talking about, and why Germany is being used as the example.

If density were the most important factor then Seoul would have been decimated. That was hit way on the same day as the US and before New York, but has had a fraction of the problems.

Similarly, Mumbai would be reeling now, as would Mexico City and Tokyo would have had way more deaths than it has.

You think it's a coincidence that South  Korea, Germany and Japan have all had way few deaths per 1,000?

Seriously?

No, it's because all 3 countries are incredibly well organized.

There are a bunch of cities waaaay more population dense than London that have cases but nothing like as many cases per 1,000.

If density were the determining factor, or even an overwhelming then that simply couldn't happen. You could figure out expected deaths using a simple mathematical formula.

The UK and US Governments made some monumental duck ups. Now maybe they did in Spain and Italy too, I honestly don't know I haven't been following their situations.

But to ignore that just because you lean one way politically (and I'm generalizing now, I don't follow who supports what party in this group) is patently absurd. 

Nothing to do with politics, I've said the Government have made mistakes but until I know what advice they were acting upon, who am I decide if they have made wrong decisions  or not.

 

[Angry Ram]

2 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

No they are moving around freely 

I don’t think they do anything freely..

They are pretty much cut off from the rest of the world.