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v Huddersfield (A) - Predictions

mozza

By mozza
in Derby County Forum

v Huddersfield  

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Ellafella

Ellafella

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Gritters said:

I'm not sure what all them dots are for or what they are on. Funny looking football pitch marked out wrong if you ask me. Do the dots mean we'll win. If so I'm all for the dots. 

TBH it looks like Andy Murrays serves at Wimbledon this year.

The top 2 charts show comparative attacking, defending and overall play ratios for both Huddersfield (left, in blue) and Derby. The first E-rating shows basically how much time Derby spend in attack compared with Huddersfield. The figure in brackets show how each compare and rank with the rest of the Championship; so whilst Huddersfield rank 10th in terms of attack-play, Derby rate 8th. They are averages so they are based on all games so far this season in the Championship; they are indicators therefore of how much each team tends to attack in each game (compared with defending). So Derby shade it compared with Huddersfield. A good sign. The next line gives the same for defence. It shows again that Derby have superior defending (on average) compared with Huddersfield. Derby are ranked 2nd n the Championship and Huddersfield are 9th. Derby are therefore on average far more robust than Huddersfield. The overall line gives a combined ranking for attacking and defending; Derby are ranked 4th and Huddersfield 9th. It strongly suggests that the underlying trend is for Derby to improve above their current League placing over the longer term whilst Huddersfield have perhaps been punching above their weight.

The bottom graphs show:

1. Shots per match against shots taken per goal scored.

2. Shots faced per match versus shots faced per goal conceded.

Each is a proxy indicator of quality of "shots produced" and quality of "shots faced". Each dot is a team in the Championship; the blue dot is Huddersfield and the black dot is Derby. 

Derby have an above-average number of shots per game (compared with all championship teams) BUT at present they have a poor finishing record (as they have a very high ratio of shots to goals). Huddersfield tend to have a low  number of shots per game and they have an average strike-rate ie they score about as often as most other teams given the number of shots they have. 

In terms of defending, both Derby and Huddersfield face on average a similar number of shots per game, BUT Derby concede LESS frequently on average than Huddersfield.

So overall, the pointers are, that if things go pretty much as they usually do, Derby are less likely to concede today than Huddersfield, but Huddersfield are slightly more likely to score. So statistically, a 1-1 draw is a high probability. HOWEVER, there is I believe also an indication that Derby are getting closer with goal efforts and so I think that I'd have a little wager on sneaking it 2-1 today. 

It's all about chance BUT there is always a proportion of predictability about chance. Given that Mac has had a little bit longer to work on Derby players minds, I think they will start to believe in themselves a little more. I think Tom Ince and Johnny Russell will be particular beneficiaries of growing confidence due to Mac's influence. Add to that Butterfield returning to his former Club and I think we will see a top drawer performance from him and maybe even a 20 yarder to seal a win. 

Get it now?:mellow:

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Gritstone Ram

Gritstone Ram

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

The top 2 charts show comparative attacking, defending and overall play ratios for both Huddersfield (left, in blue) and Derby. The first E-rating shows basically how much time Derby spend in attack compared with Huddersfield. The figure in brackets show how each compare and rank with the rest of the Championship; so whilst Huddersfield rank 10th in terms of attack-play, Derby rate 8th. They are averages so they are based on all games so far this season in the Championship; they are indicators therefore of how much each team tends to attack in each game (compared with defending). So Derby shade it compared with Huddersfield. A good sign. The next line gives the same for defence. It shows again that Derby have superior defending (on average) compared with Huddersfield. Derby are ranked 2nd n the Championship and Huddersfield are 9th. Derby are therefore on average far more robust than Huddersfield. The overall line gives a combined ranking for attacking and defending; Derby are ranked 4th and Huddersfield 9th. It strongly suggests that the underlying trend is for Derby to improve above their current League placing over the longer term whilst Huddersfield have perhaps been punching above their weight.

The bottom graphs show:

1. Shots per match against shots taken per goal scored.

2. Shots faced per match versus shots faced per goal conceded.

Each is a proxy indicator of quality of "shots produced" and quality of "shots faced". Each dot is a team in the Championship; the blue dot is Huddersfield and the black dot is Derby. 

Derby have an above-average number of shots per game (compared with all championship teams) BUT at present they have a poor finishing record (as they have a very high ratio of shots to goals). Huddersfield tend to have a low  number of shots per game and they have an average strike-rate ie they score about as often as most other teams given the number of shots they have. 

In terms of defending, both Derby and Huddersfield face on average a similar number of shots per game, BUT Derby concede LESS frequently on average than Huddersfield.

So overall, the pointers are, that if things go pretty much as they usually do, Derby are less likely to concede today than Huddersfield, but Huddersfield are slightly more likely to score. So statistically, a 1-1 draw is a high probability. HOWEVER, there is I believe also an indication that Derby are getting closer with goal efforts and so I think that I'd have a little wager on sneaking it 2-1 today. 

It's all about chance BUT there is always a proportion of predictability about chance. Given that Mac has had a little bit longer to work on Derby players minds, I think they will start to believe in themselves a little more. I think Tom Ince and Johnny Russell will be particular beneficiaries of growing confidence due to Mac's influence. Add to that Butterfield returning to his former Club and I think we will see a top drawer performance from him and maybe even a 20 yarder to seal a win. 

Get it now?:mellow:

Cheers fella. Are you going today? I suggest you watch the match and see that when we have a shot we can't hit a cows arse with a banjo. Also your stats don't show any split second wrong decision making by players.

The only statistic I'm interested in is 3 points at 16:50 this afternoon. 

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Ellafella

Ellafella

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Gritters said:

Cheers fella. Are you going today? I suggest you watch the match and see that when we have a shot we can't hit a cows arse with a banjo. Also your stats don't show any split second wrong decision making by players.

The only statistic I'm interested in is 3 points at 16:50 this afternoon. 

Sadly, won't be there; but I hope you have an above average day. :thumbsup:

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