The situation

[Albert]

With 3 games to play, it might be worth reviewing the situation. From here, with only 3 games left, it really is down to a game by game situation, and as such detailed stats won't be a huge amount of help.

What can be said though:

1. We are in the playoffs

2. Leicester are promoted

3. Burnley need 2 points from 3 to also be promoted

4. Even if Burnley only get 1 or less from here, we need 3 wins

That last points is of particular interesting in the sense as the possibilities, even if unlikely, that we go into the final game trying to beat dirty dirty Leeds to go up. As things stand Burnley have +3 goal difference on us, and if they win they are promoted regardless of anything else. As they can only increase their goal difference if they win, and it will go down if they lose, they can only end up with goal difference less than +3 (at most +1) if they finish the season on 87 points (the most we can manage). As we would need to win 3 to make that total, we would indeed have at least +3 from where we are, and as such we would have, if we both ended up on 87 points, at least a +2 goal difference lead over them, meaning if that is how it ended, we would go up.

Personally though we shouldn't be looking at our promotion rivals failing, but rather us succeeding, and for that reason I think the playoffs should be our primary concern, and on that front I have only one thing to say:

Don't finish 4th!

The last team to be promoted form 4th from Charlton in the 90s, the position seems cursed*, and put bluntly, promoted from 3rd looks a damn site better than promoted from 4th (though it didn't help us last time, thanks Billy).

*The actual reason that 4th struggles might be that they are generally a team that has failed in an automatic promotion bid, or maybe a team that was high up and dropped off. It might also be the extra pressure of facing a team closer to them (5th place instead of 6th) first up, but who knows. It could just be bad luck

All things said and done though, the best predictor of playoffs success seems to be performances against those teams during the league season, and if things end as they have we'd have a record that would read W4 D0 L2, which to be fair isn't bad. We'll have to see how it all goes in the coming 3 games for the other teams though.

Happy Easter.

[Curtains]

We will finish 3rd

3 vs 6 is us vs. Ipswich / Brighton/Forest / Reading/Bournemouth

Wigan vs QPR 4 v 5

Derby vs QPR. Final at Wembley.

[RamNut]

Don't finish 4th![/size]The last team to be promoted form 4th from Charlton in the 90s, the position seems cursed*

All those stats but in the end it all comes down to witchcraft.

[Boycie]

I'm not sure without seeing a graph or chart to look at.

[TroyDyer]

An Albert post without a graph is like Billy Davies without an eye bag.

[sage]

It looks like finish above QPR to avoid getting Wigan in the semis (or vice versa). Anyone who finishes 6th won't be as good as those two.

[LeedsCityRam]

I'm not in the least bit interested in which position from 3rd to 6th is the "luckiest". What I would say is that our chances of winning the playoffs would be increased by finishing 3rd. That would almost certainly mean we would avoid QPR & Wigan in the semi-finals, both of whom have a lot of residual Premiership quality in their ranks & are very capable of beating us over two legs. (Even in spite of our good record against them this season)

 

I would definitely favour us over two legs against Brighton/Reading/Ipswich/Bournemouth & in a one off game at Wembley against anyone in the playoffs.

[Carl Sagan]

I'm with LCR. Make sure of third place and we have to fancy ourselves against the also rans, currently passing 6th place between each other like a hot potato. Then it's a one-off against QPR or Wigan at Wembley. I think the big pitch suits our expansive attacking style and we should be confident.

 

Sometimes fate plays a role. After SMC spent the first 9 games at QPR before we whisked him away, I fancy it to be us vs them in the final: 'Arry versus Schteve. Fasten your seatbelts and hold on!

[Shuff264]

I'd rather play QPR than Wigan, Wigan are a well drilled side that knows how to defend and shut a team out - like they did to us and Arsenal at Wembley, QPR have the better players but dont play as a team and just seem in it for there own gain

[needles]

On what I've seen of the play-off sides, Wigan must be massive favourites. QPR and ourselves not much to choose between as distant 2nd favourites and whoever finishes 6th has a punchers outside chance.

 

Even needing Burnley to implode, I still think we've as much chance of automatic as we have winning at Wembley.

[Leicester Ram]

We're not favourites but we're not underdogs. Exactly how I want to go into them.

[AndyinLiverpool]

A win and a draw will do for 3rd.

 

We'll get one of those on Monday.

[Uptherams]

3rd is ours. We will play 6th, one of the weaker teams who all at the moment are not in good form. The first leg is away which is also a huge bonus to us. We can go into the first game and just attack, attack, attack. Play off final at Wembley I would take QPR as QPR have an older side, Wembley pitch is huge and I think we could run riot on a pitch like that. Bryson for me would be devastating to any opponent. Remember when he covered 15km in one game. 

[Lord_Ram]

 Remember when he covered 15km in one game. 

 

you mean one length of the wembley pitch, victoryyyyyyyyyyy

[StaffsRam]

We will finish 3rd

3 vs 6 is us vs. Ipswich / Brighton/Forest / Reading/Bournemouth

 

 

Agree with this - the comforting fact is that all of those sides are sh1te. 

 

A one-off final against either QPR or Wigan at Wembley is nothing to fear. Wembley will suit our expansive passing game.

[Mr. P]

So it looks like we got 3rd. Question is do we play the squad players for Leeds away and save our best players? Or do we keep the momentum going and play the first team and maintain our impressive run against them? I'm sure Billy Davies did it in the Burley years. Played a weaker Preston side against us for the last league game. And beat us in the playoffs.  

[EssendonRam]

All those stats but in the end it all comes down to witchcraft.

Unless it's the Illuminati....

[EssendonRam]

Maclaren made the point on Good Friday that Burnley will win automatic promotion. Prima facie, there seems to be little reason to doubt this.

And I concur with the point earlier that we should concentrate on how WE finish the season, not worrying about how they do.

But....and there's always a 'but' from someone like me who is oft criticised for over-analysing things...

Could this be a tactical ploy?

Teams who win promotion mathematically often have a let down the week after. If Burnley BELIEVE Derby have conceded, is there even a smidgin of a chance, they'll a let down? After all, they wouldn't have to be far off their game to lose to Wigan. Wigan are a good side more than capable of taking advantage.

If that happened, and we won against Barnsley, the gap would be reduced to 5 points with 6 to play for....

Nah...stuff it...just decided I am overanalysing it. Couldn't happen!

[Lord_Ram]

We'll in looking at burnley vs Wigan in two ways

 

1) burnley lose to Wigan and buckle under the pressure tonwin

 

2) burnley beat Wigan (I think if burnley are to get 2 points againstbipswich and reading, highly likely then this would be better anyway) Wigan take a knock of confidence, lose to qpr in the semis leaving us with a slow and sluggish midfield opposition to tear apart at wembley

[AndyB]

Wigan are capable of winning at Burnley. I suspect they're not that concerned that they'll finish below 5th though. Are they bothered whether they finish 4th of 5th? In short, are Wigan motivated now or just preparing for the play offs? They must be pretty tired with all the games they've played and they've still got 4 games left before the play offs. I fancy Burnley to win tomorrow.