notts_ram Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 7th or 8th, the league table is looking pretty much as I expected it to be regards the automatic places and playoffs with the exceptions of Wigan underperforming (though still have games in hand) and Burnley top of the pile. Still think teams like Forest, Leicester, QPR, Watford, Blackpool and Reading have far stronger squads than us so will be doing well to displace any from the final reckonings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valleyram Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 blackpool wont be in top 6 and neither will burnley , I think we are better than forest so can see no reason why we wont be in top 6 this season, in fact I will go as far as naming the top 6 qpr reading Leicester derby Watford forest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 I've had a look who from the top 7 have played each other and it makes interesting reading. Bear in mind we have played 5 of them, although a team in the top 7 can only play 6 games vs other top 7 teams. Blackpool have played 4 and Reading and Watford have played 3. They occupy the last 3 places of the top 7 Burnley have played 2 and both at home Forest and Leicest have only played 1 other top 7 team and QPR have played zero Probably worth looking at Wigan in this too as they probably would be up there if it wasn't for missing games. They've played 4 of the top 7: Forest, Leicester, Blackpool and Watford. So the sum it up, Burnely, Forest and Leicester have had an easy first quarter of the season and QPR have had a ridiculously easy start. The top 7 are gonna start dropping lots of points soon as they all start playing each other but teams below us are going have some easy games as they won't all be playing the top teams all the time. We've failed to get enough points in the first quarter of the season, but if was a hard first quarter. It was also a much harder quarter relative to other the top teams in the league. We really need to cash in now as if we are much off the pace at the halfway point, it will be difficult to see us clawing it back and we'll have probably been caught up by teams who've had hard starts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 According to this QPR have had a stupidly easy start - 2 games against teams currently in the top half of the table - we've had 7 and Barnsley have had 9. http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/vtophalf.html Of the top 8 we've played the most number of games against top half teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Interesting that Riot. As you say the next 10-12 games are crucial if we want to do something. Got to start winning consistently starting with Brum today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 We needed 19 points from 11 games to be halfway to the playoffs at the halfway point. It's now 18 from 9. Which works out at approximately 2.000 points per game. That would probably win you most leagues. After the last 2 games, the honeymoon period is over for Steve. We've got lots of winnable games coming up and we really wanna be in touch with top 6 by the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronnieronalde Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 We're not out of it by a long shot but when I look at things like this I don't just look at is a points total needed. I look at how many teams we've got to climb over to get there. We were right in amongst it two weeks ago but unfortunately the brilliant Watford result has been wasted. 1 point out of 6 is not the way to underline that win. That's why Birmingham and yesterday were pretty important for me. We had the chance to distance ourselves from the rest of the mid table. 4 points from those two games would have been brilliant and would really have backed up what we did at Watford and at home to Leeds. We've now gone down to 11th and have been dragged back again by Blackburn, Brighton and Wigan. They are really competitive sides who will also fancy their chances of putting together a run of results. I'm sure most would agree the top 3 are pretty much gone from us? Or would we argue we can still catch up those 13/14 points? Blackpool in fourth are now 8 points ahead of us and Burnley 14. We've got no momentum and we're playing catch up on teams that have experience of staying up there. I personally think that 4 of the play off teams are nailed on (QPR, Leicester, Burnley and Reading) and we're now fighting it out for the other 2. (Blackpool and Forest) Agree we've had a tough start, we've now lost to 5 of the top 6. Agree we've got a really winnable set of games coming up as well. I'm not throwing the towel in cos I'd expect at least 13 points from the next 6 games but I think even with those 13 points, we'll still be in 7th and we still won't have shaken off any of of the other challengers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfb Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Interesting point from you riot, and with the fact that Mac hasn't had long with the boys i expect us to improve, and also i hope that he will be adding some quality to the squad in Jan ( i cant see the board not backing him a bit having brought him in to improve us ?) So i'm hopeful for the future.... and where before under NC i was predicting finishing 12th (or worse), i feel we can make 8th or better depending on who's brought in..... and who goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rynny Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 We're not out of it by a long shot but when I look at things like this I don't just look at is a points total needed. I look at how many teams we've got to climb over to get there. We were right in amongst it two weeks ago but unfortunately the brilliant Watford result has been wasted. 1 point out of 6 is not the way to underline that win. That's why Birmingham and yesterday were pretty important for me. We had the chance to distance ourselves from the rest of the mid table. 4 points from those two games would have been brilliant and would really have backed up what we did at Watford and at home to Leeds. We've now gone down to 11th and have been dragged back again by Blackburn, Brighton and Wigan. They are really competitive sides who will also fancy their chances of putting together a run of results. I'm sure most would agree the top 3 are pretty much gone from us? Or would we argue we can still catch up those 13/14 points? Blackpool in fourth are now 8 points ahead of us and Burnley 14. We've got no momentum and we're playing catch up on teams that have experience of staying up there. I personally think that 4 of the play off teams are nailed on (QPR, Leicester, Burnley and Reading) and we're now fighting it out for the other 2. (Blackpool and Forest) Agree we've had a tough start, we've now lost to 5 of the top 6. Agree we've got a really winnable set of games coming up as well. I'm not throwing the towel in cos I'd expect at least 13 points from the next 6 games but I think even with those 13 points, we'll still be in 7th and we still won't have shaken off any of of the other challengers.I wouldn't say the top 3 are gone for us, there is often a team in the top 6 that fall away drastically (recently Boro) and there is often a team that it clicks for around this period (sometimes over xmas) that put a run together and challenge for top 6/2 come the end of the season. We have done it ourselves before under TBE. For me it is, still, too son to be saying any definites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddie Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Somewhere between where we are now and about 5th, I reckon. This is shaping up to be yet another insane season where there will be no clearly defined 'best 6 teams'. There might be 2 or 3 who are a cut above the rest, but there are so many sides who are 'much of a muchness'. I think that between 5th and 11th there will still be less than a handful of points by the end of the year - in other words, it'll all be up for grabs. We need to stay there or thereabouts - then have a decent transfer window, sign the key players we require (ahem), then kick on. The only problem with that is, everyone else in our position will be thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormantonRam Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Outside the top 6 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOB BIGGS Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Outside the top 6 IMO. At present you are right....but with the Board/Investors about to unveil millions of pounds for new players in January, it should transform the team in the New Year. Whether the new players will enable us to play "catch up" remains to be seen but I would have thought that we will have at least 2 new quality players [total about £3m] and then with Hendrick, Coutts and Russell to return to the squad, we should be in with a shout for the play offs. McLaren is expected to get more out of the current squad in the meantime. I'm not sure that's fair on him but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormantonRam Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 It remains to be seen whether GSE will give him the funds, that are needed to get the club in the Top 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 We needed 19 points from 11 games to be halfway to the playoffs at the halfway point. It's now 18 from 9. Which works out at approximately 2.000 points per game. That would probably win you most leagues. After the last 2 games, the honeymoon period is over for Steve. We've got lots of winnable games coming up and we really wanna be in touch with top 6 by the end of the year. If this season pans out like last we would need less than the 74 points your calculations indicate. Last season 6th place after 14 games was 23 and 68 were needed to reach the play-offs. The championship table has been contracting and I think again this year will be a low 6th place points requitement - between 68 and 71 points. 16 points between now and Christmas and I reckon we will be very well placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think the playoffs are beyond us to be honest.. We're not consistant enough.. People are looking at that Watford game as some sort of benchmark as to where we are.. And totally ignoring the poor results like drawing at home to Brum, Blackburn and Ipswich.. We'll compete well.. I don't think we're a bad side and we'll finish with a positive GD.. I can't see us getting really hammered by anyone (4 goals plus) like a few seasons ago.. But we'll struggle to put runs together.. We'll pick up more disappointing draws at home and we'll lose games away where you'd expect us to get something.. At least the top sides can bounce back from strange results (like losing to Sheff Wed or Doncaster) and then win 3 in a row.. I just can't% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think the playoffs are beyond us to be honest.. We're not consistant enough.. People are looking at that Watford game as some sort of benchmark as to where we are.. And totally ignoring the poor results like drawing at home to Brum, Blackburn and Ipswich.. We'll compete well.. I don't think we're a bad side and we'll finish with a positive GD.. I can't see us getting really hammered by anyone (4 goals plus) like a few seasons ago.. But we'll struggle to put runs together.. We'll pick up more disappointing draws at home and we'll lose games away where you'd expect us to get something.. At least the top sides can bounce back from strange results (like losing to Sheff Wed or Doncaster) and then win 3 in a row.. I just can't% I agree to a point but there are far too many teams in the same predicament. Burnley, Leicester, QPR look strong, Blackpool continue to surprise and Wigan fairly 'steady' apart from that, the rest of the teams look erratic. Reading have been poor recently that was capped off by being slaughtered by a side that hadn't won this season Watford fans are boo'ing there side nearly every game, and now want Zola gone. Forest lost 1 player in their defence and the flood gates opened, not to mention their non-goalscoring strikers. Leeds are a poor side, grinding wins down against the lower side - efficient more than anything else. Blackburn look capable and when Brighton get key players back, they are to. but, I don't think it's totally unreasonable we could end up in the play-offs - infact I don't think we're as bad as the teams around us. We know where we're coming unstuck, we know what we can do - knowing your faults is half the battle, if we improve that backline then I think we will stand a very good chance, goals will not become an issue IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 I agree to a point but there are far too many teams in the same predicament. Burnley, Leicester, QPR look strong, Blackpool continue to surprise and Wigan fairly 'steady' apart from that, the rest of the teams look erratic. Reading have been poor recently that was capped off by being slaughtered by a side that hadn't won this season Watford fans are boo'ing there side nearly every game, and now want Zola gone. Forest lost 1 player in their defence and the flood gates opened, not to mention their non-goalscoring strikers. Leeds are a poor side, grinding wins down against the lower side - efficient more than anything else. Blackburn look capable and when Brighton get key players back, they are to. but, I don't think it's totally unreasonable we could end up in the play-offs - infact I don't think we're as bad as the teams around us. We know where we're coming unstuck, we know what we can do - knowing your faults is half the battle, if we improve that backline then I think we will stand a very good chance, goals will not become an issue IMO We'l probably see most the top teams go on stinking runs now with the mid-table teams picking up stacks of points and by end of the year we'll be 2 points off playoffs and 3 points of relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mostyn6 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 At present you are right....but with the Board/Investors about to unveil millions of pounds for new players in January, it should transform the team in the New Year. Whether the new players will enable us to play "catch up" remains to be seen but I would have thought that we will have at least 2 new quality players [total about £3m] and then with Hendrick, Coutts and Russell to return to the squad, we should be in with a shout for the play offs. McLaren is expected to get more out of the current squad in the meantime. I'm not sure that's fair on him but we'll see. of course that's fair, his predeccessor was removed to improve three things, one of them being the coaching of players. McClaren was appointed as it was decided his coaching of players is better than the person he replaced. If McClaren cannot get better out of the current squad, then he's no better than the previous manager IMO. As it happens, I believe he will get more out of them, but just saying that I disagree it's unfair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jourdan Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I don't think the play-offs are beyond us, not mathematically at least. We're just under a third of the way through the season, so there is plenty to play for. I don't think there is any reason for us to feel as though competing for promotion is beyond us. The division is still very much wide open and we should take heart in how teams like Blackpool and Burnley have challenged the status quo so far this season. I think our Christmas and New Year run-in would look favourable if it weren't for the fact we play eight games in 31 days before we play in the third round of the FA Cup, which is probably going to take its toll and stretch our squad more than we realise. There are nine games before the turn of the year and I think we have to be looking at 15 points as a minimum to maintain our position and that is probably a fair estimate of where we will be. But if we want to make up ground on the top six - bear in mind we're already four points adrift - we are probably going to have to pick up nearer 20 points out of 27. I wasn't in favour of McClaren's appointment to begin with. I was worried that his recent track record would weigh down on him and that the decision just looked like a miscalculation and doomed to fail. To be honest, I still have grave doubts about whether he can take us forward and get the best out of this group of players. He is an accomplished coach but when you get into a cycle of failure, it's something that is hard to shake. Although I think a change was necessary, on current evidence, I don't think we are going to bear the fruits of that change this season. It's too much of an ask for McClaren and his coaching set-up to bridge that gap in consistency and quality just yet. That said, as others have alluded to, given some investment in January, this season is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Thought I'd update this thread as the league table seems to be changing now. The mid-table teams are all catching up now at the early pace setters drop points as they have to play each other. Originally we needed 19 points from 11 games to be halfway to 74 points at the halfway point of the season. That became 18 from 9. We now need 12 from December's 7 games to be right on track. We should be making this now as 4 of our games are vs teams in bottom 7. With players returning from injuries and a couple of good aquisitions, you have to think the second half of the season will be at least as good as the first. I don't think it's getting carried away to say we should make the playoffs this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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