Ramble On Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 7th in my humble opinion. Come on you super rams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Winning one away game a month for the rest of the season will give us ten or eleven wins away. That should be ample for a top six side Only if we win the majority of our home games Having said that if we win 14 and draw 13 I think we will be in the playoffs - that's roughly 2 wins and 2 draws a month for the rest of the season. Suddenly sounds a bit less probable but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I think your logic is flawed. Last season after 12 games 6th place was 20 points. Projected over the season it would have been 80 points for playoffs and as you point out this didn't happen. Your maths is flawed. 20 points from 12 games equates to 77 over the season. At this point last season the top 6 had 20-25 points and everyone inside it had lost 3 or 4 games already (except for Blackburn, 5th on 20 pts with 2 defeats). This year it's 22-29 points with Fester and Reading having lost 2, but the others 0 or 1. A quarter of the season gone and with sixth place 2 points higher than last time, I admit you could argue that the final level for 6th place might be 4x2=8 points higher (76), but with this year's top 6 far harder to beat, I think they're less likely to drop points and 80 really will be the minimum. Of course, only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Your maths is flawed. 20 points from 12 games equates to 77 over the season. At this point last season the top 6 had 20-25 points and everyone inside it had lost 3 or 4 games already (except for Blackburn, 5th on 20 pts with 2 defeats). This year it's 22-29 points with Fester and Reading having lost 2, but the others 0 or 1. A quarter of the season gone and with sixth place 2 points higher than last time, I admit you could argue that the final level for 6th place might be 4x2=8 points higher (76), but with this year's top 6 far harder to beat, I think they're less likely to drop points and 80 really will be the minimum. Of course, only time will tell.I don't think the current top 6 are any better than in some of the past 15 years of the Championship. The average 6th place spot is around 75 points and it has never reached 80 points. Here's a graph of the past 15 seasons"http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dUlX4_U1uIg/UgKGm91GmDI/AAAAAAAAAVA/uHMAGzc8kis/s1600/Championship" alt="Championship"> I see no reasons why this year would be a record breaking year at all. It's not too much higher than last season or the season before at this point. I think that as we get upto and through Christmas and new year we will see results that shock, and maybe a run out together by a couple of teams which will alter the shape of the table considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martyn Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 The average 6th place spot is around 75 points and it has never reached 80 points. Here's a graph of the past 15 seasons Don't you go usurping my graphs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete2 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Wins against Leeds and Waford are such good results we cant really say what Maclaren will do. Also we have played 4 of the top 6 alreday so I guess wee had a tougre start to the season than average. 18 from 12 isnt great (thats 69 at end of season I spose enough last year to get us into the top 6 tho ) but if we improve under Maclaren I guess a top 6 isnt impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Wins against Leeds and Waford are such good results we cant really say what McClaren will do. Also we have played 4 of the top 6 alreday so I guess wee had a tougre start to the season than average. 18 from 12 isnt great (thats 69 at end of season I spose enough last year to get us into the top 6 tho ) but if we improve under McClaren I guess a top 6 isnt impossible. As you say we have played 4 out of the top 6 already, only 8 more games against the current top 6. Which means out of the next 12 games I think we only have two or three against the current top 6 which could lead to a healthier points return. If we get 6 wins out of our next 11 games we would be on at least 36 points - and a projected season total of at least 72 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cisse Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 We'll end up playing at Wembley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete2 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 In fact weve played 5 out of the top 7, losing 4 and winning 1. And we are 8th so really we have had a tough start to the season. Weve won 4 out of the 7 games weve played against teams below us , drawing the other 3 . Obviously if we keep that up we will be in the mix, as there will be 30 games against teams currently below us so 2.14 points per game against them will give us 64 points plus 8 points from the 7 teams above us gives 72 points. It may not matter that we struggle aginst the teams above us so long as we remain ruthless against the teams below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrivateDerby Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Just a quick question about play offs... Say if we DID get in the top six, do ST holders get priority? Including at Wembley? I know it's a daft question, but do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 In fact weve played 5 out of the top 7, losing 4 and winning 1. And we are 8th so really we have had a tough start to the season. Weve won 4 out of the 7 games weve played against teams below us , drawing the other 3 . Obviously if we keep that up we will be in the mix, as there will be 30 games against teams currently below us so 2.14 points per game against them will give us 64 points plus 8 points from the 7 teams above us gives 72 points. It may not matter that we struggle aginst the teams above us so long as we remain ruthless against the teams below us. It's better than you think. We will play 32 games against teams currently below us. Over the whole season we will play 14 games against the current top 7 - at current points against them that 0.6 points per game which gives us 8 points But we will have 32 games against teams below us at 2.14 points per game gives us 68 points A total of 76 points (which I think is above the highest ever 6th place total of 75) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodleyRam Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 It's better than you think. We will play 32 games against teams currently below us. Over the whole season we will play 14 games against the current top 7 - at current points against them that 0.6 points per game which gives us 8 points But we will have 32 games against teams below us at 2.14 points per game gives us 68 points A total of 76 points (which I think is above the highest ever 6th place total of 75) So it's nailed on then, shall I put the jaffa cakes on ice?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 By xmas i think keogh and bucko will be playing the front and back end of a pantomime horse. Nacer barazite will be back as joseph, and adam smith will play mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 All this talk about promotion like none of us have Premaphobia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BondJovi Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 All this talk about promotion like none of us have Premaphobia Can't do any worse. And at least we may actually have someone leading us who wants to be there. I am all for deluded excitement! Nothin's gonna stop us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Can't do any worse. And at least we may actually have someone leading us who wants to be there. I am all for deluded excitement! Nothin's gonna stop us! Open day v Liverpool away you'll be as nervous as a terrorist at an airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 What a horrible expression..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyB Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I don't think we currently have a squad capable of being top 6 after 46 games. I fear injuries and suspensions will catch up with us. Based on players fit and available at the moment playing 433 we don't have decent cover at goalkeeper, centre back, left back, centre midfield or winger. If we lose any of Grant, Keogh, Wisdom, Forsyth, Eustace, Bryson, Hughes or Ward to injury or suspension we're struggling to replace them. I fear we'll finish around 8th to 10th. However, a good run without injuries and suspensions and we could sneak top 6. Here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srg Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Just a quick question about play offs... Say if we DID get in the top six, do ST holders get priority? Including at Wembley? I know it's a daft question, but do we? Behind those that pay for Anorak membership, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Behind those that pay for Anorak membership, yes. That will be me then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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