TomTom92

50 minutes ago, Norman said:

What am I reading? I know we've all been through some right bottle jobs following Derby, but come on.

Barnsley ruled themselves out yesterday.

Peterborough have a horrifc run of games in 21 days and rely on a high energy game. 

Bolton really struggled to beat a poor Bristol Rovers team and haven't taken any more points than us over the last 5 games - and we've had to navigate Portsmouth, Blackpool, and Bolton themselves in that time.

Wycombe are playing a final this evening....beat them and it leaves 2 home games and Cambridge away. 

Honestly, I can see us winning the next 2, and Bolton drawing against Portsmouth, and it all being all being effectively over. Only 6 days to wait.

It would offer people like myself more optimism if we controlled matches. Not going to go down the Paul Warne pile on because he’s got us to 2nd playing Warneball. But there hasn’t been many matches this season were I’ve watched us and gone this will be easy.

Just as you slip in to a version of comfortable we go and poo the bed like we did against Northampton. 
 
Of course I’d rather be in our shoes than Bolton/Posh’s but then again I’d rather be in Portsmouth’s shoes which is pretty much 1 win away from promotion.

I do think it will be a bad job if we can’t beat Wycombe with their cup final considered. But knowing Derby like we do, personally I can’t see us winning all 4 which does open the door. Which is were people’s worries like my own come in.

Horrible that all the pressure is back on us.

Then we have the unsettling matter of Posh and all their matches in hand so we don’t know whether they’re looking good or not.

Personally think Leyton Orient will be tougher than Wycombe. Would feel sick if we missed out on 92/91 points.

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🕯️ Extra time 🕯️  

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think kids or today call it manifestation.

1 minute ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

For what its worth, I think we will lose to Wycombe and win the last 3, finishing on 88 points.

It could, just, be enough.

3 wins puts us on 91 points which should see us up. But Bolton are starting to turn the heat up and I’ve got a nasty feeling they’ll win their last 3. Need Pompey to do a job on them.

The most important match this next week is Bolton v Portsmouth. If Bolton win that the i think they’ll pip us to the post.

Bristol Rovers need a strong dose of quantuma.

Kangaroo skin boots? Will put a spring in our step at least.

Think it’s becoming more obvious that a super league or rules to benefit the top 6 will be ramped up in the next few years. 
 
PL don’t dare go against the big clubs because they want to be ‘the best with the best players’. 
 
EFL is that in the mud compared to PL that no PL clubs will want to help out the pyramid and instead will cross their toes and hope they never go down again. Or if they do parachute payments will allow them to go back up.

Sad times for the English game.

2 minutes ago, Srg said:

It's a shame Bolton's match v Posh isn't sooner when it potentially has more riding on it.

Agreed, stinks of Barnsley v Posh last season. Just got to make sure going in to the last match we're in the top 2. Carlisle will be on the beach and without accusing anybody of foul play, I imagine Simmo would quite like to see us up.

1 hour ago, Kernow said:

Looking at Bolton’s fixtures, anything less than 10 points from their last 5 is a slip up from them.

Rovers away and Shrewsbury & Vale at home should be 9 points.

They should be able to get 1 point minimum from Portsmouth at home and Peterborough away. After last night, Portsmouth may be happy for a point again. They could go up in the Bolton game, but if they don’t lose then Bolton won’t catch them and they’re as good as up anyway.

If we aren’t already up by the Carlisle game, hopefully Peterborough are 3 points behind us too. If they have any chance of getting top 2, they’ll give Bolton a much harder game than if they’re already confirmed in the play-offs.

That means 10 points should be more than enough for us, or 9 points and hope we can rely on goal difference. Bolton winning the rest of their games would mean 6 wins in a row which they haven’t done all season. They also seem to go missing in “big” games and although they can score a lot, they don’t always follow that up with another good performance.

I’d be surprised if 4 wins are necessary for us to get over the line, but I think if we don’t manage to win 3 of the 4 then it won’t be enough. I think we’ll do it, but only just.

Agree with all of this.

If Posh have nothing to play for then Bolton have struck lucky playing a good team at exactly the right time.

Got to hope Bolton don't go on their best run of the season and to be honest if we can't beat Wycombe who will either be hungover or gutted at losing a final with us having a week to prepare then its a bad job. Carlisle is a slam dunk, so just need to win at least one of Leyton Orient or Cambridge.

If we can't get 9 points out of our next 4 matches then we'll only have ourselves to blame.

If we do the above and Bolton or Posh etc. go on their best run of the season under the pressures we're all experiencing to pip us to the post then fair play to them. 

I do think looking on paper Bolton do have quite a kind run in apart from Pompey but they only need to throw in a Northampton like performance and not beat Pompey and its all but over for them.

Peterborough are playing two matches a week between now and the end of the season and Barnsley are in last chance saloon with failure to beat Charlton on sat surely putting them to the sword. 

Solid point. We can talk about if, buts and maybes but to go to the leaders and match them toe to toe in that weather is some effort. 
 
Football is an unpredictable beast but we have 4 winnable matches now. We’d be desperately unlucky for Bolton, Posh and Barnsley not to drop anymore points. 
 
Let’s enjoy Saturday off and hopefully a couple of teams do us a favour.

Think it'll be 1-0 Pompey unfortunately. 

We don't control games and our fire power is pretty much limited to our starting XI so if that gets negated then we don't have anyone to come off the bench and steal us the points. 

If i was offered a boring 0-0 i'd snap your hands off. 

Portsmouth 1 - 0 Derby 

27 minutes ago, SSD said:

I'm looking at the points target for 2nd being 90.

 

Derby need 3 wins from 5.

Bolton need 5 wins from 6.

Peterborough and Barnsley need 6 wins from 7.

Bolton playing Peterborough on the final day. Peterborough have got 8 matches due to their cup final. Barnsley have also got Portsmouth on their run in. I can't see how Derby can throw this one away. We'd have to go on a real stinker of a run. With the defensive resilience in the team, I think we'll fight over the line, 1-0 all the way 😎

I think the only pessimistic view you can take on Bolton’s run in is that Bristol look on the beach. Pompey could be all but up by the time they play them and posh might have nothing to play for. 
 
90 points will be enough with a hard earned draw on Tuesday being a real bonus.

Morning headline suggestion: Adam’s Ram Olé

Great win. 
 
Fought to the end and the results going our way is a bonus. Fully expect a reality check on Tuesday but let’s see how others get on Monday.

We’ll be lucky to get a point against you guys. Need a win tomorrow to keep the dream alive. Then hopefully Tuesday can be a free hit.

Derby 1-0 Blackpool 

Own goal

16 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

With Bird not ready, Adams apparently injured, whatever happened to Fornah, Hourihane looks nailed on to start.

Adams is injured? Missed that bit of news ffs.

22 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

The good thing about this is there seems no way we can play a back 3 against Blackpool, Pompey or Wycombe. The only problem is, who plays right back? Ward? Wilson? Smith? How close is Rooney to a return? Tother side, do we start Elder or Sibs?

That’s the million dollar question. 
  
Personally anyone but Ward for right back. Think Wilson would be my preferred choice purely because Smith at right back increases the chances of Hourihane starting.

Left back may have to be Elder. Means Sibley can assist us in the final third seeing as we were short in that area.
 

He made a mistake, he’s only human. 
 
Is it his fault that Rooney, Nyambe Forsyth are injured? Is it his fault that Ward and Wilson look shakey at right back? 
 
He should know better and it has left us in a bit of a pickle. But as others have alluded to, he’s hardly been prime Maldini. 
 
Not too long ago if he’d have got a 3 match ban nobody would’ve batted an eye lid. 
 
Ultimately we’re better off with him available, especially with our injury problems. He probably hasn’t earnt his corn and he made a mistake. But he won’t be the first or the last. 
 
He may come back for Leyton Orient and help us win our last 3.

23 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I think we probably only need four wins but that doesn’t fill me with much more confidence. One thing is petty much certain, the first one needs to come on Friday.

Yep regards Friday. 
 
Should be beating Cambridge and Carlisle so just need to win against a cup final tired Wycombe or Leyton Orient. 

As @MACKWORTHRAM states by Wycombe we could have Gayle, Barkz and Collins available. Just need NML’s injury to not be serious and we’re still in with a chance. 

Didn’t watch the match but by all accounts we had a stinker. 
 
Feel low about it all at the moment. But despite the defeat my bigger concern is our injury list. 
 
Sounds like we could have a couple back for the Wycombe match but we’ve got to play 2 matches before then. If NML is out for the season then we’re done for.

Using boring logic, if we win 4 out of our 6 matches it takes us to 90 points. Means one of the chasing pack would need to win 6 out of 7 to overtake us. Some effort if that happens.

Think we need a win on Friday whether it’s a lucky win or deserved. Then using my logic above we need to win 3 out of the last 4. Can’t see us getting more than a point at Pompey.