TheTinMan

I'd be taking a bit of the 3/1 on offer for Plymouth to be relegated. Birmingham have been in this position before and got out, I recall one where they scored two very late goals having looked buried. They both have tough last games but I'd rather be playing a Norwich side who are basically in the playoffs with their superior GD to playing Hull who are the ones chasing. Birmingham do need a win and if they get it so do Plymouth. 

Saying all of that Wednesday and Blackburn are not out of this by a long way. Both need a point to be sure but both have tricky away games. Wins for Plymouth and Birmingham who are at least both at home would see one of those two go down instead if they were to lose. 

I might be in the minority but I wouldn't be bothered if Wildsmith left. He's an okay keeper, probably better than Vickers but in the grand scheme of things most keepers are a much of a muchness at this level and there will be plenty available similar to Wildsmith. If you go back through the keepers we've had since Roos took over from Carson, none of them will live long in my memory. 

The XG thing suggests we were actually more clinical than you'd think and that creating the chances was the issue not taking them. I'm not sure what % of our goals came from set pieces and whether they have a lower expected goal in the XG model maybe, that could be skewing things a bit because we didn't seem to be very clinical at times.

The thing I noticed from last seasons table is Ipswich finished 2nd but they scored 101 goals vs 80 odd for Plymouth and Sheff Wednesday and they had the best defence too. They drew way too many games and should probably have walked the league last season. Our goals scored this season is less than Sheff Wednesday or Plymouth managed and they've both been in a struggle this season. Our defence looks good this season but is the same as what Sheff Wednesday conceded last season and slightly worse than Ipswich. Its a small sample but you'd definitely say from the GD we're looking at a Plymouth/Sheff Wednesday type  of season without significant squad improvement.  

Probably goes without saying but we need to be looking in the goal scoring department. Defensively we're the best in the league so just adding some depth there so we actually have the option of playing with 3 CB's if Warne wants, something he wasn't really afforded at times. LB needs sorting out because Sibley as good as he's tried will get found out there if he's still around, can Elder stay fit enough? The centre of midfield plays a big part in keeping the defensive side solid and Adams looks a no brainer if we can get him, can we I don't know? Another in there probably needed too. Its the attacking options. Nat is fine but we've done well to keep him as fit as we have this season and he's not getting any younger. Collins might do ok as a backup option but the likes of Waggy and Wash I can't see it. Trouble is everyone is in the market for a goal scorer as we found this season trying to replace McGoldrick. 

We need a lot more going forwards. We know we've lost Bird already and on everything we know most of the strikers we have aren't the answer. We'll do well to get a full season out of Nat again too. I dont see enough goals in the side currently to do anything other than survive narrowly (or go down) 

I have a hunch we might be better suited to the Championship and the better quality opposition. We don't under Warne look like breaking down sides we're expected to dominate and today was no exception. What we have done well by and large is be competitive against the better sides in this league. Its not pretty, its not really how I want us to play but if it gets results its a results business not an art gallery. 

Curtis Nelson 10

Callum Elder 5
Joe Ward 6
Sonny Bradley 5
Josh Vickers 5
Kane Wilson 6
Martyn Waghorn 5
Conor Washington 5
Tyrese Fornah 5
Elliot Embleton - cant really rate him
Ryan Nyambe 6
Tyreece John-Jules 5

Winter:

Ebou Adams 9
Dwight Gayle 6
Corey Blackett-Taylor 5
Max Bird - doesnt really feel right rating him as it wasn't really a signing. 

I think a lot of them haven't been given a chance to score higher due to injuries etc and for some of them that was predictable given their profiles. Most of them have played a part in this promotion to which they deserve credit but overall quite a lot of so-so signings. Nelson the obvious exception from the summer. 

Managed to keep a clean sheet midweek with little attacking threat so obviously the extra man in defence makes sense 

RE Warne. I think you have to give him the start of the season if we get promoted. I'm not a fan, I think he's fine at this level of being competitive but not a long-term solution. But it would be a big call to replace him and not one I see Clowes making. If we don't get promoted he's had 2 bites at the cherry, close but no cigar this time. Again I don't see Clowes replacing him but I think Warne's position becomes very tricky next season if we mess this up, there is a good chunk of the crowd not with him now and I think that turns to an overwhelming majority next season if we're still in League 1. We could do without that atmosphere if nothing else. 

Rosenior's been given a kings ransom at Hull to be fair. They are probably underachieving a bit. Don't get me wrong I'm glad he got a nice job but he's been very well backed. 

The bottom line as plenty have said is we win these three games we probably get promoted. We don't and we won't. If we can't having got into this position that doesn't come down to ability and not being good enough. You don't get to 90 odd points through not being good enough. That comes down to the mentality of being able to win routine games at this stage of the season and a little bit of luck but to be honest luck hasn't really deserted us lately, particularly in the Reading win. This is all on us . 

I've always thought psychologically the pressure is more on when you have something to lose. Some people saw yesterday as a point gained, not a theory I subscribe to myself. If we were in Bolton or Posh's position with that game yesterday then a draw is a disaster, you go in with the mindset beforehand that every game is a must win. Even the games at the weekend for both of them which are tricky, if they get a point that probably is going to end up 2 dropped not 1 gained. I just don't see a scenario where that point yesterday gets us promoted unless we pip Posh on GD. We'd have been no worse off for the loss and significantly better off for going for the win. We need this must win mindset from now on. There's a psychological thing about losing being the worst scenario but mathematically unless you are playing a 6 pointer then losing is marginally worse than a draw, both are significantly worse than a win. 

This weekend is massive. If Bolton and Peterborough can both muster up wins from tricky games even if we win we're in deep bother. I said a few weeks ago re that Bolton/Peterborough final game its likely a draw will be no good to either side so that almost certainly won't happen as an outcome. 

The other thing with Sibley is he's not a LB. But what happened to the LB Warne put all his hopes and dreams into? I'm not talking about Fozzy here either we shouldn't be relying on Fozzy at his age in this system at LB. Callum bloody Elder was another bad signing in my book along with Wash and Bradley etc 

2 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Expect changes on Saturday. Warne says “Some of our lads look jaded “. 

FFS they've just had 7 days off. 

Weren't good enough or didn't have the bottle? Because we were good enough against Bolton and Pompey. We got ourselves into a very healthy position. Time after time this season when they have the weight of expectation on them against a (respectfully) lesser side like Northampton or Wycombe they fold. 

I don't think Bolton are the dangers now or won't be unless they beat Pompey. But we've let Peterborough in and they have got their tails up big time following their day at Wembley. Their fixtures prior to that last game you'd be surprised if they were dropping any points which means we're going to the last day one way or another. 

Its almost like even though none of that mob remain bar Fozzy, that the spirit of those bottled playoff finals somehow lives on in the club, even under new ownership. This is what Mel Morris actually meant about the 'Derby way' 

1 minute ago, Paultheram said:

We haven’t lost tonight!

This is a point gained and I’m sure there are going to be plenty more twists and turns before the end of season.

We have got barks (more fitness), bird and ward most likely back for the next game

 

we will still do this!

Its not a point gained in my eyes its just cancelling out the point I didn't expect at Portsmouth. 

Peterborough let right back into the mix after tonight too. They've got a very favourable run of games before that final one against Bolton. One positive is I believe Pompey will be mathematically promoted if they beat Bolton at the weekend so does give them some incentive to go for the 3 points. 

Posh might have nothing to play for on that last day but even then you'd take a last day against Carlisle at home over a last day away at Posh every day of the week wouldn't you? Just have to hope we're still in front by then. 

There is of course a scenario where a draw is no good to Posh or Bolton on that last game anyway to catch us which probably increases the chances of a Bolton win slightly also? 

Realistically Peterborough should be going into that last game with at least the possibility of overhauling Bolton into 3rd to play for and that alone should be some incentive given the playoff game against the 6th team is likely to be a bit easier than playing Barnsley presumably. 

It is very much in our hands now. Before the Bolton game I'd have said our hardest ones left were them, Blackpool and Pompey and we've come through those with 7pts. Trouble is for every game like those we throw in a Northampton so who knows. I said on one of the other topics given Bolton's fixtures, if they do get promoted it'll mean two things have happened. One would be they've gone on a storming run of form probably including beating Pompey and/or Peterborough but even doing that can only be enough if we drop points from a very favourable run of games. Wycombe is tricky but they've got nothing to play for. Leyton Orient nothing to play for. Cambridge might actually be the one with something riding on it for them but they could/should be safe by then. Carlisle will be relegated by the last day. Sometimes these nothing to play for games go the other way and teams come out swinging with no pressure. Who knows but I'll be bitterly disappointed if we blow it now having done most of the hard work. 

6 minutes ago, YouRams said:

I've slept on it and will probably get pelters but I still feel last night is 2 points dropped. And I'll elaborate.

All if buts maybes granted, but Bolton win their game in hand then win another that we lose there's still a good chance we miss out on autos by 2 points.

You can pick any time through the season we could've gained 2 points, most will look at Northampton and say the massive Derby County should be rolling over Northampton and that's where we went wrong.

But I'll still be more disappointed In last night and the reason is we never turned up at Northampton, we could've played for a month and never scored. Last night we turned up, first half was one of the best attacking performances I've seen all season. Pompey looked rattled and couldn't deal with the pace. Yes they had more chances first half could've gone in 3-2 down, but we didn't we took the lead. Second half they couldn't get anything going, we gave them too much respect because of the position they're in, played too defensively, didn't make the Collins sub when we should've. These tactical decisions on a day when we turned up and imo could've gone on to score more had we carried on as we did in the first could be more costly than a game we didn't turn up in.

I don't post on here enough to know the beef some posters seem to have with having a positive or negative opinion on decisions by the manager, I'm not strongly for or against Warne, for what he's been dealt finances injuries etc he's doing a good job yes but I still think everyone's opinions should be considered and not ridiculed, would be a boring world if we all thought the same after all.

If Bolton can manage to get promoted from the position they are in still needing to play Pompey and Peterborough then it means two things, one is we've bottled it and another is they'll have deserved it. Both need to happen. 

I'm not sure its that unfair to judge Warne on his Rotherham exploits in the Championship, its a relevant concern. Ignoring it is a bit of wanting your cake and eating it for starters because he was judged on his ability to get Rotherham out of this league in the first instance. If you don't think one is relevant then nor is the other. Matt Taylor came in early doors last season after Warne came here and he kept them up which Warne hadn't managed to achieve. Would Warne have kept them up? We'll never know. Reality is the current side we have here considering we know Max Bird is gone for starters and others could follow given the contract situation, there could be significant turnover of the squad. Its going to be a very difficult season and we're being very naïve to think otherwise. Obviously we need to get promoted first which last night and the weekend have left us in a very good position to achieve.  

Just got in from work and caught the highlights. Very good point, would have taken before kickoff. Could be the vital point come the end of 46 games. 

Unfortunately Wildsmith is and has been for a while now a liability coming for balls he shouldn't be etc, cracking hit from Moxon but I think Wildsmith should have done better.