brady1993

I think we need to realise that we can't really compensate for the defence. No matter what we do in terms of selection in order to be more solid a defence of Byrne Davies Stearman Forsyth is just going to give up a couple good chances a game. It's one of the mistakes I feel like we made last year, where in an effort to stay tight we end up narrowly losing. I think we need to gamble on finding a way to create a lot more chances and dominate in possession because whilst we have a poor defence we actually have a roster of technically good players in midfielder. I think this will likely produce more "swingy" results where we could lose a couple games heavily but I think it will allow us to actually start producing wins. Playing for a draw is one of the biggest wastes of time in football due to the difference between the points for a win and a draw in real terms is vast. With that in mind I'd be seriously consider something like the following:

Roos

Byrne Cashin Davies Buchanan

Bird

  Morrison   Watson

    Sibley        Stretton     Lawrence 

Roos is obvious. Byrne would keep his place by the absolute skin of his teeth and almost entirely down to being a bit more comfortable on the ball than Ebosele but I could definitely see the argument for going differently. I think we need to accept conceding one of the squad places now to Cashin, we are so sorely lacking both pace and technical ability at the back its truly painful and like I said before it's not even as if Stearman Davies as a pair look rock solid. Assuming Buchanan is fit he should rightfully get his starting place back and if he isn't I'd probably start Williams, Fozzy just can't play the amount of football he has done consecutively and the more he fatigues the more glaring errors he's occasionally prone to creep in. 

Midfield is where I expect I'll get the most disagreement and I'm more presenting an idea as opposed to something I'm 100% sold on. First thing is I'd be tempted to move away from the 4231, I feel as a system it has a tendency to artificially impose an attacking block and a defensive block of players alongside often seeing the team set up in very flat lines make it harder to move the ball. Obviously that can be overcome but I think we'd need a right footed deep laying player, ideally who can carry the ball to make it work. It's possible you could get this out of Morrison but I think we might be better off with him a bit further up. The second major thing is I think we need to seriously think about dropping Shinnie or at least not deploying him in a role where by necessity he needs to get on the ball a bunch, played in a deep 2 (and it would be worse as a lone DM) he hamstrings any ability to really control possession properly. There is an argument I feel to playing him more advanced in a 3 over Watson as you can more readily use his strengths off the ball and play around him more readily on the ball. Bird is the only real player at the club capable of playing a sole DM role and would likely find it easier both from an attacking and defensive point of view than he does in a 2. After that I went the two most technically capable midfielders and the most likely to really thread balls through to the front 3 but I could see arguments for either Shinnie (as mentioned) or Hutchinson instead of Watson.

The front three are picked because they are the mostly players we have to score, the plan should be to looking to aggressively playing them in behind or having the fullbacks hammer low crosses into the box (one of the big arguments I can see for going for Ebosele is because of Byrne's propensity for floating nothing balls in). I'd like to put Sibley in midfield or even play him as a 10 but I think for now we need him a bit further forward until we get a better balance and better control over games.

Ultimately I just have this nagging feeling that we need to do something a bit different and let go of players that are perceived as having to play to make us defensively solid when I just don't think that's an end we can get to right now.

TLDR; Your opponent cannot score if they don't have the ball.

4 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Attackers look poor in poor sides, in other news the sky is blue and water is wet.

Its definitely partly that and I think (at least last season) there were tactical issues that stifled the entire attacking unit. More people should notice that none of the attacking players last season performed at a level they'd previously showed they were capable of (except CKR).

12 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

I just put a bet on us to win, but we have to be more forward-thinking. Way, way too much turning backwards. Louie Watson perhaps the biggest culprit, who's being a lot too safety-first. Needs to be braver on the ball and always thinking of going forwards. As do the whole team. We need to put them on the back foot, move the ball quickly and risk a ball that might create an opening.

See this is interesting to me because usually that's not how you'd see Watson getting described. I'm not watching tonight but if as it sounds like Watson is playing as one of the two DMs then what's curious is he isn't the first to be put in that position and be accused of what you've mentioned. I do wonder if the 4231 is artificially restrictive in this regard.

Just now, alexxxxx said:

Can someone explain what Rooney meant that he couldn't play some of the academy lads. 

If they play then it will hamper bringing in other players because it will be another player of professional standing.

Just now, sage said:

I think we will play nice football but I will cover my eyes at every corner they get.

Nothing new there then ? ?

32 minutes ago, sage said:

Weaker side than I expected, in more ways than one. Not such strength or height.

 

It is but there is a lot of technical ability out there especially in the middle and it's an attacking line up. 

Honestly I feel it's pretty hard to call in terms of results and we could easily could undone by being run over physically. However it's a line up where if the young lads get into the game and feel confident, perhaps snatching a goal, I can weirdly see a dominating performance coming about.

1 minute ago, Malty said:

7 out of 11 are academy graduates. Uncle Mel will be delighted …. Until he sees the final score.

Why would he be unhappy with Derby 3 - Salford 0 ?

1 minute ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Wondering whether it might not be a 433 with Morrison sat central. It's a mega-attacking line up, that's for sure. Is Wayne's 'new style' gung-ho, all out attack? Can't say I'd object! 

Otherwise, be interesting to see how the front 3 get on. Hoping Ravel will look to repay the faith too. Sibbo gets a start too, so let's hope he goes well tonight as he may need to if he's to remain in WR's plans. 

Allsop

Festy   JBrown   Forsyth   Williams

Hutchinson   Morrison   Watson

Jozwiak   Stretton   Sibley

 

My guess is if it's a 433 Hutchinson and Morrison would swap around. Given that I think DM is Hutchinson's primary position (could be wrong on that though.

1 minute ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Jozwiak, Watson and Forsyth the only starters to have also started vs Huddersfield.

Forsyth starts as we can't risk Davies or Stearman. Jozwiak and Watson got the least game time on Saturday

All makes sense. Also they are players whose positions are a bit better covered. With Forsyth at Lb there's Buchanan soon back and Williams and then Davies and Steadman for CB. With Jozwiak and Watson we can likely just about cover them if one is out for a few games (and in Watson's case he was likely to lose his place any way).

2 minutes ago, Topram said:

Great to see Stretton back but what’s happened to Kornell McDonald? 

Saw @Ghost of Clough mention earlier that McDonald is injured.

6 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Allsop

Festy   JBrown   Forsyth   Williams

Hutchinson   Watson

Jozwiak   Morrison   Sibley

Stretton

Its possible Morrison is on the left and Sibley in the hole if Rooney us earmarking Morrison to play on the left of Lawrence. 

3 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Not convinced by the CM pairing, but it's the best we have if Rooney insists on so many changes

The line is up very much "I can't afford injuries to certain players" the only exception is Morrison who needs game time. I suspect Jozwiak is only in either because we literally can't change all the senior players out/we expect somebody out wide coming/Rooney feels we have a little more cover wide.

I think the best thing might be to start in a 433 with those personal but it's doubtful that's what we do.

Interesting to see how some of the young lads get on.

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Isn't McDonald still injured? I'd expect Festy at RB.
Stretton only just coming back from injury so I wouldn't want us to risk him so soon - maybe 20 mins at the end.

Didn't know that about McDonald, probably Festy at RB in that case. 

I get it with Stretton but with no new striker forthcoming I can see him being brought in purely to protect CKR and Lawrence for the league. 

8 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

Allsop - McDonald Stearman Forsyth Williams - Hutchinson Bird - Sibley Morrison Ebosele - Lawrence

Roos, Byrne, Davies, Shinnie, Jozwiak, Watson, Stretton

So, Williams is a scholar so wont count to the 23 so likely to start with Buchanan potentially back for the weekend. Rooney already confirmed Allsop & Morrison will start and after his comments after the game it would make no sense for him then to play Ebosele at RB. Davies probably wont be risked & I cant see Lawrence not playing with him being captain so maybe play as a 'false 9' to preserve CKR for Saturday knowing Stretton can come off the bench at some point tonight.

I think that's more or less what we will go for with perhaps Stretton starting up front and possibly the midfield configuration being slightly different.

As much as people might want a cup run, we don't have the squad for it and there are a couple players who if they get injured we could quickly be in deep trouble.  

1 minute ago, jimbo jones said:

Medical progress, you can come back from an ACL and be fine, even multiple times. People like to point to George Thorne, but it was the broken leg that finished him, you can’t account for something like that.

Even then it was a combination of a leg break with a lot of unlucky complications following it.

3 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

as much as i love that goal, Buxton only makes one half decent pass. It's not exactly what i would describe as a 'ping', just passing the ball on the floor into space. 

These are 'ping' passes:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wD1EnJF17k

 

Ok maybe I'm using the wrong terminology but I feel my point still stands and I would say the pass in that video is more than half decent especially given how quickly he's shifted the ball on in a progressive fashion.

Either way I'd say Buxton was substantially better with the ball at his feet than Davies or Stearman.

35 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

Watson if we stick with a similar team to Saturday, with Lawrence outwide. 

It'll be Watson but based on pre-season evidence Morrison will start wide left with Lawrence central.

11 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

yeah you could be right there, but what if Shinnie is going out to win tackles because he knows he has another holding mid behind him though? If he was on his own it might force him to be a bit more positionally aware. 

It's possible but when you watch him he seems to be a player that reacts rather than anticipates which is fine because in a 2 he has the legs for and is marshalling less space. As a single defensive midfielder ? I'm not sure thats the case anymore. It also if he does turn out that he can be very discplined positionally it would still pretty much negate the primary strength to his game. Personally think he'd be more suited to playing as a more advanced player in the 3 because then he could still contribute his defensive qualities but in a way that suits him better as he can go aggresively press and harry.

11 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

Keogh yes, but Buxton was not a passer?

As others have mentioned I'd have to disagree. In 13/14 Buxton really started pinging out passes particularly in situations when a full back had really pushed forward. There is a great example of it here 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zysNz6vAcrQ

Back on topic.... the one thing I find baffling about the arguments on Sibley from a defensive standpoint is isn't the whole point of playing a 4231 as a system is that you play two defensive midfielders to give the attacking 3 midfielders substantially more creative freedom and less defensive responsibility ?

1 hour ago, Chris_Martin said:

agreed. 

that's actually what Lampard signed him for. 

People are saying he can't play there because his passing isn't good enough. Was Eustace really that good at passing?

Eustace's passing/technical ability was sufficient for the role. Yes he'd often move it simply but he tended (from memory) to move things pretty quickly into the rest of the midfield. He was also compensated in part by having two centre backs behind who really could pass. None of that is true for Shinnie. Its also not the primary problem which is that putting him there would likely limit his strengths and magnify his weaknesses. 

On the Lampard stuff. We can speculate that's what he was signed for but I don't think we have definitive proof because it never played out. The other to keep in mind is stylistically Lampard clearly wanted to build towards a team with a hyper aggressive press without a typical holding midfielder (he tried and failed in that regard with Ledley early on) akin to how Klopp would set up a 433 but that's something we are miles away from trying to deploy right now.

1 hour ago, i-Ram said:

I’d let him go if we can get someone in instead. Great heart/battler but limited footballer. 

I'd tend to agree under normal circumstances however I think letting anyone (aside from Marshall) go right now is probably a bad idea given how difficult it currently is to get players in the door.

8 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

so what's the problem then ?

I'll try and outline what I think @IlsonDerby is getting at with the comment on Shinnie's defensive abilities because this is something I've been thinking about for a while, especially when people suggest him as a holding midfielder.

Broadly speaking you can loosely split "defensive" midfielders into two camps; those that are energetic, aggresively press and are looking to frequently tackle (think Kante) and those that marshall space, rely on positioning and then step in when there is a good opportunity or they have to (think Alonso). One role is about pressuring the opponent and typically intiates the press and the other role is about screening the defence and typically backs up the press. I'll nominally call the first role the ball-winning midfielder and the second the holding midfielder.

Of course there is obviously an overlap between the two roles and the higher the level the more you find players who essentially have all the qualities to do either but the point I'm making is they are different and require different skillsets and mentality (almost the complete opposite here). Typically* you want the deepest midfielder in a 433 to be a holding midfielder because by doing that the rest of the team in front of them can both attack and press more freely because they have the reassurance that if they get out of position the holding midfielder is behind them shielding the defense. However if that holding midfielder can sucked into the play and out of position i.e. by going and looking to aggressively winning the ball back there is a cavernous gap of space in the centre of the park just in front of the defense which often leads to very dangerous situations. We've seen both of these cases before at Derby; Eustace marshalled the space and was a shield but wouldn't really go press where as someone like Mascerall, despite reasonable defensive stats, was derided defensively because he would go after the ball too liberally.

Setting aside his ability on the ball for a second, Shinnie is a ball winner who relys on his energy, his aggresion and going out to make tackles. Those are his strengths whereas his positional ability and his reading of the game is only (at best) ok. There has been a fair few cases where he has gotten himself out of position due to how he plays but thats ok because there is another holding midfielder which provides enough time for him to recover and get back. This wouldn't be the case as a holding midfielder and he'd need to remain far more positionally disciplined. One of the major downsides to this though is you actually negate a lot of the stronger elements his ability to press and his energy. Then if you bring his ability in possession, he just lacks the ability both techincally and positionally to adequately link the defence to midfield which is typically key for the role (despite Eustace often being cited as only being ok on the ball he actually did this side of the game to a decent, albeit simple standard).

Somewhat controversially the player who is most the suited to the role in the squad (outside of the obvious in Bielik) is Bird who tends to read the game well and has good positioning. I quietly suspect he would likely thrive more in that role than he does in a 2 

TLDR; Just because a player is a good tackler doesn't make them a holding midfielder. Placing Shinnie would expose a lot of his weaknesses and down play his strengths. 

25 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

Yes agree, his displays v Swansea (H) & Brum (A) were definitely his best in a Derby shirt. Also good v Bournemouth & Brentford (second half) in a similar role. He does carry a threat going forward & moving his pressing further up the field in theory should secure better quality possession with opposition in flux.

Guess it would work better against teams that come onto us though. My concern with him (as with Bradley Johnson) is when we have a lot of the ball as technique, creativity & speed of execution are tested more. As a team, I'd like us to dominate possession more so he'd probably end up being a situational player (sub) rather than a starter.

Oh I completely agree although I don't he's think he's as bad as Johnson in that regard. I guess my point is by moving in that regard would allow us to better compensate for the downsides of his game. Ultimately though if everybody was fit, I personally wouldn't start him outside of particular games for the reasons you've outlined.

7 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

That is true. On the flip side, his first touch was poor that first half on Saturday & his passing in general is slightly laboured or wayward. I don't agree at all that he's better technically than Bryson was.

He's popular because he's all energy, an honest lad & he got his head down and sought to improve himself when Cocu made it clear he wasn't part of his plans. I like him but like another crowd favourite (Bradley Johnson), he's a limited footballer & if we're looking to control games of football, particularly with defenders who aren't noted for their ability to play, then we need holding midfielder(s) with stronger/more consistent technique.

Agree completely,  like you I think there is a limit to how far you can go trying to control games with Shinnie in the heart of midfield and that we probably need to move past him (especially if we rigidly stick to a 4231).

What I will say though is I actually think some of the issues with him would likely be alleviated if we switched to a 433 and unlike what a lot of people suggest, push him into one of the more advanced positions with a ball player behind him as the deepest player. If he was playing that role he wouldn't have to look to get on the ball as much as when he playing in a double pivot, he'd have to worry less about his positioning (which is only fine both attacking and defending) and he can focus on creating space on the ball with his running and aggressively pressing when we lose possession. We've seen him do this as well for example in the games against Swansea and Birmingham around xmas last year and honestly I thought they were probably the best performances we'd seen from him.