Ghost of Clough

"Luxury tax" similar to the financial penalty QPR had when they beat us in the Playoffs.

Should have been a yellow, but ref gave him some leeway due to the conditions. He gave a bit of leeway to both sides for a number fouls which would have been yellows on another day.

2nd will be ours 🐏
 
Barnsley play twice before our next game, with Bolton playing once. Worst case is just 2 points seperating all three sides after playing 42 games a piece, and Peterborough remaining 8 points behind us (with 2 games in hand).
Kicking off their game at the same time as us, Peterborough will have 6 games in 17 days, finishing off with Bolton on the last day. I can't see them maintaining pace despite having an easy set of games on paper. I think it'll result in Bolton winning their fixture, especially as Peterborough can use the game to rest key players ahead of the Playoffs.
Even if we win just 2 of our final 4 games, we end up with 88 points. If we can't acheive that, then we don't deserve promotion.. Peterborough or Barnsley would therefore have to win at least 5 of their final 6 games to finish above us. I have doubts Peterbrough will even achieve 5 wins for the reason mentioned above. 2 wins and a draw for us (should still be easy to achieve) would mean Barnsley need at least 16 points to pass us (due to our superior GD). Again it feels unlikely they'll be able to pass us.
It's between us an Bolton. They face Portsmouth in 2 games time. A game Portsmouth will be more than happy to take a draw from. At that point, it'll most likely keep them 9 points ahead of Bolton with just 3 games remaining, with them needing just 1 more win to clinch the title (assuming they beat beat Shrewsbury on Saturday).
Bolton won't be able to slip up in any other games. If they do, it means we're back to only needing 7 points to finish above them.
For us to take top spot, we would have to win all 4 and hope the best Portsmouth do is 2 wins and a draw from their 5 games. Since they've only lost 4 all season, losing 2 more in their final 5 games is unlikely - they do have Bolton, Barnsley and Lincoln to play, so not impossible. I think they'll find a way to snatch enough points to hold on to top spot.

Anyone thinking a goal should count as an xG of 1.0, "becuase it was a goal" doesn't havea firm grasp of statistics. 
Imagine flipping a coin. It has an xH (expected heads) of 0.5 and xT (expected tails) of 0.5. This particular poster thinks after flipping the coin and it landing on heads, the probability should be counted as landing on heads 100% of the time.
The rest of what the poster says isn't much better than that

Image in the future trying to explain this and the kids saying, what’s a coin 🙄

We decided we would get rid early in the 18/19 season. We even tried to sell him in the January to Mansfield (where he was supposed to stay the full season on loan and would be free in the summer). We then recalled him before realising no one would pay a fee for someone who would be free a few months later, then panic loaned him out to the first taker.
It's been said a few times, but whoever was making the final decision on our youngsters players was doing a bad job of it. We got lucky with Cashin and to some degree Ebosele, but missed out big time on Whittaker, Archie Brown, Jacobsen, and Elsnik.

Anyone thinking a goal should count as an xG of 1.0, "becuase it was a goal" doesn't havea firm grasp of statistics. 
Imagine flipping a coin. It has an xH (expected heads) of 0.5 and xT (expected tails) of 0.5. This particular poster thinks after flipping the coin and it landing on heads, the probability should be counted as landing on heads 100% of the time.
The rest of what the poster says isn't much better than that

2nd will be ours 🐏
 
Barnsley play twice before our next game, with Bolton playing once. Worst case is just 2 points seperating all three sides after playing 42 games a piece, and Peterborough remaining 8 points behind us (with 2 games in hand).
Kicking off their game at the same time as us, Peterborough will have 6 games in 17 days, finishing off with Bolton on the last day. I can't see them maintaining pace despite having an easy set of games on paper. I think it'll result in Bolton winning their fixture, especially as Peterborough can use the game to rest key players ahead of the Playoffs.
Even if we win just 2 of our final 4 games, we end up with 88 points. If we can't acheive that, then we don't deserve promotion.. Peterborough or Barnsley would therefore have to win at least 5 of their final 6 games to finish above us. I have doubts Peterbrough will even achieve 5 wins for the reason mentioned above. 2 wins and a draw for us (should still be easy to achieve) would mean Barnsley need at least 16 points to pass us (due to our superior GD). Again it feels unlikely they'll be able to pass us.
It's between us an Bolton. They face Portsmouth in 2 games time. A game Portsmouth will be more than happy to take a draw from. At that point, it'll most likely keep them 9 points ahead of Bolton with just 3 games remaining, with them needing just 1 more win to clinch the title (assuming they beat beat Shrewsbury on Saturday).
Bolton won't be able to slip up in any other games. If they do, it means we're back to only needing 7 points to finish above them.
For us to take top spot, we would have to win all 4 and hope the best Portsmouth do is 2 wins and a draw from their 5 games. Since they've only lost 4 all season, losing 2 more in their final 5 games is unlikely - they do have Bolton, Barnsley and Lincoln to play, so not impossible. I think they'll find a way to snatch enough points to hold on to top spot.

21 different scorers in 08/09

6th - Oxford or Lincoln winning all of their games would put them level with our current total. They play each other, so they both can't pass us.

6th - Oxford or Lincoln winning all of their games would put them level with our current total. They play each other, so they both can't pass us.

6th - Oxford or Lincoln winning all of their games would put them level with our current total. They play each other, so they both can't pass us.

6th - Oxford or Lincoln winning all of their games would put them level with our current total. They play each other, so they both can't pass us.

6th - Oxford or Lincoln winning all of their games would put them level with our current total. They play each other, so they both can't pass us.

Should have been a yellow, but ref gave him some leeway due to the conditions. He gave a bit of leeway to both sides for a number fouls which would have been yellows on another day.

Wycombe next, just 3 days after their Cup Final against Peterborough. There will be a few tired legs on the pitch.
Then Leyton Orient who have won just 1 in 6 and ate now pretty much out of the Playoff race.
A tricky away game vs Cambridge fighting for survival, but should be safe by the time we play them. They've won their last 2, but went 7 without a win before that.
Finishing off against soon to be relegated Carlisle, managed by someone who would surely give us a helping hand if we needed it

Wycombe next, just 3 days after their Cup Final against Peterborough. There will be a few tired legs on the pitch.
Then Leyton Orient who have won just 1 in 6 and ate now pretty much out of the Playoff race.
A tricky away game vs Cambridge fighting for survival, but should be safe by the time we play them. They've won their last 2, but went 7 without a win before that.
Finishing off against soon to be relegated Carlisle, managed by someone who would surely give us a helping hand if we needed it

Wycombe next, just 3 days after their Cup Final against Peterborough. There will be a few tired legs on the pitch.
Then Leyton Orient who have won just 1 in 6 and ate now pretty much out of the Playoff race.
A tricky away game vs Cambridge fighting for survival, but should be safe by the time we play them. They've won their last 2, but went 7 without a win before that.
Finishing off against soon to be relegated Carlisle, managed by someone who would surely give us a helping hand if we needed it

Wycombe next, just 3 days after their Cup Final against Peterborough. There will be a few tired legs on the pitch.
Then Leyton Orient who have won just 1 in 6 and ate now pretty much out of the Playoff race.
A tricky away game vs Cambridge fighting for survival, but should be safe by the time we play them. They've won their last 2, but went 7 without a win before that.
Finishing off against soon to be relegated Carlisle, managed by someone who would surely give us a helping hand if we needed it

Wycombe next, just 3 days after their Cup Final against Peterborough. There will be a few tired legs on the pitch.
Then Leyton Orient who have won just 1 in 6 and ate now pretty much out of the Playoff race.
A tricky away game vs Cambridge fighting for survival, but should be safe by the time we play them. They've won their last 2, but went 7 without a win before that.
Finishing off against soon to be relegated Carlisle, managed by someone who would surely give us a helping hand if we needed it

Wycombe next, just 3 days after their Cup Final against Peterborough. There will be a few tired legs on the pitch.
Then Leyton Orient who have won just 1 in 6 and ate now pretty much out of the Playoff race.
A tricky away game vs Cambridge fighting for survival, but should be safe by the time we play them. They've won their last 2, but went 7 without a win before that.
Finishing off against soon to be relegated Carlisle, managed by someone who would surely give us a helping hand if we needed it

Roughly £60m over budget afyer all exclusions are accounted for (rough estiamte without looking st any accounts). At least £26m of that due to 'budgeting' for a top 6 finish, and a further £10-15m due to sacking Rogers and his team. I can't see how they can explain the rest of the overspend.

Portsmouth only need to win 3 out of their 5 to secure the title, so it would be unlikely for us to clinch top spot, even if they do lose to Bolton.
However, the do have 3 tough games still to play Bolton (away), Barnsley, and Lincoln (away, last day) to play so we could still sneak in on the last day...
I think I'd rather be 7 clear of 3rd with 3 games remaining to be honest.

A well earned point, but we could feel a tad unfortunate. Their first goal looked like it may have been offside, and there was a handball in the build up to the 2nd.
Still, that point pretty much means Bolton need to win every game now, as you'd back us to win 3 out of our remaining 4 games.

A well earned point, but we could feel a tad unfortunate. Their first goal looked like it may have been offside, and there was a handball in the build up to the 2nd.
Still, that point pretty much means Bolton need to win every game now, as you'd back us to win 3 out of our remaining 4 games.