Ian Buxton's Bat

2 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

stats will of course say that though as he's had 4 pens which are 0.8xg chances and the tap in rebound from the pen 0.95xg

Sorry - I'm confused

If you look at the goals vs xg for pens/tap-ins he's scored 4 goals from an xg of 4.15.

If you you strip out the goals and chances from pens / tap-in rebounds he has 0.41 goals / 90 mins against an xg of 0.21........if you discount his pen involvement he looks even better

11 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

4 pens actually as he missed one and tapped in the rebound

so slightly worse than one in 3 games, and considering we have arguably the best squad in the league creating chances for him, it's actually not that great

Sorry to bring it back xg again but he has an xg of 0.47 per 90 mins for this league season which is essentially what he should score with the best squad in the league putting things on a plate for him. That includes pens.

Yet he’s scored 0.62 per 90 mins against full strength teams.

Stats say he’s over-performing.

From footy stats.org btw.

ATG

31Vickers...5.5.....not a lot to do but didn't look confident doing it. Wildsmith has a bit of Schmeichel about him - makes mistakes but body language is always rock solid. I'd be tempted to swap back on Sat if I were Warne.

2Wilson.....7.5.....bit of a cheat code at RB against a weak team. Loads of decent crosses and always trying to be positive.

35Nelson.....8.....bit of a league 1 Virgil van Dyke now....he knows he's going to win everything, forwards know he's going to win everything and he wins everything. Half point off for backing off on their first goal.

6Cashin......7.5.....excellent again 

20Elder......3.5......half point for the cross on the second goal. Stray passes, vertical headers, lamentable defending and a reluctance to cross ( 2 last night compared to how many from Wilson?) I genuinely hope he comes good, and second half v Posh gives some hope but expect Sibley to play on Saturday

17Sibley.....6.5....added much needed composure at LB. Expect him to play there on Sat.

11Méndez-Laing......6.5.....did loads of really really good stuff and was overall excellent -  but full point off for doing lollipops in our half for their first goal. Whether it was a foul or not, it was a bit of unnecessary flashiness in a bad area and complete momentum changer

8Bird.........7.....nothing flash but worked very hard in what was often a 4-2-4 formation. Quietly decent.

4Hourihane.....7.......loads of examples of excellent quality. Bit of a white knuckle ride playing him in 4-4-2 or 4-2-4 but I'm very glad he plays for us and not a L1 rival. Doesn't hide - proper quarterback performance in last 25 when they dropped back 

7Barkhuizen.....7.5......can't believe what I've read on the matchday thread. Other than scoring the first, making the second (with 2 involvements) and winning the ball back for our third what did he contribute?  Nelson was my MOTM but Sky love goal involvements.

5Bradley......6

19John-Jules....5.5....clearly talented and made some very useful contributions but when I see JC sprinting past him to get on the end of something in the box in the second half then I see someone who hasn't made it and isn't busting a gut to make it. The Burton sub looked much hungrier.

16Thompson.....6

9Collins.......7.5.....another very good performance. Benefits from having players around him rather than being lone striker. Arguably our single most important player at the moment. 

Deserved to win that.

Listened to Radio Derby on way home and they’ve watched a different game where Burton deserved a draw.

Call me old fashioned but to score 3 they’d need at least 3 shots on target.

We had two iffy bits of defending and they had 2 excellent finishes. Other than that I thought Burton were one of the poorest teams we’ve played. 

The only slight negative is that we didn’t get the winner in the 97th minute. Couldn’t believe their plucky new manager moaning at the amount of time added on ……after he’d called a basketball style timeout with their mortally wounded number 3 a full 8 mm from the touch line.

Got what they deserved.

25 minutes ago, Barney1991 said:

And judging by Leigh Curtis last piece we are starting to go back to the bare bones again through injuries 

Wilson ward and Forsyth all out 

Not great news is it?

Of course any player can get injured but I think this should rule out any speculative punts on players who are known to be injury prone or who are just coming back from injury.

Chesterfield are playing tonight against decent opposition - be interesting to see if Dobra is involved. Looks a good player.

Heard it second or third hand that he is a complete twonk ......no idea if true.

Big step up though - as we saw with Tschimanga who was scoring 3 in 4 for Chezzy and hasn't scored a single goal since moving to league 1.

RTV

Vickers 5.5........been reasonably impressed with him thus far but looked iffy with feet first half. Good saves second half.

Nelson 6.........did OK but his rubbish pass after 20 seconds set the tone

Wilson 6.5.......not his best day but always tries to make things happen (See Elder...)

John-Jules 4.5.......in danger of starting to look a bit like a talented footballer who thinks he's too talented for this level. Needs to improve work-rate and have a bit of grunt about him and he'll be decent.....but difficult when the ref gives fouls against you for daring to have a pulse

Bradley 6........did OK

Barkhuizen 5.5.........tries to make things happen but not his most effective night

Collins 6........zero service......zero favours from ref......surprised he was risked in the game to be honest 

Thompson 5.....best of a bad midfield in the first half. Thought he did well with his chance - good defending tbf

Mendez-Laing 6.......injected some needed threat

Sibley 4........one cross and that's about it

Bird 6.5........improved the midfield but several Hollywood passes just gave the ball away

Elder 5........not a great defender and rarely tries to make things happen. Seems to take the safe option every time.....and then doesn't always execute it. Genuine question: has he put in a cross yet? 2nd half v Posh gives me hope there's a player in there

Cashin 6.5......did OK

Fornah 4.......as someone on the match thread said, too much fannying around with the ball in midfield rather than moving it quickly. Looks great when he escapes from a tangle and bursts forward but looks self-indulgent when he loses it

Hourihane 6.5 ......improved midfield. Does what Fornah doesn't and shifts the ball from congested areas into space 

Ward 4......not his best night. Not sure if it was him or Elder to blame for the goal. Not a massive fan of 5 at the back but I don't think we can't carry both in a back 4. 

For much of the first half it seemed we were playing long hoofball to Collins, who didn't have a chance.......was this because of lack of trust in the midfield or a reaction to terrible passing in first few mins? Unclear, but set-up and tactics seemed to be as much an issue as poor individual performances. On TV it seemed that we were better in the second half despite losing it.

Sky sports

31Vickers…..6..ok, bit iffy on edge of box at one point. Liked positivity on early cross

35Nelson…..7 decent

5Bradley…..7 no issues, decent game

6Cashin…..7  decent

2Wilson……7.5 excellent game. Defensively good as well….could open the door to a Nyambe-less back 4?

8Bird……8 two great assists and put himself about more than recent games

4Hourihane…..6.5 decent game. Great corner, clearly a plan

22Fornah…..6

3Forsyth…….6 did OK

20Elder…….5 meh….rubbish for their goal but won’t get much blame cos he’s not called Sonny….a bit too safe going forward 

19John-Jules…..4.5 nice touch in the first goal but must learn from Collins’ work rate

7Barkhuizen…..6 on the spot for the goal didn’t do much else right or wrong

11Méndez-Laing…..8.5 I said he was bone idle for Posh’s first on Monday but he put in a monster shift today….one track back and tackle was as good as his goal

9Collins……8 great goal, unreal work rate and good link up play

16Thompson…..7.5 cameo, but a great cameo. Serious intent to win the ball and move it forward without simply hoofing it

ref…pen at 2-0 and we’d be 3rd

ATG 

Thought Posh were very good. 3 up top were strong, fast and incisive.

22, 27, 14 in midfield made it feel like a cup game against higher league opponents.

Thought we did well to come within a whisker of a point 

ATG

1Wildsmith - 5 big fist needed when that ball was in the air for ages. 

24Nyambe - 6 better RB than RCB but did OK

35Nelson - 6.5 did OK. Hands were pretty full

6Cashin - 7.5 brilliant for 93 mins and 20 seconds 

3Forsyth - 6 did OK. Didn’t deserve subbing but on a yellow 

20Elder - 7 first time I’ve been impressed. Did well

4Hourihane - 5 over-run 

16Thompson - 6.5 did OK

2Wilson - 7 patches of excellence- wouldn’t have brought him off

24Ward - 5 didn’t bring much to the party 

11Méndez-Laing - 4 poor game. Bone idle for their first goal….he’s well in credit though 

19John-Jules - 6 OK

8Bird - 5 poor game in general. Not a patch on their middle 3

9Collins - 8 excellent game

7Barkhuizen - 6 another great assist - otherwise Ok-ish

17Sibley - 5 good free kick. Seemed lethargic…..Collins sprinted past him to defend our box in about the 75th minute. Shouldn’t happen

Tough one.

Best/most consistent player……Nelson with Cashin a tad behind.

Player with the highest “where the bloody hell would we be without him?” score….NML

Someone famous said it (can’t remember who)……attackers win you games, defenders win you leagues.

ATG

Wildsmith 6.5…..spectator…..again

Nyambe 7.5……best RB option by a country mile. Much better with the ball than previously 

Nelson 8.5…..faultless

Cashin 9…….one stray pass but best player on pitch over the 90. 

Forsyth 7……..excellent…..unlucky to have goal chalked off

Wilson 7.5……lively…..could’ve had a goal and a couple of assists. Their LB was flapping for most of the game

Fornah 5.5……looked like he was carrying a bag of cement rather than injecting any zip but did make a couple of key tackles

Bird 7.5…..looks top class when we decide to play him IN midfield and play through midfield….great game

Hourihane 7.5….see Bird. Tackled and battled really well to say he was on a yellow for over 90 mins 

Bradley 6.5….. no need to go to a back 5 (again) but won some important battles 

Elder 6…….good sprint onto the pitch. Genius sub to get him on rather than waiting 30 secs for Bradley. Really impressive from Warne.

Barkhuizen 7……great assist. Lovely interplay throughout. Looked like a missed sitter live but NML did distract him

Sibley 6……OK

Mendez-Laing 7……reverse of last match. No 1v1 brilliance of note but interplay was excellent 

Collins….7……just missing a goal. Tireless. Really good performance.

442 kept them pinned in their half. Having NML, Barks, Wilson, Bird and Hourihane close together with the ball on the deck was A) effective and B) very easy on the eye.

Best 60 mins of the season. Tailed off a bit. Their 10 was the best player on the pitch after he came on. Glad he didn’t start.

Ref……generally good performance but the dishing out of yellows was very inconsistent and very lenient to the home team.

Best 60 mins of season so far in my opinion. Deserved to be out of sight by half time.

Two up top to press them worked a treat. Some great interplay on the deck. 

Goes without saying that CB’s and Fozzy were excellent but having Nyambe back dropped my blood pressure by several notches. Absolutely outstanding and really disappointing he’ll be off to Afcon.

Ref didn’t get much wrong in terms of decisions but yellow cards were a joke.

I absolutely hate it when refs look at their watch rather than the severity of an incident to decide if it’s a yellow card. Nailed on yellow in 1st min but presumably too early. 

Loads of cynical fouls in first half to stop our quick breaks that should have been cards.

Collins booked for chirp to lino in first half. McMannaman gets a quiet “calm down Cal” for same offence in the second.

Highlight of the day…..the Elder sub. Genius. 

Lowlight. A lot of dog sh1t in Wigan. Like a trip back to 80’s, with people wiping their shoes on grass verges.

ATG

1Wildsmith  6.5.......Spectator

23Ward  5....decent ball for 1st goal but not great otherwise. On the highlights you can see Barks trying to get him to cover the run down the wing pre-pen. Had he done that, he may not have been put on the naughty step

2Wilson 7.....stinking first 5 mins then great. Goal will do him a world of good and lovely pass for Collins

35Nelson 8.....Defensively splendid

6Cashin 8.5......Brilliant performance in a pretty drab game. Why would you go to a back 5 and shove him on the right when the opposition had caused us zero threat? All it would take is a rubbish right footed pass and a consolation goal for his confidence to be dented. Not worth it to give Elder a few mins

3Forsyth 7.........Really good performance. Lack of options in first half when we were playing our preferred circle formation with no CMs.

4Hourihane 7.......Really good game. Wish he'd stand in midfield and get the ball rather than dropping into defence and getting his binoculars out to look for Bird and Fornah

16Thompson 6

7Barkhuizen 5.5......Not his best game in terms of end product. What's interesting is that when you watch highlights back he's always sprinting to get on the end of things and if often an unused option close to goal when we create chances. 

20Elder 6.......glad he's fit. Should have given Fozzy a rest rather than going to the obligatory back 5 with players out of position

22Fornah 5.....poor game. Got himself marked for most of the first half. Him and Bird seemed to be trying to play between their defence and midfield......a space of a full 3 yards. Resulted in no options and the circle formation.

19Sibley 6......Sort of changed the game without playing that well. Just a determination to be available and to drive from midfield made a difference - albeit we we wining again by then

8Bird 6.......Played like Fornah until Sibley came on and then played like Sibley when Forhah went off. Can we start him with Kevin de Bruyne on Boxing Day?

11Méndez-Laing 6.......not his greatest game but the outside of his right boot is becoming a really reliable go-to. Seems to be playing with a smile on his face.

19John-Jules 6

9Collins 7.5......made loads of runs that got ignored first half, when he did get ball to him he linked well and created chances. Decent goal and some decent defensive headers. 

Astonishing to think that, after lots of individual and collective inconsistency, we'd be second in the league without the last 5 seconds against Wycombe. Turn some 5's into 6's and 6's into 7's and top 2 is very achievable.

Not a great game but deserved the points......not a bad outcome with, in my opinion, 4 or 5 players being some way below their best.

Nelson and Cashin excellent. Forsyth, Hourihane and Collins very good (and I'm not doing a Sky and blowing smoke up the backsides of goal scorers). Sibley had a good 5 or 10 mins when he came on and was then a bit meh - but in those 5 or 10 mins he changed the momentum of the game. Wilson was a bit meh for 10 mins and then was then very good.

Mick Harford sat in front of us......wonder if he needs a very, very expensive replacement for the poor lad with the heart condition.

1Wildsmith - 6…….spectator. Poor kick resulted in their final free kick.

23Ward -5……..not sure it was a pen but lost his man. Did OK otherwise 

35Nelson - 7…….defensively sound. More long ball stuff again but looked like we were playing our earlier season ‘circle’ formation with literally no CMs, not intention to play through CM and therefore no options

6Cashin - 7.5 ….my MOTM. Had Taylor in his pocket….but see Nelson for distribution 

3Forsyth - 5 …..OK defensively but poor passing 

5Bradley -6 …..did nothing wrong 

4Hourihane - 5….poor touch =bad tackle =yellow=can’t make another tackle

7Barkhuizen - 7……energy and threat.

2Wilson - 5…..poor game but mucked around positionally 

19John-Jules - 5……involved in the goal but pretty poor 

8Bird - 5.5……..unclear if told to  vacate CM or chose to, but largely unavailable for the ball when playing the circle formation 

17Sibley - 4.5…..ill deserved booking. Described by Warne as a CM in interviews….  But didn’t set foot there or do much!

22Fornah - 6…..Ok after one sloppy pass

11Méndez-Laing - 6…..link up play and passing was poor but made the goal

9Collins - 7……zero service, maximum effort

Awful game, wish we had the balls to play through CM consistently.

Ref was poor. No major howlers although I’m waiting for a camera angle that shows pen was a dive!

Inconsistent with cards for time wasting, very inconsistent added on time in each half and spineless with Taylor showing utter disrespect when subbed

ATG

18 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

On the positive side the ceasefire did last nearly a week which I personally didn't even expect....

On the negative @Ian Buxton's Bat must be dreading coming on here......

Haha…….just logged on.

Where’s the panda emoji?

It looks like I struck a chord with the opening post and I'm very pleasantly surprised that it kicked of a bit of an 'Arguers Anonymous' therapy session, with several posters being honest and contrite enough to hold their hands up and admit to getting drawn into personal spats.

On the evidence of this thread, most of the members of Arguers Anonymous are not your archetypal keyboard warrior but seem like Rams-mad, articulate, intelligent people who on occasions let themselves go a bit too far. It gives me hope it can become largely self-regulating.

I don't want to leave the forum and I'm reluctant to use 'ignore' as many of the things that irk me are good points made in a poor way - but I'd like it to be a bit more footy focused and a bit more civil and I sort of get the impression that several self-confessed arguers would like the same - without losing the core element of the forum........opinions, debate, humour and camaraderie.

I don't understand computer coding so no idea if I'm asking for a 2 minute fix or 2 years of hard work but could we add something like B4's panda profile pick to the emoji list so that anyone can, very politely, give a bit of a 'could you have made your (often completely valid) point in a less provocative way' nudge?.......i.e. be a bit more B4

I'm a reasonably diplomatic, boring, steady middle aged bloke.

I'm reasonably well educated and can write reasonably well so try to choose words on this forum that express an opinion that may be different to others, without deliberately causing offence. I certainly don't have 'poor writing' or 'poor vocabulary' as anything like an excuse if I were to cause offence.........but, without being patronising, I do understand not all so-called offensive posts are intended to be offensive.

However, it's apparent that I'm not alone in finding it tiresome that almost every single thread deteriorates into a game of point scoring, oneupmanship and, increasingly, forum archeology, in order to be unpleasant to one another.

There seems to be, in equal measure, deliberate attempts to cause offence and seek offence and it's just not great reading. I'm not in the slightest bit supportive of closing down debates or censoring differences of opinion but the number of personal spats with unpleasant language is getting beyond a joke.

I can't blame the mods because, individually, most of these posts fall below the threshold of complaint but, collectively, they make this forum so much worse than it could be.

I came to this forum for camaraderie when we nearly went under as a club - and it was a source of great comfort, information and humour.

It's got to the point where I'm considering signing off and and using the Telegraph and Radio Derby as my main non-matchday links - they have limitations but they are civil.

Any ideas what we can do?

29 minutes ago, Returning ram said:

FIFA, CM and wiki surely count as established connections in this day and age ?

Do you mean FM....Football Manager?

I've never been near it but heard the founder/inventor say that it was originally purchased by geeks to play in their bedrooms but now, the stats are so accurate and wide ranging, that about 50% of sales are to professional clubs.

No idea if it's better to get an old geezer with a cap and a lanyard to watch Pablo Al-McSheznyski in the flesh once or look at his lifetime stats.

1 Wildsmith 6……good job that lino flagged!

23 Ward 6…….Better going forward than defensively 

35 Nelson 7……great defensively, quite a bit of long ball rubbish

6 Cashin 7…….see comment for Nelson

3 Forsyth 7……..good game, looked like a bit of an air shot from (Sibley’s?) cross first half when a yard out for a deserved goal

4 Hourihane 6.5…..did ok. Silly card meant a bit of necessary jibbing of tackles

2 Wilson 7…….good game. He’s massively improved his composure when he’s assisting…..if he could improve it when he has a sniff of goal he’d possibly be really, really good 

17 Sibley 7…….good game all round 

8 Bird 6…..grew into game after a very quiet start

11 Méndez-Laing 8…..mr accuracy. Makes such a difference when someone can put chances on a plate for teammates 

9 Collins 6.5…….Missed a sitter…..but hasn’t missed a match, hasn’t jibbed a challenge or failed to give 100%. 

39 Brown 6

19 John-Jules 6………looking good. Sniffed out 2 chances……great sub to put on against tired defenders. Is he ready to start?

7 Barkhuizen 6…….really pleased he got a goal

22 Fornah 6

5 Bradley 6……one bobbly back pass that ended up with Cashin in a bit of bother but OK. Good to see him sprinting up field to try and get a goal on the break. 

Decent overall performance. Couldn’t understand some of the long ball stuff when they were down to 10…..but still a better mix of long ball and playing through midfield than a couple of months ago.

TV

16 minutes ago, Mr. P said:

The ref will try to even this up now. 

Agree. Anyone on a yellow should get subbed.

Good win last night from an OK-ish performance in my opinion.

There is an excellent description of xG here

https://www.coachesvoice.com/cv/expected-goals-xg-explained/#:~:text=A shot that measures 0.01,not a very good chance.

My (new) understanding:

Basically each shot/chance is graded on the likelihood of an average player scoring that chance.

Shots on target doesn't = xG for any game but clearly, on average, over a season, the more shots on target you have, the higher your xG is likely to be.

If you look on footy stats website, it appears that on average our for and against xG's are similar (hence lots of tight matches?) but as a team we're outperforming our expected xG .......and conceding fewer than the xG against. Does that mean we've got decent strikers and the opposition haven't? not sure.

Each player has an xG based on the chances created by themselves and by team mates and it makes interesting reading........just look on the footy stats website to see how 'terrible' Collins is. He's out-performing his xG but I guess if he got in more goal scoring positions his xG could be higher.

I'm guessing that a goalie can make worldie saves from low xG shots and be man of the match despite an overall low xG for the other side.

Rams TV

1 Wildsmith 6 - bit flappy on a couple of crosses

24 Nyambe 6.5 - OK defensively

35 Nelson 7.5 - defensively excellent, a few hit and hope passes

6 Cashin 8 - great game

3 Forsyth 7.5 - extra half for the super quick reaction clearance from cash's off-the-face own goal 'attempt' at the end

4 Hourihane 6 - decent game. Don't get the hate.

2 Wilson 8 - really good performance. Don't fancy him as a full back but he does some excellent auxiliary defending as a winger. Hands up...I wrote him off early season but he's coming good.

22 Fornah 7 - seems to play brilliantly in patches and have a few dodgy spells so this 7 is more of a 10-4-9-5-10-4 sort of thing. Great athlete though and gets back to cover his mistakes.

8 Bird 6 - decent enough

11 Méndez-Laing 7 - not his best overall game but ......what a pass

9 Collins 7 - works very hard. Shots on target. Never stops making runs

19 John-Jules 7 - looks like he's got a decent first touch

7 Barkhuizen 6 - goal came from his press. Not a lot else to say

17 Sibley 6 -

5 Bradley 6 -

5 hours ago, ram59 said:

Was that after they found the Egyptians player's nose 20 yards away on the touchline? 🤔😁

Very interesting that it was a yellow until international superstar Salah came to have a word with the ref - after which it was upgraded.

To be fair to the ref, it was a head-high tackle.......from his crouched position nearby

I was at the game tonight.

Bizarrely, I actually thought the first half was hugely entertaining with both goalies making great saves as well as the goals.

Second half was dire.

In my opinion, Crewe were significantly better than the previous 3 League 1 teams we’ve played at home……but we were very poor in the second half.

I’m not a massive Warne fan but can’t really blame him for tonight - there WERE lots of crosses, most of them terrible, but there was also play on the floor through midfield, which was also sometimes terrible.

Warne didn’t underhit any passes, overhit any crosses, put 3 consecutive crosses into the goalie’s hands or jib out of any headers in midfield. 

I’m a big fan of Fozzy but he deserved to be hooked, as did Smith and Hourihane - so can’t really complain there.

As for the Bradley sub - again, I’m not a massive fan but it was to go 3 at the back to chuck more players up front…..actually an attacking sub.

I’ve blamed Warne for losses this season but I agreed with his RD interview…..just didn’t play well enough and congrats to Crewe.

Now let’s go and sign some of their players in Jan.