xG

[Andicis]

Just now, RoyMac5 said:

Again, vague. How far statistically is not too far off the money?!

Well, it depends on the league and the season doesn't it? Generally, it'll be able to tell you within 2-3 places where a team should be after a full season after a reasonable sample size of games. Not sure how that is vague? No one measure is going to tell you everything you need to know, all statistics are limited. It gives you a good indication how the game went and can highlight teams that are being a bit fortunate or unlucky. 

[AndyinLiverpool]

or you could just watch the game

[PistoldPete]

Just now, AndyinLiverpool said:

or you could just watch the game

If all you want to do is watch the football why are you on this forum? 

[Day]

Anyone that voted "I like" smells of cheese and onion crisps.

[AndyinLiverpool]

2 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

If all you want to do is watch the football why are you on this forum? 

Your question is built on an incorrect supposition

[AndyinLiverpool]

2 minutes ago, David said:

Anyone that voted "I like" smells of cheese and onion crisps.

As an argument, it's as good as 'thick or deliberately obtuse'

[Day]

Just now, AndyinLiverpool said:

As an argument, it's as good as 'thick or deliberately obtuse'

That was what I was going for.

All I've seen so far is well, you're thick or obtuse or don't get it. 

I get it, I just don't like it so they stink of cheese and onion crisps.

[DarkFruitsRam7]

2 minutes ago, David said:

That was what I was going for.

All I've seen so far is well, you're thick or obtuse or don't get it. 

I get it, I just don't like it so they stink of cheese and onion crisps.

Don't have an issue with people not liking stats. I've not got much interest in talking xG down the pub.

But it's an objectively useful metric for measuring and predicting team performance.

[Day]

4 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Don't have an issue with people not liking stats. I've not got much interest in talking xG down the pub.

But it's an objectively useful metric for measuring and predicting team performance.

Just loses any credibility when all you can say you're thick if you don't get it. 

[Gaspode]

11 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Don't have an issue with people not liking stats. I've not got much interest in talking xG down the pub.

But it's an objectively useful metric for measuring and predicting team performance.

I’ve been watching the Rams for over 40 years - do you think xG will help me have a better idea of how we’re likely to perform? because I can tell you honestly that I’ve very little idea before any match as to whether we’ll play well or not or whether we’ll score one goal or four …. 

[PistoldPete]

24 minutes ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

Your question is built on an incorrect supposition

That's how reductio ad absurdum works.  

[AndyinLiverpool]

9 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

That's how reductio ad absurdum works.  

With fancy talk like that, nobody's going to accuse you of being thick or obtuse.

[Bris Vegas]

4 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

If you've looked into xG and you don't think it's at least moderately useful for analysing a team's performance trends, you're either thick or being deliberately obtuse.

?

XG is now more telling than total shots on goal. I’d also say another stat which is becoming more important is territory, especially when teams can rack up 60-70% but it’s pointless if it’s in their own half.

I’m not a gambler. But I often look at Bet365 as they have individual match stats and the ones I look at out of interest is the XG, number of shots on target and what they label as dangerous attacks (the number of final third entries).

I feel they give me a better idea of how a game is going than the previous possession or total shots metric. 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Bris Vegas

[sage]

24 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

XG is now more telling than total shots on goal. I’d also say another stat which is becoming more important is territory, especially when teams can rack up 60-70% but it’s pointless if it’s in their own half.

I’m not a gambler. But I often look at Bet365 as they have individual match stats and the ones I look at out of interest is the XG, number of shots on target and what they label as dangerous attacks (the number of final third entries).

I feel they give me a better idea of how a game is going than the previous possession or total shots metric. 

what was the xg from yesterdays game?

[Comrade 86]

3 hours ago, David said:

Anyone that voted "I like" smells of cheese and onion crisps.

 

[Bris Vegas]

2 hours ago, sage said:

what was the xg from yesterdays game?

I missed the game as I was working, but I remember checking around half-time and it was something like Derby 0.45 - 0.07 Bolton which was interesting because Bolton had recorded 2 shots (but they were probably either blocked, or hopeful long-rangers).

Often the XG is lower than goals scored.

A penalty I think only counts as 0.75 as I believe they go off average % chance of scoring.

 

[TomTom92]

I like it. Although as I’m not a nerd and don’t work for a football club in an analysing capacity I never check the xG of any matches. 
 
But I do recall when Brentford brought in Frank and after 8 or so matches their results were pony a few people wanted him gone. Apparently the xG and other underlying stats suggested they’d just been unlucky so stuck with him and look how that turned out. 
 
Ultimately I don’t think you can hang all your hats on the xG stat. But I do think it gives a good indicator of how a team is performing.
 
  

[BriggRam]

Never heard of it till now

[Carl Sagan]

16 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Don't have an issue with people not liking stats. I've not got much interest in talking xG down the pub.

But it's an objectively useful metric for measuring and predicting team performance.

Actually the issue with it is that it's such a subjective stat. Which is why the different sites have different values of xG. It's based on an opinion of how likely someone is to score in a certain situation. I understand statisticians like to be paid lots of money to try to sound clever and insightful about football matches, but ultimately I don't think it adds anything.

[Carnero]

If Mbappe has a free shot at the keeper from 8 yards out does it count as the same xG fraction as if Conor Sammon has the exact same scenario?

Edited January 23, 2023 by Carnero