Starship and a Human city on Mars

[Carl Sagan]

Although there haven't been any launches for a while, the pace of development at what is now called Starbase, Texas, has been extraordinary. SpaceX think they've tested enough so are moving straight on to orbital test flights. But that needed a huge step up in infrastructure.

The Starship which we've seen launch and finally land cannot reach orbit on its own. It's simply the fully reusable second stage of the rocket. It will sit atop the SuperHeavy booster (the fully reusable first stage) and the first orbital version of that has been built. And last night, in one night, SpaceX fitted all of its 29 Raptor engines. This will give it twice the thrust of the Saturn V rocket - that's how powerful this thing is.

They have also constructed an orbital launch platform, and  a 143m tall orbital launch tower beside it. And built a new "tank farm" next to that to fuel the mighty vessel.

Three years ago this was a field in Texas. Now it's a massive space industrial complex with the official NASA contract to land humans on the Moon! Here's Elon's update showing the launch platform being completed beside the Tower (which doesn't lean but he must have a terrible camera):

The biggest obstacle to the orbital test flight at the moment is regulatory approval from the Federal Aviation Authority. However, because reaching the Moon in 2024 with the Artemis mission remains the stated goal of NASA and the US Government, it's no longer a battle of wills between just SpaceX and the FAA. Other powerful players might help speed things along. 

[Carl Sagan]

This is to appreciate the scale. The Super Heavy first stage is being moved to the launchpad for testing. It gives an idea of how massive the whole rocket (once Starship sits on top of it) will be. Awesome! 

 

[Carl Sagan]

Today SpaceX mated the Starship (prototype SN20) on top of the Super Heavy booster (version 4) for the very first time:

This is the combination intended to attempt the first orbital test flight in the near future. It is the tallest (118m) and most powerful rocket ever constructed and, far more importantly, it is designed to be fully and rapidly reusable. What an achievement to have come so far so fast. The future is being built before our eyes.

Later on, Starship SN20 was taken back to the HighBay to have its remaining heatshield tiles fitted while Booster 4 remains on the orbital launch pad for testing. I imagine that next will come an tank test using liquid nitrogen just to ensure the fuel tanks can cope with the desired pressure. 

[Carl Sagan]

This isn't strictly Mars, but it's related as part of the SpaceX push to go further out. At 1.02 am (tonight/tomorrow morning) four civilians are launching on a three-day mission in a SpaceX Crew Dragon. The mission is called Inspiration4 and it's 4 non-NASA private astronauts, three of whom effectively won a lottery and are flying with billionaire Jared Isaacman. I think they're going further out than any Humans have been since the Apollo missions, a  couple of hundred kilometres above the International Space Station so they'll have an amazing view of Earth. And they've had a special observation window (a cupola) built into the craft for the finest ever views in space.

There's a Netflix documentary about the mission https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81441273

It's testing the Dragon spaceship further out into space, continually pushing the envelope while SpaceX works on Starship in the background, sticking on the final remaining heatshield tiles before its first orbital flight.

The live feed of the launch is: 

 

[MuespachRam]

Just watching the splashdown….what an incredible feat….they are all amazing and you thought those Supers were Inspirational today…. This is truly inspirational, what a great day. 

Edited September 18, 2021 by MuespachRam

[Carl Sagan]

13 minutes ago, MuespachRam said:

Just watching the splashdown….what an incredible feat….they are all amazing and you thought those Supers were Inspirational today…. This is truly inspirational, what a great day. 

Fantastic wasn't it? Everything flawless and only 40 minutes between splashdown and disembarking. I'm sure I've been held on the tarmac at an airport for longer.

Amazing for a civilian crew to spend 3 days in space on their own, and go so very far from Earth, and under such control. It gives me confidence that the week-long "dearMoon" mission for artists to go around the Moon and back isn't as far-fetched as first appeared.  But that's in the mighty Starship which most of this thread is about, rather than the tiny Crew Dragon.

[MuespachRam]

1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

Fantastic wasn't it? Everything flawless and only 40 minutes between splashdown and disembarking. I'm sure I've been held on the tarmac at an airport for longer.

Amazing for a civilian crew to spend 3 days in space on their own, and go so very far from Earth, and under such control. It gives me confidence that the week-long "dearMoon" mission for artists to go around the Moon and back isn't as far-fetched as first appeared.  But that's in the mighty Starship which most of this thread is about, rather than the tiny Crew Dragon.

Yeah It was amazing… I was astonished how well they all looked, they bounced out of the capsule. Brilliant 

[Stive Pesley]

can't be arsed to start a new thread, but this is interesting (although will probably come to nothing)

https://www.space.com/china-yutu-2-moon-rover-cube-shaped-object-photos

They found a "mystery hut" on the moon!

[Reggie Greenwood]

On 16/11/2020 at 15:31, Carl Sagan said:

For those who want to see the rudimentary Starship on the test stand, this is SN8 being readied for its 15km flight. It's the first of the prototypes to have the nosecone and flaps fitted. Above it we see the Moon, where as I said some adapted Starships may go, but above that we see Mars, the real target.

Starship itself stands 50m tall (9m diameter) with Super Heavy an additional 70m, so when they're mated together for flights into Earth orbit, it will be the tallest rocket ever built, but more importantly will have much bigger carrying capacity than anything that's gone before.

Nothing new here had one like that when I was a kid ?

[Carl Sagan]

Time to revive the thread as Elon is giving a new presentation tonight (officially 2am UK time, but will probably be late). We're getting close to the very first orbital flight test and behind him during the presentation will be the full stacked Starship atop the SuperHeavy booster. The Starship has its heatshield in place (only on the half of the vehicle leading into the atmosphere on re-entry to save weight) while the rest of both ships is gleaming stainless steel. 

In future, the launch tower will catch the returning SuperHeavy booster in its "chopsticks" arms, which were used this time to lift the Starship and mount it onto the booster below. This is the most powerful rocket ever, beating even the Saturn V. But so what? The real genius of this rocket is that it is designed to be fully and rapidly reusable. Five flights to orbit a day! Able to lift more than all the other rockets in existence can do in a year. And all just for the price of the fuel. It's a total game changer in terms of our chance to become a multiplanetary species. And it looks gorgeous too!

 

[Carl Sagan]

Here's the live feed for those of you who are up, and it may well turn into a recording if you're wanting to watch later.

 

[Carl Sagan]

Quiet on this thread because SpaceX's rapid prototyping of the Mars Starship has been held up for a very long time by the FAA (Federal Aviation Authority) in America. SpaceX wanted to do an orbital flight test with early prototypes, seeing if the Starship upper stage could reach orbit and ditching both that and the Super Heavy booster in the sea afterwards (with controlled landings) to recover those early vessels. But the FAA decided it needed to conduct an environmental assessment to determine if this should be allowed. Despite the fact the Starship has already been chosen by NASA as the vehicle for the forthcoming Moon landings in 2025, so SpaceX really does need to be allowed to get on and build and test the thing to make that deadline.

The environmental assessment has been approved, but SpaceX has had to agree to hundreds of farcical requirements such as "preparing a historical context report of the events of the Mexican and Civil War that took place in the geographic area..."

What this means is during the hiatus SpaceX has been progressing in a different way and built much more advanced prototypes, and the first of these (Starship number 24 prototype and SuperHeavy booster number 7) will likely launch (hopefully to orbit) in the next 4-6 weeks. But with lots of much more advanced engines on the SuperHeavy booster, they may very well now try to catch that on the launch tower (using hydraulic chopsticks) instead of ditching the vessel in the ocean. It's risky as it would likely destroy the launch tower if they failed, but another thing they've been doing while waiting for approval is to build a second launch tower in Florida at Cape Canaveral where they said they'd launch from instead if FAA didn't give the approval.

Here's Ship 24 being tested this week prior to the August launch:

Meanwhile SpaceX has already launched and landed 28 of their smaller orbital class Falcon9 rocket so far this year, going at a rate of one per week, with another launch this Monday. No other company or country has ever landed an orbital class rocket vertically. The closest we've come was the American shuttle program.

[Carl Sagan]

When you're going to fly a rocket you perform what's called a "static fire" of its engines, holding the rocket down and briefly igniting them to test that everything is working. As we approach the very first orbital flight test, what has been strange is that there hadn't been a static fire at Starbase/Boca Chica all year.

The Mars rocket, is made up of two mighty stages, the first stage which is the SuperHeavy booster and then the second, upper stage, which is Starship itself. For Mars, Starship has been designed to achieve what's called "single stage to orbit" to be able to escape Martian gravity and fly people home to Earth as required. But Earth's gravity well is much deeper so we have the addition of the booster for Starship to be able to reach orbit here (where it will refuel and then travel on to Mars).

Last night saw a static fire of both the current prototype booster (Booster 7) and the current prototype Starship (Ship 24) and both went well: 

Then, for good measure, later in the day SpaceX launched 52 more of their Starship satellites. What a company. 

With the static fires now happening, we must be ever closer to the first orbital launch. Hopefully within the next two months.

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

I love all of this, it blows my mind. Then the cynical part of my brain kicks in and defaults to the assumption that space will always be the playground of the rich, not the future of humanity as it should be.

[Carl Sagan]

18 minutes ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

I love all of this, it blows my mind. Then the cynical part of my brain kicks in and defaults to the assumption that space will always be the playground of the rich, not the future of humanity as it should be.

Fantastic! SpaceX and Starship (and Elon) stand for the democratization of space, putting it within reach of everyone. That's why I get frustrated when people lump Musk in with the likes of Bezos and Branson for whom "space" is just the playground of the super rich. Much of it comes down to scale. Ultimately Starship will be able to launch 100 people at a time into orbit and each vehicle will be capable of 5 flights per day. And in the spaceship yard in Texas they will complete a new Starship every week. 

In the past governments would select the handful of people who went to space. With Branson and Bezos you can now pay a few million dollars and go there yourself. For Musk, SpaceX and Starship it's about creating a multiplanetary future for Humanity and for that we will need a self-sustaining city on Mars, and for that we need for hundreds of thousands of people to be able to go this century. That is the mission. And it means it will be far cheaper to buy a return ticket with Musk and SpaceX to go to Mars than it is to pay Bezos or Branson for 5 minutes of zero G in low-Earth orbit.

That's why I started this thread. To show that the time is coming when space can and will be for everyone and to document the journey to reaching that point on the forum. It will take time. And lots of money. To achieve that SpaceX first created reusable rockets to make access to orbit dramatically cheaper, meaning they now launch way more tonnage to orbit than all the other countries and companies in the world combined. Their technology is a decade ahead of the rest and they innovate faster. But that's not enough as industry hasn't caught up with the new demand available, so SpaceX created the Starlink satellite internet system to monetize their incredible launch capability (and preparing for when internet will be needed around the Moon  and Mars). Also, to raise funs for the Mars mission they will work with NASA to land Humans on the Moon first (from 2025 onwards through the Artemis mission) and also take commercial passengers paying big bucks to the space station or for a few days at a time in Earth orbit. But it's all driven by the bigger purpose of leaving the cradle of this island Earth and venturing beyond, permanently. 

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

23 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Fantastic! SpaceX and Starship (and Elon) stand for the democratization of space, putting it within reach of everyone. That's why I get frustrated when people lump Musk in with the likes of Bezos and Branson for whom "space" is just the playground of the super rich. Much of it comes down to scale. Ultimately Starship will be able to launch 100 people at a time into orbit and each vehicle will be capable of 5 flights per day. And in the spaceship yard in Texas they will complete a new Starship every week. 

In the past governments would select the handful of people who went to space. With Branson and Bezos you can now pay a few million dollars and go there yourself. For Musk, SpaceX and Starship it's about creating a multiplanetary future for Humanity and for that we will need a self-sustaining city on Mars, and for that we need for hundreds of thousands of people to be able to go this century. That is the mission. And it means it will be far cheaper to buy a return ticket with Musk and SpaceX to go to Mars than it is to pay Bezos or Branson for 5 minutes of zero G in low-Earth orbit.

That's why I started this thread. To show that the time is coming when space can and will be for everyone and to document the journey to reaching that point on the forum. It will take time. And lots of money. To achieve that SpaceX first created reusable rockets to make access to orbit dramatically cheaper, meaning they now launch way more tonnage to orbit than all the other countries and companies in the world combined. Their technology is a decade ahead of the rest and they innovate faster. But that's not enough as industry hasn't caught up with the new demand available, so SpaceX created the Starlink satellite internet system to monetize their incredible launch capability (and preparing for when internet will be needed around the Moon  and Mars). Also, to raise funs for the Mars mission they will work with NASA to land Humans on the Moon first (from 2025 onwards through the Artemis mission) and also take commercial passengers paying big bucks to the space station or for a few days at a time in Earth orbit. But it's all driven by the bigger purpose of leaving the cradle of this island Earth and venturing beyond, permanently. 

As a species our lifespan is currently tied to the lifespan of the planet we live on, and we seem determined to shorten that at almost every available opportunity.

For humanity as a species to survive we need to expand beyond earth, or develop the technologies required to maintain survivable environments on earth if we are unable to do so. Worst case scenario the R&D that goes in to providing survivable environments on other planets can be used when the inevitable collapse of Earth as a viable ecosystem occurs in future.

That's my very high-level sci-fi take on the future of humanity, assuming we don't wipe ourselves out through sheer stupidity before then of course.

Edited August 10, 2022 by JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta

[Carl Sagan]

Reviving the Starship and Mars thread as we're finally nearing the first Orbital Flight Test. SpaceX continues to proptotype and build new Starships and Super Heavy boosters, and the Raptor engines to power them, but these things become ever more expensive so they're getting less blaisee about blowing them up!

Many hurdles have had to be crossed to reach this point, and there are now only 2 remaining before the world's most powerful rocket makes its first attempt to reach orbit:

1. firing up all 33 engines on the first stage (the Super Heavy booster) while remaining on the launchpad in what is called a "static fire", to make sure everything can be controlled.
2. approval for launch from the FAA, the Federal Aviation Authority.

One of the big hurdles was passed a few days ago, called the wet dress rehearsal (WDR). Here both the aupper stage (the Starship) and the lower first stage were fully fuelled on the launchpad, to make sure nothing untoward happened and the ground systems were working. It went flawlessly. In comparison, when NASA tried to do a WDR for its Artemis/SLS throwaway Moon rocket last year, it was never able to do this successfully, but in the end launched anyway, as they knew they'd look silly if Starship ever launched before them, as it's so much bigger and more powerful, and also fully reusable.

For the Starship WDR, here's the top stage being lifted onto and mated with the bottom stage. It looks unreal, but this is not a render, it's drone footage:

This is the 24th Starship prototype (more than a year old now) and the 7th Super Heavy booster prototype (also relatively old). Several more and better versions have already been built, but in this first test they will probably ditch in the sea when returning from space (the main objective is simply to demonstrate reaching orbit) so they are using old rockets. 

The static fire is llikely to happen earlyish in February. Depending on how well the launchpad (the Orbital Launch Mount) bears up, we should see the flight test in March.

Here's a second video showing the wet dress rehearsal, the rockets turning white with frost because they're full of cryogenic fuel. We live in amazing times. This is designed to take up to 100 humans anywhere in the solar system.

 

[Stive Pesley]

Taking the conversation here where it's a bit more on topic, but I remember when this thread started back in 2020, I was enjoying it and felt excited at the prospect. Didn't really know  very much about Musk at all, but as time goes on his general behaviour on Twitter makes me think that, while he's the best person for this endeavour given he is incredibly rich AND has the will to pursue it -  he's probably the worst person in terms of his decision making, his impulsiveness and his rampant ego

As stated, I genuinely don't think we will ever have a sustainable human colony on Mars. 

I asked questions before about the fact the human body is simply not built to live in gravity other than that of our home planet. There doesn't seem to be an answer to how that will be handled

Also the question of the insane amounts of energy that will need to be generated on Mars to sustain a colony also seems to be lacking a clear answer

But fundamentally, the idea of putting a colony of thousands of people in a small fragile, experimental environment, which will presumably have strict rules is going to be disastrous. Particularly when people will have paid small fortunes to be there. It will make dcfcfans look like a buddhist retreat.

Personally I think that Musk and all his friends should go on the first ship and send for us when they've worked out how to not die/kill each other ?

 

[Carl Sagan]

On 29/01/2023 at 17:10, Stive Pesley said:

Taking the conversation here where it's a bit more on topic, but I remember when this thread started back in 2020, I was enjoying it and felt excited at the prospect. Didn't really know  very much about Musk at all, but as time goes on his general behaviour on Twitter makes me think that, while he's the best person for this endeavour given he is incredibly rich AND has the will to pursue it -  he's probably the worst person in terms of his decision making, his impulsiveness and his rampant ego

As stated, I genuinely don't think we will ever have a sustainable human colony on Mars. 

I asked questions before about the fact the human body is simply not built to live in gravity other than that of our home planet. There doesn't seem to be an answer to how that will be handled

Also the question of the insane amounts of energy that will need to be generated on Mars to sustain a colony also seems to be lacking a clear answer

But fundamentally, the idea of putting a colony of thousands of people in a small fragile, experimental environment, which will presumably have strict rules is going to be disastrous. Particularly when people will have paid small fortunes to be there. It will make dcfcfans look like a buddhist retreat.

Personally I think that Musk and all his friends should go on the first ship and send for us when they've worked out how to not die/kill each other ?

It will be really, really hard. For some of the reasons you mention and others. And there is zero economic reason to do it. So unless someone like Musk who is absurdly rich, one of the greatest innovators and engineers I've seen, and motivated to save Humanity, it will likely never happen. What we call the "short window" will be closed forever, and sooner or later Humanity will go extinct on Earth.

Energy will come from some Mars-based solar, but there can be long planet-wide dust storms. I suspect there will be in-orbit solar too, just as people are experimenting with here as a means of continuous supply and more efficient than after the incoming radiation is weaker by the time it reaches ground level. There is the possibility of geothermal, but we don't know how easy. So the obvious reliable supply will be nuclear. Relatively small nuclear power plants for use in space and on other planets are in development.

There is a massive difference in Humans living in ZeroG (such as the space station) and Humans living in a gravity environment, even if lower like Mars. So Mars would be much, much healthier than life on the ISS. But there are lots of unknowns, probably the biggest being to do with pregnancy. However, space settlement will not occur in isolation - there is continual progress in other areas. One of the key technologies that I think will help will be artificial wombs, which are becoming ever more advanced and I would expect will be fully capable within 2-3 decades which is the sort of timescale that fits.

Starship will also allow us to build rotating space stations to test a lot of the issues through artificially generated gravity.

Musk is trying to democratize space. The vast scale is intended to make this (relatively) cheap. If you want to "begin again in the offworld colonies" it will cost you the price of an average American house, about $300,000. Yes it's a lot of money, but not if you're building a new home there.

I would ask what general behaviour of Musk on Twitter has been bad? He's been funny and democratic and fairly transparent, and is trying to make it a place where a variety of voices can be heard rather than only "left wingers" and "progressives". Whatever someone's political standpoint, surely that's a good thing? 

 

[Stive Pesley]

44 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

It will be really, really hard. For some of the reasons you mention and others. And there is zero economic reason to do it. So unless someone like Musk who is absurdly rich, one of the greatest innovators and engineers I've seen, and motivated to save Humanity, it will likely never happen. What we call the "short window" will be closed forever, and sooner or later Humanity will go extinct on Earth.

I guess this is the bit that doesn't always add up - if he's truly motivated to save humanity then he could extend the short window (which in turn means he has longer to solve the Mars issues)  by using his vast wealth to address a lot of the issues here and now that are hastening the demise of the human race. Wealth inequality is the biggest driver of environmental destruction. Not saying he should just saying it's interesting that he's choosing not to - in preference to the cool optics of colonizing Mars!

53 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Musk is trying to democratize space. The vast scale is intended to make this (relatively) cheap. If you want to "begin again in the offworld colonies" it will cost you the price of an average American house, about $300,000. Yes it's a lot of money, but not if you're building a new home there.

Doesn't feel very democratic - if you're poor then you have no chance of going to Mars. Same as if you're poor you can't afford a Tesla, can't afford to own your own home etc

55 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

I would ask what general behaviour of Musk on Twitter has been bad?

There is a whole thread about it so I won't repeat too much, but generally his behaviour and his decision making seems impulsive and petulant. Kind of what you'd expect from an insanely wealthy man who believes that his wealth makes him right about everything. Plus when you get that rich, you surround yourself with yes-men. No one dares tell him when he's doing something silly. Which is fine when it's a meaningless toy like Twitter, but I wouldn't want to trust his decision making if I was on the way to Mars and there was a problem.