Starship and a Human city on Mars

[Uptherams]

On 16/11/2020 at 15:31, Carl Sagan said:

For those who want to see the rudimentary Starship on the test stand, this is SN8 being readied for its 15km flight. It's the first of the prototypes to have the nosecone and flaps fitted. Above it we see the Moon, where as I said some adapted Starships may go, but above that we see Mars, the real target.

Starship itself stands 50m tall (9m diameter) with Super Heavy an additional 70m, so when they're mated together for flights into Earth orbit, it will be the tallest rocket ever built, but more importantly will have much bigger carrying capacity than anything that's gone before.

For context, you could lay this on the pitch at pride park and it would just fit on the green, beyond the pitch boundaries. 

Crazy just visualising that and how enourmous it will be. 

[Uptherams]

25 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

 

Few humans have done more for the planet than Musk. For decades we were facing Carmageddon with the motor industry not giving a stuff. Elon single-handedly has transitioned the world towards electric cars and sustainable transport, with a heavy focus on solar power too. Reluctantly the traditional car companies are being dragged kicking and screaming in Tesla's wake, but they're all a decade behind now so effectively are already dead. 

 

Forget government's and politicians, it's people like Musk who create the positive change. We could do with 10 more people just like him. 

One project I'm particularly excited about is Starlink. I don't like the encroaching grip ISP's, government's and mega tech and major corporations have on the internet. 

Forget the cloud, Musk will announce plans in the next few years for larger data centres beyond the clouds, in space. 

[ramit]

1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

 

Few humans have done more for the planet than Musk. For decades we were facing Carmageddon with the motor industry not giving a stuff. Elon single-handedly has transitioned the world towards electric cars and sustainable transport, with a heavy focus on solar power too. Reluctantly the traditional car companies are being dragged kicking and screaming in Tesla's wake, but they're all a decade behind now so effectively are already dead. 

You can look after your own planet and want to improve it at the same time as wanting to colonize others. Call me crazy, but I'm speciesist. I want Humanity to survive. We might be the only complex intelligence in the Universe, and if we go that could be the end of intelligence everywhere. Of course the other planets of the solar system should be ours to do with as we see fit, to help protect intelligence in the Universe and let it flourish. 

Meanwhile, Starship is to begin twice monthly test flights from next week, having established a 90 square mile safety zone around Boca Chica, mainly in the ocean, where spaceships will be blown up if they get out of control. 

https://www.krgv.com/news/spacex-planned-9-mile-launch-self-destruct-zone-over-gulf

 

i want humanity to survive, but responsibly.  We have mucked this planet up.  We think we are nature's master, when it is the other way around, for nature can well do without us, but we cannot survive without nature.  IMO, we are greedy, shortsighted, arrogant, self serving, wasteful, irresponsible conceited little brats and need to get our act together and grow up before we can even consider being worthy of laying claim to any other residence.

Am surprised that you consider it likely that we are the only intelligence in this unbelievably vast universe.

https://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-drake-equation/

[Carl Sagan]

33 minutes ago, ramit said:

I am surprised that you consider it likely that we are the only intelligence in this unbelievably vast universe.

https://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-drake-equation/

It's a brilliant observation. You can have no idea how pleased I am you made it. 

This is a topic I think about daily (I'm writing a novel about it, a bit of a homage to my namesake's "Contact") and is exercising many of the world's great minds. It's perhaps the biggest challenge to modern science, trying to combine the ideas of the cosmological principle (that the universe looks largely the same when viewed from anywhere, that the laws of physics apply equally everywhere and there's nothing privileged about our place in the Universe) with our observations that there isn't a shred of evidence for complex life anywhere else in the universe. How long can these ideas remain compatible? 

We tend to think of the Drake Equation as part of old-fashioned SETI when people expected aliens to be listening with radio telescopes for whispers of intelligence elsewhere. Nowadays a lot of things are framed through the lens of Robin Hanson's Great Filter. 

Every nook and cranny here on Earth is teeming with life. Everything out there in the vastness of the Universe can be explained by dead processes. It's a conundrum.

[ramit]

30 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

It's a brilliant observation. You can have no idea how pleased I am you made it. 

This is a topic I think about daily (I'm writing a novel about it, a bit of a homage to my namesake's "Contact") and is exercising many of the world's great minds. It's perhaps the biggest challenge to modern science, trying to combine the ideas of the cosmological principle (that the universe looks largely the same when viewed from anywhere, that the laws of physics apply equally everywhere and there's nothing privileged about our place in the Universe) with our observations that there isn't a shred of evidence for complex life anywhere else in the universe. How long can these ideas remain compatible? 

We tend to think of the Drake Equation as part of old-fashioned SETI when people expected aliens to be listening with radio telescopes for whispers of intelligence elsewhere. Nowadays a lot of things are framed through the lens of Robin Hanson's Great Filter. 

Every nook and cranny here on Earth is teeming with life. Everything out there in the vastness of the Universe can be explained by dead processes. It's a conundrum.

Hanson's Great Filter is built on a rather shaky foundation.  It supposes that our instruments of observation are fully capable of detecting signs of intelligent life, that our ability to correctly read their measurements is sound and so forth.  It does not consider the possibility that we can only see what we are allowed to see at this time, that advanced civilizations would take the protective steps of cloaking their whereabouts to less advanced races, such as ourselves.

The Big Bang Theory has had many doubters, such as Einstein himself. From Wiki:  "It violates the first law of thermodynamics, which says you can't create or destroy matter or energy. Critics claim that the big bang theory suggests the universe began out of nothing. ... The first is that the big bang doesn't address the creation of the universe, but rather the evolution of it."

We can discuss, formulate theories and even arrive at a conclusion of how life can spring from chemical interaction in a certain sort of timing and environment, but we still won't be much nearer to solving the greatest mystery of all, consciousness, which i believe is the key to understanding, life, ourselves and this universe we inhabit.

[TigerTedd]

12 hours ago, ramit said:

i want humanity to survive, but responsibly.  We have mucked this planet up.  We think we are nature's master, when it is the other way around, for nature can well do without us, but we cannot survive without nature.  IMO, we are greedy, shortsighted, arrogant, self serving, wasteful, irresponsible conceited little brats and need to get our act together and grow up before we can even consider being worthy of laying claim to any other residence.

Am surprised that you consider it likely that we are the only intelligence in this unbelievably vast universe.

https://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-drake-equation/

Nature may well get on fine without us, but what’s the point, really, without anyone to observe it. If a tree falls in the woods, and there’s no one to hear it, does it make a sound? Likewise, if the universe  keeps ticking along, but there’s no one to observe it, does it really exist?

[Sith Happens]

24 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Nature may well get on fine without us, but what’s the point, really, without anyone to observe it. If a tree falls in the woods, and there’s no one to hear it, does it make a sound? Likewise, if the universe  keeps ticking along, but there’s no one to observe it, does it really exist?

If a football match happens with no fans did it really happen ?  I like your train of thought,  I'm calling for results this season to be dismissed. 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

12 minutes ago, Sith Happens said:

If a football match happens with no fans did it really happen ?  I like your train of thought,  I'm calling for results this season to be dismissed. 

I appreciate this is lost on those under 40

[Sith Happens]

2 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I appreciate this is lost on those under 40

Supporting Derby is like having a really bad dream right now. 

[Carl Sagan]

12 hours ago, ramit said:

Hanson's Great Filter is built on a rather shaky foundation.  It supposes that our instruments of observation are fully capable of detecting signs of intelligent life, that our ability to correctly read their measurements is sound and so forth.  It does not consider the possibility that we can only see what we are allowed to see at this time, that advanced civilizations would take the protective steps of cloaking their whereabouts to less advanced races, such as ourselves.

The Big Bang Theory has had many doubters, such as Einstein himself. From Wiki:  "It violates the first law of thermodynamics, which says you can't create or destroy matter or energy. Critics claim that the big bang theory suggests the universe began out of nothing. ... The first is that the big bang doesn't address the creation of the universe, but rather the evolution of it."

We can discuss, formulate theories and even arrive at a conclusion of how life can spring from chemical interaction in a certain sort of timing and environment, but we still won't be much nearer to solving the greatest mystery of all, consciousness, which i believe is the key to understanding, life, ourselves and this universe we inhabit.

Hanson is a good Bayesian. He adjusts his reasoning based on his observations, so the Great Filter supposes nothing over the longer term, but is right to use current knowledge to draw conclusions. Over the past 60 years or so we have made quite remarkable progress in astrobiology. We now know every star comes with planets, that it's a straightforward process to colonize the Galaxy in a million years or so, and that Earth is a relatively young planet in the Milky Way so others would have had headstarts on us of billions of years. But now with instruments like the WISE telescope we can also look beyond and see there are apparently no alien dyson spheres in the nearest million other galaxies we observe. The further and better we see, there remains nothing there. The next constraints will be the likes of the James Webb Space Telescope and the much better analysis of atmospheres around exoplanets. Maybe things will change, because you're right that we still can't observe anything like as much as we'd like, but we can see a lot. It's my belief it's telling us something fundamental about the Universe and the nature of reality.

Consciousness is an interesting one. In my day job I'm a publisher (for instance Robin Hanson's editor, and Milan Cirkovic's for his work on the Fermi Paradox), and I'm working with a brilliant author on a fascinating book at the moment that is a very interesting exploration of consciousness, but of your three areas it's mainly about understanding ourselves. But probably not out for a couple of years if I can persuade the powers that be to let me sign it up!

 

[ramit]

3 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

Nature may well get on fine without us, but what’s the point, really, without anyone to observe it. If a tree falls in the woods, and there’s no one to hear it, does it make a sound? Likewise, if the universe  keeps ticking along, but there’s no one to observe it, does it really exist?

That's such a wonderfully egocentric approach.  The point of nature is to be, without or without us, it still holds a purpose to all the other living beings.  The tree question is flawed of course, the animals hear it falling, the insects, the trees feel the ground vibrate.  i know that it's potentially upsetting to many, but nothing is dependent on us, except we.  Likewise, the animals can see the stars at night and even if they didn't, it's illogical to assume that the universe is dependent on observation, unless we are approaching the matter from the Holographic Universe model, which is of course a possibility and in that case i am wrong from a-z, except for my mention of consciousness being key.

Edited November 28, 2020 by ramit

[Carl Sagan]

The 15km test flight (the reason I finally got round to starting this thread) has actually been put back to "no earlier than Wednesday", and potentially a little further into December. That's with the 8th prototype, called SN8 (SN = serial number). But what's brilliant is the backlog of prototypes, each better than the last, which is building up on site. For example, here's the completed SN9 in the hangar (called the High Bay):

Sometimes the improvements are incremental, sometimes they're a step change. The latest prototype being worked on is SN15, and Elon says this will be a major improvement on the previous versions. 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Carl Sagan

[Carl Sagan]

The NOTAM (notice to airmen) has been approved by the authorities, creating an air exclusion zone above the Boca Chica launch (and landing) site. This means the 15km altitude test flight can go ahead, any time from Friday (all being well) through to Sunday (in case there are delays). 

If the Starship flies properly and reaches the target height, it then descends (belly flops) over the Gulf of Mexico until the last moment. Only if everything is working well, will it make a late move away from the water to attempt a controlled vertical landing. 

[maxjam]

@Carl Sagan

Not looked at this yet other than the trailer, looks like it might be worth a watch though ?

https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/80221410

Alien Worlds

Applying the laws of life on Earth to the rest of the galaxy, this series blends science fact and fiction to imagine alien life on other planets.

[Carl Sagan]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

@Carl Sagan

Not looked at this yet other than the trailer, looks like it might be worth a watch though ?

https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/80221410

Alien Worlds

Applying the laws of life on Earth to the rest of the galaxy, this series blends science fact and fiction to imagine alien life on other planets.

Thanks! Sounds a little like something I made earlier:

 

[Carl Sagan]

For those looking forward to watching the first test flight tomorrow, it's now gone back to "no earlier than Monday". 

The launchpad the prototype is on can't take much more punishment from the pre-flight tests of the super-powerful Raptor engines, so I'd be surprised if they're delaying to perform more engine tests (static fires). 

NASA's relationship with SpaceX has occasionally been tense because NASA has sometimes claimed SpaceX is concentrating too much on the Starship program at the expense of the Dragon contracts for the International Space Station. 

This Saturday sees the first launch of the new SpaceX Cargo Dragon to the ISS, taking up an important new airlock among other things. My sense is that it would look terrible if something went wrong (and it's a new vehicle) at the same time SpaceX is slapping itself on the back for the first launch of its Mars rocket, so I think this may be a political decision. 

 

[maxjam]

Thought I'd add a couple of general space tweets to this thread - we really should start a separate Space thread for general info though as they are nothing about Mars!  Interesting tweets though (play the 2nd one to see what our night sky will look like billions of years in the future...)

 

 

 

[Carl Sagan]

Traditional rocket development happens in secret, far away from prying eyes. A problem with building your prototypes outdoors in a field in Texas in front of a global audience of space fans, paying for 24/7 streams, is that schedules keep changing. Indoors in secret, we'd never know. 

If you'd set a reminder to watch the 15km first test flight tonight, I'm afraid it's not now happening. It's been changed to tomorrow (hopefully) or Wednesday as a backup, with the altitude reduced to 12.5km (41,000 feet). I don't know why the altitude is lower. It may be SpaceX thinks they can test everything they need flying to a lower altitude or, for a very first flight of an experimental spaceship built in a field, the Federal Aviation Authority might have insisted for safety reasons. 

However, it turns out that SpaceX will likely do another static fire test tonight. That normally only fires the engines (this SN8 prototype has 3 Raptor engines) for a second or so, but at this early stage of the journey to Mars, it's still quite exciting. 

[Carl Sagan]

Today's the day of the first proper test flight (all being well). We don't know when, but anytime from now (though they've not started fuelling up yet) over the next severak hours. There are several live feeds.

I'm using NASA Spaceflight because it has commentary so I will hear when something starts to happen:

https://youtu.be/OLpN8Cco3mU

Better quality but mostly quiet is the LabPadre feed:

https://youtu.be/STGWOEKhrtI

Then there's an official SpaceX feed that's not yet live but well over 100k people are already waiting for it!

https://youtu.be/nf83yzzme2I

Apparently SpaceX beginss in five minutes. The "tank farm" (which they fuel te rocket from) is already buzzing with activity.

[Carl Sagan]

Finally we're underway. The test flight will be in the next hour unless there's a problem. The flaps have been extended and fuelling has begun. Also, the NASA high-altitude tracking plane has taken off from Florida and is heading to Texas to monitor the flight, hoping the Starship doesn't explode before it reaches high altitude. It may well!

The SpaceX feed still isn't live, but there's commentary on NASA Spaceflight. I'll see if I can get it to embed this time: