Starship and a Human city on Mars

[Carl Sagan]

20 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Sounds like people would have to be near it to make it safe, which sounds like not the place you want to be when it decides to spontaneously combust. But as much as you can gather tone through text, I guess from your tone that no one got hurt.

Pad completely clear for a very large distance. The "safing" processes are automated (though didn't work well enough in this case!). No one hurt at all. And as well as the telemetry on the way down, there might still be some useful info from the wreckage (eg how the heatshield tiles held up). Here it is:

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Carl Sagan

[maxjam]

50 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

We're trying to launch in 5 minutes if anyone wants to watch live

 

 

Never get bored of watching them land upright ?

[Carl Sagan]

13 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Never get bored of watching them land upright ?

But also an impressive and unexpected encore!

[Wolfie]

On 03/03/2021 at 23:34, Carl Sagan said:

Third time's a charm. Kind of. This one landed safely, even if it was leaning a little. But then, a few minutes later as they were making the vehicle safe, it rose back into the air and blew up. I think a methane leak.

Happens to us all, mate.

[Stive Pesley]

An interesting piece about the challenges of how we power an inhabited base on Mars in the future

https://medium.com/predict/mars-big-problem-does-elon-know-7453dcb5feaf

TL;DR with great difficulty

 

[Carl Sagan]

On 10/03/2021 at 09:12, Stive Pesley said:

An interesting piece about the challenges of how we power an inhabited base on Mars in the future

https://medium.com/predict/mars-big-problem-does-elon-know-7453dcb5feaf

TL;DR with great difficulty

 

Thanks. Interesting, but I suggest far too negative. But right to point out that a colony will require a lot of energy.

Initially there's a lot of space on Mars for a lot of solar panels. and with people there we can clean the dust off most of the time. Then the option not even mentioned here is space-based solar power, with stations in orbit around Mars in permanent sunshine beaming the energy down. We're getting closer to this on Earth and the technology is instantly transferable to a Mars colony. Then nuclear is an option within a much shorter timeframe than the 200 years mentioned. The writer doesn't understand the accelerating pace of technological progress. Any Martian colony will likely end up refining its own uranium fairly quickly when we see that technology fairly easy to develop and maintain on Earth.

With a spacefaring capacity on Mars it's so much easier to also industrialize the asteroid belt, as you don't have to escape Earth's deep gravity, so that will happen within 50 years not 200. Though the point of Mars is that it does have the resources needed in situ.

The piece talks so much about a colony of 12 people and doesn't grasp the transformational nature of what SpaceX is trying to achieve. This is about the democratization of space. It's not about 12 people or even 12,000. It's hundreds of thousands. The Starships being built are cheap and relatively easy to build and SpaceX will be building one a week and then even faster. This means even in the early days there will be a vast cargo capability to Mars, taking far more than anyone would at one time (and even now for this author) have thought possible to carry to the red planet.

 

[Stive Pesley]

On 13/03/2021 at 17:48, Carl Sagan said:

Thanks. Interesting, but I suggest far too negative

Yeah it did seem to have quite a negative tone, but then the last paragraph at least attempted to redeem itself

Quote

However, we still have hope. We know that our current society is power-hungry, and we have grown into fat cats off of it, but we don’t have to live like this. Humans are so successful because we can rapidly adapt our behaviour to thrive, we can do the same on Mars. While I have shown here that the task of powering a Martian base/colony is challenging, I have also shown that it isn’t impossible. We can do it. It will be difficult, but we are humans, and we are damn good at difficult!

Which is essentially what you are saying - none of the challenges are insurmountable. I think what he's done is assumed that because no one in the media is talking about the boring problem of how you power a martian colony, it means that no one has thought of it. I'm certain that can't possibly be the case!

[Carl Sagan]

Here's the official video of the Starship SN10 test flight all the way through to the landing, without the subsequent explosion. The landing footage is remarkable. 

The next prototype, SN11, is on the launchpad and may fly as early as Friday. 

 

[Carl Sagan]

There's been a lot of press the last couple days for this Mars city design (NuWa) by a Spanish firm of architects:

There's a slightly more detailed video at https://www.euronews.com/living/2021/03/19/plans-for-the-first-sustainable-city-on-mars-unveiled

[maxjam]

Not exactly the right thread for this, but it is pretty cool!

 

[Carl Sagan]

Well done @maxjamfor reviving the thread in the light of yesterday's Yuri's night, the 60th anniversary of the first voyage of a Human into space.

A lot's happened since my last updates. Given the buzz about building a Human city on Mars, my alter ego was invited onto Russia Today (or all places) to talk about that. It doesn't seem to be on YouTube so sadly this isn't embedded and it means sliding to 12:25 or so to begin: https://www.rt.com/shows/sputnik/519237-big-apple-red-planet

I can't believe they edited out all my talk about Boca Chica and what's going on there! I know I should speak more quickly too give them time to fit more in.

In Boca Chica, Starship prototype SN11 launched in a peasouper of fog, so couldn't be seen. It exploded just above the pad when trying to land, and again this could not be seen. What were SpaceX thinking? If they'd waited an hour the early morning Texan fog would have cleared.

This was a setback. However, the company had already decided to skip planned prototypes SN12-14 and go straight to 15 which is intended to be a very significant improvement on previous versions. This is now on the launchpad and had the first test of its fuel tanks yesterday. It looks swish and has a loot more hexagonal heatshield tiles, but nowhere near as many as SN16 which is also almost ready to go. I'd expect SN15 to fly within the next 10 days.

[Stive Pesley]

12 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

A lot's happened since my last updates. Given the buzz about building a Human city on Mars, my alter ego was invited onto Russia Today (or all places) to talk about that. It doesn't seem to be on YouTube so sadly this isn't embedded and it means sliding to 12:25 or so to begin: https://www.rt.com/shows/sputnik/519237-big-apple-red-planet

Cheers for the link - a good chat, and as a fellow baldie I feel your pain when it comes to Zoom backdrops making your head look like a weird ever-changing shape!

[Ghost of Clough]

2 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

Cheers for the link - a good chat, and as a fellow baldie I feel your pain when it comes to Zoom backdrops making your head look like a weird ever-changing shape!

That's not a Zoom backdrop causing that... it's what the atmosphere on Mars does to your head.

[maxjam]

Before we go to Mars we have to go back to the moon.  I was to young to understand what was going on the last time we set foot on the moon, really looking forwards to seeing it in the near future.

 

[Carl Sagan]

The boldest act by NASA since the Apollo missions, showing the most ambition since Kennedy's 1961 "We choose to go to the Moon" speech. 

There were three bids still in the running for the contract for the Human Landing System to take astronauts back to the Moon as part of the Artemis mission. The other two were far more expensive than SpaceX, but were "safe" ideas, essentially trying to recreate the Lunar Module from the 1960s, but a little bigger. And would largely have just resulted in more cushy government contracts to do the same old, same old. 

In contrast, SpaceX has self-funded the development of Starship for five years, risking bankruptcy along the way. If it can succeed, it represents a step change in what NASA can do on the Moon, delivering thousands of tonnes of cargo for a significant Human presence. 

This is a political decision in that the Chinese and Russians have signed an accord to build a Moonbase together. Meanwhile, Biden has nominated the deeply unpopular (in the space world) Bill Nelson to run NASA, now awaiting Senate ratification. 

If NASA had waited, Nelson wouldn't have allowed SpaceX to have the contract, and the Russians and Chinese would have the Moon to themselves. Instead, if (and it is an "if") Starship can succeed, NASA has a hundred times more capacity than other nations. That's my reading of it anyway. 

[Carl Sagan]

Last night Starship prototype SN15 (they skipped forward 4 numbers after SN11) delivered a largely perfect test flight, and landing. A very soft landing too, with the six stubby legs holding up fine. There was a methane fire on the landing pad for several minutes after touchdown, but eventually the automated systems "safed" the vehicle and today it looks almost good to go again.

There was a lot of cloud cover so the video of the whole flight isn't great, but here are the launch and landing highlights:

It's a fantastic achievement. There were a lot of improvements on this prototype, preparing for the future orbital flight test. For instance you can see the black band of heatshield tiles. Only one fell off! 

A Human colony on Mars is a step closer today. As is a return to the Moon now Starship has won the NASA contract for that!

[Carl Sagan]

Finally SpaceX has posted its own tremendous footage of the successful SN15 test flight:

SpaceX has designed its own Thunderbirds-style Starship transporter which secured the rocket without a crane and took it back up to the launchpad, where it's currently standing waiting to be prepared for a second test flight. Which would be remarkable.

[Carl Sagan]

In other Mars news, NASA today signed a contract with SpaceX to demonstrate refueling in orbit (space people bizarrely call it "on orbit") by 2022:

This is important for NASA's Artemis Moon programme and also the Mar settlement plan, as the Starships will need to refuel for both. It comes about because Jeff Bezos and his Blue Origin have halted the main Human Landing System in the Senate, of which this would be a part. NASA can't afford to wait, so is getting the money to SpaceX  by another means to be able to keep the ambitious 2024 schedule on track. That's one possible reading of it anyway. 

[Carl Sagan]

No launches for a while because, after a successful high-altitude Starship flight, SpaceX has been preparing for an orbital attempt. For that they have needed to build the orbital launchpad and launch tower, and the first Super Heavy boosters. 

The Mars rocket is fully reusable in two stages, the Super Heavy booster with Starship sitting on top of it. The booster will return to the launch site in Texas and, rather than landing, will be caught by the launch tower!

The first booster (designated Booster 3) has now rolled out to a test pad to check different elements. Here it is en route:

This one won't fly. But Booster 4, I think with Starship SN20 atop of it, will attempt an orbital test flight in the next couple of months. 

You might have heard that Amazon's Jeff Bezos plans to go "to space" on 20th July (and Richard Branson on 11th). Here's the SpaceX rocket to scale alongside Bezos's Blue Origin rocket (and the SpaceX Falcon 9 and Saturn V moon rocket):

When you see what SpaceX is doing versus the Saturn V, and that it will be reusable, and that it is designed to carry 100 tonnes into orbit, the scale of the ambition becomes clearer.

[i-Ram]

8 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Here's the SpaceX rocket to scale alongside Bezos's Blue Origin rocket (and the SpaceX Falcon 9 and Saturn V moon rocket):

The new Ann Summers catalogue just arrived Carl?