Coronavirus

[Red Ram]

15 minutes ago, Albert said:

No, I think the UK should have made sure that the systems were in place before opening up, like other countries have done. You say that 'the economy couldn't take that', but the economy can't take what's happening now, or what's to come next. See later in the poster for more detail thoughts on this matter. 

So, you think that Singapore and Hong Kong grow their own? 

You can question China's numbers overall, but there is no evidence of a large second wave occurring there, and there is nothing to suggest something untoward about Hong Kong's figures. 

I'm not sure what point you think you're making with Singapore to be honest. It being a city state forces it to be more connected with the outside World. 

Are you kidding? Singapore, Hong Kong and Korea rely on the interconnected nature of their regions. 

Equally, you can close borders, and have restrictions on travel anywhere. 

Compared to some countries performing much worse, but on global standards are far behind the leaders. 

Everyone has a 'covid risk'. 

This is the whole point, it's not 'lockdowns or no lockdowns', it's about the whole response together. Vietnam, Taiwan and New Zealand weren't successful because they put in harsh lockdowns and called it a day, it's because they've had well managed responses throughout, and have had tools to deal with outbreaks as they arrived. 

Covid normal isn't some fantasy, it is achievable with a well managed response. We don't know what the end of this will look like, there are too many unanswered questions, but we can prepare for the long haul, and live this Covid normal for as long as we need. 

Yes you're agreeing with the link I posted. This is solvable. Other countries have done it. Our government has failed us

[Albert]

4 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Yes, they should have. But the systems weren't ready. And still aren't. We couldn't have waited that long, because that'd have meant we never opened. It's easy for someone who (and I'm making an assumption here) will not have to deal with the economic permutations of lockdown to call for it. 

It shouldn't have taken this long in the first place. 

Equally, a targeted lockdown, and move towards 'Covid normal' would cost a lot less in the long run. What your advocating for is not fixing your roof because it's too expensive. It'll cost a lot more to clean up the water damage in the long run. 

4 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Hong Kong is part of China. We have no evidence of anything from China, we don't get reliable data. I don't think it's a useful example in the slightest. 

There are international observers, and while they're innuendo against China's figures, there's nothing all that concrete. Given that there's no evidence of a second wave in any case, it's still worth discussing, even if you feel the numbers aren't entirely accurate. 

The same can also be said of other countries, including the UK, which from the outside looks like they've diddled their death figures quite harshly with this '28 days' rule. 

4 minutes ago, Andicis said:

It's a lot easier to manage a singular city than a large nation of many, is it not? 

Which is why we compare to a range of different countries. Taiwan, Vietnam, etc, all together, seeing that while they indeed have different characteristics, they have achieved Covid normal. 

4 minutes ago, Andicis said:

South Korea already had good frame work before the covid pandemic began due to the outbreak of SARS. They also had a culture which was quite tolerant to wearing masks and cleanliness anyway. Again, I don't want to be comparing city states to huge European nations. It's unhelpful. 

So, what you're saying is that the UK could achieve what they have, but weren't well prepared, so are behind the 8-ball? 

4 minutes ago, Andicis said:

You can't close borders in Europe. 

They said that in Australia, yet here we are. At the very least they could be stricter with quarantine requirements, which is a huge part of the reason Australia has it under control. 

4 minutes ago, Andicis said:

I have a risk of being run over by a car. I cross roads still. 

You getting run over by a car tends not to leads to other people you know getting hit by the same car. Very different types of risks. 

2 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

As Brit’s we let ourselves down massively by not obeying the 14 day quarantine. The percentage of Brits who openly admit to going out whilst they should be in quarantine is disturbing. We also have a tendency to gather in small enclosed spaces frequently. A recipe for disaster. 

 

This was, in part, what went wrong in Victoria too. This is the thing though, it's not all about lockdowns, there are plenty of measures of control, which together, work well. 

[Andicis]

1 minute ago, Albert said:

It shouldn't have taken this long in the first place. 

Equally, a targeted lockdown, and move towards 'Covid normal' would cost a lot less in the long run. What your advocating for is not fixing your roof because it's too expensive. It'll cost a lot more to clean up the water damage in the long run. 

That's irrelevant, the point is it wasn't there. We can't be in limbo indefinitely. 

 

2 minutes ago, Albert said:

There are international observers, and while they're innuendo against China's figures, there's nothing all that concrete. Given that there's no evidence of a second wave in any case, it's still worth discussing, even if you feel the numbers aren't entirely accurate. 

If there was, would we know? We didn't even know covid existed until 2020 and it was in Europe before then. Again though, comparing an authoritarian regime with a parliamentary democracy is tough. 

 

4 minutes ago, Albert said:

Which is why we compare to a range of different countries. Taiwan, Vietnam, etc, all together, seeing that while they indeed have different characteristics, they have achieved Covid normal. 

They all have one thing in common. They're in Asia. Not Europe. I refuse to believe between the entirety of Europe EVERY country has mismanaged the pandemic, as you seem to insinuate. Maybe, it's just not possible. 

 

5 minutes ago, Albert said:

So, what you're saying is that the UK could achieve what they have, but weren't well prepared, so are behind the 8-ball? 

They didn't have the infrastructure due to mismanagement, and the CCP covered up the existence of the virus. 

 

5 minutes ago, Albert said:

They said that in Australia, yet here we are. At the very least they could be stricter with quarantine requirements, which is a huge part of the reason Australia has it under control. 

I know nothing about Australia. I won't argue one way or another. It's not possible in Europe, though. 

[Albert]

Just now, Andicis said:

That's irrelevant, the point is it wasn't there. We can't be in limbo indefinitely. 

Of course it's relevant, that's my whole point. The lockdowns were ended prematurely because the UK never had a real plan, and that's why they are where they are. 

Just now, Andicis said:

If there was, would we know? We didn't even know covid existed until 2020 and it was in Europe before then. Again though, comparing an authoritarian regime with a parliamentary democracy is tough. 

Ah yes, so one country that achieved Covid normal is authoritarian, so let's just ignore them all? 

Just now, Andicis said:

They all have one thing in common. They're in Asia. Not Europe. I refuse to believe between the entirety of Europe EVERY country has mismanaged the pandemic, as you seem to insinuate. Maybe, it's just not possible. 

Yet Australia and New Zealand, which are culturally largely European, have achieved it...

Just now, Andicis said:

They didn't have the infrastructure due to mismanagement, and the CCP covered up the existence of the virus. 

Whether the CCP covered it up isn't really relevant to the discussion. 

Just now, Andicis said:

I know nothing about Australia. I won't argue one way or another. It's not possible in Europe, though. 

Again, why isn't it possible in Europe? Is Asia just inherently better? 

[Andicis]

1 minute ago, Albert said:

Of course it's relevant, that's my whole point. The lockdowns were ended prematurely because the UK never had a real plan, and that's why they are where they are. 

But that just means you wanted the UK to never end lockdown. Which is easy to say as someone who won't suffer as a result. 

 

2 minutes ago, Albert said:

Ah yes, so one country that achieved Covid normal is authoritarian, so let's just ignore them all? 

noun: strawman

1.

an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

"her familiar procedure of creating a straw man by exaggerating their approach"

3 minutes ago, Albert said:

Whether the CCP covered it up isn't really relevant to the discussion. 

How do you figure that? Is it not MUCH easier to prepare for a virus you know is coming than one that's been hidden from you? The answer is simple. It's entirely relevant. 

 

4 minutes ago, Albert said:

Yet Australia and New Zealand, which are culturally largely European, have achieved it...

Nope. I'm not doing this with you again. I'm losing my sanity. I'm leaving it here, I can't think of any way we reach a consensus. You keep calling for a lockdown that you don't have to suffer the consequences of. 

[Albert]

2 minutes ago, Andicis said:

But that just means you wanted the UK to never end lockdown. Which is easy to say as someone who won't suffer as a result. 

...no, it means that I wanted the UK to actually develop a coherent plan and go with it. 

2 minutes ago, Andicis said:

noun: strawman

1.

an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

"her familiar procedure of creating a straw man by exaggerating their approach"

This isn't a strawman, you did indeed ignore all the other examples and focussed in on China. If anything, you making it solely about China, and targetting them being authoritarian is an example of a strawman though. 

2 minutes ago, Andicis said:

How do you figure that? Is it not MUCH easier to prepare for a virus you know is coming than one that's been hidden from you? The answer is simple. It's entirely relevant. 

Because countries that were more connected with China coped much better with it. Australia has more visitors from China have the UK, including direct flights from Wuhan, yet managed that effectively. The same goes for much of Asia. The UK had plenty of time to plan and prepare. 

Whether China actually obfuscated things as claimed is an interesting question, and I look forward to finding out more in the coming years, but it's moot in this discussion. 

2 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Nope. I'm not doing this with you again. I'm losing my sanity. I'm leaving it here, I can't think of any way we reach a consensus. You keep calling for a lockdown that you don't have to suffer the consequences of. 

Well, you never did it in the first place, you just repeated simple, already countered points. 

You keep saying that 'I'm calling for a lockdown', when what I'm actually calling for is basically an end to them, but doing so in way that includes long term control. Not doing so now will only make the future lockdowns worse. 

[Gritstone Ram]

4 hours ago, Red Ram said:

If you want a rational perspective read this.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The author argues against continually relying exclusively lockdowns and also against the Herd Immunity approach.

It's a very compelling analysis by a recognised expert in the field and has certainly changed my perspective. It goes beyond the binary pro-Lockdown/anti-Lockdown debate (I mean none of us actually WANT Lockdowns it's just the least worst option...) and argues for rational management of the Pandemic as successfully demonstrated by a number of other countries.

I read it expecting to disagree with it but it's certainly changed my perspective because I wasn't aware of the extent to which life could effectively return to something like normal if you happen to live in a country with a competent government.

 

I am more interested in how Germany have identified 300k + cases and only 9k + deaths. They are more aligned to us in both climate economy and culture.

[Gone]

[CWC1983]

9 hours ago, jimmyp said:

That’s not meant to sound preachy. Sorry if it does. 

No problem mate, it didn't come across like that. 

I'm a rule follower, and I'm getting frustrated things are heading back into where we were in April. The app just tipped me over the edge. 

All's good now? 

 

[ramesses]

1 hour ago, Van Gritters said:

I am more interested in how Germany have identified 300k + cases and only 9k + deaths. They are more aligned to us in both climate economy and culture.

As far as I can tell there are probably a number of interacting factors but a key one was acting very quickly and putting into place WHO recommended procedures that involved developing an effective and strategic test, trace and isolating system. They devolved responsibility to the various German states (instead of centralising and handing over responsibility to private companies). Add into this mix other positives such as consistent messaging, good pharma companies, and high quality healthcare (not trimmed to the bone).

Part of the reason they have fewer deaths is that their find, test, trace, isolate systems - and also the important support and follow up of those in isolation - meant that they picked up cases that needed hospital treatment very early - and early treatment always increases chances of survival.

Perhaps partly as a consequence of their relative success in dealing with covid, the majority of the German people seem to trust their leaders to do the right thing and seem likely to respond positively if further changes are needed to address the pandemic.

Basically the UK didn’t develop a find, test, trace, isolate, and support system until summer. If what we’d developed late in the day had been any good then SAGE would probably not have been proposing their recent circuit break (lockdown). Such brief lockdowns in the UK seem inevitable unless we develop an FTTIS system that works.

[GboroRam]

7 hours ago, Andicis said:

Tell me exactly how the UK lockdown wasn't proper though? Everything was shut and we were only allowed to the supermarket or to exercise. And we opened up much slower than the rest of Europe. 

Maybe we could have been a bit more tough on the lockdown, don't you think?

May:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53190209

June:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-lockdown.html

[ariotofmyown]

38 minutes ago, ramesses said:

As far as I can tell there are probably a number of interacting factors but a key one was acting very quickly and putting into place WHO recommended procedures that involved developing an effective and strategic test, trace and isolating system. They devolved responsibility to the various German states (instead of centralising and handing over responsibility to private companies). Add into this mix other positives such as consistent messaging, good pharma companies, and high quality healthcare (not trimmed to the bone).

Part of the reason they have fewer deaths is that their find, test, trace, isolate systems - and also the important support and follow up of those in isolation - meant that they picked up cases that needed hospital treatment very early - and early treatment always increases chances of survival.

Perhaps partly as a consequence of their relative success in dealing with covid, the majority of the German people seem to trust their leaders to do the right thing and seem likely to respond positively if further changes are needed to address the pandemic.

Basically the UK didn’t develop a find, test, trace, isolate, and support system until summer. If what we’d developed late in the day had been any good then SAGE would probably not have been proposing their recent circuit break (lockdown). Such brief lockdowns in the UK seem inevitable unless we develop an FTTIS system that works.

Agree with all that, but you missed out that we just have a "history of been more freedom loving".

Imagine if someone on here suggested that reason as to why Germany have been better than us in dealing with Covid. They would be laughed out of town.

Now imagine we have a leader who genuinely said that to Parliament when asked why Germany were doing better. 

You don't have to imagine. We have no hope with the current regime.

[ariotofmyown]

6 hours ago, Red Ram said:

If you want a rational perspective read this.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The author argues against continually relying exclusively lockdowns and also against the Herd Immunity approach.

It's a very compelling analysis by a recognised expert in the field and has certainly changed my perspective. It goes beyond the binary pro-Lockdown/anti-Lockdown debate (I mean none of us actually WANT Lockdowns it's just the least worst option...) and argues for rational management of the Pandemic as successfully demonstrated by a number of other countries.

I read it expecting to disagree with it but it's certainly changed my perspective because I wasn't aware of the extent to which life could effectively return to something like normal if you happen to live in a country with a competent government.

 

Great article, thanks for posting.

[Gone]

2 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Agree with all that, but you missed out that we just have a "history of been more freedom loving".

Imagine if someone on here suggested that reason as to why Germany have been better than us in dealing with Covid. They would be laughed out of town.

Now imagine we have a leader who genuinely said that to Parliament when asked why Germany were doing better. 

You don't have to imagine. We have no hope with the current regime.

It’s simple they have a brighter population . We have got what we have got and have to deal with it in our own way. Unfortunately lockdowns will not work for us

[maxjam]

9 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Maybe we could have been a bit more tough on the lockdown, don't you think?

May:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53190209

June:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-lockdown.html

Granted it didn't help but cases didn't start to spike again until after the kids went back to school and university - which is where most of the new cases are being recorded.

There was a graphic posted a few days ago, probably about 300 pages back given how fast this thread moves ?  Schools and Universities account for the best part of 3/4 of all new cases.  We can't stop all education - and keep parents at home not earning, whilst we wait for a vaccine.

[GboroRam]

3 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Granted it didn't help but cases didn't start to spike again until after the kids went back to school and university - which is where most of the new cases are being recorded.

There was a graphic posted a few days ago, probably about 300 pages back given how fast this thread moves ?  Schools and Universities account for the best part of 3/4 of all new cases.  We can't stop all education - and keep parents at home not earning, whilst we wait for a vaccine.

We weren't tough enough before opening the schools up. And we wasted precious time trying to develop a bespoke test and trace system, setting us on the back foot and leaving us in a weak position in September. If we had been more tough, and had better testing regimes, opening up with far lower prevalence of the virus would have meant much more manageable breakouts when they did occur. We could have been in a similar position to @Albert instead of jealously dismissing their success. Will it maintain? I don't know - but I'd rather be in their position right now than the one we're in.

[G STAR RAM]

18 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Maybe we could have been a bit more tough on the lockdown, don't you think?

May:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53190209

June:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-lockdown.html

I dont remember a spike in cases in May or June?

Plenty of pics of BLM marches on the internet too if you're looking for some more material.

[ariotofmyown]

1 minute ago, TexasRam said:

It’s simple they have a brighter population . We have got what we have got and have to deal with it in our own way. Unfortunately lockdowns will not work for us

I'm not sure if they are brighter, but I wouldn't be surprised if they have a better education system than ours.

They certainly have a brighter and more competent government than we do. I might look up the background to their leading politicians and see if they are journalists, pr workers etc or if they have any experience in the area they are responsible for.

[ariotofmyown]

2 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

I dont remember a spike in cases in May or June?

Plenty of pics of BLM marches on the internet too if you're looking for some more material.

I imagine @GboroRam avoided those so we didn't get all the "surely all lives matter" posts triggered from bot accounts.

[maxjam]

Just now, GboroRam said:

We weren't tough enough before opening the schools up. And we wasted precious time trying to develop a bespoke test and trace system, setting us on the back foot and leaving us in a weak position in September. If we had been more tough, and had better testing regimes, opening up with far lower prevalence of the virus would have meant much more manageable breakouts when they did occur. We could have been in a similar position to @Albert instead of jealously dismissing their success. Will it maintain? I don't know - but I'd rather be in their position right now than the one we're in.

I'm not saying we haven't made mistakes and the track and trace scheme has been woeful ? 

According to the Guardian article someone linked above (sorry forgot who!)

Strong public health guidance on avoiding the virus at any age is needed, encouraging people to get outside as much as possible, to avoid indoor, crowded and poorly ventilated spaces, and to use face coverings and distancing wherever possible. And we need strict border measures to prevent the virus from being reimported, instead of our current system that is lax and poorly monitored.

All the so called covidiots messing around outside weren't really spreading the virus that much - it was inevitable covid would flare up again as we went back to work/school.