Coronavirus

[Albert]

8 minutes ago, maxjam said:

CBA to put the effort into replying to you tbh, but here goes anyway.

During an earlier conversation with you I quoted 330m passing through uk airports every year, the link is probably 10s of pages back now.  Add to that other forms of travel into and out of the country - you're looking at the best part of 1m people passing through the UK every day, which is what I originally said, shortened to 1m as I have to keep repeating myself cos I'm lazy.

Well, the 2019 official figures for all passengers, including domestic travel, is only ~300 million, so you were mistaken with that previous post. You can find the official figures here.

8 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Of course the numbers of travel are down now, massively, which has added to our spiralling debt which is the crux of my argument - lockdowns are unsustainable long term.  We either learn to live with the virus and keep the economy moving or keep having lockdowns and watch as everything slowly falls apart.

It's not lockdowns that are killing international travel, it's the pandemic. Simply "opening up" isn't fixing that issue. 

As noted, your dichotomy that you keep pushing is false, and the countries that have reached a Covid normal, and have managed to open up, are the ones doing the polar opposite of what you're suggesting. That said, there are still sacrifices, one in Australia being the airline industry, which is bigger per capita than the UKs. That sacrifice has been worth it for the rest of the economy, however. 

8 minutes ago, maxjam said:

The UKs economy is over 80% service sector based, of which the air industry contributes significantly.  Furthermore, more Brits travel abroad than any other nation.  We simply can't afford to remain locked down without doing more damage to our economy than most other nations;

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/british-travellers-iata-world-air-transport-statistics-a9029366.html

I'm not sure how more Brits travelling overseas helps your economy, that would actually be the opposite, a flow of cash out of your economy. I would be interested to see a source on this claim that UK residents do the most international travel though in any case, as I can't find a source that suggests it to be the case. The closest I have found is this [link], but this does not list the UK as even being in the top 10. That said, this is per capita, and includes domestic travel. 

As for 'not being able to afford more lockdowns', that's the whole thing though, lockdowns aren't about what you can afford. The cost of not doing them tends to be far higher unless you have a clear strategy to manage infections without them. The UK, at this time, does not. 

8 minutes ago, maxjam said:

FWIW ignoring future posts will not be seen as running from a 'tired and defeated' argument, I'm just not interested in discussing this point any further.

Because you know you're incorrect, and have been repeatedly shown to be wrong? To be honest, I'd say this is a good move from you. 

[TuffLuff]

6 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Er, either lockdowns work (which going to the beach or protesting on the street have contributed) or they don't (so you can't be complaining about BLM). Which one is it, as it seems like you'd like to say we shouldn't be locking down at the same time as condemning the BLM protesters as being irresponsible?

Were there any reported spikes after protests and beach journeys? 

Also the trips to Bournemouth were condemned because of the wide spread of people coming from all over the country to get there. BLM protests in particular were a lot more localised and weren’t big numbers coming from different areas.

The big one was Cheltenham way back at the start of all this which caused a huge spike in the area, that’s the one that should have be condemned in my opinion 

[Uptherams]

1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said:

What was that about British people not being the brightest?

I'll be out protesting with the lefties that aren't authoritarian fascists ?

[jimmyp]

5 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

I'll be out protesting with the lefties that aren't authoritarian fascists ?

I won’t smile when you all receive your heavy financial fines and the press describe you as disgraceful, and your neighbours look at you in disgust. 

 

It will however make me feel slightly warm and fuzzy inside. ?

[GboroRam]

9 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

I'll be out protesting with the lefties that aren't authoritarian fascists ?

On your own then?

[GboroRam]

10 minutes ago, TuffLuff said:

Were there any reported spikes after protests and beach journeys? 

Also the trips to Bournemouth were condemned because of the wide spread of people coming from all over the country to get there. BLM protests in pI articular were a lot more localised and weren’t big numbers coming from different areas.

The big one was Cheltenham way back at the start of all this which caused a huge spike in the area, that’s the one that should have be condemned in my opinion 

I was responding to the suggestion that the UK locked down and couldn't have done more.

[G STAR RAM]

42 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Er, either lockdowns work (which going to the beach or protesting on the street have contributed) or they don't (so you can't be complaining about BLM). Which one is it, as it seems like you'd like to say we shouldn't be locking down at the same time as condemning the BLM protesters as being irresponsible?

Can you show me my quote where I complained about the BLM protestors and called them irresponsible please?

[Gone]

28 minutes ago, TuffLuff said:

Also the trips to Bournemouth were condemned because of the wide spread of people coming from all over the country to get there. BLM protests in particular were a lot more localised and weren’t big numbers coming from different areas.

I’m not sure that’s factual but anyway, I’m sure looking back after all the protests, beach visits, VE Day celebrations we didn’t actually see any increases in cases?
 

However we all of a sudden have ?

[Albert]

Just now, TexasRam said:

I’m not sure that’s factual but anyway, I’m sure looking back after all the protests, beach visits, VE Day celebrations we didn’t actually see any increases in cases?
 

However we all of a sudden have ?

It's an exponential system, the issue with crowds etc is that increases the potential spread, but if no cases are present, you're fine. The issue is that as new cases are generated by existing cases, the more cases you have, the more new cases you'll get as long as the reproduction number is higher than one, hence controls to keep it as low as possible. It's this nature of these systems that allow things to spiral out of control so quickly. 

[WhiteHorseRam]

4 minutes ago, Albert said:

It's an exponential system, the issue with crowds etc is that increases the potential spread, but if no cases are present, you're fine. The issue is that as new cases are generated by existing cases, the more cases you have, the more new cases you'll get as long as the reproduction number is higher than one, hence controls to keep it as low as possible. It's this nature of these systems that allow things to spiral out of control so quickly. 

Are you the Chief Scientific Officer in disguise?

 

I often stare in wonderment at your multi-quote messages.

[Gone]

4 minutes ago, Albert said:

It's an exponential system, the issue with crowds etc is that increases the potential spread, but if no cases are present, you're fine. The issue is that as new cases are generated by existing cases, the more cases you have, the more new cases you'll get as long as the reproduction number is higher than one, hence controls to keep it as low as possible. It's this nature of these systems that allow things to spiral out of control so quickly. 

So why didn’t we see cases during the summer with the beach visits/protests etc etc crowded events? Are we saying they were not carrying back then? So why is it back now? Where’s it come from. No conspiracy it just doesn’t make sense to me 

[GboroRam]

18 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Can you show me my quote where I complained about the BLM protestors and called them irresponsible please?

I was replying to the whataboutery ("whatabout BLM protests?")

[Albert]

1 minute ago, TexasRam said:

So why didn’t we see cases during the summer with the beach visits/protests etc etc crowded events? Are we saying they were not carrying back then? So why is it back now? Where’s it come from. No conspiracy it just doesn’t make sense to me 

There was less of the disease in the community, so while there was heightened risk of spread, there were less people to spread it. Remember all the log graphs I put up about a week ago, the reason for doing graphs in that nature is that an exponential curve appears straight, and the slope of that line represents the rate. What's being changed by restrictions, etc is the slope of that curve on a log plot, but on the regular numbers that all gets a bit lost. It's why you should be looking for a flatten trend on a log plot when asking the question of whether restrictions are achieving something. 

As to why it's back now, it's been building for months, just slower as there have been restrictions. This second wave will never be like the first because the reproduction number isn't as high, but it's still building. The trend has been exponential since July. Consider below, which is the plot of the average new cases per day over the past 7 days since the start of July, up to last week (as I'm using specimen date):

Then look at this as a log plot:

So, from this is clear that the virus was still building up again from July through to the end of August, then started spreading a bit faster, and hasn't really be arrested much since. The end of August does seem to be a key moment here... hmmm... what happened then. 

This, however, is why Covid normal is achievable though. If case numbers are extremely low, and this can be achieved through lockdowns, then testing and tracing becomes an effective method of control. Because there are so few cases in the community, there won't be much spread, making those efforts feasible. Right now, for the UK, that's simply not realistic. 

As to the data itself, the last week or so has looked more positive than those graphs, but we'll have to wait and see how it looks by specimen date. 

[Gone]

@Albert I’ll take my chances with Covid in the UK than this ????

 

[jimmyp]

6 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

@Albert I’ll take my chances with Covid in the UK than this ????

 

Just made me feel sick!

[Gone]

11 minutes ago, Albert said:

There was less of the disease in the community, so while there was heightened risk of spread, there were less people to spread it. Remember all the log graphs I put up about a week ago, the reason for doing graphs in that nature is that an exponential curve appears straight, and the slope of that line represents the rate. What's being changed by restrictions, etc is the slope of that curve on a log plot, but on the regular numbers that all gets a bit lost. It's why you should be looking for a flatten trend on a log plot when asking the question of whether restrictions are achieving something. 

As to why it's back now, it's been building for months, just slower as there have been restrictions. This second wave will never be like the first because the reproduction number isn't as high, but it's still building. The trend has been exponential since July. Consider below, which is the plot of the average new cases per day over the past 7 days since the start of July, up to last week (as I'm using specimen date):

Then look at this as a log plot:

So, from this is clear that the virus was still building up again from July through to the end of August, then started spreading a bit faster, and hasn't really be arrested much since. The end of August does seem to be a key moment here... hmmm... what happened then. 

This, however, is why Covid normal is achievable though. If case numbers are extremely low, and this can be achieved through lockdowns, then testing and tracing becomes an effective method of control. Because there are so few cases in the community, there won't be much spread, making those efforts feasible. Right now, for the UK, that's simply not realistic. 

As to the data itself, the last week or so has looked more positive than those graphs, but we'll have to wait and see how it looks by specimen date. 

Thanks @Albert makes a little more sense now

[maxjam]

59 minutes ago, Albert said:

Well, the 2019 official figures for all passengers, including domestic travel, is only ~300 million, so you were mistaken with that previous post. You can find the official figures here.

CBA to decipher that, neither can I be bothered to find my 330m link.  If you add in other forms of travel the number only goes up.  In any case I originally said 'the best part of 1m' of which it is.

 

1 hour ago, Albert said:

 

Because you know you're incorrect, and have been repeatedly shown to be wrong? To be honest, I'd say this is a good move from you. 

Ignoring the rest because I find your argument to be based on winning an attritional battle - I pointed out in a previous post how we were entrenched with our arguments and it was pointlessly going backwards and forwards.

You seem to be desperate for the last word and 'win' however, whereas my argument has always been long term, the outcome of which will be unknown for years.  Continuing this discussion is fruitless, I have tried to be nice and back away but am now asking you to stop replying to me. 

Further comments aimed at goading me into a reply will ignored and tbh I was under the impression that moderators of the old politics thread suspended several posters accusing them of using such tactics.

[alexxxxx]

36 minutes ago, Albert said:

There was less of the disease in the community, so while there was heightened risk of spread, there were less people to spread it. Remember all the log graphs I put up about a week ago, the reason for doing graphs in that nature is that an exponential curve appears straight, and the slope of that line represents the rate. What's being changed by restrictions, etc is the slope of that curve on a log plot, but on the regular numbers that all gets a bit lost. It's why you should be looking for a flatten trend on a log plot when asking the question of whether restrictions are achieving something. 

As to why it's back now, it's been building for months, just slower as there have been restrictions. This second wave will never be like the first because the reproduction number isn't as high, but it's still building. The trend has been exponential since July. Consider below, which is the plot of the average new cases per day over the past 7 days since the start of July, up to last week (as I'm using specimen date):

Then look at this as a log plot:

So, from this is clear that the virus was still building up again from July through to the end of August, then started spreading a bit faster, and hasn't really be arrested much since. The end of August does seem to be a key moment here... hmmm... what happened then. 

This, however, is why Covid normal is achievable though. If case numbers are extremely low, and this can be achieved through lockdowns, then testing and tracing becomes an effective method of control. Because there are so few cases in the community, there won't be much spread, making those efforts feasible. Right now, for the UK, that's simply not realistic. 

As to the data itself, the last week or so has looked more positive than those graphs, but we'll have to wait and see how it looks by specimen date. 

Trouble is that although I agree with you that it is achievable to go back to some sort of normality with test and trace, this was what was promised back in July when everything was opening up and cases were low but itnever happened. The government cannot be trusted to deliver any sort of novel project quickly. 

Because of this failure, there will not be enough buy-in from MPs, Local Leaders or the public for it to work.

Many people were supportive of strict measures in March which ran through til July because financial support was available, mask policy, testing system (but not tracing) appeared to work. A lot do not support further measures and it's not because they're selfish but because they're fatigued and want to get on with their lives. 

People made huge sacrifices, thousands were put out of work. 

The anti-lockdown sentiment you see here is because it will take another 3 months of poor quality living, in the winter, through the festive period, with an uncertain outcome, guided by a government who cannot keep a grip on it. The death and illness just gets rationalised (as I think we see in this thread!) 

I imagine in Australia it's easier to say 'why don't you just do xyz properly' when you've had a more positive outcome and better handling of the outbreak. You might say we get a better economic outcome in the end by locking people down but trust in long-term planning and further financial support does not seem forthcoming. 

People are completely fed up.

 

[WhiteHorseRam]

54 minutes ago, Albert said:

There was less of the disease in the community, so while there was heightened risk of spread, there were less people to spread it. Remember all the log graphs I put up about a week ago, the reason for doing graphs in that nature is that an exponential curve appears straight, and the slope of that line represents the rate. What's being changed by restrictions, etc is the slope of that curve on a log plot, but on the regular numbers that all gets a bit lost. It's why you should be looking for a flatten trend on a log plot when asking the question of whether restrictions are achieving something. 

As to why it's back now, it's been building for months, just slower as there have been restrictions. This second wave will never be like the first because the reproduction number isn't as high, but it's still building. The trend has been exponential since July. Consider below, which is the plot of the average new cases per day over the past 7 days since the start of July, up to last week (as I'm using specimen date):

Then look at this as a log plot:

So, from this is clear that the virus was still building up again from July through to the end of August, then started spreading a bit faster, and hasn't really be arrested much since. The end of August does seem to be a key moment here... hmmm... what happened then. 

This, however, is why Covid normal is achievable though. If case numbers are extremely low, and this can be achieved through lockdowns, then testing and tracing becomes an effective method of control. Because there are so few cases in the community, there won't be much spread, making those efforts feasible. Right now, for the UK, that's simply not realistic. 

As to the data itself, the last week or so has looked more positive than those graphs, but we'll have to wait and see how it looks by specimen date. 

Just showing off now

[GboroRam]

40 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Further comments aimed at goading me into a reply will ignored and tbh I was under the impression that moderators of the old politics thread suspended several posters accusing them of using such tactics.

Happy to ban the pair of you if you want, as I don't know who's worse?