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Smyth_18

'It's a long season'

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The above cliche has never been more apt.

After 2 weeks of trying to ignore Derby County i am now back in the game.

I've just looked at the next 6 games with a good sense of realism. I believe (slightly pessimistically) the following may happen;

Cardiff - D
Leeds - L
Birmingham - D
Barnsley - W
Luton - W
Charlton - D

Now.. This looks pretty bad. But it will take our points tally to 15 points from 12.

At the same point last season we had 18 points. So being pretty pessimistic we'd be 1 win behind that. Cardiff & Birmingham are both definitely winnable & Leeds/ Charlton are far from unbeatable. 

Our fortunes could look very different in a heartbeat. Writing the season off now or after the next 3 games would be absurd.


 

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11 minutes ago, Smyth_18 said:

I've just looked at the next 6 games with a good sense of realism. I believe (slightly pessimistically) the following may happen;

Cardiff 
Leeds
Birmingham
Barnsley
Luton
Charlton

Now.. This looks pretty bad. But it will take our points tally to 15 points from 12.

Look at this as a whole and 2 wins, 3 draws and a loss wouldn't be the end of the world

Assume we lose away at Leeds - Any of the other games are winnable, but the Championship as always is a bit bonkers so I can see us drawing a couple of games we should win (like Swansea and West Brom) 

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top words my man. top top words.

remember fellas and fellettes, win or lose, we're on the booze, bore draw?, lets drink some more.

the 18 game mark is where I start to worry (if we're playing poop) as I feel around that point is a fair indication of how teams are going to do.

Now i'll be the 3rd one on here disappointed if we get slapped against Cardiff, but I won't write off our season. Even if we give um a good good go and lose, I'll be happy.

Leeds Cardiff and Charlton are some difficult games and we've already had a shed load of difficult games against top teams.

I won't be there for the leeds game because I value my shoelaces, but I'll be at the pub cheering the boys on.

 

Come on you ramssssssss

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I think it might be important for us not to judge this season by the usual universally accepted barometers - match-by-match results and league position. Instead perhaps we'll have to judge whether it's a good or a bad season on how we emerge at the end of it in terms of squad development.

Of course that is a really hard thing for us fans to do. We live for the highs given by goals being scored, victories being achieved and league table targets being met - I know I'll be cursing at times over the next six months! But I must sit on my hands for a while, hope that the transition we all know needs to happen gets to evolve and, come spring, we start to see a beautiful butterfly emerging from the Cocu chrysalis

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To say we’re never going to make anything happen this season purely based on our first few results would indeed be ridiculous. Form can change in an instant, and there’s still more than plenty of time to get ourselves back up the table with a few decent results. Plenty of teams have started poorly and got promoted by going on a long run of consistently good form. It’s definitely possible as long as poor form doesn’t drag on too long and it becomes too late, it just takes something to turn the form around and some consistency within the team after that. Who’s to say something like that can’t start on Friday night after two weeks working on our weaknesses in training?

The thing I worry about though is not that we can’t make anything happen this season because of our poor start, but that we can’t make anything happen because of our poor squad. I know I’ve said it 1000 times but cocu really has been ducked by the recruitment team who made a total arse of the summer window and have left us with a squad severely lacking top championship quality. On paper, it’s not a squad that can get promoted. We just have to hope imo that cocu can get something special out of them through his coaching ability, but he’s got a tough job on with our worst squad since the clough days imo.

Anyway, back to the point of the thread. I reckon if we take instead a rather more optimistic view (not like me I know), we have it within our capabilities in top form to get a set of results like:

Cardiff W

Leeds L

Birmingham W

Barnsley W

Luton W

Charlton D

Only game I really feel we haven’t got enough quality to make a fist at is that leeds game. All others are definitely doable. That would leave us with 19 points after 12 games, which is probably only one win off where we need to, and definitely catchupable. So there’s still very much hope for us yet, but cocu needs to somehow get that maximum performance out of some fairly average players to achieve that hope.

Edited by Millenniumram

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I'm just going to compare this season to 95/96, for now.

After 6 games:

1995 - W1, D2, L3, Scored 5, Conceded 9, 5 points GD - 4

2019 - W1, D3, L2, Scored 6, Conceded 9, 6 points, GD -3

 

After 12 games:

1995 - W3, D5, L4, Scored 13, Conceded 16, 14 points, GD -3

If we go by what has been suggested above, we'll have 15 points this season and probably a slightly better goal difference (unless we get spanked by Leeds)

I'm not worrying.

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I look back at Fulham a couple of seasons ago. They were 15th at the start of December and went on that storming 5 month unbeaten run. I see no reason why we can't be higher than 15th in the table by December. When was the last time Derby had a fantastic start to the season, under NC when we won a few games in a row?

Not counting the Forest game since Cocu didn't take it seriously, Brentford are the only team to properly boss us around this season for the whole game. Swansea we could have won, West Brom we should have beat them, Bristol City we gifted them a head start.

Another fan at work said this reminded him of Pearson's start to the season. I disagree. Every game we played with him in charge, we looked terrible in every minute of every game, it was embarrassing to watch. We are nothing as bad as that start. I've seen much worse than this.

Chin up folks!

Edited by SouthStandDan

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1 hour ago, Smyth_18 said:

The above cliche has never been more apt.

After 2 weeks of trying to ignore Derby County i am now back in the game.

I've just looked at the next 6 games with a good sense of realism. I believe the following WILL happen;

Cardiff - W
Leeds - W
Birmingham - W
Barnsley - W
Luton - W
Charlton - W

Fixed it for you.

Come on lets get a sense of pride and support back (at least in the few days prior to getting battered by Cardiff)

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16 minutes ago, SK47 said:

I actually think we are in for a pasting on Friday 😬

really? they've been awful so far, against, on paper, an easy set of teams.

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1 hour ago, erathirea said:

I'm just going to compare this season to 95/96, for now.

After 6 games:

1995 - W1, D2, L3, Scored 5, Conceded 9, 5 points GD - 4

2019 - W1, D3, L2, Scored 6, Conceded 9, 6 points, GD -3

 

After 12 games:

1995 - W3, D5, L4, Scored 13, Conceded 16, 14 points, GD -3

If we go by what has been suggested above, we'll have 15 points this season and probably a slightly better goal difference (unless we get spanked by Leeds)

I'm not worrying.

I admire your optimism but I think any comparison with 95/96 has a slight flaw in that the impact of Igor Stimac transformed that season from early November. We simply won't be able to make a similar signing at that point so if we are to progress from our first 6 league games this season it won't be a transformation as it was in 95/96.

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7 minutes ago, metalsheep02 said:

I admire your optimism but I think any comparison with 95/96 has a slight flaw in that the impact of Igor Stimac transformed that season from early November. We simply won't be able to make a similar signing at that point so if we are to progress from our first 6 league games this season it won't be a transformation as it was in 95/96.

I see no reason why Bielik can't grow to have a similar impact.

I also see little point in comparing to previous seasons. Especially that far back as there is no same player at the club to draw influence from it (Even Keogh wasn't here). There'd be just as much use comparing our start with Bradford's last 6 games in the 2001/02 season. (Don't ask what the results were!)

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3 hours ago, StarterForTen said:

I think it might be important for us not to judge this season by the usual universally accepted barometers - match-by-match results and league position. Instead perhaps we'll have to judge whether it's a good or a bad season on how we emerge at the end of it in terms of squad development.

Of course that is a really hard thing for us fans to do. We live for the highs given by goals being scored, victories being achieved and league table targets being met - I know I'll be cursing at times over the next six months! But I must sit on my hands for a while, hope that the transition we all know needs to happen gets to evolve and, come spring, we start to see a beautiful butterfly emerging from the Cocu chrysalis

I heartily endorse the butterfly metaphor! 

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1 hour ago, Squid said:

win or lose, we're on the juice

What if I’m a cyborg that requires no hydration or resources to survive? 

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5 hours ago, Squid said:

top words my man. top top words.

remember fellas and fellettes, win or lose, we're on the booze, bore draw?, lets drink some more.

the 18 game mark is where I start to worry (if we're playing poop) as I feel around that point is a fair indication of how teams are going to do.

Now i'll be the 3rd one on here disappointed if we get slapped against Cardiff, but I won't write off our season. Even if we give um a good good go and lose, I'll be happy.

Leeds Cardiff and Charlton are some difficult games and we've already had a shed load of difficult games against top teams.

I won't be there for the leeds game because I value my shoelaces, but I'll be at the pub cheering the boys on.

 

Come on you ramssssssss

You could wear slip-ons😉

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