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12 remaining games - how many points?


MackworthRamIsGod

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Remaining games as follows:

Fulham - Home

QPR - Away

Forest - Away

Cardiff - Home

Sunderland - Home

Preston - Away

Bolton - Home

Wolves - Away

Burton - Away

Boro - Home

Villa - Away

Barnsley - Home

I can see us getting, 3 points against QPR, Cardiff, Sunderland, Bolton, Burton and Barnsley, plus a point against Forest, Preston and Boro.

21 points in total to finish on 81 and comfortably in the playoffs.

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Reasons to be cheerful.  All teams have blip.  If we had ours in December and dropped to say 10th and then hit form to come roaring back to be 4th and 7 points off automatic we’d be a pretty happy and confident bunch right now. 

Steve Mac also used to say that under Ferguson they would work towards the last 10 games, and come with a run at that time of the season.  Who’s to say we can’t do that this season?  As a side note, these Prozac tablets the doc prescribed me are great.

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Fulham - Home: Optimistic = draw. Pessimistic = lose.

QPR - Away: Optimistic = win. Pessimistic = draw.

Forest - Away: Optimistic = win. Pessimistic = draw.

Cardiff - Home: Optimistic = draw. Pessimistic = lose.

Sunderland - Home: Optimistic = win. Pessimistic = draw.

Preston - Away: Optimistic = draw. Pessimistic = draw.

Bolton - Home: Optimistic = win. Pessimistic = draw.

Wolves - Away: Optimistic = lose. Pessimistic = lose badly!

Burton - Away: Optimistic = win. Pessimistic = win.

Boro - Home: Optimistic = draw. Pessimistic = draw.

Villa - Away: Optimistic = draw. Pessimistic = lose.

Barnsley - Home: Optimistic = win. Pessimistic = win.

Optimistic = 23pts

Pessimistic = 12pts

I'd take anything half way between those two scores at the moment!!

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Fulham - Home: Optimistic = draw.  1 pt

QPR - Away: Optimistic = win 3 pt

Forest - Away: Pessimistic = draw. 1 pt

Cardiff - Home: Optimistic = draw.  1 pt

Sunderland - Home: Optimistic = win.  3 pt

Preston - Away: lose 0 pt

Bolton - Home: Optimistic = win.  3 pt

Wolves - Away:  lose. 0 pt

Burton - Away: Optimistic = win.  3 Pt

Boro - Home:  Pessimistic = draw. 1 pt

Villa - Away: lose. 0 pt

Barnsley - Home: Optimistic = win 3 p

That is 5 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses.

Total (hopefully) 19 Pts

Takes us to total of 79 Pts.

 

Middlesboro are 7th currently on 52 pts, they would need 80 pts to overhaul us (taking into account current goal difference).

That is 9 wins and 1 draw in the last 12 games. (meaning they could only afford to lose 2 games). a tall order. They have only won 15 all season so far.

We should therefore keep our fingers and everything else crossed get 6th place (the last playoff place as a minimum.

The playoff's as we know (all to well) are lottery and are anyone's to win regardless of final league positions. 

 

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Im slightly pessimistic, and dont see us bouncing back to the form that took us to 2nd,that said i can see us getting about 18pts (if it were Steve Mc in charge at this point of the season i would have said 6 )so play off's it is, lets just hope we back in decent form by then...  because we will be facing Villa,Cardiff or worse.... Fulham (Who i hope will make 2nd behind Wolves and then i win loadsa money from a pre season bet :) )

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Fulham (h) 3pts, QPR (a) 3pts, Forest (a) 3pts, Cardiff (h) 3pts, Sunderland (h) 3pts, Preston (a) 1pt, Bolton (h) 3pts, Wolves (a) Nil pts, Burton (a) 3pts, M'boro (h) 1pt, Villa (a) 1pt and Barnsley (h) 3pts Total of 27 points giving us 87 points and a healthy goal difference.

In Gary, Luck, No injuries and no bad ref decisions I believe  COYR:)

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The Fulham match may have an absurd weight in terms of how we tackle the rest of the season.

If we are genuinely competitive regardless of result, I can see us taking it up to Wolves, Villa and Cardiff. If we’re outclassed, I can’t see us salvaging much from those three and probably be lucky to get more than two points from the matches against Preston, Boro and Forest.

That said, I am expecting us to rise to the occasion against Fulham (quite excited by it TBH). I can also see us being advantaged at Wolves by their promotion by then. Wouldn’t be surprised if we sneak 3 or 1 there.

Conversely, Burton, Blunderland and Bolton will be fighting for survival while Cardiff, Preston, Boro and Villa are 6-point games.

On 27/02/2018 at 20:41, MackworthRamIsGod said:

Remaining games as follows:

Fulham - Home D                

QPR - Away W                      

Forest - Away W

Cardiff - Home D

Sunderland - Home W

Preston - Away D

Bolton - Home W

Wolves - Away D       

Burton - Away W

Boro - Home W

Villa - Away D

Barnsley - Home W

 

I’m looking at an optimistic 26 points above. You’d think 86 should secure second spot.

More realistically optimistic would be 20-23.

I can’t see us garnering fewer than 16 points in the remaining games unless the side absolutely collapses...in which case, we won’t deserve promotion and we’ll still have the positives from the first season of the Rowett Era to focus on....

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hi all

The predicted points on here from these 12 games so far range between 18 and 26, when our current form is below either of these.  However, if (but only if) we saw a return to the form of the recent unbeaten run then 20-25 points is possible.  7 points below Cardiff is now a real stretch, and at only 5 points the gap between us and 7th should be of far more concern right now.  Seems to me that we now have to work hard just for a playoff place and anything else would be a bonus.  If we had managed a couple more wins recently rather than draws we could now start playing for a point sometimes (and rotate the squad) in order to just stay in the playoffs and keep everyone fresh for the playoff matches, but as it is we still need to go for a win in every game, which as we know has it's drawbacks.  So, for what it's worth here's my sage-like verdict, fresh from the crystal ball LOL:

Fulham - Home D...would love for us to turn them over but I see another hard fought 1-1 or 2-2 looming               

QPR - Away D...we almost nick this 1-0 but the Hoops score in the last minute                      

Forest - Away W...we thump them 3-0 and tails are up again

Cardiff - Home D...similar to Fulham, we come from behind once or twice but scrap for a point

Sunderland - Home W...they will be as good as down by then & Coleman's thoughts will be on League 1 and rebuilding, there for the taking, 4-0 to the mighty Rams

Preston - Away D...they will still be in the playoff mix (in their own minds at least), yet another dogged display and again we will come from behind, this has 1-1 or 2-2 written all over it

Bolton - Home W...we just have too much class and experience to not get 3 points from this one, could be 5-0

Wolves - Away...sorry guys I don't give much for our chances against them as they are right now, nil points (French Eurovision accent for that BTW).  However, IF they have won the league by then and started resting people for next season, then who knows?  I'm not making that assumption though.     

Burton - Away W...but a slog, 1-0 to us, Vydra in the 80th minute

Boro - Home D...see Fulham, Cardiff, Preston, same kind of game & result

Villa - Away...sorry but I can't see us even getting a point there, nil points (again the French accent please)

Barnsley - Home W...they will either be down or safe by then but we might need 3 points to be sure of a playoff place, we will annihilate them and (temporarily at least) lift our traditional end of season curse!

Summary - we will slog and slug our way to keeping hold of a playoff place, but apart from Sunderland/Bolton/Barnsley it will be pretty ugly and hard fought.

All the above gives us 20 more points from 36 (slightly above our current form) and 80 in total.  Unless Cardiff/Villa go into freefall that's not enough for 2nd, maybe not enough for 3rd either, but 4th/5th/6th are definitely possible.  However, I'm not afraid of any of the other possible playoff contenders, especially over 2 legs.  We will get to Wem-ber-leeeeeee I think, but what happens on that day in May isn't yet clear, as my crystal ball only goes up to the end of April LOL.......

LR2

PS I used to sell crystal balls for a living, but I couldn't see any future in it...

 

 

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