Sparkle Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 If we keep clean sheets in at least 10-12 games we would have a hell of a chance especially against villa Cardiff and Fulham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkle Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Here’s one to consider in the weirdness of football - we are yet to the double over any team - a bit strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toddy Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 We just have to keep going and take one game at a time. What we can't do is start drawing more games as it is very difficult to recover the 2pts, especially as Villa have now started to come good under Fatman. We can do it.....COYR!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needles Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Interesting enough, but what we really need is the same amount of points as Villa, two less than Cardiff, 5 less than Fulham and Bristol City and 8 less bar. Or to finish 3rd-6th and win the play-offs. It can so quickly change that I never see the point looking much before Easter. It's all about Norwich next week for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dimmu Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The biggest fear is that we can reach 90 points and still miss out automatic promotion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkle Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Dimmu said: The biggest fear is that we can reach 90 points and still miss out automatic promotion... I don’t fear getting 90 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, needles said: Interesting enough, but what we really need is the same amount of points as Villa, two less than Cardiff, 5 less than Fulham and Bristol City and 8 less bar. Or to finish 3rd-6th and win the play-offs. It can so quickly change that I never see the point looking much before Easter. It's all about Norwich next week for me. How true. Look at Villa, next game is local derby against Blues, then Fulham away, neither easy. Our next 2 Norwich home and Owls away, not easy but winnable. Table could look a lot different in a fortnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadioactiveWaste Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 We just need to match or better what Villa, Cardiff, Fulham et al do over the remaining matches. Points targets are only ever a guide, positions, promotions, relegations are decided by how you do relative to your opponents. Its interesting to know the averages and so on and it still looks to be tough but do-able but in the end we'll have to do what we can and hope it's better than the rest do. Wolves are unlikely to implode to the extent that they'll get dragged back, so it's really the race to 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuespachRam Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 All these stats...11 wins needs from 16 games etc etc and can we keep it up..? it sounds difficult getting 11 wins, but if this really is the magic number Then Villa have got to get 12 out of 16 and fulham have got to get 14 out of 16 wins.... there are two targets to aim for, firstly finishing in the top 6 and secondly finishing as close to Wolves as possible a good win on Saturday to put pressure on Villa who have their game against Birmingham that weekend will be a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
europia Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 9 hours ago, Bris Vegas said: If we can find a habbit of turning some of those draws where we can't break down the opposition into wins then we'll probably have enough for promotion. We had more than enough about us to beat both Bristol City and Millwall. Draws such as Sheff Utd and Hull aren't as bad as we didn't play particularly well in either game. It's those games where you feel the win is there for the taking and you only manage a draw which is the most disappointing. Teams aren't going to let us stroll to second place. Whether it's Villa, Cardiff, Fulham or even all three. At least one will push hard and make it that only a return of 88+ points will be enough for 2nd place. Spot on. Those games you mention, Bristol and Millwall coinciding with Villa's good run. Winning one of those draws would have helped us a lot. I hope that we don't have to suffer losing out to Steve Bruce again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harrowram Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 hours ago, ck- said: I agree with the majority of your post, but the maths here seems awry. We're currently on 57 from 30 which equates to 1.9 points per game and extrapolates to 87.4 for the season. That's just above the average for the last 5 years, which from the first posting is 84.4. Taking out the statistical outlier, the average over the last 4 years is 86.25. Either way, we're correctly placed in second. The hope for me is that although Villa have had a purple patch, it will balance out with a run of draws soon. Villa don't have a bad run in. They have a challenging list of home fixtures in April including us. It will be tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramchester Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Whilst I think we have a tough run of fixtures, some of the teams that are coming to Pride Park like Fulham, Boro, Cardiff are in the position where they need to come and get something to either get in the playoffs/consolidate the play offs/push for second - that may help Derby as we are far better when teams come to us looking to press matters. Throw in to the mix Sunderland, Bolton, Forest (away i know) ;-) are in a relegation battle, they will need to pick up points. Our away form is good enough to pick up other points needed to finish second, sure we will drop points, but we don't concede many goals so we are always in games. Whatever happens between now and Barnsley, this squad has exceeded expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 With all the well thought out logic of what we need listed in this thread- I take the view that everyone else needs more "Simples". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Positive for me is we are not even above out best ever points tally for the past 5 season after 30 games yet we are 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rab a dab doo Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I think there are still many twist and turns in the race for second place. It will eventually come down to the head to head matches between all the main contenders (Derby, Villa, Cardiff and Fulham) . These are the real 6 pointers. We have make sure at best we do not lose these encounters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plymouthram Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 hours ago, Ellafella said: Excellent post @Carl Sagan. I enjoyed the none:none {bit of BC parlance there} with Bristol City more than the 3:0 of yesterday. I am a bit of a purist I know; yet yesterday we well and truely bloodied Brentford's nose. They were waspish and irritating in the sense that they kept flying around the jam jar, and sometimes settled briefly on the lid, but they never really got any jam. When they did get inside the rim of the jar Carson just swatted them away with absolute aplomb. The thing is ordinarily I would say "ohhh I'm not sure we'll do that...11 wins from 16..." But you know what? I actually think we will. GR just has to stand on the bridge and I can't see his impressive ship faltering. It's not a pretty ship, but it's set fair and seems very assured even in choppy waters. I'm confused, are we solid jam jar or an unsinkable ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plymouthram Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 hours ago, ColonelBlimp said: We just need 1 point more than the highest 3rd place, so that would be 90 points I reckon. Brings the target back down to 33 32 points if we keep a better goal difference than the other team. Wow its getting better all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plymouthram Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Harrowram said: Villa don't have a bad run in. They have a challenging list of home fixtures in April including us. It will be tight. Villa to be fair have won 6 league games on the trot to get within a point of us. Their next 3 fixtures are tricky Birmingham at home, a local derby with the brummies only losing once in their last matches. Fulham away who have just won their last 5 games. Then Preston at home, who have only lost 6 games all season. On top of this later on in the season they have tricky away games against Bolton, Norwich, Ipswich and Millwall. With home games against Wolves and Derby who have both only lost twice on the road. And finally they have to improve their goal difference over us, because that at the moment is worth another point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 I just discovered Nate Silver's famous FiveThirtyEight statistics website is modelling the Championship at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ You can go back week by week and see how their predictions change. And they talk a little about their methodology. The points totals for the end of season are lower than I (and others on here) would have expected with the Rams finishing on 85 points but securely in second place ahead of Cardiff on 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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