Jack Willow Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said: I just discovered Nate Silver's famous FiveThirtyEight statistics website is modelling the Championship at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ You can go back week by week and see how their predictions change. And they talk a little about their methodology. The points totals for the end of season are lower than I (and others on here) would have expected with the Rams finishing on 85 points butsecurely in second place ahead of Cardiff on 82. A very interesting website with a lot of data which I will certainly use myself when I am placing my bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BathRam72 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 04/02/2018 at 09:14, Paul71 said: Its difficult when comparing season on season, last season there was less points at the bottom as Rotherham were well adrift. All I know is we need 1 less than villa between now and then end of the season, thats all that matters. You could read that as if we get one less than Villa then we end up on the same points????? Which will then go down to goal difference. I wouldn't fancy that. On 04/02/2018 at 09:41, PistoldPete2 said: Team finishing 2nd have twice got 93 points in last few years and that might be what we need. 36 points from 16 games is a tall order and we have some tough games in that ... wolves and villa away, Cardiff fulham and so on. People dread the play offs but I think atm we are just as likely to go up via the play offs as via automatic. I am pretty sure these teams are also looking at the prospect of playing us and saying the same. Keep up the faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kennington Ram Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, BathRam72 said: You could read that as if we get one less than Villa then we end up on the same points????? Which will then go down to goal difference. I wouldn't fancy that. I am pretty sure these teams are also looking at the prospect of playing us and saying the same. Keep up the faith Indeed - although we started slowly pre-Ledley so failed in some games vs Sheff U, Wolves and Bristol, we've utterly pummeled several of our rivals in big games since. This includes Boro and Leeds, where we seem to have started their dumping out of the play-off contention both times, and Villa, where we out-muscled them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 10:11, Sparkle said: Here’s one to consider in the weirdness of football - we are yet to the double over any team - a bit strange That's largely down to our poor start. We have an opportunity on Sat v Norwich, let's hope we take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
admira Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The form tables in the link below are interesting, especially the 'relative form table' at the end. In the last 6 games, Villa have bagged 18 points compared to our 12. Clearly if that continued, we would be left well off the pace. On relative form (last 8 games), Villa are currently acheiving 2.38 points per game (PPG) compared to 1.87 for the season overall. Rams have a recent form of 2.00 PPG with a season record of 1.90 PPG. Fulham have the best recent form with 2.75 PPG but only 1.70 PPG for the season. The green and red bars display who is doing better or worse recently compared to their season PPG. http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2 PS - Forest have a magnificent 0.63 PPG recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, admira said: The form tables in the link below are interesting, especially the 'relative form table' at the end. In the last 6 games, Villa have bagged 18 points compared to our 12. Clearly if that continued, we would be left well off the pace. On relative form (last 8 games), Villa are currently acheiving 2.38 points per game (PPG) compared to 1.87 for the season overall. Rams have a recent form of 2.00 PPG with a season record of 1.90 PPG. Fulham have the best recent form with 2.75 PPG but only 1.70 PPG for the season. The green and red bars display who is doing better or worse recently compared to their season PPG. http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2 PS - Forest have a magnificent 0.63 PPG recently. Hull with 1 point every 2 games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete2 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, SaintRam said: That's largely down to our poor start. We have an opportunity on Sat v Norwich, let's hope we take it. We only played the duffers like forest once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
admira Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Rams have 8 home and 8 away games remaining. Of the home games, 4 are against top half and 4 are against bottom half. Of the away games, 3 are against top half and 5 are against bottom half. Villa also have 8 home and 8 away Of the home games, 5 are against top half and 3 are against bottom half. Of the away games, 2 are against top half and 6 are against bottom half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroyDyer Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 If we can pick up wins against Norwich and Leeds, and at least a point at Sheffield Wednesday, we're looking in good shape. Can't help but think promotion will be decided on April 28th, mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SKRam Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, SaintRam said: That's largely down to our poor start. We have an opportunity on Sat v Norwich, let's hope we take it. ‘Scoring against your previous club syndrome’ please Cameron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leon the ram 2009 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, TroyDyer said: If we can pick up wins against Norwich and Leeds, and at least a point at Sheffield Wednesday, we're looking in good shape. Can't help but think promotion will be decided on April 28th, mind. What I seen of Wednesday at the weekend I’d be very disappointed if we didn’t beat them very convincingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rab a dab doo Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The Villa away game may well be the key to our season. Avoid defeat in that one and we may well and truly have one foot in the Premiership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
admira Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Longest unbeaten runs in top four divisions Team / League / Games unbeaten Derby Championship 11 Wigan League One 11 Rotherham League One 10 Mansfield League Two 9 Fulham Championship 8 Tottenham Premier League 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rab a dab doo said: The Villa away game may well be the key to our season. Avoid defeat in that one and we may well and truly have one foot in the Premiership. Most promoted teams have at least a foot in the premiership after the penultimate game of the season though, tbf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkle Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Let’s play the next ten games and see where we are for the the last six fixtures to see if those games are six pointers or not all that said all the other clubs supporters expect us to do the usual Derby thing and spiral out of control so I hope to disappoint them this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanish Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 14:39, Ramchester said: Whilst I think we have a tough run of fixtures, some of the teams that are coming to Pride Park like Fulham, Boro, Cardiff are in the position where they need to come and get something to either get in the playoffs/consolidate the play offs/push for second - that may help Derby as we are far better when teams come to us looking to press matters. Throw in to the mix Sunderland, Bolton, Forest (away i know) ;-) are in a relegation battle, they will need to pick up points. Our away form is good enough to pick up other points needed to finish second, sure we will drop points, but we don't concede many goals so we are always in games. Whatever happens between now and Barnsley, this squad has exceeded expectations. don't think florist have much to play for but pride, and they gave that up years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaside Sam Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Spanish said: don't think florist have much to play for but pride, and they gave that up years ago you never know it would be nice to think we had a hand in them being relegated,just think us promoted to the prem and forest relegated to the third tier,if carlsberg did dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 If Derby do achieve 32 points over the next 16 games, a difficult task, Wolves only need 22 points over the same period to stay ahead. Which is a remarkable position, when you really think about it. I'm not saying this because I think they could be caught, the reality of the numbers just impressed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Willow Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: The points totals for the end of season are lower than I (and others on here) would have expected with the Rams finishing on 85 points butsecurely in second place ahead of Cardiff on 82. A small digression, I have actually predicted approximately 86 points at the end of the campaign in this tread. So I am more or less in the line with the analysts (85 points) from the fivethirtyeight.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombo Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I keep having this debate with the guys I go to the games with. About points totals and the task ahead. One person keeps saying that no matter how hard it seems for us, it's at least 1 point harder for Villa at this point. And even harder for the teams below. In fact, as the team in 2nd place currently, nobody has a better shot at finishing 2nd than us. Its a simple message, but I get what he means. At the very basic level, we're in the driving seat from here. Doesn't matter how difficult the task ahead seems, it's harder for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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