Ken Tram

Extrapolating the 10 points now on the board from the minus 21 points we effectively started with, it resembles a big fat F U to The EFL...

 
 
... unless my calculations are amiss?   ?

Good work @Yani P. It would be useful if you could label your tables a bit more to help us to interpret them a little more easily. The key table is the one which shows the required average points per game (APPG) to hit "safety" - what we can see is that "required" APPG is rising with each passing game; it gives us a "numerical" understanding of what we intuitively know ie that we need to start winning games. We could construct a chart with a "ceiling" on which would show the point at which we are unlikely (based on our last few seasons) to meet the required APPG; but maybe that would be too depressing!
I like to keep my eye on ben Mayhew's excellent Experimental 3-6-1 website. Although his visualizations are mostly descriptive (rather than predictive) his scatter plots are interesting because:
1. They enable comparisons between teams that are not necessarily just a reflection of the league table. They do this by "drilling down" to show attacking and defensive "norms" ie how each team play "on average" defensively and offensively. As games aggregate, the notion is that teams's "normative" performances are established; ie extraneous "noise" produced by form, poor refereeing decisions, sheer luck and other extraneous factors are reduced. 
2. They tend to describe and confirm (rather than point to the future) how teams are doing and therefore where teams need to improve. 
3. The other downside though is that Ben's stuff tends to be a few weeks behind...he's a very busy chap so I'm not being critical. The latest scatterplots are only inclusive of games up to 3rd Oct, so the folowing ones excluded our games at Preston, home to Luton, Away at Coventry and of course yesterday's home V BRFC. 
4. Nevertheless, they're worth a look:
 
Figure 1 shows defensive effectiveness: Shots faced per match (X axis) compared with shots faced per goal conceded (Y-axis). The vertical and horizontal line intersection is "average" for the Championship which effectively creates "quadrants" which Ben labels according to the relative ratios of shots faced per match : shots faced per goal conceded. What we can see is that Derby are a total outlier - We are "competent but busy". On average we face the second highest number of shots on average (almost 15) (Only Rreading face more on average) but actually it takes an average of 20 shots by the opposition to score a goal against us. In one sense this is very good - we are probably blocking lots of shots rather than anything else; but in another sense, it's worrying. Teams are getting lots of opportunity to shoot - we are not defensively tight because we are denying them shots. So the question becomes...can we sustain that? Given that we've conceded 2 at home versus Luton and 2 V BRFC, it may be that we are already showing  some "regression to the average" which may mean our period of extreme frugality may be over. Let's face it, BRFC could've/should've been 4-0 at HT yesterday!
If that's the case, it's worrying because, as we know, we are paper thin up front, and Figure 2 illustrates just how much: We are in the "ineffectual" quadrant, alongside Barnsley - our next opponent. We need 15 shots for every goal scored - just like Barnsley; and we only create an average of 9.7 shots per game. If we look at other teams we are playing soon - Millwall, Fulham and QPR, they are all "above average" Championship shooters. Bournemouth are below average in terms of number of shots; but I suspect their chances though fewer relatively may be more convertible ie better quality. Perhaps, the return of CKR may make us more effective in front of goal - he's hit the post twice in the last 2 games and blazed over at the death when he got through yesterday but Ben Mayhew's scatters tell us what we intuitively know - Wayne has to find a way of making us score more, and we have to get back to keeping clean sheets, before that "mini-trend" of conceding 2 at home becomes the norm. 
 
 
 

NOW!
Play them now!
Play everyone... NOW!  

I suspect thier main check is a country check against your IP adress, different area's have different rules for screening. They are probably just warning you that you can get the suncription but if they detect your are not in an area that can show the game you won't get it. You can get monthly subscription which is cheaper or game by game, if you were on your hols you would be getting game by game rather than subscription.

Every single 1 of those fixtures is winnable

On current form, we can expect 6 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses.
If we convert 3 out of 3 (9 out of 9) draws into wins, that would be 15 wins and 7 losses.
If we convert 2 of the 7 losses into draws, that leaves 15 wins 2 draws and 5 losses.
That is another 47 points, so on top of our 10 points, we would end up with 57 points.
...
But ... you may ask, what if we could convert the losses into wins too! Ask! Well, 22 wins would leave us with 76 points, which has been enough to get into the play-offs in 4 of the last 7 years!
....
That is what could happen if we convert 3 out of 3 into wins!
PS. Did today feel like a win ... or feel like a draw that we were lucky to win?
....
The conversion rates are really for looking back at games played so far, and thinking about whether or not our squad could have won n number of the draws, and then deciding whether survival is possible.

Feeling smug, Plange scored, and the Stoke match I picked out for a draw. So thats our surprise win, lets hope the other teams  I picked out to win against come to fruition. Need to find another draw against another opponent in our remaining games. That would give us 47 points. If thats not enough, then  hope we climb above the current 2 teams above us and Reading balls up and have their other 6 points that are currently suspended activated.

Right now, I'd probably pick out 8 of those where if you told me we'd drawn it I would be disappointed.
Birmingham, Hull, Peteborough, Barnsley, Coventry, Preston, Bristol City and Cardiff are all games we are more than capable of winning at home.
Fulham, Millwall and Sheffield United are the toughest on paper, but we've already proven we can pull results out of the bag in the tough games. What's crucial now is that we don't do what we tend to do in recent seasons, and lose to the teams near the bottom at home. When we were challenging in the play-offs, Peterborough at home is the kind of game we'd slip up in. Now they're our direct rival, we can't afford to let any sides increase the gap at our expense.

Voting right now I would want it asap. We're on a good run, they're struggling. I think they will try and arrange it for as soon as possible too in case other games are lost to Covid between now and the end of the season. Perhaps they'll wait and see how we both get on in the Cup, if there's a free weekend there that's a possibility.
I'm sure that Sky and the EFL would love the spectacle of us being 6 points behind Cardiff and having them as the last two games of the season. I'm not sure my heart could take that though, the Sheffield Wednesday game was bad enough but that would be even worse.

Happy New Year!!! ?

Love that it was Wayne's son's first match in the away end. Anyone see him?

Gibbo out fishing on the Tees though but.

Well done lads great performance tonight. Only 4pts behind Barnsley. Come on you rams ?.

Great result tonight.
Fans loud and proud 
 

Get pegged back to 1 each and everyone thinks the worst. Great last few minutes and totally deserved. Proper football from Derby. Times are changing. COYR

Big Ravel creating 2 goals in 2 sun appearances. (I know it’s a stretch to give him credit for Mondays but he was closing their defender down when the mix up happened) ?

Obviously a much more simplified way of looking at things, and there's a lot of other considerations not taken in to account in this such as Cardiff's one game in hand and the form of every other side in the league but...
We have to play Cardiff twice still. A lot of ifs and buts, but if we can't beat them twice then our chances get a hell of a lot worse. So let's assume we can beat them twice, that 12 point gap would be 6 points, with a much better goal difference.
In the remaining 20 games we'd have once you take the Cardiff games away, we'd have to win 2 more than Cardiff to finish above them. So if Cardiff are the team to chase, it's not really than unattainable with the fight and desire we're showing.

Today certainly helps. 
We're now on 10 points, but really, spreading that points deduction as a 'per game' thing, we're, for the sake of comparison, really on 20. 
It's still a long way to go, and we need a good run to get us closer to wiping out the deficit, but really, we're doing far better than seemed possible already. 

This is mine, still happy with it. Coordinates are the stadium.

And me.

And me

Yes me

ASAP while we are playing well and haven't sold half the squad

Regarding ticket refunds, I would think that if you're pretty certain you would go to the rearranged match if fans are allowed, then hang on to it for now. 
Got to think of the extra admin involved with refunds and then rebooking tickets.