Dimmu

I'm a reasonably diplomatic, boring, steady middle aged bloke.
I'm reasonably well educated and can write reasonably well so try to choose words on this forum that express an opinion that may be different to others, without deliberately causing offence. I certainly don't have 'poor writing' or 'poor vocabulary' as anything like an excuse if I were to cause offence.........but, without being patronising, I do understand not all so-called offensive posts are intended to be offensive.
However, it's apparent that I'm not alone in finding it tiresome that almost every single thread deteriorates into a game of point scoring, oneupmanship and, increasingly, forum archeology, in order to be unpleasant to one another.
There seems to be, in equal measure, deliberate attempts to cause offence and seek offence and it's just not great reading. I'm not in the slightest bit supportive of closing down debates or censoring differences of opinion but the number of personal spats with unpleasant language is getting beyond a joke.
I can't blame the mods because, individually, most of these posts fall below the threshold of complaint but, collectively, they make this forum so much worse than it could be.
I came to this forum for camaraderie when we nearly went under as a club - and it was a source of great comfort, information and humour.
It's got to the point where I'm considering signing off and and using the Telegraph and Radio Derby as my main non-matchday links - they have limitations but they are civil.
Any ideas what we can do?

The point you make about playing for wins not draws is an interesting one. I think you have to have a clear strategy on this and need to be willing to change course in-play. I also think you need to factor in who you’re playing, H/A,  and where the oppo sits in the table. 
 
we have had a really good run points wise. It flatters our form (probably reflecting the quality of the league). Sometimes a team on a winning streak can tweak and play itself into better form. If we can do this I think we have a good chance of automatics especially if we strengthen in Jan
 
What I fear is that, if we fail to make the automatics, we don’t have the game management skills to win the play offs even though we have a strong squad 

Your play off figure of 1.89 for this season's play offs is a touch out, at the time of your post Stevenage's 1.86 was sixth best, but now it's Oxford's 1.85 ppg. Your point is still valid about it being the highest figure in recent years though. 

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

Although looking at figures usually bring me out in a rash, nice work Dimmu. 
I have a feeling in my gut (which may or may not be because Mrs. Chopper does all my meat, medium rare, including chicken) that our points per game for the second half of the season will be better than the first half, and also that the points needed for automatics will be lower. Some bookies apparently, somehow, have 8 teams as odds on for top 6 (no me neither), but it is indicative of the lack of standout teams and it's those teams that mean crazy figures for teams in the autos.
I might, just might be starting to feel the butterflies of optimism.

I think the phrase I've emboldened is key : most statistical analysis becomes more accurate and therefore more worthwhile as the number of datasets increase. For individual games, they can be a blunt instrument compared to other statistics and visual evidence.
The overall analysis is interesting though - thanks! 

It's actually good to see that over the last 10 games we are averaging 2.2 points a game.
Carry on with that type of a return and we finish the size mid 90 points.
All eyes on Jan and Feb.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89
This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.
If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.
People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23
We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.
Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

It's my birthday today and this is turning out to be a lovely present,cheers Paul warne and the boys,I am very happy 😁

If we lose it on a points deduction I think we should sue the club in question for cheating their way to the record.

A little bit of benchmarking to his earlier promotion seasons with Rovrum.
After 16 games, we currently have 27 points and sit 7th on the table, 9 points from the top.
2017 they had 25 points, 7th, 12 points from the top.
2019 25 points, 6th, 6 points from the top, who had a game in hand.
2021 31 points, 3rd, 3 points from the top.
At the end of the season:
2018 4th with 79 points, 19 points from the top.
2020 2nd with 62 points in 35 games, 5 points from the top who ended the season with a game less.
2022 2nd with 90 points, 2 points from the top.
We could do with a couple of extra points, but it's not looking too bad either.

I think we all have different limits on what is ethical and acceptable. I guess, your limits are at least close to being met.
Mine was bypassed some time ago already. I still enjoy occasionally playing (if you can call jogging after the ball that), but watching football does not interest me. I find it impossible to watch greed in action.

Have to admit, it wasn't easy to give up on something that has been a huge part of my life. 

I never watch football nowadays, just DCFC on Ramstv (before anyone chips in, it is football, but not necessarily as we know it).

I think we all have different limits on what is ethical and acceptable. I guess, your limits are at least close to being met.
Mine was bypassed some time ago already. I still enjoy occasionally playing (if you can call jogging after the ball that), but watching football does not interest me. I find it impossible to watch greed in action.

Have to admit, it wasn't easy to give up on something that has been a huge part of my life. 

VAR, money, the premier league, diving, administrations, FFP, European super league, stupid offside and handball rule changes.
But the final nail in the coffin is Aramco becoming FIFAs biggest sponsor. 
Get ready for every World Cup becoming a winter World Cup in an Arab state. Saudi teams turning up in the champions league and tearing it up with overpaid galácticos.
once they (and be ‘they’ I don’t mean ‘the Arabs’ I mean the infinitely rich money men) own FIFA, which they effectively do now, then the jumpers for goal posts game of football that we invented has gone forever I think. 
Maybe it’s always been this way. Since Abramovic and Man City, and it’s unfair to pick out the Saudis. Why shouldn’t they get involved? But this definitely feels like the beginning of the end. Or maybe the end of the end, the beginning of the end started a while ago. 

Your dream is safe, The planet will be destroyed once the Sun explodes in about 4 billion years time, But, If your dream has a caveat where all life wont be destroyed in your lifetime then...dream on 😁