Is our away form that bad?

[davenportram]

Apart from cup travesty let’s have a look

1st game of the season against Blackburn - a mad 15 minutes cost us 

the odd goal against Watford

the odd goal against Blades

Subderland - yep the worst of the four.

four losses against teams the top two and 6th and 8th. All teams tipped to be challenging. Honestly for playoffs we need to match and split points against the top 8 and then do better against the rest. (In fact if you split points with the top 8, win both against the bottom 6 and win two thirds of what’s left you get 24+36+36=96 points and a promotion

 

if our next four:

Millwall

Oxford

Coventry

Preston

yield four losses I’ll be more inclined to be worried about our away form

[rammieib]

Played four, lost four in the league.

Scored 3, conceded 9.

Throw in a 0-0 cup game loss to a L2 side.

A strategy which is to try and not concede yet we have conceded in each one.

Yep our form is atrocious.

Are the performances horrific? Not necessarily but I don’t believe it’s a strategy that ultimately delivers a positive result.

 

[jimtastic56]

Small margins are costing us . A misplaced pass or sticking 3 men in a wall etc. Against Millwall we have enough big lads to combat an airborne assault. Oxford could be our first away win .

[Bris Vegas]

We’ve lost every game so yes it is.

But there are already similarities with Nigel Clough’s latter seasons.

Back then we lost more than we won. Our away form was poor. 

But performances on the whole weren’t bad and defeats were stark contrast to those horrific earlier ones like the 1-4 against Scunthorpe. 

There were clear signs in Clough’s last two full seasons that we were getting better and we were no longer a ‘struggling’ side.

We have been competitive and we don’t look out of place so far this season. 

[davenportram]

4 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

We’ve lost every game so yes it is.

But there are already similarities with Nigel Clough’s latter seasons.

Back then we lost more than we won. Our away form was poor. 

But performances on the whole weren’t bad and defeats were stark contrast to those horrific earlier ones like the 1-4 against Scunthorpe. 

There were clear signs in Clough’s last two full seasons that we were getting better and we were no longer a ‘struggling’ side.

We have been competitive and we don’t look out of place so far this season. 

Results are terrible but contextually form is trends over time which has to take into account opposition.

 

if we win the next four away games then 50% win away from home isn’t terrible over 8 games.

 

four games isn’t enough to determine form without considering the oppisition

Edited Saturday at 14:47 by davenportram

[davenportram]

58 minutes ago, rammieib said:

Played four, lost four in the league.

Scored 3, conceded 9.

Throw in a 0-0 cup game loss to a L2 side.

A strategy which is to try and not concede yet we have conceded in each one.

Yep our form is atrocious.

Are the performances horrific? Not necessarily but I don’t believe it’s a strategy that ultimately delivers a positive result.

 

Form is performances over time 

4 games is a very small sample without considering opponents  - if we win the next four away then 50%win rate away from home is pretty decent.

 

results are bad but form it’s too early to tell

[Foreveram]

2 hours ago, davenportram said:

Apart from cup travesty let’s have a look

1st game of the season against Blackburn - a mad 15 minutes cost us 

the odd goal against Watford

the odd goal against Blades

Subderland - yep the worst of the four.

four losses against teams the top two and 6th and 8th. All teams tipped to be challenging. Honestly for playoffs we need to match and split points against the top 8 and then do better against the rest. (In fact if you split points with the top 8, win both against the bottom 6 and win two thirds of what’s left you get 24+36+36=96 points and a promotion

 

if our next four:

Millwall

Oxford

Coventry

Preston

yield four losses I’ll be more inclined to be worried about our away form

I must have missed it, when did the Stoke game get postponed 🤷🏻‍♂️

[davenportram]

3 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

I must have missed it, when did the Stoke game get postponed 🤷🏻‍♂️

Oops I missed that but my point is still valid

[Tyler Durden]

It is bad if you take the only sample we can which is from the start of the season.

My largest concern is that losing away will become a habit if we don't start bucking the trend very soon.

We haven't been handed our backsides on a plate really in any of the games so there is something to build on. But losing by one or ten still amounts to a loss. 

Timing of the first win is crucial.  

[tomsdubs]

Our away form feels very Clough era, never look too bad but never seem to have the quality to win the games. Hopefully we can grow that confidence away that we have at home.

[Jayram]

Played 4 lost 4 in the league is ± bad, regardless of the opposition and as Tyler says earlier in this thread losing cannot become a habit. A few people are pinning their hopes on beating the likes of Millwall and Oxford to break the cycle but these are not going to be walkovers; the management just need to be a little braver and concentrate on our strengths, not the oppositions. The first one will come soon I’m sure, we just need to be a bit bolder during the next four.

[jono]

3 hours ago, davenportram said:

Form is performances over time 

4 games is a very small sample without considering opponents  - if we win the next four away then 50%win rate away from home is pretty decent.

 

results are bad but form it’s too early to tell

Good away form would be 1 point per game for play off contenders. 4 games against better sides is as you say a very small skewed sample. 
But if we got 5 or 6 points from the next 4 away games that would to my mind indicate mid table/top 10 type of form ?
 

[cstand]

We have lost four away games to teams in the top eight of the championship including the top two teams.

The next four away games I am expecting to pick up points.

Better to judge the away form after these next four away games against sides not in the top eight.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 18:46 by cstand

[MadAmster]

It all depends on what you mean by the word "form".

Results wise it's poor. Absolutely.

Have we played badly? No.

Blackburn away. Take out that mad 15 minutes in the 2nd half when they scored 3 breakaway goals and we were in the game. Watford away was, IMO, a game where we didn't deserve to lose. Sheff U we lost to a free kick that probably wasn't and if we'd had a 6 foot bloke on the outside of the wall or if the outside man had jumped, it wouldn't have gone in. Sunderland were simply better, a Chirewa assist for a great strike form Jobe...

Basically, we haven't played particularly badly away from home. On "form", whether you see that as playing well or as getting good results, our 4 away defeats have been to clubs in the top 8. Games many fans predicted we'd lose.

I'm happy with where we currently are  and we'd be higher in the League with some better reffing in the Norwich game. I start to worry when we are not only losing, but playing badly as well. Right now, we are not.

[Leeds Ram]

It's too early to judge and we've started with some really difficult games. I'm feeling fairly confident our form will come good in more recent games! 

[Ambitious]

Watford, Sunderland, Sheff Utd & Blackburn have collectively taken 51 points from a possible 57 at home this season. All of them are unbeaten - Blackburn have a 100% win record having won all four, the rest have drawn one. 

If we were the only team struggling away at these sides, perhaps I’d share more concern but the performances have been more than decent but we have been beaten by better teams on the day. I’m far from concerned with our away form which has been a strength under Warne. 

[ariotofmyown]

22 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

Watford, Sunderland, Sheff Utd & Blackburn have collectively taken 51 points from a possible 57 at home this season. All of them are unbeaten - Blackburn have a 100% win record having won all four, the rest have drawn one. 

If we were the only team struggling away at these sides, perhaps I’d share more concern but the performances have been more than decent but we have been beaten by better teams on the day. I’m far from concerned with our away form which has been a strength under Warne. 

And those first two easier away games, we were still getting our squad together. I think 3 points from the first 3 tough games was better than expectations. We then won 3 out of the next 6, losing away to current top 2.

I think we'll be threatening the playoffs by early December, then fall away after a very tough run up to the halfway point: Leeds A, Burnley A, Portsmouth H, Luton A, WBA H.

We then end the year with Leeds again at Home, so then expecting lots of no-context posts of how Warne has shown he isn't good enough to get us into the Prem.

Happy New Year!

[MadAmster]

25 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

And those first two easier away games, we were still getting our squad together. I think 3 points from the first 3 tough games was better than expectations. We then won 3 out of the next 6, losing away to current top 2.

I think we'll be threatening the playoffs by early December, then fall away after a very tough run up to the halfway point: Leeds A, Burnley A, Portsmouth H, Luton A, WBA H.

We then end the year with Leeds again at Home, so then expecting lots of no-context posts of how Warne has shown he isn't good enough to get us into the Prem.

Happy New Year!

We have a decent squad, IMO. One that will see us safe from relegation and possibly comfortably in midtable come the end of the season. December will be a tough month. The wrist slashers will be all over asocial media saying exactly the bit in bold in the quote. IMO, it will show nothing of the sort. After 2 seasons of freebies and loans and last summer on a limited budget, we're doing nicely, thank you. The likes of Sunderland etc are where we may realistically hope to be in 2 to 3 seasons. Until then, we do our job by supporting the lads through thick and thin.

COYR!

[jono]

3 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

And those first two easier away games, we were still getting our squad together. I think 3 points from the first 3 tough games was better than expectations. We then won 3 out of the next 6, losing away to current top 2.

I think we'll be threatening the playoffs by early December, then fall away after a very tough run up to the halfway point: Leeds A, Burnley A, Portsmouth H, Luton A, WBA H.

We then end the year with Leeds again at Home, so then expecting lots of no-context posts of how Warne has shown he isn't good enough to get us into the Prem.

Happy New Year!

I’m worried about Burnley away ! It’ll be my first Rams away day and sitting with Burnley supporting mate. Going to have sit on my hands and be mr affable. God knows what’ll happen if we score .. any advice ? 🤣

[ariotofmyown]

1 hour ago, jono said:

I’m worried about Burnley away ! It’ll be my first Rams away day and sitting with Burnley supporting mate. Going to have sit on my hands and be mr affable. God knows what’ll happen if we score .. any advice ? 🤣

I'm quote a pro, probably cos my first ever Derby game was sitting in Wolves fans as we beat them 3-2 with 2 late goals.

Good tactic is to drop a comment in early to help disguise any involuntary moves later on. At Oxford last year, I said "surely that's a red" to the guy next to me when Wildsmith brought down their attacker.

I was then able to smugly laugh to myself as the mood started to gloom within the Oxford fans. Of course it's better to be with you own fans, but it's a different sort of fun to see everyone around you melt down.