Realistic expectations for this season.

[May Contain Nuts]

The shittest entrants to the goal of the year competition in the club's history.

Might even be won by the 'penalty of greatest importance' or similar.

Edited August 3 by May Contain Nuts

[europia]

13 hours ago, Foreveram said:

Bookmakers have us finishing 14/16 .

Yes that's fairly realistic looking at the squad we have, with no stellar signings likely. Let's not forget, the Ch'ship is one of the most competitive leagues in Europe. 

[eccles the ram]

Team confidence is paramount to this season. Start badly with only a couple of wins ( I hope not) and with some disgruntled fans baying for blood, we could be in a relegation fight. Every game is going to be different so we the fans have to commit to a 'siege mentality ' for each game. If and it is a big if, we get three or four decent players in,including a decent striker, mid table for me is a good season. If not, then perhaps bottom six. My heart would love top six but that, unfortunately, will not happen for a few more years. Hopefully still be alive when we reach our goal!

[IlsonDerby]

NTT20 podcast have us down as 22nd this season. 
 

Though they have Blackburn, Oxford and Pompey much higher than us. 
 

I wouldn’t swap a single bit of oxfords business for our business this window so far and we were better than them in every department last season. I’m confident we finish above Oxford, just need two more teams to get above! 

[Ravanelli]

3 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

NTT20 podcast have us down as 22nd this season. 
 

Though they have Blackburn, Oxford and Pompey much higher than us. 
 

I wouldn’t swap a single bit of oxfords business for our business this window so far and we were better than them in every department last season. I’m confident we finish above Oxford, just need two more teams to get above! 

Is it a coincidence that one of the NTT20 presenters is a mad Oxford fan? They finished 15 points behind us last season and only scrapped into the top 6 because of the tremendous start they had under Manning. When they played us in August they played us off the park but after he left I would guess their form was no better than mid table.

 

[Ambitious]

6 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

NTT20 podcast have us down as 22nd this season. 
 

Though they have Blackburn, Oxford and Pompey much higher than us. 
 

I wouldn’t swap a single bit of oxfords business for our business this window so far and we were better than them in every department last season. I’m confident we finish above Oxford, just need two more teams to get above! 

I'd have Portsmouth as bottom, personally. I know their fans are of a similar mindset too. 

[Ravanelli]

2 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I'd have Portsmouth as bottom, personally. I know their fans are of a similar mindset too. 

Every forecast I have seen so far has Oxford bottom which is another thing that winds me up about the NTT20 one. I'm going to punish myself now and listen to the Second Tier one where no doubt they will slaughter Derby and PW in particular .

[IlsonDerby]

9 minutes ago, Ravanelli said:

Is it a coincidence that one of the NTT20 presenters is a mad Oxford fan? They finished 15 points behind us last season and only scrapped into the top 6 because of the tremendous start they had under Manning. When they played us in August they played us off the park but after he left I would guess their form was no better than mid table.

 

I actually don’t think so - Ali isn’t an Oxford fan and he had them higher than George who is the Oxford fan. They believe that their football style would translate well to the championship. 

7 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I'd have Portsmouth as bottom, personally. I know their fans are of a similar mindset too. 

Again they haven’t strengthened well but they point to a DOF who built a forest green side that went all the way up to league 1 and then in his first full season build a squad that went up as champions of league 1 at Pompey and Mousino being able to take that squad up as champions. 
 

Id say their transfer business is a little underwhelming combined with Bushop being out indefinitely with him needing heart surgery (goes without saying that I’d much rather him be available and not needing heart surgery as life > football) makes me hopeful we can finish above them. 

[IlsonDerby]

36 minutes ago, Ravanelli said:

Every forecast I have seen so far has Oxford bottom which is another thing that winds me up about the NTT20 one. I'm going to punish myself now and listen to the Second Tier one where no doubt they will slaughter Derby and PW in particular .

21st - I’ll take it 👀

[The_Sheriff]

NTT20 lads know their stuff but I'm a little disappointed they have us going down.   It does show what our intentions should be this season.

I am surprised they have all of Oxford Portsmouth and Plymouth above us.  They are basically saying they don't think Warne can do it at this level and that style of play won't work.

Unfortunately that view will add fuel to a fire that is always burning under the coal about Warne and warneball amongst sections of our fan base.

 

[Ambitious]

43 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

I actually don’t think so - Ali isn’t an Oxford fan and he had them higher than George who is the Oxford fan. They believe that their football style would translate well to the championship. 

Again they haven’t strengthened well but they point to a DOF who built a forest green side that went all the way up to league 1 and then in his first full season build a squad that went up as champions of league 1 at Pompey and Mousino being able to take that squad up as champions. 
 

Id say their transfer business is a little underwhelming combined with Bushop being out indefinitely with him needing heart surgery (goes without saying that I’d much rather him be available and not needing heart surgery as life > football) makes me hopeful we can finish above them. 

They haven't strengthened and have lost 5 starters from their team last season. They've brought someone in who made his name in the Danish third division, which is a huge reach and points to a poor budget. Williams and Murphy will struggle at Championship level. 

I'm really surprised with Portsmouth - they lack depth all over the place too. 

They have Wigan 22/23 written all over them, for me, although I would argue that Wigan had more talent and depth in their team. 

[Srg]

14 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

They haven't strengthened and have lost 5 starters from their team last season. They've brought someone in who made his name in the Danish third division, which is a huge reach and points to a poor budget. Williams and Murphy will struggle at Championship level. 

I'm really surprised with Portsmouth - they lack depth all over the place too. 

They have Wigan 22/23 written all over them, for me, although I would argue that Wigan had more talent and depth in their team. 

Murphy went off injured in the first half of their last friendly too. Not sure how serious.

[IlsonDerby]

25 minutes ago, The_Sheriff said:

NTT20 lads know their stuff but I'm a little disappointed they have us going down.   It does show what our intentions should be this season.

I am surprised they have all of Oxford Portsmouth and Plymouth above us.  They are basically saying they don't think Warne can do it at this level and that style of play won't work.

Unfortunately that view will add fuel to a fire that is always burning under the coal about Warne and warneball amongst sections of our fan base.

 

Yeah they’re not a pair to make wild suggestions for clicks they genuinely believe in what they’re saying. I’m agreed. I expect us to struggle to stay up but I’ve agreed a bet with them for charity that we’ll finish above Oxford. 

23 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

They haven't strengthened and have lost 5 starters from their team last season. They've brought someone in who made his name in the Danish third division, which is a huge reach and points to a poor budget. Williams and Murphy will struggle at Championship level. 

I'm really surprised with Portsmouth - they lack depth all over the place too. 

They have Wigan 22/23 written all over them, for me, although I would argue that Wigan had more talent and depth in their team. 

Yeah I agree with you I was just relaying their reasons. I think Derby are in a mini league with Plymouth, Blackburn, Millwall, Preston, Oxford, Portsmouth, Watford and perhaps Hull if they can’t bring in who they need to. We need to be better than 3 of these sides. 
 

I also made the point to them that Warne has never had a competitive budget in this division so his style with Rotherham might not be the best indicator of his style with Derby. 
 

Second tier podcast seem to hate Warne as a manager. Think he’ll be the first casualty of the season but they have us staying up. 

[jimtastic56]

34 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

Yeah they’re not a pair to make wild suggestions for clicks they genuinely believe in what they’re saying. I’m agreed. I expect us to struggle to stay up but I’ve agreed a bet with them for charity that we’ll finish above Oxford. 

Yeah I agree with you I was just relaying their reasons. I think Derby are in a mini league with Plymouth, Blackburn, Millwall, Preston, Oxford, Portsmouth, Watford and perhaps Hull if they can’t bring in who they need to. We need to be better than 3 of these sides. 
 

I also made the point to them that Warne has never had a competitive budget in this division so his style with Rotherham might not be the best indicator of his style with Derby. 
 

Second tier podcast seem to hate Warne as a manager. Think he’ll be the first casualty of the season but they have us staying up. 

Warne is a short price to be the first managerial casualty in the Championship . But In the Prem - Cooper is only 1/6 . Making him a vertual “ Certanty “. 

[bcnram]

Warne has a very poor record in the championship & that does make me nervous. having said that, I have been more impressed with us passing the ball to each other for large parts of the games (but not all). I am happy with midfield, would like to see more control from defence and we are desperate for a forward who can hold a ball and operate between the posts. I will be disappointed if we are not reasonably comfortable. 

If we are not and are languishing in the bottom 5 or 6, has our owner got the nads to replace the management team with better experience of making a go of it in this league. 

[Mucker1884]

51 minutes ago, bcnram said:

Warne has a very poor record in the championship & that does make me nervous.

Panic ye not, buddy.

Last time he was here, he seemed to be doing alright, leaving little old Rotherham (Bless 'em!) in 8th place with games in hand.  All those Championship relegations were during his apprenticeship, back when he worra lad.

We'll be reet.    

[Ambitious]

A quick look around to see what fans of other clubs are saying - almost universally, no one is happy. Oxford and Coventry seem to be the only ones with a bit of optimism going into the season. I think some are unmoved, majority are hoping for several players to come in between now and the end of the window to give them a bit of hope. 

I get the feeling that fans of almost every club are feeling undercooked and in the market for a striker. These magical 15-20 goal strikers are going to be in high demand. 

[Matchday Fred]

NML said it, the target was the Championship. The expectation is to stay there with what will most probably be a bottom half finish. We don’t have the star quality to score the goals needed to do any better. Could change with loans, but keeper, left back, pacy winger, fox in the box are still missing. In the Champ we have to compete with parachute payments whilst being throttled by PSR. Mel went for it and ran into trouble.

but it is a pretty flat league made up of many traditional large clubs all dreaming of the holy land. No outright favourites with teams coming down no great shakes, and few outright weaklings. Anything could happen. At least we have some legs in midfield.

[IlsonDerby]

Magic 50 points keeps you up. 60 points comfortable lower mid table, can relax for the last few matches. 
 

So between 1.08 and 1.3 points per game we’ve got to be aiming for if we take what NML said at face value. 
 

3 points on Friday to get the ball rolling 🤞

[RodleyRam]

There's clearly still some transfer business to be done. If we can replicate the quality we got in so far I think we will be alright. Hard to see where the goals/creativity are coming from at the moment and we look a little slow at the back. Definitely need to strengthen with some genuine quality but I think PW knows that.

All that said, I expect incoming quality and for us to grind out enough results to sit around 16th. The major factor being squad togetherness and overall club stability, which I think counts for a lot in the Championship.

Much has been said about Warne's Championship pedigree but I think that assumes he hasn't learnt and isn't improving as a manager, which seems unrealistic to me. Last season showed that he can be tactical astute, change games through substitutions etc. All of which were criticisms in his first season. That's all to say that people saying his Championship record is poor and translating that into this season completely ignores the fact that it is possible for people to improve their performance with experience and better resources.

Staying clear of relegation and playing a more attractive brand of football would be a good step in the right direction for me. Nervous but excited for the season to start now.