The Ukraine War

[Ramarena]

12 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

Would Russia be more effective if Belarus enters the War?, Alexander Lukashenko is a despot, His people would surely revolt and he'd be fighting on 2 fronts

It’s an interesting question.

Old Luka’s got himself into a bit of a spot hasn’t he?

On the one hand, as you say he’d potentially face a revolt of some sort, his position is tenuous and as you say he’s a despot. On the other he needs to play up to Putin and keep him onside.

Yesterday he reiterated his support for Putin and the war, but put in the caveat that he would only join in if Belarus was attacked.

So who knows where his future lies. To answer your question, yes Belarusian troops and equipment would be useful to Russia. But only in so much as it’s a few more warm bodies to throw on the pile. But ultimately it’s a small and limited army, so wouldn’t change the direction of the war to much and Ukraine have heavily protected the northern border with Belarus, so an attack would be difficult.

One thing I find curious about Lukashenko is his role just before the war started.

He held a kind of press conference (picture below) for state TV, where he basically gave away Russia’s plans to invade, not only Ukraine, but Moldova and Transnistria as well. This has now been confirmed by various intelligence agencies who have Kremlin sources. It lead to the resignation of the Moldovan PM last week, so they could form a new government that couldn’t be influenced as easily by Russia.

I cannot work out if he meant to show the world Putin’s plans and earn some form of future redemption, or he’s just a massive idiot who couldn’t keep his mouth shut. Tough call.

[Ramarena]

1 hour ago, Ramarena said:

It’s an interesting question.

Old Luka’s got himself into a bit of a spot hasn’t he?

On the one hand, as you say he’d potentially face a revolt of some sort, his position is tenuous and as you say he’s a despot. On the other he needs to play up to Putin and keep him onside.

Yesterday he reiterated his support for Putin and the war, but put in the caveat that he would only join in if Belarus was attacked.

So who knows where his future lies. To answer your question, yes Belarusian troops and equipment would be useful to Russia. But only in so much as it’s a few more warm bodies to throw on the pile. But ultimately it’s a small and limited army, so wouldn’t change the direction of the war to much and Ukraine have heavily protected the northern border with Belarus, so an attack would be difficult.

One thing I find curious about Lukashenko is his role just before the war started.

He held a kind of press conference (picture below) for state TV, where he basically gave away Russia’s plans to invade, not only Ukraine, but Moldova and Transnistria as well. This has now been confirmed by various intelligence agencies who have Kremlin sources. It lead to the resignation of the Moldovan PM last week, so they could form a new government that couldn’t be influenced as easily by Russia.

I cannot work out if he meant to show the world Putin’s plans and earn some form of future redemption, or he’s just a massive idiot who couldn’t keep his mouth shut. Tough call.

I forgot to mention, on current numbers, Russia is losing the equivalent of the entire Belarusian army in around two months.

If they joined and suffered similar losses to Russia they could see the bulk of their armed forces wiped out (or whatever Lukashenko sends wiped out) pretty quickly. Which would be a huge problem for him domestically.

[Crewton]

I wonder if Putin is also starting to see the Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a threat to himself? Having a private army of desperate men always seemed like the starting point for a coup, though it also sounds like Prigozhin will be running out of desperate men soon, if the numbers for their losses is accurate, so he would need to get his skates on if that's his intention.

[Ram-Alf]

57 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

I forgot to mention, on current numbers, Russia is losing the equivalent of the entire Belarusian army in around two months.

If they joined and suffered similar losses to Russia they could see the bulk of their armed forces wiped out (or whatever Lukashenko sends wiped out) pretty quickly. Which would be a huge problem for him domestically.

Ah a sheep in Wolfs clothing then, I'd have thought then he's a tad concerned if Ukraine come out of this $hit show by joining NATO and the EU, Which is what Putin is concerned with...no buffer zone.

[Ramarena]

6 minutes ago, Crewton said:

I wonder if Putin is also starting to see the Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a threat to himself? Having a private army of desperate men always seemed like the starting point for a coup, though it also sounds like Prigozhin will be running out of desperate men soon, if the numbers for their losses is accurate, so he would need to get his skates on if that's his intention.

It’s always possible, his star has been elevated, he was given the chance to round up an army of sorts and throw them to the wolves in a bid to cement his position in the Russian elite. I actually thought Putin was going to keep him very close.

However he’s already failed, Wagner now looks incapable of mounting significant offensives and no longer has the resources and support of rhe army to call upon.

Prigozhin and is seemingly being cast aside for Gerasimov. I don’t think Putin can completely dispose of him as Wagner is a very useful outfit to have when you want to do dodgy things and don’t want your own military/country taking the front line flak.

The game of musical chairs continues 

[Ramarena]

16 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

Ah a sheep in Wolfs clothing then, I'd have thought then he's a tad concerned if Ukraine come out of this $hit show by joining NATO and the EU, Which is what Putin is concerned with...no buffer zone.

Indeed. This is why I think he’s trying to play both sides.

If Russia “wins”, he can say he helped. If Ukraine “wins” he can say he helped.

Power is everything to these people!

[Ramarena]

Biden in Kyiv!

Putin won’t be happy!

[sage]

Putin making his big speech

The West started the war.

Hitler was the West's fault. 

Biden is making all the terrible VAR decisions 

Etc vetc

 

[Crewton]

Doesn't he realise that "they made me do it" is a common excuse used by rapists and murderers? 

[BucksRam]

37 minutes ago, sage said:

Putin making his big speech

The West started the war.

Hitler was the West's fault. 

Biden is making all the terrible VAR decisions 

Etc vetc

 

We are defending people's lives, our home.....of course you are. 

All his cronies standing and clapping in sync.  Wouldn't be surprised if someone's not off camera with a Clap or Else sign.

[sage]

6 minutes ago, BucksRam said:

We are defending people's lives, our home.....of course you are. 

All his cronies standing and clapping in sync.  Wouldn't be surprised if someone's not off camera with a Clap or Else sign.

Or a picture of a hotel balcony

[Highgate]

5 hours ago, sage said:

Putin making his big speech

The West started the war.

Hitler was the West's fault. 

Biden is making all the terrible VAR decisions 

Etc vetc

I wonder to what extent he actually believes this garbage. Putin really does seem to believe in a warped version of Russian and Ukrainian history. And I wonder how much of the general Russian population believes it, given the never ending stream of domestic propaganda they are exposed to.  It's very hard to know. 

I don't know what is worse, Putin is just a brazen opportunistic liar or he really is a deluded true believer?  Maybe it's a bit of both. 

[Ramarena]

5 hours ago, Highgate said:

I wonder to what extent he actually believes this garbage. Putin really does seem to believe in a warped version of Russian and Ukrainian history. And I wonder how much of the general Russian population believes it, given the never ending stream of domestic propaganda they are exposed to.  It's very hard to know. 

I don't know what is worse, Putin is just a brazen opportunistic liar or he really is a deluded true believer?  Maybe it's a bit of both. 

It was a speech that displayed his weakness. 

In the lead up, Russian media had been expecting a big announcement/declaration about ramping up the war........none came. 

The only bit of "red meat" so to speak was his declaration that Russia was leaving the New Start Nuclear Treaty. But I'm almost sure he had already declared this, last summer?

It was very thin gruel, all he had was "its all the wests fault" and a few desperate "successes" of the Russian economy, that isn't struggling (honest). My favourite part was the declaration that grain exports are at record highs! Yeah that's down to all the Ukrainian grain you stole and sold off as your own. 

It was the speech of a man who is running out of room to manoeuvre. 

On the believing the West started the War, I'm absolutely certain he does. His conversations with Macron sound bonkers. He's a follower of Alexander Dugin, the guy who's daughter was blown up in a car bomb meant for him in Moscow last summer.

Dugin has some very warped ideas and is very much a Russian imperialist. Putin seems fully invested in this ideology.

Ironically I've had some very strange chat's with people here that believe the same. Everything is the West/NATO/USA's fault and they will absolutely not listen to criticism of Russia, even when you bring up genocide. 

I mean sure the West/NATO/USA have things you can absolutely condemn them for. But to ignore Russian atrocities is beyond the pale!

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Ramarena

[Highgate]

1 hour ago, Ramarena said:

It was a speech that displayed his weakness. 

In the lead up, Russian media had been expecting a big announcement/declaration about ramping up the war........none came. 

The only bit of "red meat" so to speak was his declaration that Russia was leaving the New Start Nuclear Treaty. But I'm almost sure he had already declared this, last summer?

It was very thin gruel, all he had was "its all the wests fault" and a few desperate "successes" of the Russian economy, that isn't struggling (honest). My favourite part was the declaration that grain exports are at record highs! Yeah that's down to all the Ukrainian grain you stole and sold off as your own. 

It was the speech of a man who is running out of room to manoeuvre. 

On the believing the West started the War, I'm absolutely certain he does. His conversations with Macron sound bonkers. He's a follower of Alexander Dugin, the guy who's daughter was blown up in a car bomb meant for him in Moscow last summer.

Dugin has some very warped ideas and is very much a Russian imperialist. Putin seems fully invested in this ideology.

Ironically I've had some very strange chat's with people here that believe the same. Everything is the West/NATO/USA's fault and they will absolutely not listen to criticism of Russia, even when you bring up genocide. 

I mean sure the West/NATO/USA have things you can absolutely condemn them for. But to ignore Russian atrocities is beyond the pale!

Yeah Putin does certainly seem to yearn for a return to the days for the old Soviet Union, the collapse of which he has described as 'the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century'.  So he is an idealogue certainly, I just find it hard to believe he buys into all the propaganda that is being spun, but I really don't know. 

I'd definitely condemn the West/USA for numerous things in the past. The list is a long one actually in my opinion.  But Russian atrocities within Russia as well as in Chechnya, Syria and Ukraine? That's all Putin

 

[Rev]

10 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Yeah Putin does certainly seem to yearn for a return to the days for the old Soviet Union, the collapse of which he has described as 'the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century'.  So he is an idealogue certainly, I just find it hard to believe he buys into all the propaganda that is being spun, but I really don't know. 

I'd definitely condemn the West/USA for numerous things in the past. The list is a long one actually in my opinion.  But Russian atrocities within Russia as well as in Chechnya, Syria and Ukraine? That's all Putin

 

A speech for the domestic audience, and them alone. 

Imagine being a Russian citizen at the moment, unless you're actively looking for a different angle you're being fed the official line, and probably nodding your head in agreement. 

I fear we've been locked into a decades long conflict, gradually drip feeding more and more resources into the defense of Ukraine, yet never really seeing a resolution. 

 

[Highgate]

14 minutes ago, Rev said:

A speech for the domestic audience, and them alone. 

Imagine being a Russian citizen at the moment, unless you're actively looking for a different angle you're being fed the official line, and probably nodding your head in agreement. 

I fear we've been locked into a decades long conflict, gradually drip feeding more and more resources into the defense of Ukraine, yet never really seeing a resolution. 

Absolutely, that's the only audience he needs to worry about really.  If they start to turn against him, then his days really are numbered. 

From what I can gather there seems there seems be a divide among the Russian population.  Younger people and those from large cities are more likely to be skeptical or even critical of Putin, whereas older people and those from rural areas (who are more likely to be entirely dependent on Russian state sources for information) are more likely to be fully behind him.  But it's hard properly assess as so many people are understandably wary of being open about their views if they oppose Putin.  

I hope you are wrong about the decades long conflict, but I think everyone fears that this won't be over anytime soon.  An awful lot depends on Putin's successor if that were to happen anytime soon. 

 

[Ramarena]

41 minutes ago, Rev said:

A speech for the domestic audience, and them alone. 

Imagine being a Russian citizen at the moment, unless you're actively looking for a different angle you're being fed the official line, and probably nodding your head in agreement. 

I fear we've been locked into a decades long conflict, gradually drip feeding more and more resources into the defense of Ukraine, yet never really seeing a resolution. 

 

It’s possible this could go on for years. It depends how much Russia can take I suppose.

Ukraine will never back down, it’s their country, their lives they are fighting for, so you expect them to do whatever it takes.

Russia on the other hand, haven’t got the same investment, other than ideology. How long can they keep throwing lives, equipment and money at this?

I think this summer is going to be crucial, Russia seems to be losing the ability to counter, after suffering big losses, Ukraine has suffered significant losses too, but has been holding a large amount back in reserve for the summer offensive.

Hopefully they will be able to push a weakened Russia back significantly. The long term objective has to be push them to the border, then set up a heavily militarised border, to stop further incursions.

I don’t know if Ukraine will get there, but it’s the only option they have and it won’t stop Russia making daft attempts to destabilise Ukraine in future.

Nothing will change till Russia changes.

[Ramarena]

35 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Absolutely, that's the only audience he needs to worry about really.  If they start to turn against him, then his days really are numbered. 

From what I can gather there seems there seems be a divide among the Russian population.  Younger people and those from large cities are more likely to be skeptical or even critical of Putin, whereas older people and those from rural areas (who are more likely to be entirely dependent on Russian state sources for information) are more likely to be fully behind him.  But it's hard properly assess as so many people are understandably wary of being open about their views if they oppose Putin.  

I hope you are wrong about the decades long conflict, but I think everyone fears that this won't be over anytime soon.  An awful lot depends on Putin's successor if that were to happen anytime soon. 

 

Agreed, although I would add the caveat that he’s also appealing to those in the West, who are sympathetic to his cause and willing to  undermine their own countries and Ukraine to further his agenda abroad and erode negative Russian/Putin sentiment.

[Ram-Alf]

I watched the Ukraine Diaries yesterday, Only got to April where this Man went to rescue his Mother who was holed up in her 9th floor apartment where bombs were falling day and night, He had to get there through the underground subway which took him around 90mins.

When getting there his mother was in floods of tears and she hugged him and cried and cried, It had me going for sure and I'm a tough old boy, It's these things that bring home the realities of War...I couldn't watch anymore or I'd have been in bits.

10s of 1000s more lives will be lost, Lives will be destroyed, Children will grow up with hate in their bodies, But they have to defend what they have and drive out the attackers in their Country, I have no answer I'm afraid even if Putin is dethroned...who moves into the void?

Edited February 22, 2023 by The Last Post

[Ramarena]

Looks like Prigozhin is attacking the Russian MOD (specifically his rival Gerasimov) and the Russian political elite, over being hung out to dry with no ammunition replenishment or support.

Seems he’s got himself in too deep!