The Ukraine War

[Alph]

56 minutes ago, David said:

You don’t believe NATO will respond in any military way at all if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine?

Just can’t see it, whilst I don’t believe it will be nuke for nuke, Macron has even said France won’t get involved in that, bombs will fly as the US will want to protect their “World Police” image.

Right now Putin is the one looking weak and a wally, if he sets a nuke off and the US do nothing with the NATO sheep, it’s them that will look weak to the rest of the world.

They all want to portray this image of power and strength.

China will be looking on and thinking, we may as well take Taiwan.

 

I just don't see what they can do. In the 60's I think America was much more aggressive and still avoided direct war with Russia over the Cuban Missile crisis. And it was much closer to home. According to recorded conversations many in the USA military wanted to deal with it by heavy handed force. Thankfully leaders of America and Russia saw some sense

Let's say Putin drops a WMD on Ukraine. I truly believe he would only do it at utter desperation. But let's say he does. What's America's response? 

They're surely not going to attack Russia. They're war mongering power hungry global thought police. But their strategy is very Roman Republic in the way they only ever "defend". So I can't see them targeting any Russian territory with anything similar. 

They could send military forces into Ukraine but I'm not sure how that would be seen and done. If they didn't take Putin's threats about intervention seriously then I think they would have already done it? 

I just think Putin has them by the knackers. 

It just becomes Russia's Vietnam. Or Russia's Hiroshima. Whichever way it goes I can only see NATO and USA sending equipment, containing the war to Ukraine, trying to get suitable peace terms and encouraging more NATO expansion so that Russia can go no further. 

I just can't for the life of me see how they can get involved without escalating it further. 

This assuming Putin is desperate enough or in power long enough to do such a thing. 

I've never thought of him as Bond villain exactly but it's no good continuing on the "he has some valid concerns" route. 

What we do know from history is Russian attitude to war. 

I guess the only difference between Russia and China being able to take what they want is China might fear sanctions more? 

[Day]

8 minutes ago, Alpha said:

I just don't see what they can do. In the 60's I think America was much more aggressive and still avoided direct war with Russia over the Cuban Missile crisis. And it was much closer to home. According to recorded conversations many in the USA military wanted to deal with it by heavy handed force. Thankfully leaders of America and Russia saw some sense

Let's say Putin drops a WMD on Ukraine. I truly believe he would only do it at utter desperation. But let's say he does. What's America's response? 

They're surely not going to attack Russia. They're war mongering power hungry global thought police. But their strategy is very Roman Republic in the way they only ever "defend". So I can't see them targeting any Russian territory with anything similar. 

They could send military forces into Ukraine but I'm not sure how that would be seen and done. If they didn't take Putin's threats about intervention seriously then I think they would have already done it? 

I just think Putin has them by the knackers. 

It just becomes Russia's Vietnam. Or Russia's Hiroshima. Whichever way it goes I can only see NATO and USA sending equipment, containing the war to Ukraine, trying to get suitable peace terms and encouraging more NATO expansion so that Russia can go no further. 

I just can't for the life of me see how they can get involved without escalating it further. 

This assuming Putin is desperate enough or in power long enough to do such a thing. 

I've never thought of him as Bond villain exactly but it's no good continuing on the "he has some valid concerns" route. 

What we do know from history is Russian attitude to war. 

I guess the only difference between Russia and China being able to take what they want is China might fear sanctions more? 

Realistically, how do you see this war end, how will the fighting finish and who walks away with what?

 

[Alph]

18 minutes ago, TuffLuff said:

Without sticking my ore in too much in this debate, I do like John Sweeney’s war reports on Twitter and I think a largely agree with the points he makes here.

Some quite reassuring points. I'm not sure about a disconnected Nuclear button though! 

[Alph]

6 minutes ago, David said:

Realistically, how do you see this war end, how will the fighting finish and who walks away with what?

 

Probably a winter stalemate leading to de-escalation. Leaving war torn East Ukraine to wipe off your holiday plans for the next 50 years. 

Disputed territory full of organised crime, sporadic fighting, human rights abuses and poverty? A drain on Russia and Ukraine's resources for decades. 

But I guess the depends how aggressive Ukraine will be from this point. 

I'm interested in what you and others think too. Where does it go long term? 

[Day]

11 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Probably a winter stalemate leading to de-escalation. Leaving war torn East Ukraine to wipe off your holiday plans for the next 50 years. 

Disputed territory full of organised crime, sporadic fighting, human rights abuses and poverty? A drain on Russia and Ukraine's resources for decades. 

But I guess the depends how aggressive Ukraine will be from this point. 

I'm interested in what you and others think too. Where does it go long term? 

I see Ukraine pushing Russia out of Kherson, launching offensive attacks in Crimea which tips Putin over the edge.

Tactical nuke launched at Kyiv.

US and UK lead the air assault hitting military targets, Moscow and St Petersburg with cruise missiles as Putin goes into hiding.

All hell breaks loose.

Zelenskyy smells blood, has the support from NATO and will use that to retake Crimea. Whilst I think Putin won't flip over losing recently annexed territory, Crimea is his baby and will protect it at all costs.

Sounds rather dramatic, seriously hope I'm wrong, I just don't see how this fizzles out with a peace agreement. Both sides are too deep into this now to concede.

Putin doesn't look a well man, whilst I won't buy into the media's medical diagnosis, it's clear from the shaking and physically looking weak he's not well.

I don't see him particularly caring what gets left behind at 70 years old, if the nuke hits part of Russia, so what, you only have to look at the mobilisation to see he doesn't give a s*** about his people, they are cannon fodder.

He will go into hiding with his family, lose power of the country, US and China police a new vote over power and attempt to bring peace.

US needs China, China needs the US, agree with that in the video. This is why I don't see them getting involved and remaining impartial in all this, although the signs are there that they are distancing themselves from Putin. 

Meanwhile Biden stands down, not enough marbles left to continue.

How it became a choice between Trump and Biden I'll never know.

[Ram-Alf]

Winter winter winter will be Putins Nemesis, Russian forces will desert en masse, Supplies will struggle to get through and he'll be isolated, It'll come from within once the rest of Russia see through the BS...imo ?

[Ram-Alf]

49 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Some quite reassuring points. I'm not sure about a disconnected Nuclear button though! 

Easy take the 13amp fuse out of the plug ?

[Alph]

1 minute ago, Unlucky Alf said:

Easy take the 13amp fuse out of the plug ?

Sergei and Sacha exchanging a smile as Putin's evil laugh echoes in the room. He's about to turn the utility room light on. Russian Boycie has played an absolute belter here. 

[JoetheRam]

Ukraine will take back pre-war territory, probably within the next 2 or 3 years.

Putin will then be removed from within or by "natural causes".

His successor will be given the ultimatum by the West to end the war immediately and Russia get all sanctions lifted swiftly. Leader can then claim to have ended economic hardship for Russia and they still get to keep Crimea but Ukraine joins the EU.

Or... Russia face a continuation of the fighting in which Ukraine, backed by the West continue the fight and re-take Crimea eventually leaving the successor and Russia up s*** creek internally and externally.

There won't be any nukes.

That's my theory anyway.

[Highgate]

5 hours ago, Alpha said:

Wasn't Khrushchev also a leader that understood war must be avoided? An enemy of America no doubt but also during the Cuban Missile crisis I think he played a role in calming things. I might be wrong. 

But it wouldn't be right to assume everyone in power in Russia is an ex KGB Soviet Union dreamer stuck in the 60's. There must be many who above all else care about Russia more than NATO, border disputes, oil prices etc etc. They must care about the condition Russia will be in by the time Putin is done. Those who would applaud Putin if he delivered Ukraine but now see him as an incompetent strategist. 

I don't think same as @Davidthat we are headed for a wider conflict. It's not a daft thing to think though. 

I do think if Ukraine keep pushing, winter comes, Russians can't get supplies and they become cold and hungry then start deserting or dying to well fed and rested Ukrainians... That Putin if in power will drop the big bombs on them. I really do. 

And he'll say "America did it in Japan and set the precedent." as soon as the last echos fade. 

Then I think the West will do absolutely nothing. Not with military. Because to do so takes us to what David rightly worries about. 

I mean there's a part of me that wants Ukraine to seek peace talks and kind of appease Putin. It's wrong but their war can go 2 ways as I see it. Putin is removed from within or Ukraine loses. That's always how it's seemed to me. Even if they win they'll lose because Putin will go as far as it takes and The West won't. 

Well Khrushchev was the guy that took a step back during the Cuban missile crisis (a crisis caused by the Soviet Union daring to do to the US, what the US was doing to the Soviet Union, namely putting missiles right on their border).  To be fair the US also agreed to dismantle missiles in Turkey in return for the Soviets doing the same in Cuba.  But it was too close a call really.  Russia has always maintained that it's nukes were for defensive purposes only, and up to now, they have kept their world. Even when things were going terribly in Afghanistan they did not use them, or even threaten to use them as far as I know.  

This is certainly the most dangerous real situation since the Cuban missile crisis (there have been alarming moments when the superpowers briefly thought that nukes had been launched against them,  but these were computer/human error). What worries me most is that the annexations are giving Putin a fig leaf of justification (using his own twisted logic) for defending 'Russia territory' using any means at his disposal.  It's really a horribly volatile situation now, and it's ominous that Putin has been pointing out that that precedent was set in the 40s by the US in Japan.  It's almost like he is talking himself into it.  Hopefully he isn't quite as crazy as that!  

[Mucker1884]

21 hours ago, Alpha said:

Sergei and Sacha exchanging a smile as Putin's evil laugh echoes in the room. He's about to turn the utility room light on. Russian Boycie has played an absolute belter here. 

@Boycski

[jono]

On 14/10/2022 at 10:57, David said:

I see Ukraine pushing Russia out of Kherson, launching offensive attacks in Crimea which tips Putin over the edge.

Tactical nuke launched at Kyiv.

US and UK lead the air assault hitting military targets, Moscow and St Petersburg with cruise missiles as Putin goes into hiding.

All hell breaks loose.

Zelenskyy smells blood, has the support from NATO and will use that to retake Crimea. Whilst I think Putin won't flip over losing recently annexed territory, Crimea is his baby and will protect it at all costs.

Sounds rather dramatic, seriously hope I'm wrong, I just don't see how this fizzles out with a peace agreement. Both sides are too deep into this now to concede.

Putin doesn't look a well man, whilst I won't buy into the media's medical diagnosis, it's clear from the shaking and physically looking weak he's not well.

I don't see him particularly caring what gets left behind at 70 years old, if the nuke hits part of Russia, so what, you only have to look at the mobilisation to see he doesn't give a s*** about his people, they are cannon fodder.

He will go into hiding with his family, lose power of the country, US and China police a new vote over power and attempt to bring peace.

US needs China, China needs the US, agree with that in the video. This is why I don't see them getting involved and remaining impartial in all this, although the signs are there that they are distancing themselves from Putin. 

Meanwhile Biden stands down, not enough marbles left to continue.

How it became a choice between Trump and Biden I'll never know.

How about Ukraine reclaiming (by force or otherwise)  all territory except Crimea then a UN controlled and monitored referendum in Crimea ? 

[Day]

1 hour ago, jono said:

How about Ukraine reclaiming (by force or otherwise)  all territory except Crimea then a UN controlled and monitored referendum in Crimea ? 

Sounds great, give Putin a ring see if he's interested. Doubt it, but worth a try

[jono]

59 minutes ago, David said:

Sounds great, give Putin a ring see if he's interested. Doubt it, but worth a try

I know. Given Putin’s mindset it will never happen while he is in charge. I suspect there is an argument or discussion that should have been had about Crimea. Is it perhaps their Northern Ireland ? Either way I am still horrified by Putin’s rhetoric. Just everything he has done is right out of the Nazi story book. “Greater Russia” Annexing of territories, propaganda, finding his modern version Jews in todays Western interests, the marginalising of none conforming groups, the macho posturing when self promoting. It is frightening in our connected world how he could come to be (I’d say the same about Trump .. ( I mean how ? !! ) 
 

We in the west are far from perfect but in essence all “we” do is mug people with corporate cheque books and get them to watch Disney on subscription. We don’t care what people are as long as they keep the money go round spinning. It isn’t always pretty but it does tend to avoid blowing things up and picking on people. ( Mind you Trump comes close but it looks like he’s failing  ) 
 

Meanwhile, as I have felt for the last 30 years we are due a huge reset. Folk want to blame a particular Govt or economic strategy but the reality is we don’t make a surplus of stuff the world buys, we import more than we export, we don’t have an empire giving us cheap raw materials or a manufacturing industry that is half a step ahead of others. Those are the things that meant jobs that paid real money, that meant we could afford public services that we all love and need. I am hugely fearful for the next 30 years. What we have grown up expecting as normal and virtually an entitlement, just might not be there and whether it’s Truss, Starmer, Corbyn or Boris will make no difference. Post North Sea Oil, post Covid, post Amazon and internet there are going to be difficult, interesting and challenging times. I wonder how it’s going to turn out. ? 

[Crewton]

If you read any reputable history of the Russian revolution, the Red Terror and Stalin's policy towards Ukraine between the exile of Trotsky and the start of WW2, you will spot so many parallels that you will wonder when Punxatawney Phil might pop up. 

[Crewton]

Nasty.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician-yuriy-kerpatenko-for-refusing-role-in-kherson-concert

[kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong]

15 hours ago, Crewton said:

If you read any reputable history of the Russian revolution, the Red Terror and Stalin's policy towards Ukraine between the exile of Trotsky and the start of WW2, you will spot so many parallels that you will wonder when Punxatawney Phil might pop up. 

[Ramarena]

You couldn’t make this poo up. Looks like the guy in charge of the mobilsation has been deaded……….errrrrrrrrr sorry I mean committed suicide!

https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/europe/vladimir-putins-head-ukraine-mobilisation-dies-possible-suicide-report-514518?amp

[Day]

Just now, Ramarena said:

You couldn’t make this poo up. Looks like the guy in charge of the mobilsation has been deaded……….errrrrrrrrr sorry I mean committed suicide!

https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/europe/vladimir-putins-head-ukraine-mobilisation-dies-possible-suicide-report-514518?amp

I am shocked. Shocked I tell you.

[Ramarena]

1 hour ago, Ramarena said:

You couldn’t make this poo up. Looks like the guy in charge of the mobilsation has been deaded……….errrrrrrrrr sorry I mean committed suicide!

https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/europe/vladimir-putins-head-ukraine-mobilisation-dies-possible-suicide-report-514518?amp

After doing a bit more digging, it looks like this guy wasn’t in charge of the overall mobilsation, he was in charge of the Eastern section.