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15 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

No idea Tamworth, just cynical old me thinking aloud. He was elected on an anticorruption ticket while stashing millions in tax havens, forgive me for thinking all these types are the same!

Nothing wrong with having a level of cynical thinking, it keeps us questioning things that are put in front of us.

On Zelenskyy I think you now have to judge him on his actions when the war started. He’d been saying this was coming and everyone else ignored him. 

When it did come, what did he do?

He stayed with his countrymen and women. There was an evacuation and govern in exile plan for him, but he never took it.

If the Ukrainian army had faltered in those opening days, the Wagner hit squad sent to kill him and his family may well have got him. 

Imagine making that decision to stay? Once it’s made, if anything goes wrong, then getting your family out alive is increasingly difficult.

I don’t think I would have made the same decision. Probably why I give this guy credit and more consideration to the usual leader.

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9 hours ago, Crewton said:

"Ukrainian conscription" is a bit of a myth. Reservists were called up just before Russia invaded, and the military has tried to coerce men into joining up in some areas, but there doesn't appear to be any effective follow-up system, unlike, say, the US system used for Vietnam. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/06/ukraines-military-plans-to-limit-free-movement-to-make-conscription-easier

Russian conscription, on the other hand, is far more systematic and increasingly broader, though it still seems to be focused on the poorer regions and the sons of the elite are still able to dodge the draft apparently. 

It's just another example of how Ukraine is defending itself at a disadvantage. 

I’d agree to an extent, they are certainly disadvantaged numerically.

Russia can draw large numbers of cannon fodder from the Urals and other places, so the ethnic Russians don’t feel like it’s their turn next. 

But many of these unfortunate people have no military experience or desire to fight, they are literally cannon fodder.

Looking at the WW1 style tactics Russia/Wagner is deploying in Bakhmut is horrific, they’ve literally tried getting guys with guns to charge Ukrainian defensive lines like 100 years ago.

Russia now faces a battle hardened and pretty much NATO level army, that’s the second largest in Europe.

Ukraine doesn’t have the same numbers to call on, but it’s still big and there is a vast difference between the quality and experience of Ukraine's army and it’s equipment, over Russia’s poorly equipped mainly mobilised force.

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On 07/01/2023 at 21:17, Ramarena said:

I’d agree to an extent, they are certainly disadvantaged numerically.

Russia can draw large numbers of cannon fodder from the Urals and other places, so the ethnic Russians don’t feel like it’s their turn next. 

But many of these unfortunate people have no military experience or desire to fight, they are literally cannon fodder.

Looking at the WW1 style tactics Russia/Wagner is deploying in Bakhmut is horrific, they’ve literally tried getting guys with guns to charge Ukrainian defensive lines like 100 years ago.

Russia now faces a battle hardened and pretty much NATO level army, that’s the second largest in Europe.

Ukraine doesn’t have the same numbers to call on, but it’s still big and there is a vast difference between the quality and experience of Ukraine's army and it’s equipment, over Russia’s poorly equipped mainly mobilised force.

Yes, Ukraine has greatly improved the strength and capability of its army since Russia simply walked into Crimea in 2014, and the weaknesses of the Russian armed forces have been badly exposed to date. It's notable that Ukraine has been able to retake occupied areas whilst endeavouring not to cause unnecessary suffering to civilians but Russia appears not to care how many civilians are harmed by its actions but are still being knocked backwards. 

Edited by Crewton
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Wagner say they’ve “found” the body of one of two British humanitarians who’d gone missing in Soledar.

https://news.sky.com/story/russias-wagner-group-claims-body-found-of-missing-british-aid-worker-in-ukraine-12784602

They say the body has both mens identity papers on it. But won’t declare who the body is. It all seems very dubious as you’d expect.

No doubt these guys were risking their lives in a war zone doing incredibly brave work trying to evacuate people from the front lines. It’s such a shame for their families, as they may never find out what actually happened with Wagner being at the centre of this.

Soledar has become very dangerous and the town is pretty much leveled now, it’s located near Bakhmut and after months of throwing bodies at Bakhmut without success, Wagner changed targets to attack Soledar under the cover of Putin’s faux  ceasefire. 

There seems to be an internal dynamic shift within the Russian hierarchy as well. With Putin drawing Prigozhin closer to him and telling the Russian army to back them up. This is being seen on the battle field at Soledar, with the remains of Russia’s elite units reformed and returned to the front line to help the push.

Russia is continually claiming to have taken the city, but Ukrainian forces are hanging on in defensive positions after ceding ground, under huge pressure from the attackers, as they throw bodies at the Ukrainian defensive lines to take the city and its salt mines.

 

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64246902

Interesting.

Obviously it’s a PR show for domestic consumption, to show he’s in control and pushing for a win.

But there is the admission in there that they have a big problem on their hands.

One things for sure, if I was Manturov I’d be looking for an escape route and staying away from windows and stairs, as he’s just had a massive target placed on his back!

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On the back of the terrible attack on the apartment building in Dnipro the other day comes a Ukrainian helicopter carrying Ukrainian interior minister Denys Monastyrsky crashed on a nursery killing several children.

15 people believed to have died in total, including the minister and some staff, but no word on if it was a terrible accident or conflict related, given how it’s been reported I’d say it’s probably an accident, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Edited by Ramarena
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Well this is cheery! Only 90 seconds to midnight ?

Doomsday Clock moves 10 seconds closer to midnight as Ukraine war rages

The Doomsday Clock moves 10 seconds closer to midnight - the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said Russia's "thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons remind the world that escalation of the conflict ... is a terrible risk."

https://news.sky.com/story/doomsday-clock-moves-10-seconds-closer-to-midnight-as-ukraine-war-rages-12794400

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3 hours ago, Crewton said:

Interesting piece on the founder of the Wagner Group and his private penal batallion. Definitely not Nazis though. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/24/yevgeny-prigozhin-the-hotdog-seller-who-rose-to-the-top-of-putin-war-machine-wagner-group?

Isn't this same guy that the government have allegedly help avoid sanctions that are being imposed on Russian oligarchs

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's a God Damn Nightmare

Russian man who was fined for dream about Zelenskyy is fined again for giving interviews - reports

A Russian man who was fined after describing a dream he had about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been been fined again for interviews he gave about his first fine, the independent outlet Mediazona reports.

In December, Ivan Losev, from the Siberian city of Chita, was convicted of  "discrediting" the army and fined 30,000 roubles after he described his dream on social media.

In his since-deleted post on Instagram, the Russian described his dream to his followers and made reference to Vladimir Putin's mobilisation.

"I dreamt that I was mobilised and brought to some kind of training camp when all of a sudden the Ukrainian armed forces, led by Zelenskyy, burst in," he wrote in the post, according to the Sibir.Realii news website.

"They tied everyone up, they were going to shoot, and at that moment Zelenskyy walked past me and said: 'Oh, I saw your stories on Instagram, Glory to Ukraine! I answer him: 'Glory to the heroes!'

"Zelenskyy joyfully taps me on the shoulder and says: 'So, let him go, shoot everyone else.'

"And here we are standing with him, looking at all this, and I say to him: 'Can I take a selfie with you for Instagram?' Zelenskyy says: 'You can.'"

After the fine, Mr Losev gave two separate interviews about his first fine: one with the BBC and the other with Russia's TV Rain.

He has now be fined 35,000 roubles on two counts of "discrediting" the Russian army for the two interviews.

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16 hours ago, Ram-a-lama fa fa fa said:

does anyone else wonder, when. and how this will end?

How this will end will most likely be one of two ways,

- Russia loses combat ability due to its heavy loses/can’t afford to keep ploughing huge sums of money into fighting in Ukraine, due to its unraveling economy.

- Ukraine pushes Russia back to the border and then sets up a heavily militarised border zone to stop future invasion and joins NATO and the EU.

When will any of this happen? Tough to say really. The sooner the better!

At present Russia is trying to get an offensive going, but have lost so many troops/equipment, with only Soledar and some small land gains to really show for it.

It’s estimated the Wagner group have lost 45,000 men (injured or dead) trying to take Soledar and Bakhmut, they only took Soledar, which is a small town that doesn’t have huge strategic value.

Thats the scale of the loses, it’s horrific, so many wasted lives for so little. I read a report yesterday that US intelligence believes that the Wagner group is now close to being operationally ineffective and thus is now being sidelined by Putin as his army returns to taking the brunt of it.

This leads us to Ukraines planned spring offensive. Ukraine is holding large numbers of troops back from defensive duties, to prepare for this offensive. Where they will target is being kept very quiet, as you’d expect, so it’s hard to speculate on its future success.

But what we do know is that Russia has burned through huge amounts of men, equipment and money. If any of the remaining Russian troops and their equipment fail, then Ukraine could make significant gains as the spring/summer progresses. Ukrainians are talking about being at Crimea by August/September, that’s hugely optimistic, but if it were the case then the war would be much closer to being over!

As for any chance of peace, well that’s sadly for the birds, even if the war officially ends.

Putin’s first requirement for any peace talks is for all Russias “gains” during this invasion must recognised internationally as being Russian. He also wants Ukraine to be “de militarised”, meaning they won’t be able to defend themselves the next time he decides to invade. How can Ukraine enter peace talks and trust a proven genocidal madman?

They can’t, unless they want to lose their country and Russia refuses to go home and save the lives of their troops. So here we are.

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27 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

How this will end will most likely be one of two ways,

- Russia loses combat ability due to its heavy loses/can’t afford to keep ploughing huge sums of money into fighting in Ukraine, due to its unraveling economy.

- Ukraine pushes Russia back to the border and then sets up a heavily militarised border zone to stop future invasion and joins NATO and the EU.

When will any of this happen? Tough to say really. The sooner the better!

At present Russia is trying to get an offensive going, but have lost so many troops/equipment, with only Soledar and some small land gains to really show for it.

It’s estimated the Wagner group have lost 45,000 men (injured or dead) trying to take Soledar and Bakhmut, they only took Soledar, which is a small town that doesn’t have huge strategic value.

Thats the scale of the loses, it’s horrific, so many wasted lives for so little. I read a report yesterday that US intelligence believes that the Wagner group is now close to being operationally ineffective and thus is now being sidelined by Putin as his army returns to taking the brunt of it.

This leads us to Ukraines planned spring offensive. Ukraine is holding large numbers of troops back from defensive duties, to prepare for this offensive. Where they will target is being kept very quiet, as you’d expect, so it’s hard to speculate on its future success.

But what we do know is that Russia has burned through huge amounts of men, equipment and money. If any of the remaining Russian troops and their equipment fail, then Ukraine could make significant gains as the spring/summer progresses. Ukrainians are talking about being at Crimea by August/September, that’s hugely optimistic, but if it were the case then the war would be much closer to being over!

As for any chance of peace, well that’s sadly for the birds, even if the war officially ends.

Putin’s first requirement for any peace talks is for all Russias “gains” during this invasion must recognised internationally as being Russian. He also wants Ukraine to be “de militarised”, meaning they won’t be able to defend themselves the next time he decides to invade. How can Ukraine enter peace talks and trust a proven genocidal madman?

They can’t, unless they want to lose their country and Russia refuses to go home and save the lives of their troops. So here we are.

Would Russia be more effective if Belarus enters the War?, Alexander Lukashenko is a despot, His people would surely revolt and he'd be fighting on 2 fronts

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