Academy Thread 21/22

[Comrade 86]

3 hours ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

Not at all. I’ve never suggested there was a lack of knowledge in any posters.

 

3 hours ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

The line only someone who, has never coached and never understood the nuances and difficulty involved in stepping onto the grass and helping someone become a better player, makes ?

3 hours ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

My point may have implied that I feel you don’t have that understanding or it could also imply that you don’t / can’t or won’t spend the time analyzing games or performances objectively or not. Either way I’m not fussed

15 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

And after all that self indulgent nonsense, you’re funny too ?

Risible.

[Ramslad1992]

4 hours ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

What wasn’t? Explaining in more detail the previous comments made in game in shortened form? Of course it’s not hard. Anyone can explain in detail, a topic they understand to help someone who doesn’t understand so well! What’s hard is writing it in short form well enough for them to understand!

You’re including Cashin Thompson and Plange in the same success category as the others after a handful of combined games? There’s my point from above right there! 

There we go. The line only someone who, has never coached and never understood the nuances and difficulty involved in stepping onto the grass and helping someone become a better player, makes ?

Its a little more skilled than watching a games and saying he’s good and he isn’t.

They’re in a safe place. They play and train every day in that safe space that no fans have access to. That’s where they do their learning. Are you fool enough to think any of them read a fans forum ??

It may not add anything to a debate you want any part of but that doesn’t mean I have no right to observe it and post it. That’s a football forum and as I said before it’s not particularly scathing and it’s definitely not insulting. If I’m paying to watch a 23s game in my own home I’m perfectly at liberty to post my observations on the game or the players providing it’s not, as I said earlier insulting or abusive. 

No let’s all just tell them they’re mini gods and made it already. Let’s let everyone not watching, read how wonderful things are when they aren’t. 

There’s a terribly condescending and patronising tone to your posts. Ironic really given your comments to me.

Not at all. I’ve never suggested there was a lack of knowledge in any posters. Quite the contrary in fact. This forum demonstrates there are many many posters who display excellent knowledge of the game and of players and most definitely the club. I enjoy reading many of the posters work on here, before during and after games. I don’t always agree with them but you’ll be hard pressed to dig up a post where I’ve dismissed someone else’s opinion as not being credible or worthy of posting it. 

My point may have implied that I feel you don’t have that understanding or it could also imply that you don’t / can’t or won’t spend the time analyzing games or performances objectively or not. Either way I’m not fussed, you could be Jose Mourinho for all I care, I just don’t like the fact you clearly feel I shouldn’t unless it’s to say something or someone was good.

If their reasons for being on here are more emotional reasons then it makes no sense for you to get upset when I said exactly that, and that it was perfectly normal, only for you to accuse me of being patronising. Make your mind up.

I haven’t written anyone off. Not the posters or the players. I feel many of them are being asked to play at a level they aren’t capable of yet but I’ve posted my reasoning behind that. Feel free to challenge that. 

I wasn’t trying to impress anyone with my posts or my knowledge. Which is precisely why I kept them short and sweet and lacking any real detail. Again feel free to discuss in more depth if you wish. I can talk development and coaching all day. But let’s do it via DMs shall we as I have no more inclination to bore people or ruin a thread than you do.

Good luck to you. That’s your prerogative and fair play to you for being so nice, trust me I know for a fact there aren’t enough people like you around pro football. But maybe if there were it wouldn’t be so exhilarating and divisive and not so many people would enjoy it. 

Enjoying my evening just fine. Watching a selection of League 1/2 football tonight. Just to keep my horizons and understanding as broad as I can.

 

 

[Jram]

@Ravabeerbellycome on, I wanna know. 

[Ravabeerbelly]

13 hours ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

I agree with a deal of what you say about the path to the first team but I'd counter that there are more successes than failures

With Academy footballers making up the top 2% of youth footballers in the country and less than 1% of academy footballers making a career playing pro football at any level I’d counter that argument.

 

[Ravabeerbelly]

16 minutes ago, Jram said:

@Ravabeerbellycome on, I wanna know. 

Like I want to post my CV on here ?

[RoyMac5]

16 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

With Academy footballers making up the top 2% of youth footballers in the country and less than 1% of academy footballers making a career playing pro football at any level I’d counter that argument.

 

I'm confused, where do grown up footballers come from if not an Academy? (Real question)

[Jram]

20 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

Like I want to post my CV on here ?

Just a general and brief summary would do 

[Ravabeerbelly]

1 hour ago, RoyMac5 said:

I'm confused, where do grown up footballers come from if not an Academy? (Real question)

92 football league clubs are allowed a maximum of 250 players in their academy at any one time. Some won’t fill that quota of course. But even allowing for that that’s approx 20,000 players….

Im not sure I have it in me to even comprehend the math as it’s an extremely nuanced process but there’s a constant trickle down effect with players being released from each age group every year.

However at the top end, at best, only half of the U16s will receive scholarships, possibly less than a third depending on the club and whether they have invested in Irish or European players that weren’t ever part of the English academy system. At the club I worked at they only planned on taking 4-6 scholars from their own system each season despite the u16s squad being as large as 18 players. The rest would be made up from released players from other clubs and foreign youngsters.

From the scholarship group of 20 players (approx) made up of two year groups maybe only 4-6 are given pro deals, often less than that. From those half dozen players 1 or 2 may make first team appearances within their pro contract period and even from those that do, not many will go on to earn a living and make a career out the game. 

It’s why I refuse to get over excited, despite the number of players currently getting opportunities here at Derby County, of the prospects of where or what level they’ll all end up playing. I’ve seen too many ‘dead certs’ disappear and I’ve seen players with 40/50 games under their belts move on and never get another pro deal anywhere.

Making a debut is one thing but given the reasons why so many are making debuts the chances of them going on and having full careers are still incredibly low. The numbers we are currently seeing at our club are incredibly warped for obvious reasons.

There are 92 clubs all bursting at the seams  with pro footballers all bursting at the seams financially with budgets that are overblown. To take players in they have to offer something their current players don’t offer and that’s hard for young players who are caught in a chicken and egg situation of needing experience and having no experience…..clubs with a tight budget (most of them) are balancing the books and weighing up possible sell ons with results and staying alive. 

None of that even considers the sheer number of unemployed ex pro footballers there are who are still at an age where they aren’t considered retired!

Pro football is an obscenely, disgustingly cut throat, horrible business. In favour one moment cast aside the next, for no apparent reason. It’s why I never ever begrudge a player of any age striking while the iron is hot when a club shows interest. It’s not disloyal it’s fighting fire with fire. I’ve seen players playing regularly and attracting interest from another club, to be cast aside or lose form and the club that was desperate to keep them dont want them and the club that was desperate to take them…don’t want them….all in the space of 4 months!!!

Edited February 23, 2022 by Ravabeerbelly

[IslandExile]

1 hour ago, RoyMac5 said:

I'm confused, where do grown up footballers come from if not an Academy? (Real question)

In the past Phil Gee, Ian Wright, Stuart Pearce, many others came from non-league football.

However, I would imagine that's less likely in these days when the scouting of 5 years olds probably blanket covers the whole country. Well not just this country....

[Ghost of Clough]

6 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

I'm confused, where do grown up footballers come from if not an Academy? (Real question)

I think he's trying to say only 2% of all players that enter an academy at any age make it as a pro.

The thing is, we aren't looking at a group of U8s. We're looking at U18s+, where the success rate is much higher.  I imagine an established Cat 1 academy has a higher success rate than the average too.

[Jram]

16 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I think he's trying to say only 2% of all players that enter an academy at any age make it as a pro.

The thing is, we aren't looking at a group of U8s. We're looking at U18s+, where the success rate is much higher.  I imagine an established Cat 1 academy has a higher success rate than the average too.

I also reckon its the case that there are loads and loads of academy players who could cope with first team football, it’s just difficult to get sufficient opportunities, particularly before the allure of nights out, alcohol etc become more attractive than the shocking hours professional footballers work.

So at Derby, for example, five years ago the likes of Thompson, Cashin, Plange, Stretton would have played for the 23s until they were 22 and never got the chance to prove they can play 

[Ghost of Clough]

19 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I think he's trying to say only 2% of all players that enter an academy at any age make it as a pro.

The thing is, we aren't looking at a group of U8s. We're looking at U18s+, where the success rate is much higher.  I imagine an established Cat 1 academy has a higher success rate than the average too.

Let's look at the reality of this by splitting the scholars into 3 periods

1. Relegation (2007) to Mel (2014)
2. Mel (2014) to 2019
3. 2019 to present

 

1. 42 first year scholars in this period. 6 of which have had or are having reasonable professional careers. A couple others have had reasonable careers in the Irish league. 14% made it pro.
2. 52 first year scholars in this period. All still in the early stages of their careers (aged 20-24). 10 will certainly be professional players, with a further 7 having very strong chances of establishing themselves. 19-33%
3. 33 first years scholars in this period, although some have been snapped up by other clubs this season. I'm expecting at least 14 to make it pro. 42%

[Ravabeerbelly]

20 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I think he's trying to say only 2% of all players that enter an academy at any age make it as a pro.

The 2% figure is in terms of the level academy players are at. They are in the top 2% standard wise of footballers relative to that age group.

The actual figure of those that are in academy football, that make a living as pro footballers is under 1%.

17 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Let's look at the reality of this by splitting the scholars into 3 periods

1. Relegation (2007) to Mel (2014)
2. Mel (2014) to 2019
3. 2019 to present

 

1. 42 first year scholars in this period. 6 of which have had or are having reasonable professional careers. A couple others have had reasonable careers in the Irish league. 14% made it pro.
2. 52 first year scholars in this period. All still in the early stages of their careers (aged 20-24). 10 will certainly be professional players, with a further 7 having very strong chances of establishing themselves. 19-33%
3. 33 first years scholars in this period, although some have been snapped up by other clubs this season. I'm expecting at least 14 to make it pro. 42%

That’s all well and good GoC and using Derby’s numbers of those that were awarded pro contracts may or may not reflect the overall % across all clubs….my feeling is it’s probably higher at Derby than many others but it’s not the highest by any means….but the point in question is those that make a living as pro footballers not those that are awarded pro contracts or make a debit or even a handful of appearances.

Having a career as a pro footballer is very different and making a living out of being one means more than earning a wage for a couple of years. 

Of course the numbers are skewed as the age groups change and the % of players who by the time they reach scholarship age that are awarded a pro contract is of course much higher. The funnel effect at the top end means that the natural sifting process should’ve worked to the point that anyone reaching the Professional Development Phase (18-21) has a realistic chance of having a career in the game but it’s still not that high. 

Many players, and circumstances and club will determine this, make appearances as a pro (sometimes as many as 70/80) but end up dropping out of full time football and playing very low levels or even not at all. Indeed, I saw a stat once that indicated in the region of 80% of players released from pro clubs between 18-21 don’t ever play football at any level above step 2 (Conf Nth/Sth) again. 

Becoming a pro footballer is extremely hard. The only job on the world where you need to be among the very best at it to even be given a training period (academy football). Being a pro footballer who makes football league appearances is even harder. But having a career and earning a living as a pro and maintaining the levels required to stay in the game is exceptionally difficult and most players aged 19-23 fall by the wayside eleven after looking like sure things after their first few games.  

[Ghost of Clough]

16 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

The 2% figure is in terms of the level academy players are at. They are in the top 2% standard wise of footballers relative to that age group.

16 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

The actual figure of those that are in academy football, that make a living as pro footballers is under 1%.

That’s all well and good GoC and using Derby’s numbers of those that were awarded pro contracts may or may not reflect the overall % across all clubs….my feeling is it’s probably higher at Derby than many others but it’s not the highest by any means….

Here I was thinking we were talking about our own youngsters making it as professional footballers....

16 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

but the point in question is those that make a living as pro footballers not those that are awarded pro contracts or make a debit or even a handful of appearances.

Having a career as a pro footballer is very different and making a living out of being one means more than earning a wage for a couple of years. 

All the players I have referred to when I say "reasonable professional careers" have had ro will have long established careers in professional football. Otherwise, the % would be much higher, with the likes of Ball and Dales playing professional football for a couple of years.

16 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

Of course the numbers are skewed as the age groups change and the % of players who by the time they reach scholarship age that are awarded a pro contract is of course much higher. The funnel effect at the top end means that the natural sifting process should’ve worked to the point that anyone reaching the Professional Development Phase (18-21) has a realistic chance of having a career in the game but it’s still not that high. 

As stated before, we are talking about the chance of scholars making it. This whole discussion started with people picking up on your harsh judgements on the chances of success for the U18s/23s. At no point has anyone mentioned younger age groups.

16 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

Many players, and circumstances and club will determine this, make appearances as a pro (sometimes as many as 70/80) but end up dropping out of full time football and playing very low levels or even not at all. Indeed, I saw a stat once that indicated in the region of 80% of players released from pro clubs between 18-21 don’t ever play football at any level above step 2 (Conf Nth/Sth) again. 

Becoming a pro footballer is extremely hard. The only job on the world where you need to be among the very best at it to even be given a training period (academy football). Being a pro footballer who makes football league appearances is even harder. But having a career and earning a living as a pro and maintaining the levels required to stay in the game is exceptionally difficult and most players aged 19-23 fall by the wayside eleven after looking like sure things after their first few games.  

I have no doubt about the accuracy of that figure. However, we aren't the average club. We're Derby County and the evidence suggests the youngsters who become scholars have a higher chance of success than the average club.

[angieram]

Another point to add to this discussion is that increasingly, the more established non-league clubs are now employing their footballers on a full time wage. Something my Alfreton Town mates are quite vocal about, as obviously they can't compete with that.

So, even outside of the Football League, some players can still make a decent living from the game. 

[Ravabeerbelly]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Here I was thinking we were talking about our own youngsters making it as professional footballers....

The discussion derived from the comment ‘more will make it than wont’ (paraphrasing). They won’t. Here or anywhere else. Scholars or not. The fact is although the % will be arbitrary and Cary from year to year and club to club, the fact is more won’t make it than will.

10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

All the players I have referred to when I say "reasonable professional careers" have had ro will have long established careers in professional football. Otherwise, the % would be much higher, with the likes of Ball and Dales playing professional football for a couple of years.

Most of that is pure conjecture, particularly in items 2 and 3. You said yourself “early stages of their career”, “strong chances” and “expecting”. Too many variables. And those that do are still in the minority of those that will make it. 

10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

As stated before, we are talking about the chance of scholars making it. This whole discussion started with people picking up on your harsh judgements on the chances of success for the U18s/23s. At no point has anyone mentioned younger age groups.

At no point did I suggest we were. I merely initiated a discussion on the facts surrounding academy football. Of course the filtering process leans towards more success in 18 year olds than it does 9 year olds. It’s a sliding scale of variables that lessen as they get older and more developed. Physically, socially, physiologically, technically and tactically. 
 

My comments may have been harsh but that doesn’t make them inaccurate or valid. It’s just my opinion. That’s football.

10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I have no doubt about the accuracy of that figure. However, we aren't the average club. We're Derby County and the evidence suggests the youngsters who become scholars have a higher chance of success than the average club.

We are Derby. 

The numbers are skewed more recently due to the ownership and the owners vision and subsequent downfall.

Let’s see if ‘we are derby’ holds when the take over is completed and the demand for promotion / trophies and success kicks in. 

I hope it does. But history suggests otherwise. 

[Ravabeerbelly]

13 minutes ago, angieram said:

Another point to add to this discussion is that increasingly, the more established non-league clubs are now employing their footballers on a full time wage. Something my Alfreton Town mates are quite vocal about, as obviously they can't compete with that.

So, even outside of the Football League, some players can still make a decent living from the game. 

Not many players playing below step 2 are earning full time money or earning a living out the game…other than the odd ex pro footballer!

There are only a handful of Step 2 clubs that even have full time status in order for players to be classified as professional.

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

The discussion derived from the comment ‘more will make it than wont’ (paraphrasing). They won’t. Here or anywhere else. Scholars or not. The fact is although the % will be arbitrary and Cary from year to year and club to club, the fact is more won’t make it than will.

The discussion actually derived from you stating players like Gordon, DRobinson, Ebiowei being fast-tracked for reasons other than their ability. An example being your hyperbolic criticism of Robinson never making a forward pass when this is blatantly not true.

You replied to @86 Hair Islands who stated "more successes than failures". However, this was in clear reference to Derby's U18 and U23 sides. The chance of success from that point is closer to "more successes than failures" than your 2%. The general trend is also heading towards getting at least 50% success rate from scholars, so even though we aren't there yet, there is a very good likelihood that we could very soon.

1 hour ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

Most of that is pure conjecture, particularly in items 2 and 3. You said yourself “early stages of their career”, “strong chances” and “expecting”. Too many variables. And those that do are still in the minority of those that will make it. 

Group 2.
The players I included in the 10 being: Gordon, Bogle, Mitchell-Lawson, Buchanan, Bird, Knight, Whittaker, Ebosele, Sibley, Thompson.
Four of those have already made over 100 appearances for professional English clubs, another four will hit that figure early next season. The other two being Ebosele and Thompson - you'll struggle to find many people saying they won't have professional careers.
The others who I feel will make it have more than shown evidence of being able to make it. Even if none of them do, my point is well and truly proven.

1 hour ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

At no point did I suggest we were. I merely initiated a discussion on the facts surrounding academy football. Of course the filtering process leans towards more success in 18 year olds than it does 9 year olds. It’s a sliding scale of variables that lessen as they get older and more developed. Physically, socially, physiologically, technically and tactically. 

Again, you directed the discussion away from the U18/23s at our club, to the entire academy system in the country. The points you raised being pretty much irrelevant to what others were discussing.

1 hour ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

My comments may have been harsh but that doesn’t make them inaccurate or valid. It’s just my opinion. That’s football.

Stating Robinson never makes a forward pass is as inaccurate as you can get. You defending such comments makes your opinions on young players worthless. Do you honestly stand by that comment and others like it?

[Ravabeerbelly]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The discussion actually derived from you stating players like Gordon, DRobinson, Ebiowei being fast-tracked for reasons other than their ability.

No it didn’t. The origin of the conversation was in respect of over critical or over blunt comments in respect of a players performance. The conversations regarding the reasons for players like Gordon and Kellyman being fast tracked for reasons beyond their current performance (not potential, that isn’t a reason for first team selection) was a completely different conversation. Don’t twist that to make your argument suit the current point. 

In respect of the others you mention, I don’t think Robinson is ready yet for the 23s and stand by it and Ebuowei hadn’t been picked for the 23s at that point and so 1st team selection, in my opinion, makes no sense when it’s based on U18s football. That’s just my opinion and maybe needs must but I fail to see the point of a 18>23>1st team progression if stages are skipped for no reason. There was no reason for him not to have played 23s he was tearing up 18s long before a first team selection. The opportunity to push him onto the 23s weeks ago was there.

But as I said, that’s a different discussion and not the one in question.

9 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

An example being your hyperbolic criticism of Robinson never making a forward pass when this is blatantly not true.

True or not, it was a statement (maybe an exaggeration) to make a point. He, in my opinion is finding life in the 23s hard and again in my opinion it’s damaging to his development to be in a situation where he can’t develop the other skills required to be a player. His passing range is limited (at the moment) and it was in response to the claim that he “likes to spray the ball around”.

9 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

You replied to @86 Hair Islands who stated "more successes than failures". However, this was in clear reference to Derby's U18 and U23 sides. The chance of success from that point is closer to "more successes than failures" than your 2%. The general trend is also heading towards getting at least 50% success rate from scholars, so even though we aren't there yet, there is a very good likelihood that we could very soon.

The 2% is in relation to the level or standard of player in academies. They are in the top 2% of footballers of their age in the country. Assuming of course the scouting networks are the clubs are doing their jobs which given the resources and expertise available we have to assume they are. Of course it has its nuances as players develop and stop developing but this accounts for then being released and players developing late and being taken on. The fact is though it’s a well known figure that less than 1% of academy footballers make a career out of playing football. It’s not my figure. I haven’t made it up. It’s a well published fact.

Regardless of what you say, there are not more success than failures. Again that’s not an opinion it is a fact. 

10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Group 2.
The players I included in the 10 being: Gordon, Bogle, Mitchell-Lawson, Buchanan, Bird, Knight, Whittaker, Ebosele, Sibley, Thompson.
Four of those have already made over 100 appearances for professional English clubs, another four will hit that figure early next season. The other two being Ebosele and Thompson - you'll struggle to find many people saying they won't have professional careers.
The others who I feel will make it have more than shown evidence of being able to make it. Even if none of them do, my point is well and truly proven.

Your point is not well and truly proven at all. Firstly it’s still a work in progress however you want to flower it up. I personally know players who made over 100 football league appearances and were playing in the Northern Premier before they were 24! The games riddled with them! I also know players who made similar amount of appearances that were policeman and not playing football at all by the same age! 

10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Again, you directed the discussion away from the U18/23s at our club, to the entire academy system in the country. The points you raised being pretty much irrelevant to what others were discussing.

I didn’t ‘direct’ any discussion away or towards anything for any other reason other than it evolved into what it did. What it is now is a point proving exercise by all involved, myself included and now you also.  There’s no need. It was just information. 

The points weren’t irrelevant at all. The conversation evolved into a discussion about academy football. At derby or elsewhere. It’s only relevant to the point that’s salient at that time, to that poster. Surely?

10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Stating Robinson never makes a forward pass is as inaccurate as you can get. You defending such comments makes your opinions on young players worthless. Do you honestly stand by that comment and others like it?

1. I didn’t say he never makes a forward pass. I said when he does it normally results in going off the pitch. (ie losing possession) Harsh I agree and maybe said with tongue in cheek has a different context. 

However….

2. It isn’t that inaccurate. Watch the games again and count. I reckon 2/3 forward passes per game and 50/50 success rate.

3. That’s not his fault. He’s playing in a level that he’s finding hard to find the time to pick his head up and see the forward pass and has little or no choice if he wants to retain possession. Which is why it’s not always good to be in this position as a club. It’s beneficial to some, some of the time. It’s not always good for others, all of the time.

So yes maybe I’d rephrase given the opportunity to review it….but yes I stand by the point I was making. 
 

I respect your views Ghost. You’re a poster I like reading but this has been taken to personally like an attack on the Derby County academy when it wasn’t meant as anything of the sort.

However once the club is bought and a new owner demands promotion and offers the manager funds to do so, even Derby’s impressive numbers in respect of the academy will take a tumble.

That’s just how football is.

[ossieram]

I used to enjoy looking in here.