Reykjanes awakes

[ramit]

Not expecting eruption until quakes are shallower, but many people are leaving the town, for this is how it is living in Grindavík now, a town of over 3000 people.  Red Cross has opened shelters, men will be working all night creating barriers around the power station at Svartsengi.

 

[Eddie]

Putting a bit of meat on the bones, the following two diagrams give a representation of strength and position of recent quakes (source - Icelandic Met Office).

In the first diagram, the location of each quake is marked on the map. A star indicates greater than or equal to 3.

The second diagram gives a clearer idea of the magnitude and frequency of the quakes...

I don't think I've ever seen so many 3's in such a short space of time. 

[Eddie]

Grindavik now being evacuated. Even a 'small' eruption (say less than 0.1 Km3) would be utterly devastating if it pops under the town. Also, there's a small chance of 'Bye bye Blue Lagoon'.

[Anag Ram]

7 hours ago, Eddie said:

Grindavik now being evacuated. Even a 'small' eruption (say less than 0.1 Km3) would be utterly devastating if it pops under the town. Also, there's a small chance of 'Bye bye Blue Lagoon'.

Difficult to imagine what that feels like for local residents.

I wonder if amongst the fear and uncertainty there’s a slight awe at the power of nature?

I can see at these times how such incidents are linked with a greater power being angry.

[ramit]

There is a lot of magma moving right under Grindavík.  Emergency crews have been called from there, plus a coastguard ship in harbor has moved away from shore.  The poor locals are going to need lots of support from the rest of us and they will get it, we stick together here. 

The magma stretches out under the sea, if it comes up there it will be explosive with lots of ash.  Others warn of the Krýsuvík area, a much closer system to Reykjavík which would be really bad and still others claim all this could lead to nothing at all.  Nervous times.

Edited November 11, 2023 by ramit
wording

[Grumpy Git]

Best wishes to you and your neighbours, ramit, (I've worked at a site in Hafnarfjörður a couple of times).

[ramit]

The quakes are mostly smaller now, with a few bigger one's in between.  A large crack in the ground has appeared running straight through the middle of Grindavík town.  Preparations are being made for residents to be allowed to quickly gather some belongings, left behind pets and so forth and a long row of cars is lined up awaiting to be let into the area.  Only those in the most eastern part of Grindavík town will apparently be allowed this, which is being criticized by other residents naturally.  This is crazy dangerous IMO, like Russian roulette, the ground can open at any time.  Perhaps using helicopters in the most dangerous areas would be a solution, ready for a quick takeoff, but that is also risky.  The unity of the townspeople has been disturbed in this discussion, not good to see.

[Comrade 86]

21 minutes ago, ramit said:

The quakes are mostly smaller now, with a few bigger one's in between.  A large crack in the ground has appeared running straight through the middle of Grindavík town.  Preparations are being made for residents to be allowed to quickly gather some belongings, left behind pets and so forth and a long row of cars is lined up awaiting to be let into the area.  Only those in the most eastern part of Grindavík town will apparently be allowed this, which is being criticized by other residents naturally.  This is crazy dangerous IMO, like Russian roulette, the ground can open at any time.  Perhaps using helicopters in the most dangerous areas would be a solution, ready for a quick takeoff, but that is also risky.  The unity of the townspeople has been disturbed in this discussion, not good to see.

Stay safe Ramit, you and all yours. Hope this is over sooner rather than later.

[Eddie]

Although the quakes are subsiding in intensity, this may not necessarily be a good sign. All of the Reykjanes eruptions in the current cycle (3 in the last couple of years) have followed a similar pattern - massive earthquake swarms with loads of 3+ magnitude as the deeper rocks are forced apart and the dyke forms, then a sustained drop in intensity and magnitude as the pressure drops and the magma starts to fill the newly-formed dyke. Then, the pressure rises again which triggers another burst of earthquake activity. Eventually something snaps - or the eruption fails.

This cycle of Reykjanes eruptions can go on for a century or two - and then the area goes quiet for a millennium. The current cycle has only just begun. Nothing can stop it - it is the very mechanism which formed Iceland in the first place (the separation of the North Atlantic and Eurasian plates along the line known as the 'Mid-Atlantic Ridge'.

[ramit]

Some pictures and videos from today.  The steam you see is from the burst hot water pipes

https://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2023/11/13/myndskeid_synir_sprungu_i_gegnum_i_grindavik/

 

Some people were allowed to quickly gather some belongings today under supervision of emergency volunteers.  Most locals have not been allowed in and might never be.  Talk of raising emergency housing for thousands of displaced people like we did after the Heimaey eruption.  No eruption yet and quakes move deeper again, but this is already bad.

https://www.visir.is/g/20232488576d

And one from RUV in English

https://www.ruv.is/frettir/innlent/2023-11-13-skemmdir-i-grindavik-minna-a-christchurch-396911

Edited November 13, 2023 by ramit
added

[ketteringram]

18 hours ago, Eddie said:

Although the quakes are subsiding in intensity, this may not necessarily be a good sign. All of the Reykjanes eruptions in the current cycle (3 in the last couple of years) have followed a similar pattern - massive earthquake swarms with loads of 3+ magnitude as the deeper rocks are forced apart and the dyke forms, then a sustained drop in intensity and magnitude as the pressure drops and the magma starts to fill the newly-formed dyke. Then, the pressure rises again which triggers another burst of earthquake activity. Eventually something snaps - or the eruption fails.

This cycle of Reykjanes eruptions can go on for a century or two - and then the area goes quiet for a millennium. The current cycle has only just begun. Nothing can stop it - it is the very mechanism which formed Iceland in the first place (the separation of the North Atlantic and Eurasian plates along the line known as the 'Mid-Atlantic Ridge'.

What would have to happen for someone to announce, it's ok, all the people who have been evacuated can go home now, it's all calmed down.

Or is that just never going to happen?

[oomarkwright]

What is the best platform to watch it live? 

[Eddie]

6 hours ago, ketteringram said:

What would have to happen for someone to announce, it's ok, all the people who have been evacuated can go home now, it's all calmed down.

Or is that just never going to happen?

When it pops elsewhere in the dyke basically - and that could be miles from where the current earthquake swarm is located. Magma tends to find the weakest point (a fault usually).

Alternatively, it could be a 'failed eruption' and the quakes just fade away to nothing, only to start elsewhere.

There are approximately 30 active volcanic systems (and between 130 and 150 volcanoes, active or inactive) in Iceland - the island was formed because it sits upon a volcanic 'hot spot' on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (the position where the North American and Eurasian plates are moving away from each other).

Until a couple of years ago, there had been no eruptions in Reykjanes for centuries - then Fagradalsfjall blew its nose. At the time, the Icelandic Met Office said that it could mark the start of many decades of unrest - and that unrest has already manifested itself in three minor eruptions, all in different spots in the area, over the last two years.

[Eddie]

5 hours ago, oomarkwright said:

What is the best platform to watch it live? 

There are a few webcams currently focused on the area, but until something pops, there is nothing to see. When it does, scientists will most definitely install cameras in great viewing positions. Volcanism is a major tourist attraction for Iceland. It's also the reason why the country is completely self-sufficient in renewable energy (30% geothermal, 70% hydro-electric).

YouTube will carry many feeds - there are also many linked from the Iceland Met Office and the Live From Iceland website.

https://livefromiceland.is/

Edited November 14, 2023 by Eddie

[ramit]

14 hours ago, Eddie said:

When it pops elsewhere in the dyke basically - and that could be miles from where the current earthquake swarm is located. Magma tends to find the weakest point (a fault usually).

Alternatively, it could be a 'failed eruption' and the quakes just fade away to nothing, only to start elsewhere.

There are approximately 30 active volcanic systems (and between 130 and 150 volcanoes, active or inactive) in Iceland - the island was formed because it sits upon a volcanic 'hot spot' on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (the position where the North American and Eurasian plates are moving away from each other).

Until a couple of years ago, there had been no eruptions in Reykjanes for centuries - then Fagradalsfjall blew its nose. At the time, the Icelandic Met Office said that it could mark the start of many decades of unrest - and that unrest has already manifested itself in three minor eruptions, all in different spots in the area, over the last two years.

The town is all torn up, most houses damaged, many uninhabitable, ground cables and pipes are history and so forth.  Even if the quakes and possible eventual eruption move from this area, it can still swing back and in coming seasons return to cause havoc.  Nobody is moving back to Grindavík any time soon, am afraid.

[maxjam]

15 hours ago, oomarkwright said:

What is the best platform to watch it live? 

Live views of Grindavík and earthquake monitor on youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=804nPrAUAxg

[Comrade 86]

Icelanders are a very hardy breed, but this must be very difficult, even for them. In some ways, a major quake would have been better, as there seems to be no 'closure', just a slow destruction of homes and infrastructure. It's very sad to see it and I can't imagine how folk on the ground must be feeling. Fingers and everything else crossed, the major quake either never arrives, or does so where less harm is done.

[ramit]

10 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Icelanders are a very hardy breed, but this must be very difficult, even for them. In some ways, a major quake would have been better, as there seems to be no 'closure', just a slow destruction of homes and infrastructure. It's very sad to see it and I can't imagine how folk on the ground must be feeling. Fingers and everything else crossed, the major quake either never arrives, or does so where less harm is done.

With every passing day the threat of eruption subsides, the magma sitting in huge pools under the surface slowly cools.  Grindavík is built on lava that flowed as magma into the sea 2000 years ago, the fault line runs straight through the town, perhaps should never have been built up originally. 

Yes, you are right, it is the slow destruction that is the hard thing to deal with.  Land is still sinking in Grindavík and today while people were gathering some things from their homes an alarm sounded off to evacuate the town immediately.  Gas had been measured at dangerous levels suddenly.  Close to 10% of Icelanders live there and with extended family and friends, this calamity touches every family in Iceland.  We will get through this together and worse if need be.

Thank you Comrade 86, your words of support are appreciated.

[ramit]

A video in English of a reporter tagging along with his parents to their house in Grindavík for a quick grab and go.

The gas emissions that forced evacuation today indicate that the depth to the magma is about 4-500 meters.

 

[ramit]

On 14/11/2023 at 09:24, ramit said:

With every passing day the threat of eruption subsides, the magma sitting in huge pools under the surface slowly cools.  Grindavík is built on lava that flowed as magma into the sea 2000 years ago, the fault line runs straight through the town, perhaps should never have been built up originally. 

Yes, you are right, it is the slow destruction that is the hard thing to deal with.  Land is still sinking in Grindavík and today while people were gathering some things from their homes an alarm sounded off to evacuate the town immediately.  Gas had been measured at dangerous levels suddenly.  Close to 10% of Icelanders live there and with extended family and friends, this calamity touches every family in Iceland.  We will get through this together and worse if need be.

Thank you Comrade 86, your words of support are appreciated.

It is 1%, not 10, but everyone knows everyone here, so close enough heh