Reykjanes awakes

[ramit]

What began suddenly as a powerful eruption has now died down completely, both scenarios have caught the volcanologists off guard and left them scratching heads as to what happens next.  Magma is still moving underground, this time under the geothermal power station at Svartsengi.  Will it surface, move to a different location?  Nobody seems to know.  The only certainty is uncertainty.

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, ramit said:

What began suddenly as a powerful eruption has now died down completely, both scenarios have caught the volcanologists off guard and left them scratching heads as to what happens next.  Magma is still moving underground, this time under the geothermal power station at Svartsengi.  Will it surface, move to a different location?  Nobody seems to know.  The only certainty is uncertainty.

It's the nature of the beast, unfortunately. Reykjanes volcanism seems to run in cycles of around a millennium - a 500-800 years snooze followed by 200-500 years of periodic unrest. Throw in the mantle plume - the engine which drives Iceland's volcanism - and any period of stability or certainty cannot ever be permanent. The first Reykjanes eruption in 2021 caught everyone by surprise at first - learned opinion was that the quakes were tectonic (as you know, Reykjanes peninsula is part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the North American and Eurasian plates separate at a rate of a couple of centimetres a year), so quake swarms happen with regularity, and nobody really knew when the next eruption cycle would start. Well, 4 short periods of volcanic activity in less than 3 years seems to indicate that the area has now kicked off its 'active' phase - the long snooze is over.

The good news, of course, is that eruptions in the area are seldom large - however, the previous cycle culminated in massive eruptions in 1226 (Reykjanes Fires, which had devastating consequences for local farming), so it has history. 

[Eddie]

Well, that was a short rest, wasn't it?

Pretty clear when it started.

[Eddie]

I think this means the end for Grindavik.

[Anag Ram]

On a more trivial note, my daughter is miffed she won’t get to see the Blue Lagoon next weekend 

[ramit]

That will teach me, this morning I did not start by checking the news, so I am checking reports to get up to speed with events.  Grindavík was evacuated early this morning when constant tremors indicated what was about to happen and everyone was out before the eruption began.  Good job there, but not as great is the fact that an erupting fissure is partly on the town side of earthwork barricades raised to redirect magma flow, so the town is in direct danger. 

New cracks have formed in town, the other day we lost a man down the big crack in the middle of town who was working on filling it in, it was much deeper than initially thought, attempts to find him have been stopped as it was too dangerous to lower men down there.

[ramit]

9 hours ago, Eddie said:

I think this means the end for Grindavik.

You may be right and if so it is a big blow.  We won't give it up easily though, everything will be done to protect the town.

[ramit]

 

[ramit]

 

[ramit]

Rescue workers are being diverted from their duties by people wandering onto the area in hopes of getting a closer look at the eruption.  The whole area is unsafe, fissures can open in new positions.  Unbelievable, I won't write what I am thinking.

Meanwhile two houses on fire in Grindavík as the flow creeps toward the center of town.

[Eddie]

7 hours ago, Anag Ram said:

On a more trivial note, my daughter is miffed she won’t get to see the Blue Lagoon next weekend 

The fiery orange lagoon, on the other hand...

IMO, the Blue Lagoon will be unlikely to ever re-open.

[Eddie]

Big quake under Bardarbunga today too. The big fellow's jealous of the attention that Reykjanes is getting.

[ramit]

It's a cold day, considerable frost, the electricity and hot water is out in Grindavík and we know what that means.  New cracks are all over town, this is quite bad.  The flow is steady and slow heading into town, has engulfed three houses so far.  This is already the worst damage from a volcanic eruption since Heimaey in 1973 and It´s just beginning.  The relatively slow start to the eruption is not a good sign, indicates a longer lasting eruption.

[Comrade 86]

43 minutes ago, ramit said:

It's a cold day, considerable frost, the electricity and hot water is out in Grindavík and we know what that means.  New cracks are all over town, this is quite bad.  The flow is steady and slow heading into town, has engulfed three houses so far.  This is already the worst damage from a volcanic eruption since Heimaey in 1973 and It´s just beginning.  The relatively slow start to the eruption is not a good sign, indicates a longer lasting eruption.

Stay safe mate 

[ramit]

8 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Stay safe mate 

Thanks mate.  I am safe, we are no longer on the Reykjanes peninsula, have become country folk in Stykkishólmur on the Snæfellsnes peninsula, a couple of hours drive west by northwest from Reykjavík.

It is the people of Grindavík that my thoughts are with and the fearless volunteers of the disaster relief squads out in force working throughout the night raising barriers with magma bubbling under their feet, as I sit comfortably in our living room waxing poetic, sipping Frapin cognac, feeling guilty not being there with them.

[ramit]

Land is rising again at Svartsengi (Blue Lagoon area)  as it did before this last eruption, so another eruption is expected within a month.

  @Eddie You seem to have been right, the town appears to have no chance of getting back to how it was, or possibly even as a permanent settlement of any kind.  A meeting was held with the locals who are now coming to grips with the reality of likely never going home again, some already had.  They are angry at government and demand to get a clear promise of their houses and debts being bought out by the state.  That is a very costly affair, but they are right when they point to the fact that Grindavík has been a highly productive money machine for the state through the decades.  This machine is now broken though, meaning less state income.

What nobody has mentioned is the possibility of the banks taking some of the hit.  They don't need to be asked, the government can set an emergency law at any time requiring such actions.  However, the conservative party sharing power in government would never support that.  Seems to me government must fall and new elections take place immediately, but that probably won't happen either, ministers love their seats too much.  We have inflation to deal with already, a major economic hit would tip many homes over the financial edge I fear.

[ramit]

Up until these latest eruptions, the prevailing scientific thought has been that there are 4 volcanic systems under Reykjanes peninsula, the revised opinion by some now is that it is in fact just 1 system, or at the very least all 4 interconnected.  A new eruption is now expected at any time, the magma chamber under Svartsengi has exceeded 9 million cubic meters in magma volume.  It will come up somewhere close to the last one.  Lots of quakes all over the peninsula and some in the sea and there is serious talk of the Reykjavík area being in considerable danger of lava flow in the near future, some scientists want protective walls being piled up sooner rather than later.  Much of the newer neighborhoods have unwisely been built over old lava fields.

Grindavík is finished, the town is torn apart.  Former inhabitants have been collecting their belongings from their houses in groups, each group having only 6 hours to clear everything out.  The weather has been really bad, delaying these actions, for roads have been snowed over.  It is like the townspeople have a curse on them, nothing goes their way.

There was hope that the sports arena had not been badly damaged, but then some sagging on the floor covering was noticed...

Pictures:

https://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2024/02/06/myndir_uppgotvudu_hyldypi_undir_gervigrasinu/

 

[ramit]

Eruption began at 6am in the same general area as the last one, fissure is 3km long, however lava flows west this time.

 

[Eddie]

Here we go again.

Off and on. we've got this to look forward to for decades in the Reykjanes region.

[Eddie]

This feed captures the start nicely. It develops very quickly, to a full-blown fissure eruption, in minutes. You have to dial the slider back a few hours to around 06:02.