The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[Dean (hick) Saunders]

Stats in Bolton show that in vaxinated population rate is <=10/100,000 so I think it is fair to say that we just need to complete the vaccine programme and were all good.

This is on assumption that we are going to be a nation that has small amount of corona around in hospitals for ever.

Interested in what places like Australia will end up with. They have been successful in their near zero corona approach but probably it is not sustainable if they want to properly turn their economy back on. Ie the rest of the world will accept it is ok to have some level of transmission without lock down, but know they have some level of herd immunity. Aus needs to convince their population to get to the same place as the rest of the world or end up being semi cut off.

[GboroRam]

1 hour ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

Stats in Bolton show that in vaxinated population rate is <=10/100,000 so I think it is fair to say that we just need to complete the vaccine programme and were all good.

This is on assumption that we are going to be a nation that has small amount of corona around in hospitals for ever.

Interested in what places like Australia will end up with. They have been successful in their near zero corona approach but probably it is not sustainable if they want to properly turn their economy back on. Ie the rest of the world will accept it is ok to have some level of transmission without lock down, but know they have some level of herd immunity. Aus needs to convince their population to get to the same place as the rest of the world or end up being semi cut off.

Australia has bought itself time. Imagine what could have been achieved in this country if we'd started with Australia levels of infection and kept it low with strict measures, and topped it off with the kind of vaccination regime the NHS has rolled out? 

[i-Ram]

7 hours ago, GboroRam said:

Australia has bought itself time. Imagine what could have been achieved in this country if we'd started with Australia levels of infection and kept it low with strict measures, and topped it off with the kind of vaccination regime the NHS has rolled out? 

Anarchy.

Policy worked ok for Australia as they are all criminals, or sons and daughters of criminals, effectively. They are ok being locked down. It’s in their DNA.

Edited May 30, 2021 by i-Ram

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

16 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

Anarchy.

Policy worked ok for Australia as they are all criminals, or sons and daughters of criminals, effectively. They are ok being locked down. It’s in their DNA.

#FreeAlbert

[Angry Ram]

12 hours ago, TexasRam said:

I’ve never hid my opinion and am happy to discuss it in many a venue in our fair city over a pint ????

I might have to take the baton here, I think he is in London and won’t travel outside, ever again. I will rack up in his front garden on one of those plastic patio chairs and put him right.

[Gone]

6 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

I might have to take the baton here, I think he is in London and won’t travel outside, ever again. I will rack up in his front garden on one of those plastic patio chairs and put him right.

Good man. However you’ll probably have to don’t it through the letter box as coming outside would mean he has the chance to catch the Timbuktu variant, which is far worse than the Kent, Thai and Indian ones and mean we’ll have to stay locked down for the next 7 years.......... just in case! 

[Angry Ram]

10 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Do you think the economy can survive another few months of effective shutdown, or people could deal with another winter of lockdown? Would a delay of removing all restrictions be a price worth paying to stop this happening?

Yes.. We can’t hide anymore.. 

 

10 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Do you know how effective they will be against future variants that could occur if we let Covid spread uncontrolled throughout the population with the removal of all restrictions?

Variants are a reality of life now.. What do you suggest we do until we understand each possible variant?

10 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

If we see exponential growth of cases each week until the end of June, opening everything up again will probably mean full lock down by September.

Quantify cases? Hospitalised, ventilated, minor symptoms.. What’s the point of the vaccination if it does not mean anything changes? We can always move the goal posts on how we judge COVID to suit any position.. Should we view equally serious conditions in the same light as COVID? Flu kills and can be passed on. The common cold? Quick dust off the old nuclear shelter, buy some beans and hunker down.. For those who are genuinely worried about their own personal circumstances, then fine, do what you have to do.. Don’t go to major events, don’t go shopping at peak times, don’t have a meal in a restaurant.. Your choice 100% and I would support anyone doing this.. But the few cannot control my life now.. Sorry that may seem harsh but I’ve had enough.. I’ve done everything asked, been a good boy but it can do one now.

[Angry Ram]

5 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Good man. However you’ll probably have to don’t it through the letter box as coming outside would mean he has the chance to catch the Timbuktu variant, which is far worse than the Kent, Thai and Indian ones and mean we’ll have to stay locked down for the next 7 years.......... just in case! 

I might bring the Hampshire variant with me now., However I could still have the London variant still in my system from my time there.. I did go to Cornwall last week as well.. He’s got no chance really has he ?

[RoyMac5]

10 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Do you know how effective they will be against future variants that could occur if we let Covid spread uncontrolled throughout the population with the removal of all restrictions?

Do you know the impact on non-vaccinated people if we yet again have huge infections numbers from current variants with higher transmission rates?

Do you know the future? No.

I think it can be extrapolated from the way the flu and other viruses mutate that covid will continue to mutate. We can also extrapolate that the vaccines can be tweeked to deal with this.

How will Covid spread uncontrolled, when many in the UK have already been vaccinated. Plus 'uncontrolled' for many seems to be little or no symptoms.

Do you really know what you are scared of?

[maxjam]

Assuming the vaccines work against the current variants and, as has been mooted we're due to boosters every year to cope with future variants, why is the June date now under threat of being delayed given that covid deaths are now lower than flu deaths and we've never locked down for that?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flu-and-pneumonia-overtake-covid-19-with-death-rate-at-lowest-level-in-seven-months-sc2s6mq9l

There must be a point at which 'acceptable losses' become a reality - as we do with flu - otherwise we'll be forever locked down until everything around us collapses. Or we'll become Australia ? 

 

 

[Tamworthram]

26 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Assuming the vaccines work against the current variants and, as has been mooted we're due to boosters every year to cope with future variants, why is the June date now under threat of being delayed given that covid deaths are now lower than flu deaths and we've never locked down for that?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flu-and-pneumonia-overtake-covid-19-with-death-rate-at-lowest-level-in-seven-months-sc2s6mq9l

There must be a point at which 'acceptable losses' become a reality - as we do with flu - otherwise we'll be forever locked down until everything around us collapses. Or we'll become Australia ? 

 

 

I think the argument is that relaxing restrictions will increase infection rates and, whilst the mortality rate might not increase significantly, hospitalisations might which would hinder the current plan to clear the massive backlog of non Covid cases/operations. 

[ariotofmyown]

33 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

Yes.. We can’t hide anymore.. 

 

Variants are a reality of life now.. What do you suggest we do until we understand each possible variant?

Quantify cases? Hospitalised, ventilated, minor symptoms.. What’s the point of the vaccination if it does not mean anything changes? We can always move the goal posts on how we judge COVID to suit any position.. Should we view equally serious conditions in the same light as COVID? Flu kills and can be passed on. The common cold? Quick dust off the old nuclear shelter, buy some beans and hunker down.. For those who are genuinely worried about their own personal circumstances, then fine, do what you have to do.. Don’t go to major events, don’t go shopping at peak times, don’t have a meal in a restaurant.. Your choice 100% and I would support anyone doing this.. But the few cannot control my life now.. Sorry that may seem harsh but I’ve had enough.. I’ve done everything asked, been a good boy but it can do one now.

The key thing is how many people will not have had their first vaccination by end of June. 

For those millions of people, a full removal of restrictions will be going back to Feb 2020 for them, except this time we have a variant which is much more transmissible. There will then be a third wave of infections.

I assume you agree with this, but think this is a risk worth taking as we know most hospitalisations and deaths were older people who will be vaccinated.  This is a fair assumption and I probably agree, but I would be a little concerned about the impacts to younger people. 2 twenty somethings at work both had it, one was seriously ill in hospital, the other has long covid symptoms over 6 months later. If all restrictions are removed, then we are giving the ok for all unvaccinated people to get it. That's a pretty big call.

However, I think the greatest concern is that allowing the virus to spread again is giving it another chance to mutate, and create a variant that might be able to beat the vaccination. Millions of infections really increase the risk of this happening.

We could be in a situation on 21st June where cases are already increasing rapidly and we still have 10-20 million adults not vaccinated. This seems like a risky time to potentially undo all the efforts of the last few months. We are supposed to be making decisions based of data, not dates. 

Not a great time to have an incompetent narcissist in charge.

[Angry Ram]

30 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

The key thing is how many people will not have had their first vaccination by end of June. 

For those millions of people, a full removal of restrictions will be going back to Feb 2020 for them, except this time we have a variant which is much more transmissible. There will then be a third wave of infections.

I assume you agree with this, but think this is a risk worth taking as we know most hospitalisations and deaths were older people who will be vaccinated.  This is a fair assumption and I probably agree, but I would be a little concerned about the impacts to younger people. 2 twenty somethings at work both had it, one was seriously ill in hospital, the other has long covid symptoms over 6 months later. If all restrictions are removed, then we are giving the ok for all unvaccinated people to get it. That's a pretty big call.

However, I think the greatest concern is that allowing the virus to spread again is giving it another chance to mutate, and create a variant that might be able to beat the vaccination. Millions of infections really increase the risk of this happening.

We could be in a situation on 21st June where cases are already increasing rapidly and we still have 10-20 million adults not vaccinated. This seems like a risky time to potentially undo all the efforts of the last few months. We are supposed to be making decisions based of data, not dates. 

Not a great time to have an incompetent narcissist in charge.

But what is the demographic of those people not vaccinated? Young who have a very rare chance of a serious case, or people who have refused? Where is the sense?

Sad as it is with that 20 year old at work, we have to start looking at the bigger picture now. We are a species that needs social interactions in all aspects of our lives.. Mental, commercial, everything.. We can keep running scared of infections until they are proven to be causing pressure elsewhere and even resulting in deaths. 

[MrPlinkett]

6 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

But what is the demographic of those people not vaccinated? Young who have a very rare chance of a serious case, or people who have refused? Where is the sense?

Sad as it is with that 20 year old at work, we have to start looking at the bigger picture now. We are a species that needs social interactions in all aspects of our lives.. Mental, commercial, everything.. We can keep running scared of infections until they are proven to be causing pressure elsewhere and even resulting in deaths. 

Without having any facts or evidence to support this, I still believe those most at risk will be vulnerable rather than younger people, those who have had the vaccine but have compromised immune systems and the vaccine didnt work as well as expected.

I am one of those, i dont know how well im protected but im now going out again, having shielded i want to take the risk now, if im not that well protected I am by default anyway because of the millions who are as its proven the vaccine helps prevent transmission.

Of course if we get to the point that we look like we are going into a position like we were in January with thousands dying then we have to do something  but right now nothing suggests that will happen.

Of course there will be stories of young health people who have died, but then i am sure that happens with other viruses like the FLU.

It would be great if no one was dying but im not sure we will ever get to a covid free place, even places like Australia will have to take a different stance at some point, they cant isolate themselves forever.

 

[ariotofmyown]

13 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

But what is the demographic of those people not vaccinated? Young who have a very rare chance of a serious case, or people who have refused? Where is the sense?

Sad as it is with that 20 year old at work, we have to start looking at the bigger picture now. We are a species that needs social interactions in all aspects of our lives.. Mental, commercial, everything.. We can keep running scared of infections until they are proven to be causing pressure elsewhere and even resulting in deaths. 

Well yeah, I said I probably agree with you on that point.

My main reason for questioning the wisdom of removing all restrictions is that you are gonna give the virus millions of chances to mutate again and best the vaccine. What is your answer to this point? 

[Angry Ram]

26 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Well yeah, I said I probably agree with you on that point.

My main reason for questioning the wisdom of removing all restrictions is that you are gonna give the virus millions of chances to mutate again and best the vaccine. What is your answer to this point? 

It’s a risk granted but to get the globe vaccinated, which it ultimately what you are saying, is not practical in any way. 
Fly mutates each year, all viruses mutate. 

[RoyMac5]

49 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Well yeah, I said I probably agree with you on that point.

My main reason for questioning the wisdom of removing all restrictions is that you are gonna give the virus millions of chances to mutate again and best the vaccine. What is your answer to this point? 

The vaccinated people are less likely to spread the virus that has been proven. All the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated and soon all of those groups will have had the opportunity to have their second vaccines (or have already?).

If you're worried about catching covid then stay in.

[ariotofmyown]

2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

The vaccinated people are less likely to spread the virus that has been proven. All the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated and soon all of those groups will have had the opportunity to have their second vaccines (or have already?).

If you're worried about catching covid then stay in.

Your answering a different question there.

I'm saying there will be millions of unvaccinated adults still by end of June. All adults are supposed have had 1 vaccinated by the end of July.

We're giving the virus a month to spread through all those unvaccinated adults at the time when there is a new variant in the uk that spread rapidly through India.

We are giving the virus one last chance to mutate into something that could evade our vaccines.

[ariotofmyown]

2 hours ago, Angry Ram said:

It’s a risk granted but to get the globe vaccinated, which it ultimately what you are saying, is not practical in any way. 
Fly mutates each year, all viruses mutate. 

I'm not saying that. With a clear and organised system, we should be able to quickly stop/quarantine arrivals from other countries when/if a dangerous variant emerges. Granted, the current regime seem incapable of putting this in place, but hopefully we'll have more competent leadership soon.

The main risk in the uk is internal now. We really don't want another winter disaster, both economically and medically because we had to open everything up in 25th June instead of a few weeks later.

[RoyMac5]

27 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I'm saying there will be millions of unvaccinated adults still by end of June. All adults are supposed have had 1 vaccinated by the end of July.

We're giving the virus a month to spread through all those unvaccinated adults at the time when there is a new variant in the uk that spread rapidly through India.

We are giving the virus one last chance to mutate into something that could evade our vaccines.

You have no idea how many adults have already had exposure to the virus. There have been stats showing the Indian variant doesn't transmit more quickly. The virus spread rapidly through India for a variety of reasons.

The virus will have plenty of chances to mutate I'm sure.

What happened to all the horrors that were to befall us when schools went back, when we partially opened up again? The original plan was to support the NHS not to keep the population locked up.