Starship and a Human city on Mars

[Boycie]

14 hours ago, Beetroot said:

Who owns Mars? 

Our new owner is rumoured interested.  

[Carl Sagan]

18 hours ago, sage said:

What a waste of money and effort. We should purely be concentrating this planet sustainable to live on. You know that place with oxygen and temperature we can survive with.  

 

18 hours ago, cstand said:

Current US debt is 27 Trillion think it’s more important to look after Mother Earth before the money runs out.

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/americas-debt-27-trillion-and-counting/

Thanks @TigerTeddfor your rebuttals to these, but they are representative of comments that will likely keep surfacing throughout what I hope will be an ongoing thread, so I'll add my two-penneth too.

There's a movement called Effective Altruism (or EA), whose aim is how to do the most good with what you have. They have three core priorities which are:

1. relieving extreme global poverty
2. fighting for nonhuman animal rights
3. working to prevent existential risk

but it's number 3 that is their highest priority. If Humans become extinct, then we can no longer do any good, Conversely, the more Humans there are, the more potential good we are able to do in the Universe. Earlier this year I helped publish a book called The Precipice by Toby Ord, one of the founders of EA, and Toby's dedication reads:

"To the hundred billion people before us, who fashioned our civilisation; to the seven billion now alive, whose actions may determine its fate; to the trillions to come, whose existence lies in the balance."

The thing is, future people do not have a voice to ask for our help or plead their case. They are wholly reliant on us to create a future in which they can exist and flourish. The plan for a self-sustaining settlement on Mars is massive to help increase the potential future good that can be done in the Universe for two reasons.

One, which is Elon Musk's argument, is that it's like creating a backup in case your computer goes wrong. If everything goes to hell here on Earth, then Humanity can still go on and eventually spread to the stars, doing good in the process. The other is that it accelerates Humanity's expansion into space and becoming a multiplanetary species, which means we will be on course to spread out across the Universe more quickly, allowing trillions more future Humans to be born and do good. Another influential figure in the EA movement whose books I publish is Nick Bostrom, and he wrote about this in a paper entitled "Astronomical Waste: the Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development". Bostrom writes:

"With very advanced technology, a very large population of people living happy lives could be sustained in the accessible region of the universe. For every year that development of such technologies and colonization of the universe is delayed, there is therefore an opportunity cost: a potential good, lives worth living, is not being realized."

For me these are compelling arguments from two of the most prominent moral philosophers in the world today.  They resonate especially because I'm a mathematical physicist and often try to think in higher dimensions, meaning I'll often think about the Universe as a continuous present rather than past, present and future. The future isn't some nebulous thing that's going to happen. In a very real sense it coexists with us at the moment. It's just as real as the present we're living in. And I want that future to be the best it possibly can be for Humanity and for the Universe. And despite the Universe existing for nearly 14 billion years the only evidence of an advanced technological civilization existing anywhere within it, is here on Earth. So if the Universe is to realize its potential for future good, it could well be down to us to make that happen.

From Boca Chica to Mars is the next step on that road, but an incredibly important one.

 

[Normanton Lad]

2 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

 

Thanks @TigerTeddfor your rebuttals to these, but they are representative of comments that will likely keep surfacing throughout what I hope will be an ongoing thread, so I'll add my two-penneth too.

There's a movement called Effective Altruism (or EA), whose aim is how to do the most good with what you have. They have three core priorities which are:

1. relieving extreme global poverty
2. fighting for nonhuman animal rights
3. working to prevent existential risk

but it's number 3 that is their highest priority. If Humans become extinct, then we can no longer do any good, Conversely, the more Humans there are, the more potential good we are able to do in the Universe. Earlier this year I helped publish a book called The Precipice by Toby Ord, one of the founders of EA, and Toby's dedication reads:

 

 

The problem with Effective Altruism is unexpected consequences. The three core priorities seem contradictory to me. For example, money has poured into India and Pakistan to reduce poverty but the extra wealth has also been spent on weapons which increase the existential risk. Also when you reduce poverty you increase meat eating which does nothing for animal rights. I think the best policy is to keep your own house in order and to stop interfering in the lives of others. We don't know what is best for other people. I am not saying we should be selfish. It is just that by trying to help others we sometimes cause more problems than if we had done nothing.

[TigerTedd]

My fact for the day, which is apt considering all the big numbers involved in space travel:

1 million seconds = about 11 days. 
1 billion seconds = about 35 years. 

we tend think of a billion as being the next number up from a million. But this demonstrates just how massive a billion really is. The thought of billionaires existing in the world makes me sick to be honest. The thought of trillions of dollars of debt is crazy. But money is just a made uk thing anyway, it’s all just 1s and 0s, and you can always take a few zeros off if it gets out of hand. The size of space, and the age of the universe, however, will always be massive. Really, really, ridiculously massive. 

[Carl Sagan]

6 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

My fact for the day, which is apt considering all the big numbers involved in space travel:

1 million seconds = about 11 days. 
1 billion seconds = about 35 years. 

we tend think of a billion as being the next number up from a million. But this demonstrates just how massive a billion really is. The thought of billionaires existing in the world makes me sick to be honest. The thought of trillions of dollars of debt is crazy. But money is just a made uk thing anyway, it’s all just 1s and 0s, and you can always take a few zeros off if it gets out of hand. The size of space, and the age of the universe, however, will always be massive. Really, really, ridiculously massive. 

This is so important, not just for space travel but also life on Earth. People struggle so much to grasp the meaning of numbers as they become large. Unless things are put in context, people can easily draw wrong conclusions.

We know from Douglas Adams that space is big, but to try to convey some of the relative distances, just here in our inner solar system, here's a great animation about the speed of light to different places. When we have a settlement on Mars, there will be no real-time communication with Earth. The Human Martians will be cut off and taking all their own decisions, making their own laws.

 

[TigerTedd]

6 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

This is so important, not just for space travel but also life on Earth. People struggle so much to grasp the meaning of numbers as they become large. Unless things are put in context, people can easily draw wrong conclusions.

We know from Douglas Adams that space is big, but to try to convey some of the relative distances, just here in our inner solar system, here's a great animation about the speed of light to different places. When we have a settlement on Mars, there will be no real-time communication with Earth. The Human Martians will be cut off and taking all their own decisions, making their own laws.

 

Unless we develop quantum communication. 

[Stive Pesley]

I certainly hope I live long enough to witness the experiment. With a window of 26 months between journeys, you have to wonder how many people on trip 2 will have changed their minds depending on what happens to the people on trip 1. For example if 50% of them are already dead after 2 years, or 75% of them want to come back!

And on the 1/3 gravity thing - is the intention that they just live at that gravity, or is there some technology that can normalise gravity to earth standard inside whatever building they live in?

[Carl Sagan]

For those who want to see the rudimentary Starship on the test stand, this is SN8 being readied for its 15km flight. It's the first of the prototypes to have the nosecone and flaps fitted. Above it we see the Moon, where as I said some adapted Starships may go, but above that we see Mars, the real target.

Starship itself stands 50m tall (9m diameter) with Super Heavy an additional 70m, so when they're mated together for flights into Earth orbit, it will be the tallest rocket ever built, but more importantly will have much bigger carrying capacity than anything that's gone before.

[Wolfie]

44 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

For those who want to see the rudimentary Starship on the test stand, this is SN8 being readied for its 15km flight. It's the first of the prototypes to have the nosecone and flaps fitted. Above it we see the Moon, where as I said some adapted Starships may go, but above that we see Mars, the real target.

Starship itself stands 50m tall (9m diameter) with Super Heavy an additional 70m, so when they're mated together for flights into Earth orbit, it will be the tallest rocket ever built, but more importantly will have much bigger carrying capacity than anything that's gone before.

Why does that ship remind me of....

 

 

[TimRam]

On 14/11/2020 at 22:30, Beetroot said:

Who owns Mars? 

Cadburys? Think they also own the Milky Way.

Edited November 16, 2020 by TimRam

[Carl Sagan]

Here's one of the live feeds from the site, which runs 24/7. The tanks are for the different cryogenic propellants. There's a small stainless steel object nearby that looks a little like a water tower, but in fact is StarHopper, the first vehicle to ever fly using one of the Raptor engines that have been developed for Starship and Super Heavy. Again, it only flew to 150m as a test.

 

[cstand]

On 16/11/2020 at 07:46, TigerTedd said:

Unless we develop quantum communication. 

Ye cannot change the laws of physics, laws of physics, laws of physics;
ye cannot change the laws of physics, laws of physics. Ted.

 

Star Trekkin' across the universe.

Edited November 18, 2020 by cstand

[TigerTedd]

3 hours ago, cstand said:

Ye cannot change the laws of physics, laws of physics, laws of physics;
ye cannot change the laws of physics, laws of physics. Ted.

 

Star Trekkin' across the universe.

Quantum communication isn’t against the laws of physics. Manipulate an electron on this side of the universe and through quantum entanglement it will manipulate an electron on the other side of the universe instantly. Digital communication is all down to ones and zeros, so you can use quantum entanglement to create the ones and zeros and communicate instantly across any distance. In theory. 

[Carl Sagan]

There are now 8 Starships in different stages of development at the Boca Chica site, SN8 (completed on one of the launchpads) through to SN15. And also Super Heavy 1.

Here's a lovely 13 minute video showing different activity on the site yesterday, and how much is being done:

It's also a historical document to let us look back and see how Boca Chica used to look, once we're used to it having become a gigantic spaceport in a few years' time! 

[Carl Sagan]

We have a new (provisional) date for the 15km test flight of Starship SN8! Powered by 3 Raptor engines, it will be the first attempt at a "proper" flight, above just 150 metres (the first 3 tests). The request for road closures around the site gives 30th November as the hoped-for day, with 1st and 2nd December as backups. 

https://www.cameroncounty.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/PUBLIC-NOTICE-OF-CAMERON-COUNTY-ORDER-TO-TEMP.-BEACH-CLOSURE-AND-HWY.11.30.20.pdf

For those who think of commercial airliners flying at around "40,000 feet", 15km is nearly 50,000 feet.

Hoping the prototype can get there, it then "bellyflops", falling back towards the landing site, maximizing its air resistance to slow it down before reorientating and relighting its engines at the last moment to land vertically. 

If it happens it will be spectacular. There's a strong chance of a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly or RUD (aka explosion) and that will be spectacular too. Well worth a watch! 

[Carl Sagan]

At the moment it looks as if what we call a static fire will be happening today. It's where they fire up the engines to test them, before a rocket flight and is being live streamed here: 

Last time they tried this it went wrong, leading to some molten stuff pouring out onto the launchpad, meaning they've done some design fixes and replaced one of the engines. 

This is very rapid development and prototyping. The philosophy is, if you're not failing at times you're not innovating quickly enough. Should the SN8 rocket blow up on the pad (very possible!), SN9 is now completed and a little better, so would simply be rolled out to take its place. Amazing! 

[Carl Sagan]

It was a very short static fire, but everything went well. According to Elon, we remain on course for next week's historic test flight. 

He gives it a one in three chance of succeeding fully, but whatever happens we'll learn something. 

[Stive Pesley]

An interesting take from Werner Herzog this colonising Mars - that  "We should not be like the locusts, coming, grazing empty our planet, okay, and now where do we go next?"

[ramit]

7 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

An interesting take from Werner Herzog this colonising Mars - that  "We should not be like the locusts, coming, grazing empty our planet, okay, and now where do we go next?"

And we take for granted that Mars and other planets and moons in our solar system are ours for the taking

[Carl Sagan]

On 26/11/2020 at 14:36, SchtivePesley said:

An interesting take from Werner Herzog this colonising Mars - that  "We should not be like the locusts, coming, grazing empty our planet, okay, and now where do we go next?"

 

23 hours ago, ramit said:

And we take for granted that Mars and other planets and moons in our solar system are ours for the taking

Few humans have done more for the planet than Musk. For decades we were facing Carmageddon with the motor industry not giving a stuff. Elon single-handedly has transitioned the world towards electric cars and sustainable transport, with a heavy focus on solar power too. Reluctantly the traditional car companies are being dragged kicking and screaming in Tesla's wake, but they're all a decade behind now so effectively are already dead. 

You can look after your own planet and want to improve it at the same time as wanting to colonize others. Call me crazy, but I'm speciesist. I want Humanity to survive. We might be the only complex intelligence in the Universe, and if we go that could be the end of intelligence everywhere. Of course the other planets of the solar system should be ours to do with as we see fit, to help protect intelligence in the Universe and let it flourish. 

Meanwhile, Starship is to begin twice monthly test flights from next week, having established a 90 square mile safety zone around Boca Chica, mainly in the ocean, where spaceships will be blown up if they get out of control. 

https://www.krgv.com/news/spacex-planned-9-mile-launch-self-destruct-zone-over-gulf