GboroRam Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, TexasRam said: On what grounds? Cases are linked to hospitalisations. Hospitalisations is linked to deaths. Deaths are rising again. There is a lag between cases and deaths, so wait and see what happens in a few weeks. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 minute ago, GboroRam said: Cases are linked to hospitalisations. Hospitalisations is linked to deaths. Deaths are rising again. There is a lag between cases and deaths, so wait and see what happens in a few weeks. The problem I have with that argument is I keep hearing it, wait for a few weeks and we’ll see. That was said 4 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago, 2 weeks ago, last week, nothing is really changing (loads of cases with no dramatic impact and, I won’t go on about of or with again which is another argument to be had, then we have average age of deaths etc etc) and at the end of they day we’re crippling ourselves over it. Anyway always better to post the full picture not just meaningless case numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 764 admitted to hospital today in England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Hospital admissions for confirmed Covid-19 cases, England only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 hours ago, GboroRam said: Nearly 19k positive tests today. Consistently rising still. Dunno if its that consistent. When you look at the specimen date figures it doesn't quite look so large growth. The figures that are worrying are the hospital admissions and deaths... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, alexxxxx said: Dunno if its that consistent. When you look at the specimen date figures it doesn't quite look so large growth. The figures that are worrying are the hospital admissions and deaths... Consistently rising, not rising consistently. I mean the trend is upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 41 minutes ago, TexasRam said: The problem I have with that argument is I keep hearing it, wait for a few weeks and we’ll see. That was said 4 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago, 2 weeks ago, last week, nothing is really changing (loads of cases with no dramatic impact and, I won’t go on about of or with again which is another argument to be had, then we have average age of deaths etc etc) and at the end of they day we’re crippling ourselves over it. Anyway always better to post the full picture not just meaningless case numbers. The other knock on effect of increased cases and hospitalisations is this; https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/15/liverpool-covid-admissions-will-devastate-other-hospital-care “If we don’t get control of [the] spread of the virus in the community and admissions continue at the current rate, our hospitals will not be able to cope. This will have a devastating effect on planned care, such as operations.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, jimmyp said: The other knock on effect of increased cases and hospitalisations is this; https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/15/liverpool-covid-admissions-will-devastate-other-hospital-care “If we don’t get control of [the] spread of the virus in the community and admissions continue at the current rate, our hospitals will not be able to cope. This will have a devastating effect on planned care, such as operations.” Heard that last time, the hospitals didn’t get in a position were they couldn’t cope. The nightingale hospitals were not even used. However we did stop planned care which is terrible and maybe in hindsight we shouldn’t of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, TexasRam said: Heard that last time, the hospitals didn’t get in a position were they couldn’t cope. The nightingale hospitals were not even used. However we did stop planned care which is terrible and maybe in hindsight we shouldn’t of. I’d say stopping non critical care is a sign of not being able to cope. It gets to a point in which you have no choice but to stop non critical care even with the benefit of hindsight we now have. We only have so many doctors and nurses, even then we only have so many who have the relevant training in respiratory fields. Then you add PPE supply issues, sure we are ok now but we won’t be if hospitalisations continue the way they are, we have finite supplies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, TexasRam said: The problem I have with that argument is I keep hearing it, wait for a few weeks and we’ll see. That was said 4 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago, 2 weeks ago, last week, nothing is really changing (loads of cases with no dramatic impact and, I won’t go on about of or with again which is another argument to be had, then we have average age of deaths etc etc) and at the end of they day we’re crippling ourselves over it. Anyway always better to post the full picture not just meaningless case numbers. What do you mean 'nothing is really changing', the number of deaths is increasing very significantly. This is the data since the start of August, with the orange line being the average of the past 7 days: Then the log plot: The characteristic upward trend is very visible, we're in exponential growth of deaths now, as predicted from the rise of cases last month. There's no arguing with it, it is very much happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Albert said: The characteristic upward trend is very visible From "hardly any" way up to "a few"... really worth trashing the economy for a generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, Carnero said: From "hardly any" way up to "a few"... really worth trashing the economy for a generation. You know all this fuss people have been making about the millions of people that have missed out on NHS appointments, that’s real. When people say the NHS will struggle, that’s real. If the NHS starts to really struggle we will have no choice but to enter a full on hardcore lockdown, this will really trash the economy and lead to a really big death total of Covid and non Covid patients. So anything, literally anything we can do to avoid that scenario is worth trying. I’m not wanting to be a doom merchant, we need to realise that our actions have consequences and we all really need to start thinking about altering our actions, a bit like the swedes have done without being forced. Maybe then us doom merchants could quit our jibber jabber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 46 minutes ago, Carnero said: From "hardly any" way up to "a few"... really worth trashing the economy for a generation. Economy is being trashed by the virus and it's impacts. It would be trashed faster, and worse, by just 'letting it rip'. The best way to minimise damage, as previously discussed and as demonstrated by countries actually succeeding in restarting their economies, is to control the virus. As to calling it 'a few' is very misleading, that is a lot of deaths per day already, and by the end of the month given the current trend, we're looking at 350+ deaths per day. Even with a slowing of cases this is likely to maintain this rate, as deaths have a 2 week lag. Also, we're already above pneumonia deaths again, which is a very bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Carnero said: From "hardly any" way up to "a few"... really worth trashing the economy for a generation. How many deaths are acceptable to you'? 100 a day obviously is - what about 200? 300? 500? 1000? Put a number on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Hospital admissions continue to climb: This is the log form of the plot, with a line to illustrate that there does appear to be a continuing linear trend, which in turn implies that this is indeed continuing to show exponential growth. This, along with the rising trend in cases and deaths suggests that this is not limited to low risk groups, as feared. Let's hope for better news in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 8 hours ago, Eddie said: How many deaths are acceptable to you'? 100 a day obviously is - what about 200? 300? 500? 1000? Put a number on it. Ah the trump card has been played, how many deaths are acceptable ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 22 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Ah the trump card has been played, how many deaths are acceptable ? That's presumably inadvertent, but hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 8 hours ago, Eddie said: How many deaths are acceptable to you'? 100 a day obviously is - what about 200? 300? 500? 1000? Put a number on it. 500,000-600,000 a year in total all cause deaths, as is usual in the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Carnero said: 500,000-600,000 a year in total all cause deaths, as is usual in the UK. So, does the UK being significantly about expected deaths for the year mean that you think these numbers are problematic then? Or are you suggesting that Covid has only been significant if it has doubled the yearly deaths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Albert said: So, does the UK being significantly about expected deaths for the year mean that you think these numbers are problematic then? Or are you suggesting that Covid has only been significant if it has doubled the yearly deaths? It may have led to some earlier deaths this year but over time this will likely even out. We should wait and see if we're lower than expected deaths over the next few years before making any proper conclusions. Or we could keep looking at tiny snapshots of data that fit with our agenda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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