Coronavirus

[Tyler Durden]

17 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I've downloaded it and used it a few times already. 

What does it actually do. I'm not taking the Michael I've had a text through the other day about downloading it. Have been working all the way through the pandemic so you get to think you're fireproof rightly or wrongly. 

[angieram]

Strange that the hospital admission stats haven't been posted today. I wonder why? 

[Andicis]

This is interesting. If this is true, it raises the point of how far away from herd immunity we actually are.

[Tyler Durden]

I was in my local Asda in West Bridgford the other day and happened to see a couple blithley doing their shopping neither of whom were wearing any form of face mask. Apparently Asda have now said they have a zero tolerance level on anyone not wearing face masks in their stores.

Well I guarantee that the couple were left to their own devices as I saw them about 15 minutes later still without face masks on. It might have something to do with the fact that the guy was 6 feet 4 and built like a brick outhouse. But that's just me being cynical. 

[ariotofmyown]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

I was in my local Asda in West Bridgford the other day and happened to see a couple blithley doing their shopping neither of whom were wearing any form of face mask. Apparently Asda have now said they have a zero tolerance level on anyone not wearing face masks in their stores.

Well I guarantee that the couple were left to their own devices as I saw them about 15 minutes later still without face masks on. It might have something to do with the fact that the guy was 6 feet 4 and built like a brick outhouse. But that's just me being cynical. 

Look, I left it at home ok? And as I had loads of mates coming round, I had to get the beers in. In no worse than a bad cold anyway according to Twitter.

[Ken Tram]

I do think that careless people (like the Asda duo) are more likely to be spreaders - and the Indian article suggests super spreaders ... but I get the impression that the App automatically puts people into a fortnight if quarantine if they have been close to a person who has it - but I think, also (?) if the other person has been tested, but came out negative?

And I also have a sense that it is a bit intrusive too! 

But, I'm hoping that someone understands it better, and can explain the reasons for and against using the App.

[ariotofmyown]

7 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

I do think that careless people (like the Asda duo) are more likely to be spreaders - and the Indian article suggests super spreaders ... but I get the impression that the App automatically puts people into a fortnight if quarantine if they have been close to a person who has it - but I think, also (?) if the other person has been tested, but came out negative?

And I also have a sense that it is a bit intrusive too! 

But, I'm hoping that someone understands it better, and can explain the reasons for and against using the App.

Do you get an alert if you have been within 2 metres of an infected person who lives on the other side of your wall?

[Ken Tram]

I searched for some articles about "test and trace debate" from the past week, and this Guardian article was one of the most recent.

The final sentence is the most concerning, "If someone then tests positive for Covid-19, they can share the result anonymously with their close contacts, who will each receive an alert and will have to isolate for 14 days."

It doesn't matter whether a mask was worn or not, or any other protections that were taken. If someone was close for 15 minutes, then they have to quarantine for 14 days.

What is missing is information about what impact this App could have on the dial of the virus, and why we should use it. Is the mandatory 14 day sensible? Why not a 3 day quarantine to do a test, especially if someone hadn't had symptoms.

Are self employed people, or those on zero hour contracts going to rush to use this App? And, I read that at least 50% of people need to use the App for it to make a difference.

Being able to alert people that I've had a positive test is one thing, but making anyone I've been in contact with go into quarantine for a fortnight seems like over kill, when, at the moment, lockdown rules don't seem that harsh. The 14 days seems disproportionate.

I don't want to put people off downloading the App! It would be good to hear why it is a good idea to use it. But, if all it does is alert my friends, family, and colleagues, surely I can do that anyway? The App seems to remove the ability to make informed decisions. 

[Ken Tram]

18 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Do you get an alert if you have been within 2 metres of an infected person who lives on the other side of your wall?

Or ... a plastic screen ... or wearing a high quality mask ... or outdoors facing away from the wind ...

[rammieib]

@Eddie Genuine question -  what do you think the country needs to look like for you to return to 'normal'?

[rammieib]

37 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

I searched for some articles about "test and trace debate" from the past week, and this Guardian article was one of the most recent.

The final sentence is the most concerning, "If someone then tests positive for Covid-19, they can share the result anonymously with their close contacts, who will each receive an alert and will have to isolate for 14 days."

It doesn't matter whether a mask was worn or not, or any other protections that were taken. If someone was close for 15 minutes, then they have to quarantine for 14 days.

What is missing is information about what impact this App could have on the dial of the virus, and why we should use it. Is the mandatory 14 day sensible? Why not a 3 day quarantine to do a test, especially if someone hadn't had symptoms.

Are self employed people, or those on zero hour contracts going to rush to use this App? And, I read that at least 50% of people need to use the App for it to make a difference.

Being able to alert people that I've had a positive test is one thing, but making anyone I've been in contact with go into quarantine for a fortnight seems like over kill, when, at the moment, lockdown rules don't seem that harsh. The 14 days seems disproportionate.

I don't want to put people off downloading the App! It would be good to hear why it is a good idea to use it. But, if all it does is alert my friends, family, and colleagues, surely I can do that anyway? The App seems to remove the ability to make informed decisions. 

I'm also curious, if the App tells me, does the App inform the local authorities as well?

[Albert]

43 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

I searched for some articles about "test and trace debate" from the past week, and this Guardian article was one of the most recent.

The final sentence is the most concerning, "If someone then tests positive for Covid-19, they can share the result anonymously with their close contacts, who will each receive an alert and will have to isolate for 14 days."

It doesn't matter whether a mask was worn or not, or any other protections that were taken. If someone was close for 15 minutes, then they have to quarantine for 14 days.

What is missing is information about what impact this App could have on the dial of the virus, and why we should use it. Is the mandatory 14 day sensible? Why not a 3 day quarantine to do a test, especially if someone hadn't had symptoms.

Are self employed people, or those on zero hour contracts going to rush to use this App? And, I read that at least 50% of people need to use the App for it to make a difference.

Being able to alert people that I've had a positive test is one thing, but making anyone I've been in contact with go into quarantine for a fortnight seems like over kill, when, at the moment, lockdown rules don't seem that harsh. The 14 days seems disproportionate.

I don't want to put people off downloading the App! It would be good to hear why it is a good idea to use it. But, if all it does is alert my friends, family, and colleagues, surely I can do that anyway? The App seems to remove the ability to make informed decisions. 

14 days is the gold standard for this, as it can take this long for symptoms to appear. 3 days isn't enough to assure that someone isn't actually positive, but still in the incubation period. 

In Australia, one of the key ways that they got on top of the disease was this kind of quarantining. The rules are essentially that you get tested on days 2 and 12, and have 14 days in isolation. It's worked wonders, and a lot of people who tested negative on day 2 did indeed test positive on day 12. The biggest risk of a false negative is doing it too soon after infection. 

That said, Australia tried one of these apps, and it was pretty pointless. Too much underdeveloped with it, particularly on apple products, and it failed to make any impact. It was good ol' fashion ringing people up that did the most good. 

[Eddie]

2 hours ago, ramit said:

If your yoghurt has developed an opinion, i wouldn't eat it if i were you

My yoghurt gave up its life today so that 8 naan breads could live (4 Peshwari, 4 Keema).

[Eddie]

7 hours ago, rammieib said:

@Eddie Genuine question -  what do you think the country needs to look like for you to return to 'normal'?

I'm not sure it ever will in my lifetime - or rather, a new 'normal' will become the norm. A vaccine would help, of course.

I am always going to be wary of people, but then again, I'm an obnoxious old scrote who people avoid at the best of times anyway so that's not really an issue - I am anything but gregarious at the best of times (in current times I would most definitely have been diagnosed as autistic, but back in the 50's I was just 'funny' or 'odd'). The Memsahib and I love going on long walks and spending the day watching Derbyshire CCC - activities that don't tend to involve many other people anyway (except when @sage has brought some interesting beers with him and he fancies tolerating my 'company') - but we do like to travel a lot on buses, and that seems to be a no-no at the moment.

I work part-time, but that's 100% from home (the company has no premises anyway), so nothing is going to change for me there - we are totally internet-based, and sales are at record highs at the moment and will continue as such for the foreseeable future.

[Eddie]

2 hours ago, GboroRam said:

I've downloaded it and used it a few times already. 

testing testing 1 2 3

Just wondering why my previous post required approval by a moderator. Seeing as this one has slipped through ok, I assume it's because I used the 'B' word.

[Albert]

15 hours ago, Uptherams said:

Today's numbers are in:

I'd put it up with a 4th order polynomial, just to match, and include the data back to the start of August (as that's what the NHS gives):

For an actual look at what's going on, however, we need a log plot:

The orange points are from 29 August 2020 to now, and I have included a trendline for consideration for this period. A straight line means exponential growth, and the expectation with controls in place is that it should trend below that line. Whether this represents the controls working or not yet, we'll have to wait and see, but it does indeed seem to be the case that the cases are indeed still rising. 

[Ken Tram]

1 hour ago, Albert said:

In Australia, one of the key ways that they got on top of the disease was this kind of quarantining. The rules are essentially that you get tested on days 2 and 12, and have 14 days in isolation. It's worked wonders, and a lot of people who tested negative on day 2 did indeed test positive on day 12. The biggest risk of a false negative is doing it too soon after infection. 

That said, Australia tried one of these apps, and it was pretty pointless. Too much underdeveloped with it, particularly on apple products, and it failed to make any impact. It was good ol' fashion ringing people up that did the most good. 

Clearly, quarantining works, if it is explained why it is necessary - because it needs people to self-police it, and phone friends and family, as you describe.

In didn't understand the 12 day thing. I had a test a few months ago, and I wasn't sent a second test 9 days later.

The App may help identify if I've been in close contact with a stranger on the bus, or at a restaurant, etc - 

Idon't think many more people will download it unless they know it is anonymous, or they understand how it will help. And if people don't download it, then I cannot see it making much difference. (For example, if someone has a precarious income, but always wears high grade masks, and even gloves, and only meets people outdoors - if they get the App, they risk losing two weeks pay if told to self isolate and the chance of a £10,000 fine - regardless of the risk of them having the virus.

So, if the App is optional, many won't download it.

[Ken Tram]

2 hours ago, rammieib said:

I'm also curious, if the App tells me, does the App inform the local authorities as well?

This article from Wired explains a bit about the anonymity - and gives more information than the NHS site - but it doesn't answer your question about whether users can be identified if they have been notified to self isolate.

I am thinking of asking the author of the article!

[Albert]

20 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

Clearly, quarantining works, if it is explained why it is necessary - because it needs people to self-police it, and phone friends and family, as you describe.

In didn't understand the 12 day thing. I had a test a few months ago, and I wasn't sent a second test 9 days later.

The App may help identify if I've been in close contact with a stranger on the bus, or at a restaurant, etc - 

Idon't think many more people will download it unless they know it is anonymous, or they understand how it will help. And if people don't download it, then I cannot see it making much difference. (For example, if someone has a precarious income, but always wears high grade masks, and even gloves, and only meets people outdoors - if they get the App, they risk losing two weeks pay if told to self isolate and the chance of a £10,000 fine - regardless of the risk of them having the virus.

So, if the App is optional, many won't download it.

In Australia, they actually have teams ringing close contacts, etc, rather than just letting people self police it. 

The same with quarantine, confirmed cases are put in 'medihotels', ie they're chucked in a hotel until they're better, or decline, in which case they get put in hospital. One of the successes in Australia is not letting people self-police it, as it clearly doesn't work. 

The reason you wouldn't have been sent for a second test is the same reason the UK is in this situation, the government has no idea what they're doing, and are not following suggested protocols. 

As to the app, advertised well it should take off. Australia saw around 40% of the population download the app, the issue is that it was hot garbage, and the government rolled it out without setting up the infrastructure to use it, spunking that early advantage. 

[Ken Tram]

9 minutes ago, Albert said:

In Australia, they actually have teams ringing close contacts, etc, rather than just letting people self police it. 

The same with quarantine, confirmed cases are put in 'medihotels', ie they're chucked in a hotel until they're better, or decline, in which case they get put in hospital. One of the successes in Australia is not letting people self-police it, as it clearly doesn't work. 

OK. Perhaps I'm wrong about self policing, and that policing was an important factor.

Nevertheless, I think that the greater the level of understanding, the higher the compliance. Likewise, I guess, the more coherent and consistent the advice and rules, the more likely people are to comply.

The hotel thing makes good sense.

(I think I saw Australia Sky News on YouTube criticising an authoritarian approach being taken in one state - but not on any other channels - so it may have been biased!)