Coronavirus

[Uptherams]

15 minutes ago, maxjam said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-govt-bracing-for-four-million-unemployed-as-covid-crisis-accelerates-12086451

- 4m unemployed

- many on reduced hours

- good luck getting a job if you're aged between 16-24

You know what could really help right now too. Net immigration being in excess of 250,000 for this year and the next. 

[Albert]

 

12 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

It was BS, because they have no clue what to do they result to complete over dramatisation of the situation which leads our leaders  making stupid decisions. He should be sacked for presenting a model which had no scientific grounds based on the virus historic performance. Unbelievable people have brought it. You do know if  you follow his model the entire UK would be dead by Jan 2021 don’t you?  
 

Ps controls were put in place one week ago, I thought there was such a lag in these controls/data that we wouldn’t see a difference yet? That’s what most on here are posting, so contradictory. 

...I'm sure at this point you've got to be on the windup. The model, as presented, was never meant to be what was actually happening. 

Also, models can be locally accurate, without global accuracy, the fact that you're trying to extrapolate a model, that wasn't even meant to be a current prediction, to January, well beyond its usable limits, is baffling. 

Equally, to call for someone to be sacked because you're too incompetent to understand what an example forecast is, is quite frankly silly. 

[Gone]

3 minutes ago, Albert said:

 

...I'm sure at this point you've got to be on the windup. The model, as presented, was never meant to be what was actually happening. 

Also, models can be locally accurate, without global accuracy, the fact that you're trying to extrapolate a model, that wasn't even meant to be a current prediction, to January, well beyond its usable limits, is baffling. 

Equally, to call for someone to be sacked because you're too incompetent to understand what an example forecast is, is quite frankly silly. 

Yes he should be sacked, absolutely he should be. It’s was presented categorically saying, if we don’t do anything the cases will double by the time we reach October and onwards. That’s fact, that what was said, why forecast something to that magnitude and present it on national TV if it’s not usable. If the sales function in the organisation were I work presented a forward forecast with such bias of error, then they would be promoted to customer quite quickly.  

The governmental advisors should be presenting facts not fairytales and you defending this makes me think you’re a WUM.
 

Unfortunately for the UK our scientists think they are politicians and our politicians think they are scientists. 

[Gone]

27 minutes ago, maxjam said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-govt-bracing-for-four-million-unemployed-as-covid-crisis-accelerates-12086451

- 4m unemployed

- many on reduced hours

- good luck getting a job if you're aged between 16-24

It’s ok that doesn’t matter.......

[Albert]

2 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Yes he should be sacked, absolutely he should be. It’s was presented categorically saying, if we don’t do anything the cases will double by the time we reach October and onwards. That’s fact, that what was said, why forecast something to that magnitude and present it on national TV if it’s not usable. If the sales function in the organisation were I work presented a forward forecast with such bias of error, then they would be promoted to customer quite quickly.  

The governmental advisors should be presenting facts not fairytales and you defending this makes me think you’re a WUM.
 

Unfortunately for the UK our scientists think they are politicians and our politicians think they are scientists. 

Source that this is how it was initially presented? 

[Albert]

30 minutes ago, maxjam said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-govt-bracing-for-four-million-unemployed-as-covid-crisis-accelerates-12086451

- 4m unemployed

- many on reduced hours

- good luck getting a job if you're aged between 16-24

If only the UK government set its aim to be zero cases back when there was the chance, rather than doing half measures, allowing the crisis to cycle. 

[maxjam]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/01/nhs-covid-disruption-could-cause-tens-of-thousands-of-deaths-mps-warn

- 36000 cancer operations cancelled

- 1m mammograms missed due to screening being cancelled

- GP cancer referrals down 60%, CT scans down 75%

There is a strong argument that we will end up killing far more people than will die from covid ?

 

[Gone]

3 minutes ago, Albert said:

Source that this is how it was initially presented? 

I haven’t got the press conference but if you look in BBC I player from last tues or Wednesday  you’ll see it. Also check the newspapers from last week it’s was splashed across them all. 

[maxjam]

2 minutes ago, Albert said:

If only the UK government set its aim to be zero cases back when there was the chance, rather than doing half measures, allowing the crisis to cycle. 

Impossible to achieve unless you literally stop all movement both into and out of the country - including all business, tourism and illegal immigration etc.  Which incidentally is also why lockdowns don't work - you just delay the inevitable until a vaccine becomes available.  Sooner or later you'll get an outbreak and it will spread.

[Stagtime]

19 hours ago, TexasRam said:

Name more than one densely populated City where the numbers have been brought to zero for a sustained period.

 Brisbane, pop 2.5 million. Covid cases - 621. Active cases - 1. Total deaths - 3. Shops, pubs, restaurants, shopping malls operating normally with 1 person per 2m2 rules and the ability to go to the footy for a couple of months now. The reason, we locked down hard at the beginning and 99.9% of the population take this poo seriously.

[Gone]

3 minutes ago, Stagtime said:

 Brisbane, pop 2.5 million. Covid cases - 621. Active cases - 1. Total deaths - 3. Shops, pubs, restaurants, shopping malls operating normally with 1 person per 2m2 rules and the ability to go to the footy for a couple of months now. The reason, we locked down hard at the beginning and 99.9% of the population take this poo seriously.

Good to hear, hope it continues for you. I guess we also have to consider other variables, demographics, health, number of people in households etc etc. But looked like It worked for you guys 

[jimmyp]

16 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Yes he should be sacked, absolutely he should be. It’s was presented categorically saying, if we don’t do anything the cases will double by the time we reach October and onwards. That’s fact, that what was said, why forecast something to that magnitude and present it on national TV if it’s not usable. If the sales function in the organisation were I work presented a forward forecast with such bias of error, then they would be promoted to customer quite quickly.  

The governmental advisors should be presenting facts not fairytales and you defending this makes me think you’re a WUM.
 

Unfortunately for the UK our scientists think they are politicians and our politicians think they are scientists. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084

 

"If, and that's quite a big if, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days... if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.”

 

From very same article 

The government's most senior science and medical advisers are clearly concerned about the rise in cases that have been seen in recent weeks.

The warning about 50,000 cases a day by mid-October is stark. We don't know for sure how many cases there were at the peak in spring (as there was very limited testing in place) although some estimates put it at 100,000.

However, they were also at pains to point out it was not a prediction - for one thing the 'rule of six' which came in just a week ago has not had time to have an impact.

[Albert]

13 minutes ago, maxjam said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/01/nhs-covid-disruption-could-cause-tens-of-thousands-of-deaths-mps-warn

- 36000 cancer operations cancelled

- 1m mammograms missed due to screening being cancelled

- GP cancer referrals down 60%, CT scans down 75%

There is a strong argument that we will end up killing far more people than will die from covid ?

 

The argument could be attempted, but it would be hard to justify. The easiest way out of this all is, however, hard lockdowns with a view to forcing the numbers to zero, then strong contact tracing, testing, etc. This has been achieved elsewhere in the World, and we shouldn't assume that the UK is so incompetent that such is impossible. 

11 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

I haven’t got the press conference but if you look in BBC I player from last tues or Wednesday  you’ll see it. Also check the newspapers from last week it’s was splashed across them all. 

So... no, you don't have a source. The only sources I found never suggested it was an actual prediction, just an example of what would happen if it did indeed double at that rate without controls. 

9 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Impossible to achieve unless you literally stop all movement both into and out of the country - including all business, tourism and illegal immigration etc.  Which incidentally is also why lockdowns don't work - you just delay the inevitable until a vaccine becomes available.  Sooner or later you'll get an outbreak and it will spread.

So, why are there countries that have achieved it then?

Your argument is basically 'the UK is too incompetent for something like that'.  

4 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Good to hear, hope it continues for you. I guess we also have to consider other variables, demographics, health, number of people in households etc etc. But looked like It worked for you guys 

Also worked in Taiwan, a far more densely populated country, and Vietnam, which shares many land borders. 

[Gone]

1 minute ago, Albert said:

The only sources I found never suggested it was an actual prediction, just an example of what would happen if it did indeed double at that rate without controls

That’s a prediction, do you work in the media?

[Albert]

4 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084

 

"If, and that's quite a big if, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days... if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.”

 

From very same article 

The government's most senior science and medical advisers are clearly concerned about the rise in cases that have been seen in recent weeks.

The warning about 50,000 cases a day by mid-October is stark. We don't know for sure how many cases there were at the peak in spring (as there was very limited testing in place) although some estimates put it at 100,000.

However, they were also at pains to point out it was not a prediction - for one thing the 'rule of six' which came in just a week ago has not had time to have an impact.

Cheers. 

As noted before, it's just saying that if such doubling continued, that would be the result. It also notes the impact that controls can have. 

[Albert]

Just now, TexasRam said:

That’s a prediction, do you work in the media?

That's not a prediction. Maybe you should learn what words mean before you use them in future. 

Equally, as noted, the reason for the rate dropping overall is the various controls in place. 

[Stagtime]

5 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Good to hear, hope it continues for you. I guess we also have to consider other variables, demographics, health, number of people in households etc etc. But looked like It worked for you guys 

Mate we are lucky that the state gov has a very good contact tracing regime and strict border controls. Qld total cases are 1150 with 950 of those bought in from overseas. So most of those cases are found when overseas travellers are under a 2 week mandatory lockdown and as such aren’t allowed into the community until they have positive results. Still sucks a bit as we were supposed to be traveling to the UK this week but we will bid our time.

[Gone]

Just now, Albert said:

That's not a prediction. Maybe you should learn what words mean before you use them in future. 

Equally, as noted, the reason for the rate dropping overall is the various controls in place. 

It was a prediction that the UK has sold the new restrictions made decision on. I know I’m living it, we’ll leave it here. 

[Eddie]

12 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Impossible to achieve unless you literally stop all movement both into and out of the country - including all business, tourism and illegal immigration etc.  Which incidentally is also why lockdowns don't work - you just delay the inevitable until a vaccine becomes available.  Sooner or later you'll get an outbreak and it will spread.

But there is irrefutable evidence that the lockdown we had did work. We went from 4000 deaths a week at the start to double digits a week at the end. The lockdown served its purpose, which was purely and simply to prevent the NHS being completely overwhelmed. It bought time - unfortunately, that time has been utterly squandered for the most part because the message still hasn't got through to a large number of people that the easiest, best and cheapest way to reduce transmission of the disease is to reduce droplet transmission from person to person, and that if you have been unfortunate enough to come into close contact with somebody who has the disease, then it's better to know that information as quickly as possible so that you can take steps to break the chain.

 

[Albert]

2 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

It was a prediction that the UK has sold the new restrictions made decision on. I know I’m living it, we’ll leave it here. 

As shown, it was not a prediction. It was not something that they claimed would happen. The concern was for rising cases, hence further restrictions. Thankfully, the rule of 6 is indeed having an impact, and with the newer restrictions in place, hopefully the cases will continue to flatten, and begin to come down. 

I would recommend dropping this point, as it's already been dealt with, and it really looks like you're clinging desperately to it, despite it providing nothing for your argument.