Coronavirus

[Stive Pesley]

News stories leading today about how the testing facilities are being ramped down (and people having to travel silly distances to the nearest test centre). Even at the start of August I had to go to Burnaston as the nearest test centre to Derby city.

Is this a deliberate strategy to try and make the figures look less frightening (the opposite of the "more testing means more identified cases" argument)?

September should be interesting . The schools are back today (mine are anyway) - and most people have been away on some sort of holiday at home or abroad. So, in terms of cross-pollination of communities, it's been at it's peak in the last few weeks - and we're now sending our kids back into the playground petri dish - so whatever is out there, will be heading straight into our homes within  days

We need to watch what happens now. If cases remain flat and reasonably controlled as they have done since the start of July when things opened up again - then that's a really good sign and would indicate that the current plan is working. Because the alternative is that we've created a perfect storm for an autumn lockdown

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gritstone Ram]

19 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

News stories leading today about how the testing facilities are being ramped down (and people having to travel silly distances to the nearest test centre). Even at the start of August I had to go to Burnaston as the nearest test centre to Derby city.

Is this a deliberate strategy to try and make the figures look less frightening (the opposite of the "more testing means more identified cases" argument)?

September should be interesting . The schools are back today (mine are anyway) - and most people have been away on some sort of holiday at home or abroad. So, in terms of cross-pollination of communities, it's been at it's peak in the last few weeks - and we're now sending our kids back into the playground petri dish - so whatever is out there, will be heading straight into our homes within  days

We need to watch what happens now. If cases remain flat and reasonably controlled as they have done since the start of July when things opened up again - then that's a really good sign and would indicate that the current plan is working. Because the alternative is that we've created a perfect storm for an autumn lockdown

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I had a similar experience with getting tested. I was feeling ill and went through the online process to book myself in for a test. It came back my nearest test center was Manchester Airport?? I re did it the following morning and got in at Chesterfield which is the nearest on for me. However I’m not sure about the ramping down you can order a test through the post still. Also from what I understand is the low infection areas are ramped down but high areas are ramped up. Also it wouldn’t make sense not to identify infections if you really want to prevent a second wave. Surely that is more important.

[ariotofmyown]

Some concerning stuff in this article. Hopefully this was just some unfortunate one-offs, but worrying if it's representative of a general trend. Surely if a person with a positive case has just been on a flight, the tracers contact the airline immediately to find out who else was on the flight. Even more urgently if you can see multiple people on the same flight have tested positive?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/race-to-track-200-people-on-flight-after-officials-fail-to-tell-airline-of-covid-cases

[G STAR RAM]

1 hour ago, SchtivePesley said:

So, in terms of cross-pollination of communities, it's been at it's peak in the last few weeks - and we're now sending our kids back into the playground petri dish - so whatever is out there, will be heading straight into our homes within  days

I thought latest research has shown that there is very little evidence of children spreading the virus to adults?

[AndyinLiverpool]

Our kids went back to school today. Younger one (10) told to take their mask off at the gate. No explanation from the school. So much for their message of respect.

Will have to see later what their experience was of their first day then take it from there.

[Stive Pesley]

2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

I thought latest research has shown that there is very little evidence of children spreading the virus to adults?

Well I know you don't believe in experts ?

I'm just saying - the proof will be in the pudding. I think we're all hoping the research is right. We're doing a very real experiment now

[Tamworthram]

6 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

News stories leading today about how the testing facilities are being ramped down (and people having to travel silly distances to the nearest test centre). Even at the start of August I had to go to Burnaston as the nearest test centre to Derby city.

Is this a deliberate strategy to try and make the figures look less frightening (the opposite of the "more testing means more identified cases" argument)?

September should be interesting . The schools are back today (mine are anyway) - and most people have been away on some sort of holiday at home or abroad. So, in terms of cross-pollination of communities, it's been at it's peak in the last few weeks - and we're now sending our kids back into the playground petri dish - so whatever is out there, will be heading straight into our homes within  days

We need to watch what happens now. If cases remain flat and reasonably controlled as they have done since the start of July when things opened up again - then that's a really good sign and would indicate that the current plan is working. Because the alternative is that we've created a perfect storm for an autumn lockdown

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't you just love a conspiracy theory?

I heard it was simply because the supply couldn't cope with demand in certain areas. That's obviously not good but I don't think there is anything more sinister to it than that.

[Stive Pesley]

28 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Don't you just love a conspiracy theory?

I heard it was simply because the supply couldn't cope with demand in certain areas. That's obviously not good but I don't think there is anything more sinister to it than that.

It was an open-ended question. I don't actually think it's a conspiracy to massage the numbers. The most obvious explanation based on everything else we've seen  is pure incompetence in planning

[rammieib]

13 hours ago, alexxxxx said:

Simply the current infection rate. The infection rate was massive down here to start with, much higher than elsewhere. 

I don't think it will last though. Huge increase in test positives this week (1500 a day versus 1100 day for the previous 7 days and 1000 the week before) without any increase in testing. I fear we are sleepwalking into a France or Spain situation right now. 

You assume cases were not already here. What we see now is KNOWN cases. Sorry but I think millions have had this virus in the UK alone. It just attacked the weak and vulnerable early.

[rammieib]

11 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

News stories leading today about how the testing facilities are being ramped down (and people having to travel silly distances to the nearest test centre). Even at the start of August I had to go to Burnaston as the nearest test centre to Derby city.

Is this a deliberate strategy to try and make the figures look less frightening (the opposite of the "more testing means more identified cases" argument)?

September should be interesting . The schools are back today (mine are anyway) - and most people have been away on some sort of holiday at home or abroad. So, in terms of cross-pollination of communities, it's been at it's peak in the last few weeks - and we're now sending our kids back into the playground petri dish - so whatever is out there, will be heading straight into our homes within  days

We need to watch what happens now. If cases remain flat and reasonably controlled as they have done since the start of July when things opened up again - then that's a really good sign and would indicate that the current plan is working. Because the alternative is that we've created a perfect storm for an autumn lockdown

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or if you've read the countless studies from around the world, the classroons are NOT contagious zones.

 

[Van der MoodHoover]

On 02/09/2020 at 16:51, Coconut said:

You should probably just judge it on my voice. Unfortunately I'm completely tone deaf and have no mid range. No amount of money, hard work or vocal coaching could fix that!

I can do a very loud, piercing screaming noise though if pushed. Goes right through people.

Britain's Got Talent instead, perhaps?

A little dance act in those fetching purple crocs interspersed with a few piercing screams?

Right up there with Stavros Flatley....?

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

Or if you've read the countless studies from around the world, the classroons are NOT contagious zones.

 

Yes - as I keep trying to say - i look forward to those studies being proved right by the actual real life drill going on right now in our schools

[rammieib]

1 minute ago, SchtivePesley said:

Yes - as I keep trying to say - i look forward to those studies being proved right by the actual real life drill going on right now in our schools

But what about the schools already open in Europe proving this to be correct? Holland was fully open three months ago for instance.

[Stive Pesley]

6 minutes ago, rammieib said:

But what about the schools already open in Europe proving this to be correct? Holland was fully open three months ago for instance.

And? I'm saying I hope our situation mirrors the studies that have been done which appear to show transmission in young kids is low, and not the studies that have provided inconsistent or inconclusive results

Why do some people get so aggro at anyone who expresses caution about this virus? 

[Chester40]

18 hours ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

Our kids went back to school today. Younger one (10) told to take their mask off at the gate. No explanation from the school. So much for their message of respect.

Will have to see later what their experience was of their first day then take it from there.

I had to do some 'emotional attachment and resilience' training for professionals working with children. 

Everything said was interesting, grounded in strong theory and all very supportive. I liked the trainer and she explained when she was doing home visits her child was anxious, so she had explained calmly to her the precautions she was taking and showed her the mask she wore etc. A couple of nice colleagues of mine expressed the same feelings and talked about their similar way of handling it. 

Now my kids haven't given a flying fig about my safety. They hadn't even thought about it, never mind been anxious about my safety! It also struck me that my kids have been going to school on and off, and haven't given it a second thought. Other colleagues have since said much the same, their kids have not been bothered at all and went happily into school yesterday without expressing any concerns. The two colleagues who had been talking about showing them their masks etc were both on the WhatsApp group saying how they had coached their children through it and had managed to get them in even despite their anxieties..and on reflection they are the two most naturally anxious people themselves. 

I'm sure some people will say its healthier to not bury/repress worries but I genuinely don't think my kids were even thinking about it, they don't think its anything to worry about. 

As a reply to your post. No children at my kids school at all were wearing masks and possibly two parents were at drop off. The children are going to be sat together all day, wearing a mask isn't going to be practical or currently deemed 'necessary' during the school day, so a teacher letting children wear masks as they enter probably raises more questions than answers. What would you have preferred? And what did you hope to gain by them wearing a mask as they sat in the car/walked up the school driveway?

Not being dismissive, vulnerable grandparents potentially being infected could be very concerning, but children of that age have very little to worry about for themselves. 

 

[rammieib]

10 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

And? I'm saying I hope our situation mirrors the studies that have been done which appear to show transmission in young kids is low, and not the studies that have provided inconsistent or inconclusive results

Why do some people get so aggro at anyone who expresses caution about this virus? 

Here is what your original post said:

September should be interesting . The schools are back today (mine are anyway) - and most people have been away on some sort of holiday at home or abroad. So, in terms of cross-pollination of communities, it's been at it's peak in the last few weeks - and we're now sending our kids back into the playground petri dish - so whatever is out there, will be heading straight into our homes within  days

 

So despite there being no evidence of this virus being transmitted in schools, studies and evidence by multiple schools in other countries opening up, your original language was scare mongering and suggesting it will do. You've then backed away from your original post language once I challenged it. 

[Hathersage Ram]

With the very low death rates now attributable to COVID, what do people put this down to? We have significant people testing positive but no real pressure on numbers at all in NHS ICU units etc, as most people seem to be having no symptoms. Is the virus diminishing in its harmful effects?

 

[Stive Pesley]

6 minutes ago, Hathersage Ram said:

With the very low death rates now attributable to COVID, what do people put this down to? We have significant people testing positive but no real pressure on numbers at all in NHS ICU units etc, as most people seem to be having no symptoms. Is the virus diminishing in its harmful effects?

 

We're all just prats on a football forum guessing, but there was a theory all along that coronaviruses don't thrive so well in the warmer months. Along with everyone (especially the most vulnerable) being hyper-vigilant on hygiene (compared to "normal" times - before the pandemic how often did you ever stop to wonder how you caught an  illness likle the flu or a cold?)

 

 

 

[rammieib]

3 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

We're all just prats on a football forum guessing, but there was a theory all along that coronaviruses don't thrive so well in the warmer months. Along with everyone (especially the most vulnerable) being hyper-vigilant on hygiene (compared to "normal" times - before the pandemic how often did you ever stop to wonder how you caught an  illness likle the flu or a cold?)

 

 

 

Except the warmer months theory would work if it was thriving in India, California, Florida, Mexico etc.

For me, and yes as you say we're all guessing, its a combination of:

- We are now subject to weaker amounts of this virus and therefore it doesn't attack you in the same levels as the early days

- There were a certain amount of people who were vulnerable to this, for whatever reason, and this has now gone through them

- The virus has mutated to a different strain which passes over quite easily but leaves you with nothing more than a few mild symptoms or nothing

If we took March/April out of the equation and the virus was only ever at the level we had right now, would the country have the current behaviors we have now? I sincerely doubt it.

Now - I do agree the impact of Winter is a question mark as people are pushed inside but I don't think we will see spikes or waves anything near to April levels. I also think we knew the true levels of this virus in those months, there wouldn't be the hysteria we have now as cases would be down by 95% (like deaths/hospital admissions)

[ariotofmyown]

12 minutes ago, rammieib said:

If we took March/April out of the equation and the virus was only ever at the level we had right now, would the country have the current behaviors we have now? I sincerely doubt it.

If we didn't take March and April out of the equation and remember that we had around 50k extra deaths in that period, then it seems reasonable to assume we could have had way more excess deaths without the current behaviours being implemented.

Didn't the random testing to see who had the virus suggest about 7% of the population has had it? Those people that think everything should be back to normal see to have blanked out the weeks where 1000s of people were dying.