The Politics Thread 2020

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

1 hour ago, Bob The Badger said:

I'm sure it's a coincidence that the US under Trump and the UK under Johnson are about the two worst countries on earth at managing this.

I'd have asked 6-months ago, 'Ok, there's going to be an international pandemic and one country will manage it really well and the other one badly. And those countries are, the UK and Germany'

Who would have said I'll bet my house on the UK?

If you remove dress sense, music and comedy from the equation and maybe winning world wars, the Germans just kick our ass at most things.

 

Credit where it's due, both US and UK are brilliant at fooling people though. Graph is taken from world economic forum page and dated Feb 2020.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/these-are-the-countries-best-prepared-for-health-emergencies/

"Good grief" ?

 

 

[Bob The Badger]

35 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Just do one thing and one thing only. Measure this via deaths per capita and the picture changes. Nevermind the endless other variables people can argue over, back on forth. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

That's exactly how you DON'T do science.

The other variables are absolutely critical to truly understand what went wrong, what is going on, and what can be learned.

 

[Wolfie]

11 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

So if I'm reading that correctly, the UK is the 4th worst deaths per capita with 432 deaths per million people

Similar sized and larger developed countries like Japan, South Africa, South Korea - all have deaths per million in the low single figures

There is no arguing that we've made a mess of this

 

A few points:

1. Do all countries measure deaths in the same way?

2. Do all countries report honestly?

3. What is the effect of climate?. Why haven't African / other hot, poor countries suffered much worse?.

4. Do all countries have similar population density?

Unless you're comparing apples with apples, it's difficult to argue anything much.

[Uptherams]

3 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

That's exactly how you DON'T do science.

The other variables are absolutely critical to truly understand what went wrong, what is going on, and what can be learned.

 

So you disagree with yourself then ???

[G STAR RAM]

16 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

I dunno - so many to consider...

Did we start testing early enough?

Did we test enough people?

Did we do enough contact tracing?

Did we stop flights early enough?

Did we test people coming in on those flights?

Did we have enough PPE for frontline staff?

Did we close the schools early enough?

Did we go into lockdown early enough?

How many people have caught it?

How many people have died from it?

To be honest I'm struggling to think of a single meaningful measure where our government didn't royally balls it up

And I'm not asking you to critique my choice of suggested measures by the way (but I know you will)

Won't critique them, it's your own opinion but its interesting to see that you dont really have many suggestions that are actually measurable or comparable to how other countries have coped.

[Archied]

55 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Just out of interest, what measure will you use for assessing how well or badly the Government have handled the crisis, and why?

Don’t know about anybody else but I will judge/ am judging by whether by listening to those in charge I feel confident they are honest open and inspire a kind of trust also I’m not expecting them to be right on top of everything and make no mistakes as that would be very unfair and unrealistic in a situation that is unprecedented, honesty with the good and bad aspects shows they are able to learn fast and improve ,

not seeing that and to be honest I switch off quickly from them and the spin as otherwise I just end up wanting to scream ohh just duck off at the screen

[Stive Pesley]

45 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

A few points:

1. Do all countries measure deaths in the same way?

2. Do all countries report honestly?

3. What is the effect of climate?. Why haven't African / other hot, poor countries suffered much worse?.

4. Do all countries have similar population density?

Unless you're comparing apples with apples, it's difficult to argue anything much.

Difficult but not impossible, and certainly not a reason why we shouldn't try. There are plenty of countries with vaguely similar characteristics

I mean, we've clearly been one of the hardest hit countries in terms of infections and deaths. You can either shrug your shoulders and say "ah well them's the breaks, every country is different - just bad luck and our leaders did their best"

or you can apply some critical thinking and look at the words and actions of our leaders and say "they could have handled this a lot better"

I don't have a problem with anyone who wants to do the former, but don't argue with me for wanting to do the latter

 

[Wolfie]

37 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Difficult but not impossible, and certainly not a reason why we shouldn't try. There are plenty of countries with vaguely similar characteristics

I mean, we've clearly been one of the hardest hit countries in terms of infections and deaths. You can either shrug your shoulders and say "ah well them's the breaks, every country is different - just bad luck and our leaders did their best"

or you can apply some critical thinking and look at the words and actions of our leaders and say "they could have handled this a lot better"

I don't have a problem with anyone who wants to do the former, but don't argue with me for wanting to do the latter

 

But my point is you can't even say that because there are too many variables between different countries. Plus, of course some things have been done badly (volume of testing done) and some much better (massive expansion in hospital capacity), but we're 3-4 months into a pandemic which could last well into next year. At least.

How can we say we have been hard hit by the number of infections?. We have no idea how many we've had, never mind other countries.

It is still early days. If we accept that we've had a high number of cases, how do we know that we haven't managed to achieve a useful level of herd immunity that some other countries haven't?.....

How do we know that those countries with low deaths are yet to experience their big spike in infections & deaths from a second wave?.

How can we say we've been one of the worst for deaths when all countries are so different? - for the reasons I said before.

 

Critical thought requires an analysis of all angles, both positive and negative. It comes across that you have merely ticked off the negatives and checked that against the blueness of the government. 

[Stive Pesley]

47 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

But my point is you can't even say that because there are too many variables between different countries. Plus, of course some things have been done badly (volume of testing done) and some much better (massive expansion in hospital capacity), but we're 3-4 months into a pandemic which could last well into next year. At least.

How can we say we have been hard hit by the number of infections?. We have no idea how many we've had, never mind other countries.

It is still early days. If we accept that we've had a high number of cases, how do we know that we haven't managed to achieve a useful level of herd immunity that some other countries haven't?.....

How do we know that those countries with low deaths are yet to experience their big spike in infections & deaths from a second wave?.

How can we say we've been one of the worst for deaths when all countries are so different? - for the reasons I said before.

 

Critical thought requires an analysis of all angles, both positive and negative. It comes across that you have merely ticked off the negatives and checked that against the blueness of the government. 

you sound a bit ridiculous with the what-ifs there.

What if the dead all come back to life and they've turned into super-invincible unicorns who poo a vaccine into our eyes?

We can all only look at what's in front of us and make up our own minds.

I'm just a bit baffled by people who are so desperate to make excuses for our so-called leaders.

And for the record, I've said multiple times that I don't consider this pandemic a party political issue, so if you think I'm just being negative because it's a Tory administration then I'm afraid you are wrong. I'd be critical of any government that had overseen this level of fatal errors

 

[Wolfie]

6 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

you sound a bit ridiculous with the what-ifs there.

What if the dead all come back to life and they've turned into super-invincible unicorns who poo a vaccine into our eyes?

We can all only look at what's in front of us and make up our own minds.

I'm just a bit baffled by people who are so desperate to make excuses for our so-called leaders.

And for the record, I've said multiple times that I don't consider this pandemic a party political issue, so if you think I'm just being negative because it's a Tory administration then I'm afraid you are wrong. I'd be critical of any government that had overseen this level of fatal errors

 

I'm not making excuses for anyone but I'm not going to draw premature conclusions when we are at the start of this battle still and comparisons can only currently be made against data from other countries which is at best, incomplete and at worst, made up.

Countries have all made different decisions (and mistakes) and it's far too early to say who will come out of this with fewer deaths over all.

My list of what if's might look perfectly plausible in a few months, however you choose to ridicule it.

[Archied]

Latest buzzword phrase, sure footed ,, say it enough times in one briefing and were back in Kansas ??

[Uptherams]

Put the forum comrades in charge. They'll fix it all with their 'science', understanding of statistics and non party political points. And don't forget crying with laughter emoji's. ?

[GboroRam]

8 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Put the forum comrades in charge. They'll fix it all with their 'science', understanding of statistics and non party political points. And don't forget crying with laughter emoji's. ?

Yes, the right wingers never use laughter emojis do they ???

[Andicis]

42 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

you sound a bit ridiculous with the what-ifs there.

What if the dead all come back to life and they've turned into super-invincible unicorns who poo a vaccine into our eyes?

We can all only look at what's in front of us and make up our own minds.

I'm just a bit baffled by people who are so desperate to make excuses for our so-called leaders.

And for the record, I've said multiple times that I don't consider this pandemic a party political issue, so if you think I'm just being negative because it's a Tory administration then I'm afraid you are wrong. I'd be critical of any government that had overseen this level of fatal errors

 

No, you're the one who sounds a bit ridiculous looking at the numbers without looking at the context behind them. You don't consider this pandemic a party political issue, yet refuse to look at anything that suggests it's not entirely the tory's fault. To draw conclusions this early and without a huge amount of useful data is a pointless stick to beat the government with.

[Uptherams]

5 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Yes, the right wingers never use laughter emojis do they ???

Don't know. I'm left footed and play left mid, but have to sometimes fill my partners position. ?

[Archied]

Can’t for the life of me understand why the keep showing the graph of deaths comparing countries , there really is no point figures in this country are all over the shop let alone the fact that there is no standard world measure in assigning ,counting and reporting,, 

drop the bloody thing ,it’s either a stick to beat the government with or a method to give false praise if numbers change 

[Norman]

58 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

I'm not making excuses for anyone but I'm not going to draw premature conclusions when we are at the start of this battle still and comparisons can only currently be made against data from other countries which is at best, incomplete and at worst, made up.

Countries have all made different decisions (and mistakes) and it's far too early to say who will come out of this with fewer deaths over all.

My list of what if's might look perfectly plausible in a few months, however you choose to ridicule it.

Australia and New Zealand on the face it have done well. But they have no immunity. And whilst they have no immunity, they have no economy in huge sectors for them until a vaccine arrives. Risky.

Again, Germany tracked and traced. But again, it has stopped immunity. 

The truth is, until 6 months down the road, nobody will know the answers. 

My bet? Our economy will be stronger than most countries in the world. 

How much is each death worth, though? Hard, hard decisions to make. I wouldnt want to be doing it. 

[Eddie]

4 hours ago, Van Wolfie said:

A few points:

1. Do all countries measure deaths in the same way? 

2. Do all countries report honestly?

3. What is the effect of climate?. Why haven't African / other hot, poor countries suffered much worse?.

4. Do all countries have similar population density?

Unless you're comparing apples with apples, it's difficult to argue anything much.

Taking your points in order...

1. No. Personally, I think that deaths as an indicator is not the prime indicator of the virulence and contagion of a virus - cases are. If those cases are amongst an elderly population, an unfit population or an obese one, then  high incidence of death is inevitable. Reduce the number of cases, the deaths will fall a month later (as we are seeing).

2. We are the second-worst in the world behind the USA as far as the number of reported deaths are concerned. It doesn't matter one jot whether some countries are dishonest in their reporting - we are supposed to be one of three or four countries who were 'well prepared'. For us to be where we are in comparison to those who were supposedly more ill-prepared must indicate either that we have performed very badly somewhere along the road - or (unlikely) that ALL other countries are misreporting.

3. Population density may well be a factor here - or perhaps the virus does not survive long enough outside the body when isolated from cells. Only time - and science - will tell.

4. No. The virus requires close proximity to another potential host in order to propagate, so in areas of low population density, people are naturally more isolated and come into close contact more rareely.

[Eddie]

36 minutes ago, Norman said:

Australia and New Zealand on the face it have done well. But they have no immunity. And whilst they have no immunity, they have no economy in huge sectors for them until a vaccine arrives. Risky.

Again, Germany tracked and traced. But again, it has stopped immunity. 

The truth is, until 6 months down the road, nobody will know the answers. 

My bet? Our economy will be stronger than most countries in the world. 

How much is each death worth, though? Hard, hard decisions to make. I wouldnt want to be doing it. 

Just about every virologist in the world said from very early on that using 'herd immunity' as a first line of defence wasn't just foolish - it was insane.

[1of4]

With the talk of the lock down being lifted and therefore the return to work for many. I was wondering how many of these people, will be asked to work in non social distancing situation, are worried about contracting the virus. But are having to return to work, for fear of losing their jobs.

I noticed in America that a VP at Amazon as resigned in protest over the sacking of workers who had raised concerns about the safety of the workers in Amazon's distribution centres.

I also read that the Republican Party in America want to pass legislation in their Congress, that will protect employers and businesses from being sued by employees and customers , if they contract the virus from another employee or customer.

I wonder if we could see a similar law to protect businesses here, put in front of our own Parliament in the near future?