FlyBritishMidland

Northampton 1 Derby 2

FRGS Nelson

I think we hadn’t scored in the previous 4 games but created loads of chances.  Me and my mates had arranged to go into town after the game so Mrs FBM dropped me off.  I remember saying to her on the way “someone’s in for a stuffing, and I hope it’s these”.  OK, there may have been the odd expletive in that sentence.

I seem to remember seeing a chap Jorrocks with a Rams shirt on a something like “Bryson 3-0” on it, age muddles the mind.  It’s fair to say, we stayed out longer than we planned and drank considerably more than we planned!!

5 minutes ago, Topram said:

Not much of an incentive for the players to get promoted now is it? Or am I looking at it wrong 

Could be were not talking to players about new contracts now because we don’t want it to be a distraction.  And changes are inevitable whichever division we’re in due to the number of players out of contract, age profile, etc.  And they probably know that anyway.

Either way, I’d wait and watch it back later in the week.  It’s impossible to get the context of the discussion in a tweet.

I’ve found a video their appeal……

22 hours ago, angieram said:

You’ve got be of a certain vintage to get understand that.  Did you’re Mum & Dad explain that to you @angieram ?

3 hours ago, eddielewis said:

Whilst Peterborough on the face of it have the 'easiest' run in I would consider that their game against Port Vale 3 days after Wembley cup final a massive banana skin alongside that away fixture vs Cheltenham (who were unlucky not to beat Barnsley at the weekend) on the tuesday of the final week. You want to avoid teams who still have something to play for. Their constant 2 games a week schedule you would think will make them vulnerable to fatigue in games. Even their away game vs Orient before the pizza cup final you would think for those players to try and not get injured and miss playing at Wembley.

That’s what I’ve been think about too. Peterborough have probably got the easiest run-in, but have 9 games including the BSM Trophy Final.  And it’s compounded by the fact that they don’t play this weekend. That means they have all 9 of these games in a 30 day period, so roughly a game every 3 days.  It’s a big ask to keep momentum going over this period.

6 hours ago, ap04 said:

The keeper making a big save is not "good performance", it is good individually by the keeper but poor defending overall by the team compared to no threat at all (and conversely for the attacking).

But that's irrelevant, the point was that both systems are equally bad at judging who was better on the day by missing most aspects of a performance (boolean).

So we should ignore that the keeper did the job that he’s paid to do very well.  He did what he was supposed to do when called upon.  You do know that sometimes the opposition will inevitably get through the defence and have shot don’t you?

7 hours ago, ap04 said:

You mean because the ball sneaked past Waghorn's armpit the tactics and players were a small triumph, but had it not they would have been a mild letdown. Makes perfect sense.

You’re right.  Let’s ignore the actual result, the points awarded and league position and instead focus on a hypothetical scenario against an average team at a neutral ground.  Makes perfect sense.

I was thinking about this earlier.  With no midweek games I’d like to think we can get pretty close to a sellout.  The Blackpool game might be tricky as it’s Good Friday and quite a few might be away on holiday.  It would be great if we can get 29k - 30k for the 3.

It was spine tingling yesterday, a brilliant atmosphere throughout. Let’s make every game now a “Black n White” game.  The crowd can be so important in helping us win these last 3 home games that might make the difference between autos and play-offs 🐏.

2 hours ago, ap04 said:

Net chances per game against the league's average opponent on neutral ground. By xG, demonstrably the best metric to evaluate past performance in the public domain once you haven't followed a team's games.

 

Ignore the result mate, Wilson heading it in is just one moment of the performance, it doesn't "cancel" the remaining 95'.

 

This is simply not true, he was nowhere near it.

I’ve bit.  I’m sorry but what a load of…………nonsense.  Firstly, leagues average opponent at a neutral ground.  What does that even mean.  Neutral ground - what a totally pointless statement as football isn’t played at neutral grounds.

Secondly, ignore the result.  What world does that happen.  As far as I know, it’s results that determine the league table and teams end up where they deserve over 46 games. Yes, you’ve read that right, deserve based on results not some made up statistics.

Thirdly, well I think @Caerphilly Ram has posted the evidence in response to that.

I think it’s pretty clear PW has built a fantastic culture and team spirit at the club.  All of the players and staff are united and fighting to get us promoted. This is testament to his man-management skills.  I seem to remember an interview with Ritchie Barker (?) not long after they joined compliment PW’s leadership and how they’d walk through a brick wall for him.  I think he has that with players.

In the past I’ve been critical of how he uses the subs but in the last few weeks he’s been spot on with these.  He also seems to be managing the squad well.  Some Rotherham fans talked about the players tiring at the end of the season.  We’re not really seeing that and he seems to be managing the game time of the squad well and not taking unnecessary risks.

I’d go with either 3-4-3 or 3-5-2, depending who we’re playing and who’s available.  Injuries and fitness of those available may dictate 3-5-2 against Northampton but I’d prefer a 3-4-3 set up.  I think we can bit more attacking and go for it, a bit like Bristol Rovers away.  Adam’s definitely starts in 1 of the 2 midfield positions with either Hourihane or Smith.

But against Portsmouth for example, and maybe Blackpool, we’d probably benefit from the extra man in midfield so I’d prefer 3-5-2, similar to the 2nd half yesterday.  I do think Thompson needs to be 1 of the 3 midfielders in a 3-5-2 for his energy and he can support the attack.  Then it would be Adams plus either Hourihane or Smith.

11 hours ago, ap04 said:

Two students sit a set on exams on a subject, rule is the one with the most A+'s (goals) passes with all other efforts (chances) chucked away - equal both fail.

Student A gets A+ B C D (and passes), student B gets A A B C (and fails). Was A clearly the better student, or lucky to have passed?

Professional and resilient is my description for yesterday.  After a 5-0 win in the week they were full of confidence.  They played some nice football and we had be strong and well organised. Wildsmith probably had his best game of the season and his saves were just as important as the goal. Cashin was my MoM, I thought he was superb all game.

Hourihane was missing for me.  He had a few passes go astray early on and I think it affected his confidence.  In games like that you look for your captain to be the calming influence but it wasn’t there.  I think Thompson’s energy added a lot in the 2nd half.  The subs in the last 2 games show how much we’re going to need all of the squad.  It’s a shame Gayle is injured, hopefully not for too long.  The flip side is we have players back for the run in.  It seems like it’s 1 in, 1 out at the moment.

Game 4 of an important month out of the way.

Derby 2 Bolton 2

FRGS NML

54 minutes ago, Dryhorce said:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/gijs-smal/profil/spieler/374212

I would like us to take a look at this guy his number of assists are freighting last year got 10 also isn't on a big wage his names been linked with Rangers and Celtic 

It really is squeaky bum time.  This is quite a big weekend.  If we win it’s a great result, draw and it’s a good result.  Portsmouth v Peterborough is interesting. Both on a good run but Portsmouth have had the easier games.  I think the winner of that will then continue their run.  Personally, I’d be happy with a Portsmouth win.  Let’s open a gap between us and 3rd and ease the pressure.

7 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Sign players who are used to playing in the sytem we're trying to implements and stick to that system. We'll then have a higher success rate with signings. Signing wingers, wing-backs, or full backs, then not playing with wingers, wing-backs, or full backs, is a recipe for failure. So too is signing slower defenders to play in a high line, orleavijg them exposed by pushing the other CBs high up the pitch.

Flip flopping between formations and having a mish-mash of players who prefer different formations (including the ones signed by Warne) were probably bigger reasons. We're looking better now because this formation suits the majority of our fit squad members.

We had Mendez-Laing and Barkhuizen contracted for the season, but Warne wanted to play a system which didn't use them so didn't sign anyone to play out wide. Except, a few weeks into the season we decided we now did want to play with wingers, but only had 2 players who were comfortable playing there. On to January, we finally sign a winger, only to change to a system which doesn't use wingers the very next day. With him back from injury and getting opportunities off the bench in a more settled system, he's starting to look better.

We signed Elder to play a fairly unfamiliar LWB role and he struggled early on. He then picked up an injury which kept him out for a while. He returned when we were playing a back 4 and looked settled after a couple of games. Picked up another injury and we've gone back to wing backs. Where will he fit in long term?

Wilson and Ward were signed for the RWB role but had niggles. Nyambe came in and we shifted away from a setup which used RWBs. Upon their return, we stuck with 4 at the back, which meant Ward/Wilson had to either play at RB where they have at times struggled defensively, or further forward where Ward doesn't have to pace to beat a man, and Wilson lacks consistent end product.

Which brings us back to Nyambe. Where will he fit in? He's good 3rd choice cover at RWB (behind Ward and Wilson), but you don't want him playing there too often due to his poor end product. He doesn't get in at RCB over Nelson, so would we drop one of our highest earners (Bradley) to put him in? Or do we go back to a back 4, drop Bradley and waste Ward/Wilson?

 

We're then onto the truly bad buys...

Fornah was always a bad buy who will cost us a few hundred thousand eventually. When we already had Bird, Hourihane, Smith, Thompson, and Sibley, with DRobinson coming through, Fornah wasn't the right type of player to sign. We needed either an out and out DM (such as Adams), or an AM with end product.

Embleton and John-Jules were high risk signings we should never have taken. With a number of other injury risks in the squad (Forsyth, Elder, Wilson, Waghorn, Washington) we couldn't afford to take on more. Embleton had only just returned to training after being out since December, and John-Jules was signed injured, having been out since the previous October.

Good points.  I don’t think it’s a bad thing having options to switch from 3 to 4 at the back, either during a game or for different games.  Often a manager has been accused of no Plan B, now we seem to have one.  I also think that the number of signings made in the summer and them taking time to adjust meant a lot of the players here were used.  If it was evolution of the squad, signings may not have been questioned as much.  At the start of the season Oxford were used as an example of a lot of signings making an impact, yet look at the comparative positions now.

Agree that Embleton and John-Jules were high risk signings, not necessarily bad signings.  They were definite gambles, and our BP probably meant they were worth taking.  The jury’s out on Fornah and we’ll find out if he has a future in the summer as to whether he’s still here or not.  If we can sign Adams, it would suggest his time is up.

I’ve got a theory about PW signings.  He’s obviously big on fitness, being able to press and keep it going for close to 90mins.  I think for new signings this takes a bit of getting used to and Ritchie Barker alluded to this when talking about CBT.  I think that’s why we’re now seeing more of his summer signings come into the team and why some picked up niggles early on and we used more of the current players.  I think we’ll see the best of CBT next season.

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Appologies if I misread what you posted then. It's hard to keep up when only you have suggested players over the past 8 pages of this thread. Your post suggested we go in for him if Blackburn aren't interested in him anymore, but didn't directly state waiting for him to run down his contract. This is also the summer suggestion thread, so you can see why I got mixed up.

However, your squad, assuming all out of contract players leave and all of your suggestions join:

GK: Vickers, Kelly, McCrorie, Slicker, Wickens
RCB: Nelson, Nyambe, Rooney, Welsh
CB: Bradley, Souttar, McKenna, Mayo, Hamilton
LCB: Cashin, Worrell, Wood, Deas
RWB: Ward, Wilson, Strain, Ralston, Mulligan, Johnston
LWB: Elder, Beck
CM: ACampbell, Watson, Barron, Miller
CM: Fornah, Baccus, Irving, JCampbell, Jack
RW: Armstrong, Cameron, Doak, Poveda 
LW: Mendez-Laing, Blackett-Taylor
CF: Washington, Bair, McBurnie, Nouble, Bowie, Hornby, McGuire

Only a respectable 48 man squad. A couple more and we'll have as many as Forest.

And that’s assuming we let all the players who are out of contract in the summer leave!!

7 hours ago, Dryhorce said:

Half the teams leaving aren't they?So they would all be coming in to play,and most on significantly less money we need a striker though so suggest this guy

 

Are the EFL changing the rules?  You’ve suggested virtually every player who’s ever kicked a ball in Scotland!!

Another good performance.  Similar to Saturday, we did everything but score in the 1st half.  Their keeper played well and Cashin was unlucky to hit the woodwork.  Gayle’s first touch for his goal was superb and it took some nerve from Hourihane for the penalty, I hate it when there’s a long delay between the award and taking as I think it gives the advantage to the keeper.  I was surprised at 4 subs just after the penalty but I think Saturday was in PW’s mind with all the changes.

Barkhuizen was my MoM.  He looks rejuvenated and is unlucky not to have scored in the last 2 games.  One of the best bits for was seeing Hourihane on the bench after going off. He was up and down and encouraging the team.  That’s great to see and testament to the team spirit PW and his staff have built.

Game 3 of an important month out of the way.

Derby 3 Reading 1

FRGS NML

16 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

You replied specifically to my point that people’s bias against the manager was colouring their judgment, raising a counter point that people who support the manager do the same. Which is fair enough.

My initial point, the one you replied to, was informed by a couple of posts last night that focused on the wording of press conference answers in what I don’t think is a measured and balanced manner.

In simple terms I think some people who dislike Warne (and by extension his staff) will genuinely look for any stick to beat him with.
 

I’m not defending Warne here, I’m saying I think in my personal opinion it is odd to bring up the wording of press conferences as a point of contention when we’re 9 games out from the end of the season, with the possibility of promotion very much in our hands, having equalled our away wins record, outscoring most of the league, conceding less than most of the league, with another big game on the horizon tonight…. But yeah let’s have a dig about what Barker said in reply to a question about CBT before last Saturday’s game…

There’s more positive to focus on than negative in my view, irrespective of Warne. Each to their own I guess 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Totally agree.  And it’s the bit in bold I’m really struggling with.  It’s almost as if there’s disappointment at not being able to criticise the last 2 games so let’s do a search to see what I can find. And bring up something from 3 or 4 days ago just for the hell of it.  I’m fine with people wanting to criticise in a constructive way.  I just think in this case it’s neither necessary or constructive.  

We’ve won 2 on the bounce with an aggregate score of 6-0 and gone clear in 2nd, even if others win their games in hand.  We’re now back to psychoanalysing everything Warne and his staff say.  You couldn’t make it up!!