alexxxxx

We're getting relegated.. Nearly a certainty with our squad which I've accepted. Im far more worried about us going out of business. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

Isn't the vaccine efficacy in the 90% range?  

In the real world the vaccines are very much up to 80/90% protection for serious illness, but much much less for infection. Israel reckon Pfizer is only about 60% effective for infection at the most. 

Single shots are practically useless. 

The numbers seem to vary a lot depending on the studies. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

And according to ths Govt paper, they expect 60%-70% of deaths to come from double vaccinated people because that contains the most vuulnerable/elderly group.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

page 10 #32

Unfortunately, as with the flu jab every year there are still thousands of deaths because regardless of jabs, people don't live forever.

 

So how long do we wait? And what do we do with people that don't want the jab?  So long as the NHS isn't under to much pressure, it should be an individual choice whether you get jabbed or not.

I'm not presenting it as an argument to not reopening. I just think it's disingenuous to claim the vaccine is close to being perfect and that it will protect everyone.

Even when vaccinated there is still a large risk for millions of people, particularly if the virus is left to grow quite literally uncontrolled. 

Mathematically it's impossible to reach herd immunity via vaccination, as they are not effective enough, so inevitably many will be infected. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

We are allowing nightclubs to open uncontrolled now but insist upon vaccination status by Sept - a point in time that everyone that wants the jab should have had both.  If the concern was to save lives/protect the NHS etc, you would at the very least restrict access now.

I would agree personally. I think we should have waited for all adults to have been fully vaccinated before reopening. Boris seemed like he was talking to naughty children on Monday threatening to take away their toys... They haven't even had the chance to be fully vaccinated yet. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

I'd agree with that, but don't think that vaccination passports (and there inevitable creep imo) are the answer.

Like I said there is no perfect solution although I think vaccine certificates will be an ongoing condition for international travel for years. 

3 hours ago, Charlotte Ram said:

OK the facts are,

* Overseas fans (me) cannot get SKY in the USA, so the $34 I just paid is good value, regarding the SKY games which cannot be shown on Rams TV they are shown on ESPN + an internet channel for $6.99/month.

The only games I cannot get are FA cup games which does not bother me as after last years debacle with the FA and Chorley is competition I know longer have any interest in.

So to sum up if you don't renew your subscription it is harming the Rams and please spare the sanctimonious justifications being about SKY/MEL/Wayne/EFL etc 

Don't get me wrong I've lived abroad before, but thankfully in a 'dark market' where I got every game apart from FA cup. Can't remember the cost then but it was worth it.

I now live back in England and sub to both sky and bt sport. I also sub to mlb.tv and the value is much, much better. 

It's this kind of stuff that makes me think the efl is completely not fit for purpose.

And the fact that rams TV is completely not worth it for the midweek games when theyre on red button despite being better quality. 

For this price you expect an app to use on your TV, or casting, full HD... Look at what the Americans provide at that price... 

2 minutes ago, maxjam said:

 

So?  Who are they spreading it to?  We where told that vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable was our way out of this mess.  The it was everyone over 50.  Now its everyone over 18 with discussions about jabbing children.

These vaccinations are new, we have no long term data.  After we jabbed everyone over 50, 99% of the people getting ill were protected.  We're now spending huge sums of money enforcing a vaccination programme upon millions of people most of whom don't need it and for all of whom the potential risks of having it outweigh the benefits of having it.

We are now being told by a Govt that swore many times that they were not going to introduce vaccine passports, that we've got to have a vaccine passport to enter nightclubs and 'crowded venues'.   Given that this Govt seems to enjoy its power and consistently lies to us and the term 'crowded venue' can be applied to virtually anything, how long before the noose starts to tighten?  I am personally deeply concerned that in 12 months time, 2 years time, 5 years time, we will be living in a very draconian society.

The vaccines aren't close to 100% effective though, you're making them out to be more effective than they really are. There are millions still vulnerable. 

I don't necessarily disagree with you about being unclear what the long term effects are, as the full trials are not complete but let's not kid ourselves in thinking everyone's protected who needs to be. 

And furthermore, the higher the level of infection in society the higher the chance the vulnerable will be infected.

I don't think there is a good solution. 

Seen Derby have gone cashless. Coins and notes not accepted at all next season in the concourse. 

11 hours ago, maxjam said:

He also went on to tweet;

Based on preliminary intentions I am aware of in @DHSCgovuk, this will also mandate vaccination for those eg carrying out deliveries/servicing the boilers at such care homes…

Now, I’m sympathetic to ensuring frontline care workers protect their vulnerable patients, but dramatically widening the scope of this to cover more than frontline care staff is troubling. I’m pro-vaccine, but where does this end? Especially when these Regulations, raising hugely important questions, are trying to be snuck through the Commons with only 90 minutes debate.

Ministers should rapidly start assuaging reasonable concerns about whether this is a back door to domestic vaccine passports.

Very worrying on 2 counts...

Firstly, you either get vaccinated (with a vaccine that may or may not have long term negative effects) or you slowly become a second class citizen with potentially limited job opportunites, access to public transport/supermarkets (see the law Macron just passed).

Secondly, they risk further limiting the number of staff that want to work in an already understaffed sector. 

And thats without mentioning any tin foil hat Bill Gates is tracking me conspiracy theories ? 

If the vaccine had more than emergency use authorisation would you agree with it being a necessary condition of employment?

The whole debacle after the game with the gov, the racism and garbage just shows why they need to continue to make a stand. And I think footballers can continue to decide the best way to do that. 

Had the opportunity to grab a second vaccine dose a few weeks early.. I know a few people doing the same. 

Feels like the best thing to do right now with cases still rising. 

Will be interesting to see what the impact was on the semi and final to cases... Data seemed to show that case growth was slowing. 

Its really interesting looking at what Australia are doing right now.. Due to terrible vaccine supply and banning of AZ vaccine for under 60s they've barely got anyone protected. NSW looking like they're going to go in to full lockdown again..

No end in site for them if they carry on down this road.

To manage the first half of the pandemic so well and to be failing hard on the second half...

What a night. Was some soft contact with Sterling so pen was always on the cards. Lots of foreign people claiming we cheated but var ruled in our favour. Denmark lucky for the fk.. again soft. Denmark offered very little. Come on England..

2 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

There are some pretty key points in there about what is probably gonna happen:

a) Case numbers are going to be massive over the summer now. Whilst the government won't say what their modelling is predicting, they have said 100k cases per day is likely.

b) Whilst the majority of unvaccinated people are younger and less vulnerable, there will still be a rise in deaths and hospitalisations (again no modelling released by government). As @alexxxxx mentions above, Covid does impact younger people. Hopefully the number of tragic deaths of young people will be extremely low.

c) Hospitality is staffed mainly by young people. Lots of the staff will get Covid and the others will have to self isolate. If you think the 19th is gonna give us freedom to go and do whatever we want, you might be disappointed.

But if we don't fully reopen now, then when? How about in a few weeks when all adults could be vaccinated?

Yea i mean i still doubt (m)any younger folk will die because of it, but don't rule out long term health issues. 

I think the government bet too big on AZ vaccine and a couple of others which haven't got approval yet. This has lead to only a minor trickle of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines unfortunately meaning big hold ups. I'm sure they thought earlier on in the vaccination programme they'd have been able to hit that last date. If you look at the latest vaccine data from Europe, some countries have nearly caught up as their supply has been more consistent. 

the gov probably think that if they were to delay reopening further, it would have little impact but might push some infections coinciding with increase in flu cases in autumn which wouldnt be helpful either. Difficult decision. 

23 hours ago, maxjam said:

I think that most people have had the chance to get at least 1 jab now, and Boris mentioned yesterday that they were reducing the gap between 1st and 2nd jabs to 8 weeks so that everyone could get both well before any potential winter spike.

 

One jab has shown to be quite ineffective though. I know people whove been infected and got quite ill after one vaccine. The new variant is much more evasive. That's why you can't get a certificate until you've got two. 

Its been bookable to 8 weeks for about 3 weeks - it isn't new news, but boris needed to say something positive about dose spacing as its a long time. 

23 hours ago, TexasRam said:

But if the cases/hospitalisation ratio is now close to flu (I don’t know if it is or isn’t) then why don’t we measure and communicate flu cases? I just think living with Covid means it doesn’t have to be measured and promoted at on every media channel going. 
Doesn’t the data also show the effects of Covid don’t negatively effect the under 40s (obviously there are some unfortunate cases) and those it does effect eg the vulnerable under 40 should of been protected by the vaccinations.  

I don't know if it is close to flu or not. I do agree that potentially it isn't helpful for the media to keep quoting the numbers on the daily, particularly as they fluctuate day to day anyway but keeping the data there for all to see is important. The data collection and provision is very good and detailed. 

On your second point, I know a few younger people whove been impacted badly by covid and the range of illness they've had varied from a couple of days with no energy watching telly to being quite ill, months without taste and smell. Anecdotally friends of friends been hospitalised for pneumonia and because oxygen levels have dropped too low.

I don't like being told that because the odds are more in my favour, the very real risk of bad illness is completely fine to take in my case. Feels like we've had to give up a lot of freedoms but we don't even get the opportunity to be properly protected before 'letting it rip. '

It is clear that almost everyone will get covid now... I can't see how cases will go down until mid August. 

Anyway I am a bit hypocritical because I almost certainly will be taking some advantage of the changes in regulations... If venues can remain open with the amount of self isolation required.. 

19 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

I hope now as well we stop counting and reporting case numbers as well. If hospitalisations and or deaths see significant increase in certain areas then that’s the time for action, with the vaccination program surely cases numbers are now irrelevant. 
 

Anyway great news froM BJ yesterday, all be it about a Month to late (data not data) 

 

I'm not sure intentionally hiding data/not collecting it is the right way to go about this. Its in everyone's interest that there's transparency in the outcome of the result. I'm sure the government would love the jump on we did the right thing. 

Cases aren't irrelevant, as hospitalisations and deaths are clearly a function of cases (although the ratio is much lower than it was). 

Anecdotally I know a lot of people being exposed to covid, and due to my age I have not had chance to have 2 vaccines. The vaccine roll out has slowed down a lot after it hit the under 40s.

I would have preferred that everyone had the chance to be double vaccinated prior to reopening as I think there is a risk of huge numbers of people getting it and even more having to isolate. 

I know I'm supposedly not at (much) risk, but equally I don't like being told that my health doesn't matter either. 

The self isolation stuff is going to be a nightmare this summer. Booked to go away in August so unless the rules change, we're going to have to have a quiet week before to reduce the risk of coming in to contact with people. 

Something is going on here, how come we haven't seen these written reasons yet? 

Of course the players are going to be worried about playing in league 1 - the club isn't going to tell them what's going on (if they know) because it'll get leaked via agents.

I wonder if the DC are upset with EFL for posting that they had an interchangeable fixture list?

Perhaps there's something in the DC decision that the EFL don't like, or even criticises the LAP? 

1 hour ago, Taribo said:

Trouble is if we used the amortisation methodology as a way to increase spending/defer losses then we will likely be in breach of P&S when compared to the 'standard' methodology.

Losses/spending for amortisation would have been capped against a different criteria than for 'standard' methodology, we may have been within P&S using our method, but over if we now have to revert to 'standard' P&S methodology.

Not really our fault though if the EFL signed it off (three times - if we believe what we've heard). 

 

Will love to see what clubs have done this year. Stoke have somehow lost 85M by writing down the value of all their players this year... I assume P and S isn't being enforced this season?

Basically they're doing to opposite and dumping all their value this year to reduce paper losses in the future.

Reading have lost 85M over the past 2 years. 

I wonder what side of the fence these owners are on? 

1 hour ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

Did we start using the “new” amortisation before the stadium sale occurred?

Yes we've been using it for years

If Derby stay up I think a few clubs need to get together to put together a viable way of separation from the efl. Might even have to get knocking on the Premier leagues door... They want to reduce down to 18 teams... 

Call me old fashioned but what happened to making and doing stuff for people to make wealth rather than just speculation on crypto and house prices. 

If anyone followed how the efl put macclesfield out of business the pattern is very similar. It's just an onslaught of appeals and punishments. They even relegated them on ppg in a very dodgy way (applying the points deduction before growthing up the points...).

They appeal everything from the DC to the LAP every time which invariably goes their way. Not fit for purpose. 

They want blood and us out of business, and frankly we're on the ropes right now. It makes it sound like every club and fan wants us gone. 

If we are relegated to league 1 and then get a ffp penalty I honestly think as a business and a club we are gone. Admin then liquidation. 

Make no mistake this must go our way and every avenue must be looked at because the very existence of the club is at stake here. Mel can't bankroll us forever.

'Green Watchlist' - absolute joke. 

Main problem now for holidays and general risk is the increased cases. 

Who makes these decisions on behalf of the EFL?

Who actually decides whether to appeal and who to go after etc. 

LAP doesn't appear an appropriate body to arbitrate for appeals in this instance. 

Its basically 1 lawyer from both the EFL and Derby, then a third lawyer supposedly independently appointed.

How a LAP can be appealed to beyond a DC which appears to have more expertise and manpower is beyond me. 

14 minutes ago, JfR said:

Not a statement, but certainly a "statement"

Tbf even boro and forest have just put Derby and not Derby/wycombe

8 minutes ago, JfR said:

You know, the more I think about it, the more bizarre it seems that the EFL are making and very openly broadcasting the fact they're making a separate fixture list based on a points deduction that hasn't happened. They've just invented a potential punishment that's different to the punishment that has actually been handed out and are going to publish a set of fixtures based on this imagined punishment, even though there's no suggestion that it's likely that it will actually be given.

What a weird organisation.

Shows their intention... They're going to appeal.