alexxxxx

Going to Spain next week... Just got to avoid getting covid till then. 

I knew there were a lot of things you need to fill in and tests to get etc but it really does make everything less relaxing.

I wear the ffp2 ones on the train and bus.. They are far more effective. 

Also looks like Australian state of nsw is taking a big turn for the worse under lockdown rules similar to the ones we were under in Jan /Feb time.

Interesting wa, qld, tas and sa seem to be more or less covid free. 

1 hour ago, Albert said:

The official advice, now accepted by the Federal government, is that elimination remains the only strategy for Australia. NSW can eliminate it, but it's going to take them actually putting in proper restrictions, than than this patchwork stuff that keep going for. Sadly, they buggered up the response, but everyone saw this coming when it started. Gladys wanted to play politics with a virus and lost. 

I just don't see how it's sustainable long term. Australia will indefinitely have to keep isolated with hotel quarantine to keep this up forever.

Looks like NSW cases may trend down.. The contact tracing really does seem to work at low levels. 

Australia probably handled the pandemic the best in the world after NZ but I don't understand how they can keep up the absolute zero covid policy forever unless you continue with HQ forever.

Even when there's a high level of vaccination you will still get pockets of transmission because the vaccines as shown elsewhere aren't close to 100% transmission. 

39 minutes ago, Stagtime said:

The biggest issue here is different levels of government in charge of different things. Unfortunately the federal government is in charge of vaccinations and have totally ducked it up. People want the vaccinations but our main orders aren’t  due into the country till September. 

Maybe we have been lucky but to date the only difference I’ve had since COVID started is 6 days of pubs being shut, didn’t lose 1 day of work. As for tourism in Qld, try getting accommodation, if you didn’t book anything 3 months in advance you have next to no chance of finding anything. Financially, our GDP actually grew last financial year. The talk is stage 2 kicking in early next year which will be when everyone has been given the opportunity of having the jab. Hopefully then we will be able to travel internationally. Tickets provisionally booked for Easter.

I suspect the hardest part will be moving from the elimination strategy (which could be impossible in NSW anyway now, due to delta variant) to regularising international travel and the inevitability of covid growth.

Seeing some australians comments online berating people for exercising outside incase you catch / spread covid shows how worlds apart the attitude is here and there. 

How Australia failed to procure the vaccines it required does point to a lack of planning in how to exit its otherwise well executed strategy. There have been so few deaths. 

1 minute ago, Rev said:

Who's they?

The metropolitan elite/msm/Labour voters/tory government/londoners/nicola sturgeon/the eu/Joe biden/corbyn (Jeremy)/SAGE.

Cases dropping very quickly at the moment. Final burn out of the virus through the unvaccinated perhaps? Euros ended? 

Whatevers caused it who cares long may it continue. Hope the final reopenings won't make much difference. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

Isn't the vaccine efficacy in the 90% range?  

In the real world the vaccines are very much up to 80/90% protection for serious illness, but much much less for infection. Israel reckon Pfizer is only about 60% effective for infection at the most. 

Single shots are practically useless. 

The numbers seem to vary a lot depending on the studies. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

And according to ths Govt paper, they expect 60%-70% of deaths to come from double vaccinated people because that contains the most vuulnerable/elderly group.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

page 10 #32

Unfortunately, as with the flu jab every year there are still thousands of deaths because regardless of jabs, people don't live forever.

 

So how long do we wait? And what do we do with people that don't want the jab?  So long as the NHS isn't under to much pressure, it should be an individual choice whether you get jabbed or not.

I'm not presenting it as an argument to not reopening. I just think it's disingenuous to claim the vaccine is close to being perfect and that it will protect everyone.

Even when vaccinated there is still a large risk for millions of people, particularly if the virus is left to grow quite literally uncontrolled. 

Mathematically it's impossible to reach herd immunity via vaccination, as they are not effective enough, so inevitably many will be infected. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

We are allowing nightclubs to open uncontrolled now but insist upon vaccination status by Sept - a point in time that everyone that wants the jab should have had both.  If the concern was to save lives/protect the NHS etc, you would at the very least restrict access now.

I would agree personally. I think we should have waited for all adults to have been fully vaccinated before reopening. Boris seemed like he was talking to naughty children on Monday threatening to take away their toys... They haven't even had the chance to be fully vaccinated yet. 

22 hours ago, maxjam said:

I'd agree with that, but don't think that vaccination passports (and there inevitable creep imo) are the answer.

Like I said there is no perfect solution although I think vaccine certificates will be an ongoing condition for international travel for years. 

2 minutes ago, maxjam said:

 

So?  Who are they spreading it to?  We where told that vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable was our way out of this mess.  The it was everyone over 50.  Now its everyone over 18 with discussions about jabbing children.

These vaccinations are new, we have no long term data.  After we jabbed everyone over 50, 99% of the people getting ill were protected.  We're now spending huge sums of money enforcing a vaccination programme upon millions of people most of whom don't need it and for all of whom the potential risks of having it outweigh the benefits of having it.

We are now being told by a Govt that swore many times that they were not going to introduce vaccine passports, that we've got to have a vaccine passport to enter nightclubs and 'crowded venues'.   Given that this Govt seems to enjoy its power and consistently lies to us and the term 'crowded venue' can be applied to virtually anything, how long before the noose starts to tighten?  I am personally deeply concerned that in 12 months time, 2 years time, 5 years time, we will be living in a very draconian society.

The vaccines aren't close to 100% effective though, you're making them out to be more effective than they really are. There are millions still vulnerable. 

I don't necessarily disagree with you about being unclear what the long term effects are, as the full trials are not complete but let's not kid ourselves in thinking everyone's protected who needs to be. 

And furthermore, the higher the level of infection in society the higher the chance the vulnerable will be infected.

I don't think there is a good solution. 

11 hours ago, maxjam said:

He also went on to tweet;

Based on preliminary intentions I am aware of in @DHSCgovuk, this will also mandate vaccination for those eg carrying out deliveries/servicing the boilers at such care homes…

Now, I’m sympathetic to ensuring frontline care workers protect their vulnerable patients, but dramatically widening the scope of this to cover more than frontline care staff is troubling. I’m pro-vaccine, but where does this end? Especially when these Regulations, raising hugely important questions, are trying to be snuck through the Commons with only 90 minutes debate.

Ministers should rapidly start assuaging reasonable concerns about whether this is a back door to domestic vaccine passports.

Very worrying on 2 counts...

Firstly, you either get vaccinated (with a vaccine that may or may not have long term negative effects) or you slowly become a second class citizen with potentially limited job opportunites, access to public transport/supermarkets (see the law Macron just passed).

Secondly, they risk further limiting the number of staff that want to work in an already understaffed sector. 

And thats without mentioning any tin foil hat Bill Gates is tracking me conspiracy theories ? 

If the vaccine had more than emergency use authorisation would you agree with it being a necessary condition of employment?

Had the opportunity to grab a second vaccine dose a few weeks early.. I know a few people doing the same. 

Feels like the best thing to do right now with cases still rising. 

Will be interesting to see what the impact was on the semi and final to cases... Data seemed to show that case growth was slowing. 

Its really interesting looking at what Australia are doing right now.. Due to terrible vaccine supply and banning of AZ vaccine for under 60s they've barely got anyone protected. NSW looking like they're going to go in to full lockdown again..

No end in site for them if they carry on down this road.

To manage the first half of the pandemic so well and to be failing hard on the second half...

2 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

There are some pretty key points in there about what is probably gonna happen:

a) Case numbers are going to be massive over the summer now. Whilst the government won't say what their modelling is predicting, they have said 100k cases per day is likely.

b) Whilst the majority of unvaccinated people are younger and less vulnerable, there will still be a rise in deaths and hospitalisations (again no modelling released by government). As @alexxxxx mentions above, Covid does impact younger people. Hopefully the number of tragic deaths of young people will be extremely low.

c) Hospitality is staffed mainly by young people. Lots of the staff will get Covid and the others will have to self isolate. If you think the 19th is gonna give us freedom to go and do whatever we want, you might be disappointed.

But if we don't fully reopen now, then when? How about in a few weeks when all adults could be vaccinated?

Yea i mean i still doubt (m)any younger folk will die because of it, but don't rule out long term health issues. 

I think the government bet too big on AZ vaccine and a couple of others which haven't got approval yet. This has lead to only a minor trickle of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines unfortunately meaning big hold ups. I'm sure they thought earlier on in the vaccination programme they'd have been able to hit that last date. If you look at the latest vaccine data from Europe, some countries have nearly caught up as their supply has been more consistent. 

the gov probably think that if they were to delay reopening further, it would have little impact but might push some infections coinciding with increase in flu cases in autumn which wouldnt be helpful either. Difficult decision. 

23 hours ago, maxjam said:

I think that most people have had the chance to get at least 1 jab now, and Boris mentioned yesterday that they were reducing the gap between 1st and 2nd jabs to 8 weeks so that everyone could get both well before any potential winter spike.

 

One jab has shown to be quite ineffective though. I know people whove been infected and got quite ill after one vaccine. The new variant is much more evasive. That's why you can't get a certificate until you've got two. 

Its been bookable to 8 weeks for about 3 weeks - it isn't new news, but boris needed to say something positive about dose spacing as its a long time. 

23 hours ago, TexasRam said:

But if the cases/hospitalisation ratio is now close to flu (I don’t know if it is or isn’t) then why don’t we measure and communicate flu cases? I just think living with Covid means it doesn’t have to be measured and promoted at on every media channel going. 
Doesn’t the data also show the effects of Covid don’t negatively effect the under 40s (obviously there are some unfortunate cases) and those it does effect eg the vulnerable under 40 should of been protected by the vaccinations.  

I don't know if it is close to flu or not. I do agree that potentially it isn't helpful for the media to keep quoting the numbers on the daily, particularly as they fluctuate day to day anyway but keeping the data there for all to see is important. The data collection and provision is very good and detailed. 

On your second point, I know a few younger people whove been impacted badly by covid and the range of illness they've had varied from a couple of days with no energy watching telly to being quite ill, months without taste and smell. Anecdotally friends of friends been hospitalised for pneumonia and because oxygen levels have dropped too low.

I don't like being told that because the odds are more in my favour, the very real risk of bad illness is completely fine to take in my case. Feels like we've had to give up a lot of freedoms but we don't even get the opportunity to be properly protected before 'letting it rip. '

It is clear that almost everyone will get covid now... I can't see how cases will go down until mid August. 

Anyway I am a bit hypocritical because I almost certainly will be taking some advantage of the changes in regulations... If venues can remain open with the amount of self isolation required.. 

19 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

I hope now as well we stop counting and reporting case numbers as well. If hospitalisations and or deaths see significant increase in certain areas then that’s the time for action, with the vaccination program surely cases numbers are now irrelevant. 
 

Anyway great news froM BJ yesterday, all be it about a Month to late (data not data) 

 

I'm not sure intentionally hiding data/not collecting it is the right way to go about this. Its in everyone's interest that there's transparency in the outcome of the result. I'm sure the government would love the jump on we did the right thing. 

Cases aren't irrelevant, as hospitalisations and deaths are clearly a function of cases (although the ratio is much lower than it was). 

Anecdotally I know a lot of people being exposed to covid, and due to my age I have not had chance to have 2 vaccines. The vaccine roll out has slowed down a lot after it hit the under 40s.

I would have preferred that everyone had the chance to be double vaccinated prior to reopening as I think there is a risk of huge numbers of people getting it and even more having to isolate. 

I know I'm supposedly not at (much) risk, but equally I don't like being told that my health doesn't matter either. 

The self isolation stuff is going to be a nightmare this summer. Booked to go away in August so unless the rules change, we're going to have to have a quiet week before to reduce the risk of coming in to contact with people. 

Call me old fashioned but what happened to making and doing stuff for people to make wealth rather than just speculation on crypto and house prices. 

'Green Watchlist' - absolute joke. 

Main problem now for holidays and general risk is the increased cases. 

Looks like the gov are looking to remove travel restrictions for those with two vaccines. 

Good news although won't help family holidays. 

10 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Maybe Mel used him in his corporate transaction to buy dcfc from the yanks and he's being resurrected. 

Didn't Mel buy the club in 2014? This company wasn't registered til 2015.

Could be wrong but I think it's just someone messing about buying the company name. 

19 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

It's been restored having been previously dissolved so is effectively a new company from 4th June. 

Looks like a SPAV to me (special purpose acquisition vehicle). 

Directors look like a father and son duo with a third lady. 

Now, can anyone connect the stevensons with any interesting investors? 

But from what I can tell the guys been on the books there for 6 years?? 

So surely that would mean that they were interested since then? 

8 minutes ago, rynny said:

Newly formed company? Erm.... 

Its this kind of basic stuff that makes me not believe a lot that KM says. 

From what I can tell this company has never done anything. 

All three directors are just directors of Derby county limited and k Stevenson limited, both dormant companies. 

Registered office is just a standard registered office service to cloak the real location.

Other companies at this address include 'BT telecom limited' which was formed in 2020...

31 minutes ago, Jubbs said:

Now I'm not totally sure on what this means, but a quick google tells me he is a barrister?

I think this might be a red herring. Derby County Limited was formed in 2015 according to companies House and was a dormant company for years. Just happened to be this person was put in control of the dormant company today. 

Just gone on CH again - maybe not actually.... Looks like it's had a lot of changes this month. 

45 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

BBC reporting a 4 week extension to measures still in place, looks like Sage and the media have their way.

Question that should be asked today - PM you said as recent as last Monday that there was nothing in the data requiring an extension of measures left in place, what has changed

Question that more likely will be asked today - PM you promised we would open up on 21st, will you be resigning?

I mean this isn't even the worst u turn, the school one where they sent all the kids back to school for a day.... 

BJ will say they always said that the 21 June was the earliest date for reopening everything. 

What they'll do is throw a bone today about some additional stuff that can reopen to ease the pain . I reckon they'll permit weddings and maybe extend rule of 6 to rule of 10 or something. 

3 hours ago, Gaspode said:

Well that was one of the most boring races you'll ever see. They have to find a way to make Monaco less of a procession - it's a classic circuit, but the modern cars are too fast and too wide to allow any proper racing - and relying on clever pit stops or crashes to make it interesting isn't the answer....

Thought they should have gone for the harder tyres so there was more incentive for wheel to wheel racing instead of looking after tyres.

7 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Yes but the test aren't 100% are they? What's the percent of the UK with covid?

Way below 1% in most areas

21 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

I understood the MSD £18m loan was secured on the stadium, which the club do not own?

From what I can tell Mel bought the freehold to the stadium and then the mortgage is against the very long commercial lease that the club owns. 

Much like how you buy a flat or leasehold property where you can still get a mortgage against the property even if you don't technically own the freehold title. 

Could be wrong though.