Ghost of Clough

3 hours ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

I call it what it is, we have scored more and conceded fewer than last year. It’s factual. So as I originally stated, we’ve done better this season against the teams around us. It’s led to more wins and more points. Which has us second in the league close to securing automatic promotion. At this stage I’m not even sure you know the point you’re painstakingly trying to prove.
 

“Sampling variability”…. I’m starting to wonder if Football isn’t for you friend 🤔

Yes, statistics have their place in analysing performance and trends no doubt, but without the “variability” that comes from someone smashing in a screamer from 20 yards, or pulling off a wonder save against all probability then what’s the point? It’s a sport, an entertainment, if all you care about is statistics try monitoring stocks and shares, or the footfall of your local town centre, or the weather or something.

Anyone thinking a goal should count as an xG of 1.0, "becuase it was a goal" doesn't havea firm grasp of statistics. 

Imagine flipping a coin. It has an xH (expected heads) of 0.5 and xT (expected tails) of 0.5. This particular poster thinks after flipping the coin and it landing on heads, the probability should be counted as landing on heads 100% of the time.

The rest of what the poster says isn't much better than that

1 hour ago, Anon said:

Yes. That's easy to say with hindsight though. It's also a very different proposition trying to break into a Championship playoff team with Mount/Huddlestone/Bryson in front of you in the pecking order than breaking into a league one team. It seemed an odd time to release him though. 2019 was the summer that Mel realised he was in trouble with the finances and Cocu was encouraged to use talents produced from our academy. Surely Elsnik could've competed for game time with Bird/Sibley/Knight.

We decided we would get rid early in the 18/19 season. We even tried to sell him in the January to Mansfield (where he was supposed to stay the full season on loan and would be free in the summer). We then recalled him before realising no one would pay a fee for someone who would be free a few months later, then panic loaned him out to the first taker.

It's been said a few times, but whoever was making the final decision on our youngsters players was doing a bad job of it. We got lucky with Cashin and to some degree Ebosele, but missed out big time on Whittaker, Archie Brown, Jacobsen, and Elsnik.

1 hour ago, Kernow said:

I wouldn’t necessarily expect him to be nominated either, but I don’t get why Ferguson has either.

It’s all a bit irrelevant as Mousinho will win it, but still.

Could their EFL Trophy results be a factor?

 2nd will be ours 🐏

Barnsley play twice before our next game, with Bolton playing once. Worst case is just 2 points seperating all three sides after playing 42 games a piece, and Peterborough remaining 8 points behind us (with 2 games in hand).

Kicking off their game at the same time as us, Peterborough will have 6 games in 17 days, finishing off with Bolton on the last day. I can't see them maintaining pace despite having an easy set of games on paper. I think it'll result in Bolton winning their fixture, especially as Peterborough can use the game to rest key players ahead of the Playoffs.

Even if we win just 2 of our final 4 games, we end up with 88 points. If we can't acheive that, then we don't deserve promotion.. Peterborough or Barnsley would therefore have to win at least 5 of their final 6 games to finish above us. I have doubts Peterbrough will even achieve 5 wins for the reason mentioned above. 2 wins and a draw for us (should still be easy to achieve) would mean Barnsley need at least 16 points to pass us (due to our superior GD). Again it feels unlikely they'll be able to pass us.

It's between us an Bolton. They face Portsmouth in 2 games time. A game Portsmouth will be more than happy to take a draw from. At that point, it'll most likely keep them 9 points ahead of Bolton with just 3 games remaining, with them needing just 1 more win to clinch the title (assuming they beat beat Shrewsbury on Saturday).
Bolton won't be able to slip up in any other games. If they do, it means we're back to only needing 7 points to finish above them.

For us to take top spot, we would have to win all 4 and hope the best Portsmouth do is 2 wins and a draw from their 5 games. Since they've only lost 4 all season, losing 2 more in their final 5 games is unlikely - they do have Bolton, Barnsley and Lincoln to play, so not impossible. I think they'll find a way to snatch enough points to hold on to top spot.

21 minutes ago, Sidd10 said:

That Kamara is some player. Has he been this good all season? Looks championship ready to me. 

Sibley did a really good job containing him (as much as possible). 
 

Barring the goal of course… but hats off to young Louis and CBT doing his some defensive work too. 

Lets hope we can repeat this score line. 

Kamara will be going back to Norwich at the end of the season where he'll be used in rotation with their 3 other main wingers and Onel Hernandez shown the door.

3 hours ago, ivo_knoflicek said:

Apologies if this has already been brought up elsewhere, but if I’m correct then the goals from Adams and Ward in recent games have taken us up to 19 goalscorers in league games this season. Is that a club record? (Appreciate I could google it, but where’s the fun in that?)

CBT is clearly the most likely to get us up to a round 20, followed by Elder, Wildsmith, Brown, Robinson (D or K), Radcliffe in (rapidly) decreasing order of likelihood.

21 different scorers in 08/09

Wildsmith

Nelson   Cashin

Wilson   Smith   Adams   Sibley

Ward   Mendez-Laing   Blackett-Taylor

Collins

Subs: Vickers, DRobinson, Thompson, Hourihane, Fornah, Washington, Waghorn

2 minutes ago, angieram said:

👋 ?

6th - Oxford or Lincoln winning all of their games would put them level with our current total. They play each other, so they both can't pass us.

37 minutes ago, jimbobram said:

I still can't understand how he wasn't sent off for handling out the box ? or at least given a yellow! Not that im complaining. Anyone know the rule ? 

Should have been a yellow, but ref gave him some leeway due to the conditions. He gave a bit of leeway to both sides for a number fouls which would have been yellows on another day.

7 hours ago, rammieib said:

For every one of those top saves there are goals like tonight where he really should have stopped that long range shot.

Im coming to the conclusion I won’t be upset if he goes but should we go up, I’d also feel he owes us a little bit as well.

An xGOT of something like 0.61 would suggest those shots typically go in if on target...

Wycombe next, just 3 days after their Cup Final against Peterborough. There will be a few tired legs on the pitch.

Then Leyton Orient who have won just 1 in 6 and ate now pretty much out of the Playoff race.

A tricky away game vs Cambridge fighting for survival, but should be safe by the time we play them. They've won their last 2, but went 7 without a win before that.

Finishing off against soon to be relegated Carlisle, managed by someone who would surely give us a helping hand if we needed it

3 hours ago, Mick Brolly said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/68709502

 

Roughly £60m over budget afyer all exclusions are accounted for (rough estiamte without looking st any accounts). At least £26m of that due to 'budgeting' for a top 6 finish, and a further £10-15m due to sacking Rogers and his team. I can't see how they can explain the rest of the overspend.

9 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:

Guess next q is do we want Pompey win against Bolton or are we still in title race?

Portsmouth only need to win 3 out of their 5 to secure the title, so it would be unlikely for us to clinch top spot, even if they do lose to Bolton.

However, the do have 3 tough games still to play Bolton (away), Barnsley, and Lincoln (away, last day) to play so we could still sneak in on the last day...

I think I'd rather be 7 clear of 3rd with 3 games remaining to be honest.

A well earned point, but we could feel a tad unfortunate. Their first goal looked like it may have been offside, and there was a handball in the build up to the 2nd.

Still, that point pretty much means Bolton need to win every game now, as you'd back us to win 3 out of our remaining 4 games.

2 minutes ago, Addingham Ram said:

Collins replacing himself! Crikey. We'd have seen everything then 😀😀😀

The 2nd Collins should have been Washington 😅

Sibley and Wildsmith in particular a bit shaky first half. Which way is the rain blowing? Perhaps may be a factor so the second half will be in our favour.

We're finding a lot of space behind their left back on the counters, so Wilson, Ward and Mendez-Laing will continue to have a lot of joy. Rafferty is also struggling to deal with Blackett-Taylor when he's running at him.

Expect Blackett-Taylor, Collins, Smith and Ward to be withdrawn for Thompson, Waghorn, Collins and Fornah between the 70th and 80th minutes

10 minutes ago, Darlo Ram said:

Is this match on a sky sports bonus channel or regular sky sports. Want to buy a day pass for nowtv but that won’t show bonus channels and I can’t see on sky website exactly what it’s on 

Get a pass through RamsTV. You can travel abroad for free to watch the game

1 hour ago, NickPFC said:

LOL!!!!!! So......0-0 it is...deal? Our weaknesses match yours......I wish it were 22.00 right now....on edge!

My ex wife ACTUALLY said after a home defeat.....'It's only a game'.....aaaaarrrggh!

Derby cross more often than any other side in this league, with 10% more accurate crosses per 90 than the next best side.

We also love an attacking set-piece, which looks like one of your favourite ways to concede at home.

1 hour ago, sage said:

How do you focus attacks down the wing with a midfield diamond?

We will play 433

Expect the same 11 as againsy Blackpool, playing man for man in the middle (Adams, Smith and Mendez-Laing)

1 hour ago, CapeTownRams said:

We have to put three in midfield otherwise we stand no chance in my mind. Do that and double up as much as possible on their tricky winger …

The way we played against Blackpool resulted in Ward tucking in or Mendez-Laing dropping off to make a midfield 3. Even in our 3412, the '1' (such as Barkhuizen) would be the 3rd midfielder.

2 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I do feel bad for Oduroh at Hartlepool who presumably isn't coming back. It felt such a coup when he signed, after skippering the Man City youth team IIRC.

That said, I did wonder if Bates was gone for good too, but maybe this is to give him experience (18, same age as Brown)?

I'll be surprised if Bates is here next season. Despite being a regular starter last season, he's struggled to get much game time ahead of DRobinson, Fapetu, Radcliffe (when fit) and Hawkins this season, nevermind getting close to the first team. We also have central mids from the U18s ready to step up, such as McAndrew and Allen.

Bates is also 20 (not 18)

1 hour ago, Millenniumram said:

He’s out for a couple more weeks isn’t he? Unless I’ve missed something 

I thought we'd be lucky to see him before the end of the season tbh

1 hour ago, tinman said:

I see James Scanlon’s little brother has signed for Man Utd too. 
another case of little brother joining big brother after being forced to leave Derby for the money in previous years. 

James Scanlon made his international debut last week, coming off the bench in both games vs Lithuania.

1 hour ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

Top end midtable/top 6 I reckon backing I reckon certainly considerably more backing than Warne would get next season in the championship. Their budget will be more than Ipswich, and even the baggies, Cov, Preston the majority of the teams fighting for that 5th and 6th spot. Look at the signings they’ve made. Philogene £5m+, Aaron Connolly who won’t be on cheap wages either, Delap will come with a hefty wage contribution. He’s done a solid job at Hull but no more. 

FWIW I didn’t agree with letting him go and i liked what he was trying to build, but I also don’t get those (mainly on Twitter) who whenever Hull win point Rosenior effectively saying “this is what we could’ve won” and use it as another stick to beat Warne with. There are no guarantees we’d have fared any better under Liam, I actually don’t think we would’ve fared any better. 

Their transfer spend this season was funded by last season's sales.

Their wage bill last season was only £23.6m which is ranked only 14th is the league. You're looking at over £35m for a top 6 wage budget (Bristol City would have been 7th last season with £35.9m).

Im at a rather embarrassing 21.

3 PL, 9 Championship, 7 L1, and 2 L2