Sporting Intelligence Unit?

[RoyMac5]

 

[goodgollymickbrolly]

Whilst I think I’m behind us doing something like this, it does feel like a bit of a Mel Morris thing to do 😀

[Dan_Ram]

4 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:They will also use an Artificial Intelligence programme that is exclusive to Derby which, it is hoped, will give them an extra edge on the pitch as they prepare for life back in the Championship.

Morning ChatGPT, who should we play up front against Cardiff?

[DarkFruitsRam7]

1 hour ago, WestKentRam said:

Am very pleased to hear this, as am currently reading 'Football Hackers. The Science and Art of a Data Revolution'. It's heartening that Derby are buying into analytics with the appointments.

My favourite sentence in the book so far is 'it's simply nonsense to suggest that refereeing mistakes even themselves out in the course of a campaign'. I love a bit of confirmation bias.

The downside of reading that kind of stuff is it makes it a lot more annoying when you hear people saying stupid things!

[DiggerB]

5 hours ago, TomTom92 said:

Only two of them? Thought there might have been a third man.

No Point! 😜

[MadAmster]

5 hours ago, May Contain Nuts said:

Anything to gain an advantage, however small.

The questions for me would be, who's decided that these appointments are the way forward, and based on how much evidence of success elsewhere? 

That said there's nothing wrong with being an innovator (or an early adopter of innovation) as we were under Jim Smith when he was working with McClaren around the time of the birth of Sports Psychologists - without which a manager like Warne probably wouldn't exist 

The decision will likely have been David Clowes' to make. The real question is who came up with the idea and then managed to sell it to DC?

[RoyMac5]

33 minutes ago, Dan_Ram said:

Morning ChatGPT, who should we play up front against Cardiff?

Oh dear did that upset you? 

[Dan_Ram]

No, just a poor attempt at quoting your post by me. I was trying to single out the paragraph regarding the use of AI and make a joke about them consulting chat GPT. Clearly deleted all of your post thus leaving no context 😅 apologies.

[RoyMac5]

2 minutes ago, Dan_Ram said:

No, just a poor attempt at quoting your post by me. I was trying to single out the paragraph regarding the use of AI and make a joke about them consulting chat GPT. Clearly deleted all of your post thus leaving no context 😅 apologies.

You should have tried Copilot, that would have steered you right! 😉 I could only think that you were saying I used AI for my posts and tbh I've no idea how it works and that made me feel maybe I ought to try AI to find out! Cheers mate. 👍 😄

[cannable]

God, how do I say this without sounding like an a*******

Were any other cricket followers reading this headline and their initial reaction was WTF?!

[Ghost of Clough]

6 hours ago, WestKentRam said:

Am very pleased to hear this, as am currently reading 'Football Hackers. The Science and Art of a Data Revolution'. It's heartening that Derby are buying into analytics with the appointments.

My favourite sentence in the book so far is 'it's simply nonsense to suggest that refereeing mistakes even themselves out in the course of a campaign'. I love a bit of confirmation bias.

The good thing is confirmation bias is something you can influence - a side associated with 'cheating' is less likely the get favourable decisions, whilst a well liked side will be thr opposite.

Peak Barcelona were obviously known for their slick passing style, which bought them some leeway when showing their dirty side - resulting in fewer reds, more penalties, etc.

Forest arguably became everyone's least liked PL side last season (mostly due to off field shenanigans), which perhaps resulted in more decisions going against them as the season went on.

Clowes' core principles set a good benchmark for the club. As long as we stick to those, we stand a good chance of being on the right side of bias.

[Comrade 86]

7 hours ago, WestKentRam said:

Am very pleased to hear this, as am currently reading 'Football Hackers. The Science and Art of a Data Revolution'. It's heartening that Derby are buying into analytics with the appointments.

My favourite sentence in the book so far is 'it's simply nonsense to suggest that refereeing mistakes even themselves out in the course of a campaign'. I love a bit of confirmation bias.

WKR, are you able to explain to us heathens a little more about what areas might be scrutinised for incremental gains (if this is even an aim) and how football is using data beyond moneyball basics, please? You mention refereeing mistakes in humour, but I sense not entirely so.

For clarity, I'm aware that the All Blacks were somewhat pioneering in this area, on a relatively basic level, in that they studied in depth how every international referee interpreted the rules for key areas of the game; the breakdown and rucks and mauls, whether they understood the dark arts of the front rows at scrummage time, whether they spotted infringements to rolling mauls and the like. Legendary AB flanker, Richie McCaw, made a career out of it and when one reviews video of his era, it's easy to see how the AB's diligence benefitted them. We see the same attitudes and practices utilised by Rassie Erasmus currently, who took a failing Springbok squad and led them to successive RWC titles. What areas might we focus upon?

I simply ask as I fear without some sensible and informed input, this appointment will be another xG 'debate' whereby this poor chap is routinely dismissed as useless and unnecessary before he's even begun. It might be beneficial if new appointments were at least given a period of grace and perhaps some understanding might afford him that, on this forum at least.

Sorry, lots of questions, but my impression is that you have a grasp of the subject matter that others do not. If you've no wish to pop your head above the parapets though, you have my full understanding! 

Edited June 22 by Comrade 86

[DesertRam]

Surely everyone's seen the movie Moneyball with brad Pitt (based on a true story)  😉

[Chopper]

3 hours ago, DesertRam said:

Surely everyone's seen the movie Moneyball with brad Pitt (based on a true story)  😉

I enjoyed it. It was also a movie in my mind this time last year when we discussing losing McGoldricks goals (If we can get his goals spread out in 5 players etc.).

Whilst part of me would like it Bobat and Smith could play centre mid, I think I tend towards appointments like this as a potentially shrewd move. 

Not knowing a deal about the ins and outs of the role I'd be interested to see what they could use AI for and if they can offer further insights that could make all the difference. Working across all levels also, so is it Intel that helps in game management (this player does X, this ref usually gives y decisions), recruitment (how long it took England to settle on an opening pair after Cook and Strauss worries me) or some combination?

 

 

[MaltRam]

11 hours ago, cannable said:

God, how do I say this without sounding like an a*******

Were any other cricket followers reading this headline and their initial reaction was WTF?!

Why bud? WTF hood or bad? I'm a part-time cricket watcher. Never heard of Bobat.

[Mihangel]

15 hours ago, goodgollymickbrolly said:

Whilst I think I’m behind us doing something like this, it does feel like a bit of a Mel Morris thing to do 😀

In fairness, it sounds like the good things that Morris did rather than the spaffing loads on average players and employing celebrity managers....

[cannable]

16 minutes ago, MaltRam said:

Why bud? WTF hood or bad? I'm a part-time cricket watcher. Never heard of Bobat.

Good, I think

Mo Bobat’s often credited with helping turn England’s successful World Cup campaigns around.

At the time Ed Smith came across as a nob and his theories were all about playing freely and picking Jos Buttler at 7 to belt hundreds when England were in a dominant position. It didn’t work… but with hindsight that’s BazBall. He was probably ahead of his time. Looks like he still is if he’s heading up AI.

[FlyBritishMidland]

I like this sort of thing.  It’s a new, innovative approach and the sort of tbing we should try.

I think football can learn things from other sports.  But do I feel there’s a lot of arrogance around football that somehow it’s far superior.  Other sports such as Cricket, Rugby, Olympic sports, etc have been far more successful than football for decades.  Embrace the opportunity to learn from success.

[Chesterfield_Ram]

8 hours ago, DesertRam said:

Surely everyone's seen the movie Moneyball with brad Pitt (based on a true story)  😉

Being a nerd and a sports fan that probably one of my favourite movies.

However, your not suggesting that our lack of transfer activity so far is due to Warne wanting to field 9 players like they do in baseball are you? 😂

[WestKentRam]

9 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

WKR, are you able to explain to us heathens a little more about what areas might be scrutinised for incremental gains (if this is even an aim) and how football is using data beyond moneyball basics, please? You mention refereeing mistakes in humour, but I sense not entirely so.

I'm by no means an expert on this but am happy to write about what I've learned from reading this book so far (started it yesterday and only 1/4 of the way through) as well as a few others on analytics in football. You might regret you asked. Brace yourself for an essay... 😁

I do wonder about the influence of David Clowes on the new appointments, in that perhaps he has used statistical analysis already, thinking back to the pivotal moment in last season of Stevenage away. He kept calm and didn't sack PW despite the discontent among the fan base. Maybe this was more based on stats than just sticking with his man for sentimental reasons? By then we had already 'lost' five points to Bolton and Portsmouth due to refereeing decisions so the table position at the time did lie (a theme in the book), and there were dubious decisions in the Stevenage game where we also conceded two goals directly from free kicks that didn't indicate an overall malaise.

This links into two other examples in the book with regard to managers.

When Klopp left Dortmund to join Liverpool amateur analysts at the time had shown that his last 'poor' season at Dortmund was actually due to bad luck with regard to results of matches versus his team's stats. If this was realised at the time then who knows he might never have joined Liverpool.

With Alan Pardew at Newcastle in 11/12 his team finished 5th in the PL but based on the stats such as goal difference, distribution of goals and net shots on target, they should have finished lower. He was given an 8 year deal on the basis of the 'lucky' season, thinking he'd cracked it, but next season they finished 16th and he didn't last much longer. However the stats for both seasons were actually remarkably similar so he got a higher placing than expected in 'lucky' season 1 but lower in 'unlucky' season 2. If analytics had been used then more rational decisions concerning his contract might have been made.

Another interesting aspect of this is outcome bias, ie the perceived wisdom after the event to make the narrative fit the outcome rather than being a cool analysis of the facts. So season 1 Pardew is praised for attractive play and courage to play youngsters, in season 2 criticised for having a too gung-ho style of play and lack of experience in the team. 

As an aside and potential use of analytics, the current situation of Harry Kane and his playing for England in the Euros could be given. Different opinions from the pundits are he's too old, doesn't press and plays too deep, versus well he scored the goal against Denmark so needs to play. I would think that rather than making gut decisions on his selection then data could be analysed to make one that is more informed, considering variables such as, how many goals against Denmark 'should' England be scoring, does HK in the team affect this by actually reducing the total number of goals scored even allowing for him netting one. Analysis of different games in tournaments, friendlies, high and lower ranked teams, could be made to give some sort of an answer to this.

This sort of information does exist, in that the author mentions Matthew Benham at Brentford and Tony Bloom at Brighton, who both made fortunes from particular forms of gambling on football, enough to enable them to each buy their supported-since-childhood clubs and during their ownership get them promoted to the PL. They didn't do this by making lucky punts on games but adopted large scale analysis using teams of workers, knowing they only had to calculate the outcome of matches more than 50% of the time to make money. A factor included in this was the likely outcome if a particular player was in or out of the team, similar to the HK situation, so hard stats can be used rather than just guesswork.

The book discusses player ratings made by watching a game versus via stats, linked into the cognitive biases involved in scouting and the risks of this. Also, I like mention of the biases of narrative, such as Pep being a genius with regard to tactics and personnel, whereas he took over winning teams that have continued to win post him leaving, and has only coached the most or second most expensive teams in each league. 

There's mention of football being influenced by luck and how good and bad luck in games affects the outcome, but how the game hesitates to recognise this. I had the three Euros games on yesterday and having read this my ears pricked up with the number of times pundits said the word luck without even thinking about it and how this tied into the book.

Analysis of games using xG is discussed, and how this leads into 'the table does lie', both with examples.

It's an evolving relatively new area, but with the ability to analyse aspects such as throw ins, crossing the ball as a goal scoring method, corner kicks, as well as a myriad of other in game possibilities, then a more informed decision on managers, players and tactics can be utilised. That is apart from being used to identify undiscovered gems when signing players as per Moneyball.

An example that I've often scratched my head at, that I assume analytics could be used to give information on, is a free kick towards the end of a game we are chasing from behind. It seems an inordinate length of time is spent with the lining up the wall, discussions between the players as to who is going to take it with bluffing techniques thrown in, jostling in the box with the ref then delaying play to speak to the players concerned, only for the free kick to be blasted into the wall or row Z. With the clock ticking down would it be better to try a different routine with the ball passed short and played on from there. I've seen some examples in perhaps more innovative women's football. Analytics could give an answer as to the success of free kicks taken in particular areas with the personnel at hand, versus time taken to take them and probability of scoring from attacking open play in similar positions.

One reason I really like this move by the club is that we know it will be very hard to gain promotion from the Championship (if that is indeed the aim but then that's another philosophical debate...) given the unlikely-to-be-resolved-anytime-soon influence of parachute payments given to clubs relegated from the PL so they can bounce back up. Trying to gain an advantage using analytics hasn't at present been outlawed by the EFL, so is a smart way to try and progress rather than financial manipulation given the hazards we know that involves.

I'm sure DC in his business dealings doesn't just go with his gut but uses feasibility studies and similar to base decisions on, and I see the use of analytics at Derby being not dissimilar to this. PW as well is a shrewd cookie, and beneath the bobble hat and jokey exterior he's pleased to use this option for the next step of Derby in the Championship.