Transfer rumours

[Ghost of Clough]

2 hours ago, Magicman said:

Whose Draper ? 

Freddie Draper who we released at 16. Scored 10 and assisted 3 in 21 games for Walsall before being recalled by Lincoln in January

[MadAmster]

Omari Kellyman listed on here with a current value, together with Grant (2022*: Grant, Kellyman = £1.5m), of less than £1,5M, has just been sold by Villa to Chelsea for a reported £19M.

Edited September 11 by MadAmster

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

3 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

Omari Kellyman listed on here with a current value, together with Grant (2022*: Grant, Kellyman = £1.5m), of less than £1,5M, has just been sold by Villa to Chelsea for a reported £19M.

It's almost like Transfermarkt just make up the numbers

[Ghost of Clough]

25 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

Omari Kellyman listed on here with a current value, together with Grant (2022*: Grant, Kellyman = £1.5m), of less than £1,5M, has just been sold by Villa to Chelsea for a reported £19M.

That fee was inflated due to financial incompetenace among PL clubs though. You could adjust the figures I quoted to include the latest rumoured fees if you want, but it'll only make the totals go up - further proving the value in our academy averages out above the c£5m breakeven threshold.

[eddielewis]

56 minutes ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

It's almost like Transfermarkt just make up the numbers

 

32 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

That fee was inflated due to financial incompetenace among PL clubs though. You could adjust the figures I quoted to include the latest rumoured fees if you want, but it'll only make the totals go up - further proving the value in our academy averages out above the c£5m breakeven threshold.

A thing to consider and to expand with Transfermarkt's valuations of players it's not driven by the price but more of their performances/reputation and as it's the main football news source in Germany alongside Kicker I would hazard a guess that the valuation algorithm is probably centred around the Bundesliga so Kellyman would probably worth around £1 mill if he was German and playing for someone like Frankfurt. 

If they had a really detailed valuation algorithm that took market rates of all the foreign leagues (English in this case) especially after this mad summer window it probably cost more than the site to run. 

[MadAmster]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

That fee was inflated due to financial incompetenace among PL clubs though. You could adjust the figures I quoted to include the latest rumoured fees if you want, but it'll only make the totals go up - further proving the value in our academy averages out above the c£5m breakeven threshold.

It would certainly make them accurate.

[Magicman]

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Freddie Draper who we released at 16. Scored 10 and assisted 3 in 21 games for Walsall before being recalled by Lincoln in January

Still never heard of him ... is he playing somewhere now in the leagues ?

 

[Animal is a Ram]

6 minutes ago, Magicman said:

Still never heard of him ... is he playing somewhere now in the leagues ?

 

Lincoln, as GoC put in that post.

[Magicman]

2 minutes ago, Animal is a Ram said:

Lincoln, as GoC put in that post.

OK so not really a hot shot we lost !!

[Ghost of Clough]

3 hours ago, Magicman said:

OK so not really a hot shot we lost !!

But his 'value' contributes towards developing over £5m worth of talent a season.

Over the past 5 years, the players to have passed through our academy could have been sold for significantly more than £25m (to breakeven) if we had retained some (Kellyman, Gordon, Delap), if the higher ups had better judgement (Whittaker, ABrown, Draper), or not suffered from admin (Festy, Ebiowei, Buchanan).

We're obviosuly doing well at finding god players, so as long as we give them opportunities in the first team when the time is right, there's a very strong chance we'll recoup £5m+ a season in the long term. Thus, proving the money spent on the academy is more than worthwhile.

[Ambitious]

James Scanlon will be an interesting one, he scored his first competitive international goal at the weekend - one of the three/four Man Utd took from us during the administration period. 

[Ghost of Clough]

4 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

James Scanlon will be an interesting one, he scored his first competitive international goal at the weekend - one of the three/four Man Utd took from us during the administration period. 

His younger brother was at Forest, but joined up at Man Utd just under a year after James went there.

James had a very good season for their U18s last season and will be aiming to successfully make the step up to the U21s this season with a view to earning a loan move next season.

Kaba, one of the other 2 to leave us at the same time has so far struggled to get any real game time. Now into his 2nd year as a scholar.

The third is Malachi Sharpe, a year older than the other 2. He didn't play at all in 22/23 due to injury and struggled a bit last season. He ended up with 4 goals and an assist in 14 games. He's stepped up to the U21s this season and already has 2 goals and 2 assists in 3 games.

[jimtastic56]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

But his 'value' contributes towards developing over £5m worth of talent a season.

Over the past 5 years, the players to have passed through our academy could have been sold for significantly more than £25m (to breakeven) if we had retained some (Kellyman, Gordon, Delap), if the higher ups had better judgement (Whittaker, ABrown, Draper), or not suffered from admin (Festy, Ebiowei, Buchanan).

We're obviosuly doing well at finding god players, so as long as we give them opportunities in the first team when the time is right, there's a very strong chance we'll recoup £5m+ a season in the long term. Thus, proving the money spent on the academy is more than worthwhile.

Florists picked up Cash and Breritan as 16 year olds from other acadamies and made £25 million . Being able to see the potential of a young player can make or break an academy . Such a shame that when Rory Delap left Rams , he took his son with him . Still to be convinced he will make the grade in the Prem . 

[jono]

9 hours ago, eddielewis said:

 

A thing to consider and to expand with Transfermarkt's valuations of players it's not driven by the price but more of their performances/reputation and as it's the main football news source in Germany alongside Kicker I would hazard a guess that the valuation algorithm is probably centred around the Bundesliga so Kellyman would probably worth around £1 mill if he was German and playing for someone like Frankfurt. 

If they had a really detailed valuation algorithm that took market rates of all the foreign leagues (English in this case) especially after this mad summer window it probably cost more than the site to run. 

So basically it’s a SWAG …….as in scientific wild arsed guess

seriously though .. valuations ? There are lots of things on eBay with prices on them. That arent the same as “sold at”

[Ambitious]

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

His younger brother was at Forest, but joined up at Man Utd just under a year after James went there.

James had a very good season for their U18s last season and will be aiming to successfully make the step up to the U21s this season with a view to earning a loan move next season.

Kaba, one of the other 2 to leave us at the same time has so far struggled to get any real game time. Now into his 2nd year as a scholar.

The third is Malachi Sharpe, a year older than the other 2. He didn't play at all in 22/23 due to injury and struggled a bit last season. He ended up with 4 goals and an assist in 14 games. He's stepped up to the U21s this season and already has 2 goals and 2 assists in 3 games.

I believe there is a real expectation about Sharpe at United, didn’t realise he was one of ours. 

[brady1993]

4 minutes ago, jono said:

So basically it’s a SWAG …….as in scientific wild arsed guess

seriously though .. valuations ? There are lots of things on eBay with prices on them. That arent the same as “sold at”

Nah not exactly. It's a statistical score and based on real elements, think of it more as a way to loosely distil everything about a player into an expected value of their current worth for comparative purposes. Like with any score or statistic in general you do need to have an idea of how it's been calculated so you have a sense of what it's truly telling you. It's like how xG gets frequently misinterpreted. I do have my doubts on exactly how valid it is but as a rough outline it's probably good enough in most places.

If you're interested:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.in/transfermarkt-market-value-explained-how-is-it-determined-/view/news/385100

 

[brady1993]

9 hours ago, eddielewis said:

 

A thing to consider and to expand with Transfermarkt's valuations of players it's not driven by the price but more of their performances/reputation and as it's the main football news source in Germany alongside Kicker I would hazard a guess that the valuation algorithm is probably centred around the Bundesliga so Kellyman would probably worth around £1 mill if he was German and playing for someone like Frankfurt. 

If they had a really detailed valuation algorithm that took market rates of all the foreign leagues (English in this case) especially after this mad summer window it probably cost more than the site to run. 

Apparently it's not an algorithm (look at the link in my post above). Which I presume means they've not gone ahead and trained a model specifically for this purpose. Because they do mention combining pricing models and 'relies on the wisdom of the community' i.e. some kind of adjustment based on there own community which they likely use similar to how betting companies adjust odds.

[brady1993]

12 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

I think the suggestion that they should have been on the fringes this year lacks any real objective basis and assumes a greater understanding of their abilities that that of the Academy management team itself. That said, I do believe we have an exceptional young crop en route and that in another year or two, we may see several more homegrown players in the men's team, but the notion we should have several already doesn't seem to be shared by those who actually work with these lads every day and I'd take their opinions over ours until I have a conclusive reason not to.

Nobody's core underlying concern is coming from that they think X academy player should be starting without caveat. 

The issue is that Warne has had good opportunities to give minutes to players to help develop them and has frequently chosen not to do.  Players can develop rapidly with game time and that seems to happen more when it's game time for their own club rather than on loan. Obviously you don't do it mindlessly. But their is a huge gap between recklessly throwing them in and the current approach which is extremely conservative.

12 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

This year, the brief seems quite obvious; survive and /or consolidate. Achieve this and we can then look to build on integrating any really promising academy graduates in our second season back in what is a tough league. That's my take on the matter, though one not widely held it appears.

That's the thing it's never a good season to integrate youngsters. There will always be a reason not to do it. If you only introduce players who are clearly extremely good or you wait until someone is absolutely ready before getting any game time you will barely get out of the academy what you could have done. 

Even this season with the entire focus being on survival it would have cost us close to nothing towards that goal to start Brown against Barrow or bring him on earlier against Bristol. And you potentially gain a lot by doing that.

[jono]

6 hours ago, brady1993 said:

Nah not exactly. It's a statistical score and based on real elements, think of it more as a way to loosely distil everything about a player into an expected value of their current worth for comparative purposes. Like with any score or statistic in general you do need to have an idea of how it's been calculated so you have a sense of what it's truly telling you. It's like how xG gets frequently misinterpreted. I do have my doubts on exactly how valid it is but as a rough outline it's probably good enough in most places.

If you're interested:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.in/transfermarkt-market-value-explained-how-is-it-determined-/view/news/385100

 

Oh yes, I totally get it, but the nominal or stated value should really be treated with a large pinch of salt and simply seen as a something to try and create a benchmark relative to other players. It’s council tax bands. The actual values are meaningless but the spacing and demographic bell curve they (it) creates has significant use. 
 

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 hours ago, brady1993 said:

Nah not exactly. It's a statistical score and based on real elements, think of it more as a way to loosely distil everything about a player into an expected value of their current worth for comparative purposes. Like with any score or statistic in general you do need to have an idea of how it's been calculated so you have a sense of what it's truly telling you. It's like how xG gets frequently misinterpreted. I do have my doubts on exactly how valid it is but as a rough outline it's probably good enough in most places.

If you're interested:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.in/transfermarkt-market-value-explained-how-is-it-determined-/view/news/385100

 

All well and good but who is making the assessment?