The Ukraine War

[Ramarena]

Interesting weekend. 

- Prigozhin revealed Wagner has kidnapped a Russian commander, after he drunkenly ordered his unit to open fire on Wagner troops and a firefight ensued, ending up with his capture. Plenty of WTF in this story!

- Prigozhin also say's Ukraine has retaken significant areas of Bakhmut. 

- The Russian partisans have re-entered Belgorod, destroyed several armoured vehicles, taking two military prisoners as well. Belgorod's governor offered to meet with them in return for the release of the prisoners, the partisans agreed, Belgorod's governor failed to show up. Now the partisans have said they will send the prisoners to Ukraine to join the rest of the Russian PoW's.

- Russia claims to have destroyed the Ukrainian offensive in Donbass, with a some western media picking this story from the Russian MOD up. However this claim is contradicted by Russian Commander Alex Chodakovsky who states that Ukraine had broken through Russian lines at the town of Velika Novosilka, where they held after conceding ground. Ukraine then used this as a distraction to launch a small unexpected raid in nearby Novodonetskoye, which the Russian's we're struggling to repel. Ukraine is giving no info and no Ukrainian military sources are commenting. 

This is looking very similar to the Kharkiv liberation.

Ukrainian OPSEC went dark, Russia told the world they we're destroying Ukrainian advances, this was contradicted by Russian military commentators, later that week Ukraine liberates the entire city!

Edited June 5, 2023 by Ramarena

[Ramarena]

28 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

- Prigozhin revealed Wagner has kidnapped a Russian commander, after he drunkenly ordered his unit to open fire on Wagner troops and a firefight ensued, ending up with his capture. Plenty of WTF in this story!

This bit just got even more weird. 

The partisans have just released a video directed at Prigozhin, offering him the PoW's they captured, in exchange for the Russian commander Prigozhin has kidnapped. 

I have no clue what the hell is going on with this, what the leverages are and who is backstabbing who?

It also raises the question, who did the partisans take as prisoner that would entice the governor of Belgorod to offer a meeting (even thought he pulled out), and that would also would be worth exchanging for a Russian commander?

Prigozhin is obviously on manoeuvres and trying to build his rep within the Kremlin and the public, for what is starting to look like an inevitable attempt at overthrowing Putin at some stage. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Ramarena

[Van der MoodHoover]

6 hours ago, Ramarena said:

This bit just got even more weird. 

The partisans have just released a video directed at Prigozhin, offering him the PoW's they captured, in exchange for the Russian commander Prigozhin has kidnapped. 

I have no clue what the hell is going on with this, what the leverages are and who is backstabbing who?

It also raises the question, who did the partisans take as prisoner that would entice the governor of Belgorod to offer a meeting (even thought he pulled out), and that would also would be worth exchanging for a Russian commander?

Prigozhin is obviously on manoeuvres and trying to build his rep within the Kremlin and the public, for what is starting to look like an inevitable attempt at overthrowing Putin at some stage. 

Is it not the case that the leaders of these "partisans" look very much like the neo-nazis that Putin was making the Ukrainians out to be? Very dubious characters (but i was reading the BBC website so possibly not the best informed).

[Ramarena]

14 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Is it not the case that the leaders of these "partisans" look very much like the neo-nazis that Putin was making the Ukrainians out to be? Very dubious characters (but i was reading the BBC website so possibly not the best informed).

There’s no neo-Nazis in Russia, only Ukraine, you should know that already 😉

There’s two groups, the corps, who absolutely have far right etho-nationalist, anti-Putin Russians within their ranks. And free Russia, who are more moderate, but probably still contain some “undesirable elements”.

Obviously we view them through a western lens. In our world Free Russia would still be relatively right wing by our standards, but more moderate by Russian standards.

 

[Ramarena]

After months of concern and warnings about Russia destroying the Kakhovka Dam, it’s finally been attacked.

This cause another huge ecological disaster in Ukraine, displaces a lot of people and wildlife and has implications for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, as it takes its cooling water from the dam. The power plant reactors will now probably have to be shut down.

It is also an area where Ukraine had created a bridgehead on the other side of the river from Kherson as apart of their counter attack plans. That site and at least some of the equipment there may well have lost, if they hadn’t been able to move on in time.

[Ramarena]

Reading a bit more on the Zaporizhzhia power plant, which is controlled by the Russians who have the Ukrainian power plant workers under their regime.

It looks like the reactors have been shut down for a couple of months and it isn’t supplying power. They still need water to cool radioactive material in the reactors, the power plant has its own reservoir that it draws water from which is currently full, but it supplied from the dam, so could have implications further down the line if a new water supply is not found.

[Ram-Alf]

27 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Reading a bit more on the Zaporizhzhia power plant, which is controlled by the Russians who have the Ukrainian power plant workers under their regime.

It looks like the reactors have been shut down for a couple of months and it isn’t supplying power. They still need water to cool radioactive material in the reactors, the power plant has its own reservoir that it draws water from which is currently full, but it supplied from the dam, so could have implications further down the line if a new water supply is not found.

The Russians are laying the blame on Ukraine 😂 no change there, This shows madness and desperation, As you say the Nuclear plant has it's own water...until!

China will be a little worried if this escalates to a more serious Nuclear leak/explosion, It's clear that Putin is now on the back foot and is desperate for Zelensky to come to the negotiating table at any cost.  

[BucksRam]

1 hour ago, Ramarena said:

After months of concern and warnings about Russia destroying the Kakhovka Dam, it’s finally been attacked.

This cause another huge ecological disaster in Ukraine, displaces a lot of people and wildlife and has implications for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, as it takes its cooling water from the dam. The power plant reactors will now probably have to be shut down.

It is also an area where Ukraine had created a bridgehead on the other side of the river from Kherson as apart of their counter attack plans. That site and at least some of the equipment there may well have lost, if they hadn’t been able to move on in time.

Read earlier all 200+ animals in the zoo down from the dam have drowned 😔

On top of the huge loss for those trying to live in the flood zone - seen some images on Twitter which are awful, as if living in a war zone isn't enough. And it seems they're now being shelled whilst rescue efforts are underway to evacuate them. Really puts any issues we have into perspective. 

[Highgate]

Interesting to see the Kremlin and Russian state media now referring to Zelensky as a terrorist for the drone attacks on Moscow and the Russian partisan (who presumably have the support of Ukraine) attacks around Belgorod.  Remarkably hypocritical but not surprising.

If Russian State Media was your only source of information, imagine how warped your views on the war might be as well as your views of the West and the world in general.  

[Ramarena]

2 hours ago, Highgate said:

Interesting to see the Kremlin and Russian state media now referring to Zelensky as a terrorist for the drone attacks on Moscow and the Russian partisan (who presumably have the support of Ukraine) attacks around Belgorod.  Remarkably hypocritical but not surprising.

If Russian State Media was your only source of information, imagine how warped your views on the war might be as well as your views of the West and the world in general.  

If you take ever accusation Russia makes as an admission of guilt. Then things make a lot more sense. 

[Ramarena]

5 hours ago, The Last Post said:

The Russians are laying the blame on Ukraine 😂 no change there, This shows madness and desperation, As you say the Nuclear plant has it's own water...until!

China will be a little worried if this escalates to a more serious Nuclear leak/explosion, It's clear that Putin is now on the back foot and is desperate for Zelensky to come to the negotiating table at any cost.  

Indeed. The dam is under Russia’s control in “Russian territory”.

I’m not sure Ukraine has the required firepower to bring down a dam, with the power and accuracy (multiple hits at different strategic points) from long distance.

We also know that Russia had the dam mined and they also destroyed another dam in Karlivskyi in Donetsk last week.

[Eddie]

2 hours ago, Ramarena said:

Indeed. The dam is under Russia’s control in “Russian territory”.

I’m not sure Ukraine has the required firepower to bring down a dam, with the power and accuracy (multiple hits at different strategic points) from long distance.

We also know that Russia had the dam mined and they also destroyed another dam in Karlivskyi in Donetsk last week.

A pal of mine (a civil engineer) told me that it would be almost impossible to blow up the dam from the outside. The 'Dam Busters' raids used bombs which contained about 3 tons of explosive each, and were designed to sink to the foot of the dam (where the water pressure is greatest) before detonating. Even then, it took several detonations. The only way (he said) to destroy a modern large-scale dam would be by using a massive amount of explosives detonated inside the structure.

[Ram-Alf]

12 hours ago, Eddie said:

A pal of mine (a civil engineer) told me that it would be almost impossible to blow up the dam from the outside. The 'Dam Busters' raids used bombs which contained about 3 tons of explosive each, and were designed to sink to the foot of the dam (where the water pressure is greatest) before detonating. Even then, it took several detonations. The only way (he said) to destroy a modern large-scale dam would be by using a massive amount of explosives detonated inside the structure.

 

[Ramarena]

There’s a Kherson based hydrologist on telegram saying that they think only 20-40% of the Dams water has leaked out at present, with the rest to leak out over the next 8-10 days. So it’s only going to get worse.

They are also saying that ultimately, 60-70% of the regions agriculture could be under water, or without water supplied by the dam. This region is a huge producer and wheat and grain futures are already creeping up, which could well impact the price of food in a supermarket near you over time (as if it hadn’t already).

I really hope the initial reports of people on the Russian side being left to their fates without help are propaganda and aren’t true!

Edited June 7, 2023 by Ramarena

[Eddie]

20 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

There’s a Kherson based hydrologist on telegram saying that they think only 20-40% of the Dams water has leaked out at present, with the rest to leak out over the next 8-10 days. So it’s only going to get worse.

They are also saying that ultimately, 60-70% of the regions agriculture could be under water, or without water supplied by the dam. This region is a huge producer and wheat and grain futures are already creeping up, which could well impact the price of food in a supermarket near you over time (as if it hadn’t already).

I really hope the initial reports of people on the Russian side being left to their fates without help are propaganda and aren’t true!

If it's the Russian army being left to their fates, well, that's a pity..... Not!

[Ramarena]

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

If it's the Russian army being left to their fates, well, that's a pity..... Not!

Girkin (if you can trust what he says) has said that they lost some units, but most got out.

He claims the Russian army on the opposite bank was taken surprise by the dam burst, the decision was made by several Russian commanders its that area, they'd been given the authority to do it if they we're under attack and risked losing ground. 

These commanders panicked when they discovered a number of Ukrainian recon units in their territory in the middle of the night (around 2am), thought they were being attacked en masse and blew the dam, without informing the wider army in the area.

It seems to fit, but can you trust his word?

[Ramarena]

Looks like the counter offensive has officially started.

Melitopol direction seems to be the initial push.

[Ramarena]

Looks like a third dam in Russian controlled territory has been blown today near Klyuchove. 

It sounds like Russian forces retreated after getting overrun and then blew the dam to stop the Ukrainian advance. Fortunately this isn’t as big a dam, so nowhere near as devastating, however it’s pretty coincidental- losing thee dams in the space of a week. 

Other news this week had Russia claiming to have destroyed a column of Leopards and Bradley’s, there was some truth in this that the column was attacked by artillery after it got caught in a mine field. One bradley was destroyed, however several others were only damaged and have been retrieved, repaired and redeployed. 

All the crews got out and survived, which is a testament to the new equipment Ukraine has received, doing its job as intended!

[Rev]

45 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Looks like a third dam in Russian controlled territory has been blown today near Klyuchove. 

It sounds like Russian forces retreated after getting overrun and then blew the dam to stop the Ukrainian advance. Fortunately this isn’t as big a dam, so nowhere near as devastating, however it’s pretty coincidental- losing thee dams in the space of a week. 

Other news this week had Russia claiming to have destroyed a column of Leopards and Bradley’s, there was some truth in this that the column was attacked by artillery after it got caught in a mine field. One bradley was destroyed, however several others were only damaged and have been retrieved, repaired and redeployed. 

All the crews got out and survived, which is a testament to the new equipment Ukraine has received, doing its job as intended!

While I find your posts interesting and informative, can you occasionally post links to where you're deriving your information, so I might know where to look myself?

I'm not doubting the content, but it's hard to find such info amongst mainstream sites.

 

[Mr Tibbs]

The OSINT Community on Twitter is where you'll find all of this info. Lots of verified war reporting - some pretty grim to watch admittedly.