Archied Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 hours ago, Eddie said: Did say what? That there would be a second lockdown? Or that there would be a lockdown at Christmas? The fact that you seem to have nailed your colours quite firmly to David Icke's mast just to try to prove me wrong on something that seems particularly trivial makes me think that you wish to score a point or two. Well, you can have an entire internet if you like, but really, you are tilting at windmills when you haven't got a horse to sit on, let alone a leg to stand on. Incidentally, what I do know that David Icke said, for certain, is the following... Humanity is actually under the control of dinosaur-like alien reptiles called the Babylon Brotherhood who must consume human blood to maintain their human appearance. Humanity is mind-controlled and only slightly more conscious than your average zombie. Liberals are the new Nazis The world is going to end in 1997, Los Angeles will become an island, and both New Zealand and Kent will disappear. The Queen Mother is the 'Chief Toad' What you said he said? Simple yes or no??♂️ I never nail my colours to anybody’s mast as I’ve never found anybody who i believe is right all the time or wrong all the time come to that, I hugely disagree with you lots but also find at times I agree??♂️ would I trust boris and Hancock any more than icke? Not sure I would and one is a supposed loon the other two are running the country,,that’s pretty sad, still the point is you aren’t able to say fair play I made that bit up about icke to fit your view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Headline , van tam urges his mum to take it ,,,,,,,,,? Does he mean the vaccine or the play off final penalty ??♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Still no answer from the usual suspects on figure s of people dying from Covid on ventilators and waiting for ventilators the lack of which are killing them , come on why no figures , why they not relevant,one would think they are important in giving a true picture or forming one ,die ing with or die Ing from seems a big distinction we are all happy to gloss over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 57 minutes ago, Archied said: Still no answer from the usual suspects on figure s of people dying from Covid on ventilators and waiting for ventilators the lack of which are killing them , come on why no figures , why they not relevant,one would think they are important in giving a true picture or forming one ,die ing with or die Ing from seems a big distinction we are all happy to gloss over Because we don't know Archie, we don't know. Those figures probably don't exist published anywhere. And I don't know if it matters. If we've exhausted the supply of ventilators, it means there's more sick people than we can support. The virus is killing them indirectly. Come on people, just get the vaccine when it's available. The sooner we are resistant the sooner we go back to normal. Refusing it will just slow down that return to normality. I won't guarantee you won't be harmed by it, but the number of people who suffer long term illnesses will be small, that we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 53 minutes ago, Archied said: Still no answer from the usual suspects on figure s of people dying from Covid on ventilators and waiting for ventilators the lack of which are killing them , come on why no figures , why they not relevant,one would think they are important in giving a true picture or forming one ,die ing with or die Ing from seems a big distinction we are all happy to gloss over Not sure if I've understood your point here. There are currently 1,219 patients on mechanically ventilated beds. This compares to over 3,000 at the the height of the first peak, even then they were well below capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, GboroRam said: Because we don't know Archie, we don't know. Those figures probably don't exist published anywhere. And I don't know if it matters. If we've exhausted the supply of ventilators, it means there's more sick people than we can support. The virus is killing them indirectly. Come on people, just get the vaccine when it's available. The sooner we are resistant the sooner we go back to normal. Refusing it will just slow down that return to normality. I won't guarantee you won't be harmed by it, but the number of people who suffer long term illnesses will be small, that we know. So what is the plan then? How soon after being vaccinated are we allowed to completely return to normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: So what is the plan then? How soon after being vaccinated are we allowed to completely return to normal? Insufficient data to answer that one I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, GboroRam said: Insufficient data to answer that one I fear. Strange that you're telling people to get the vaccination under the promise of their lives getting back to normal then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Archied said: Still no answer from the usual suspects on figure s of people dying from Covid on ventilators and waiting for ventilators the lack of which are killing them , come on why no figures , why they not relevant,one would think they are important in giving a true picture or forming one ,die ing with or die Ing from seems a big distinction we are all happy to gloss over Is this tired, and quite frankly comically silly talking point of 'dying from' and 'dying with' seriously being trotted out again? Honestly, it's is just such a weak point that the very idea of people bringing it up is quite frankly laughable. The definition the UK is running with is death within 28 days of a positive test. We can actually use that and the standard death rate to estimate how many people we expect to 'die with Covid', and compare that to the figure. In the UK, ~600,000 people die per year, with a population of 67 million, or around about 0.8% of the population per year, or about 0.07% of the population per 28 days. That is, given a set of people, you expect 0.07% of them to die over that period of 28 days. There have been 1.26 million people who have tested positive for Covid-19 in the UK, hence we would expect 865 people from this set out die within 28 days of that diagnosis. Over 50,000 have died, however. That 865 people would make up only 1.7% of those deaths. Now, you can argue until you're blue in the face that this may or may not be a significant fraction, but the thing is, not all people who die from Covid-19 die within 28 days. If I recall right, the 99%ile for time to death is around 36 days, ie 1% of people who are killed by the disease take longer than 36 days from onset to die. That 28 days figure is an underestimate, and likely by more than the addition of people who 'died with Covid'. 51 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: So what is the plan then? How soon after being vaccinated are we allowed to completely return to normal? People get vaccinated, and restrictions remain in place until the virus is under control. With the vaccine, this should occur rapidly. That is, as long as antivaxers don't have a say. It should be relatively fast, of the order of weeks, if done properly. With antivaxers, a slow rollout, etc, it could take months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, Albert said: People get vaccinated, and restrictions remain in place until the virus is under control. With the vaccine, this should occur rapidly. That is, as long as antivaxers don't have a say. So if you have the vaccine your life is not guaranteed to go back to normal then? How many people need to be vaccinated before life can return to normal? How long will it take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: So if you have the vaccine your life is not guaranteed to go back to normal then? No, not without people actually getting it. 12 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: How many people need to be vaccinated before life can return to normal? Depends. In countries that have controlled the virus, life is pretty much normal already, and the vaccine is more to secure that position and make it more permanent. For countries with large outbreaks and limited control, it depends on whether they are capable of maintaining some level of restrictions. Really, what herd immunity is about is getting the reproduction number below 1, which is also what restrictions are about. In a sense, both can work together to make the process faster, without having to get to notional herd immunity threshold, which is usually stated as 1 - 1 / R_0 for any given disease, where R_0 is the base reproduction number, ie no one has any immunity yet. You can model a kind of quasi herd immunity where you take into account the current reproduction number too, though that starts to mess with the underlying assumptions of the model a bit. 12 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: How long will it take? Impossible to tell. The only real answer is a lot quicker than just letting it burn, and for the cost of far fewer lives, and people with permanent issues from the disease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Albert said: Is this tired, and quite frankly comically silly talking point of 'dying from' and 'dying with' seriously being trotted out again? Honestly, it's is just such a weak point that the very idea of people bringing it up is quite frankly laughable. The definition the UK is running with is death within 28 days of a positive test. We can actually use that and the standard death rate to estimate how many people we expect to 'die with Covid', and compare that to the figure. In the UK, ~600,000 people die per year, with a population of 67 million, or around about 0.8% of the population per year, or about 0.07% of the population per 28 days. That is, given a set of people, you expect 0.07% of them to die over that period of 28 days. There have been 1.26 million people who have tested positive for Covid-19 in the UK, hence we would expect 865 people from this set out die within 28 days of that diagnosis. Over 50,000 have died, however. That 865 people would make up only 1.7% of those deaths. Now, you can argue until you're blue in the face that this may or may not be a significant fraction, but the thing is, not all people who die from Covid-19 die within 28 days. If I recall right, the 99%ile for time to death is around 36 days, ie 1% of people who are killed by the disease take longer than 36 days from onset to die. That 28 days figure is an underestimate, and likely by more than the addition of people who 'died with Covid'. People get vaccinated, and restrictions remain in place until the virus is under control. With the vaccine, this should occur rapidly. That is, as long as antivaxers don't have a say. It should be relatively fast, of the order of weeks, if done properly. With antivaxers, a slow rollout, etc, it could take months. Yeah the number s the virus actually kills is a tired and pointless fact ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said: How long will it take? Don't you get bored of this line of questioning? We all know that a vaccine is required for life to go back to something like it was, but because no one can say right this second how long that will take, you think this somehow a valid argument against it? Starting to think you might actually be a badly designed AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, Archied said: Yeah the number s the virus actually kills is a tired and pointless fact ????? ...you might as well have just declared 'lol, didn't read' if this is your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Albert said: ...you might as well have just declared 'lol, didn't read' if this is your response. With nearly 600 dying yesterday, and an estimated two weeks growing, maybe the death statistics will change some minds soon. But I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: Don't you get bored of this line of questioning? We all know that a vaccine is required for life to go back to something like it was, but because no one can say right this second how long that will take, you think this somehow a valid argument against it? Starting to think you might actually be a badly designed AI. Yeah I get really bored of wanting to know when we can get back to normal. Even you must be bored...you've started reading The Sun articles, and we all know how much you look down on people that do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 50 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: Don't you get bored of this line of questioning? We all know that a vaccine is required for life to go back to something like it was, but because no one can say right this second how long that will take, you think this somehow a valid argument against it? Starting to think you might actually be a badly designed AI. Don't you get bored of replying? I gave up on these never ending arguments ages ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Yeah I get really bored of wanting to know when we can get back to normal. I thik we all feel like that - Except that's not what you were saying, you're trying to use the fact that we dont know how long it will take as some sort of weird argument against being supportive of the vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said: Don't you get bored of replying? YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Yeah I get really bored of wanting to know when we can get back to normal. Even you must be bored...you've started reading The Sun articles, and we all know how much you look down on people that do that. If you want things to get back to normal, surely you're really keen on as many people as possible getting the vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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