Archied Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, jimmyp said: I asked you earlier Archied but you never replied. What do you think will happen to the nhs if covid-19 admissions continue on the current trajectory? One of the main reasons we are locking down is so that the hospitals can continue with elective duties. The nhs are trying to save as many lives as possible whatever the diagnosis. Rather depends whether you have any faith in how the data is being collated and used and the modelling and projections, let’s not pretend that this is a lockdown either it’s yet another set of rules and restrictions that make not a jot of sense when you scratch the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, Archied said: Rather depends whether you have any faith in how the data is being collated and used and the modelling and projections, let’s not pretend that this is a lockdown either it’s yet another set of rules and restrictions that make not a jot of sense when you scratch the surface I’m not fussed about what the restrictions are called. Im only concerned about them reducing the r rate. Are you skeptical of the hospital admission rate provided by the nhs and ons? Have you spoken to any of the doctors that are begging people to follow the restrictions and social distance. Did you see the scenes in Liverpool’s hospitals today? Are you aware of how many elective surgeries have been cancelled thus far and are continuing to be cancelled in some hospitals? If we want to save as many lives as possible, not just covid lives, then we have to get the r rate down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, jimmyp said: I asked you earlier Archied but you never replied. What do you think will happen to the nhs if covid-19 admissions continue on the current trajectory? One of the main reasons we are locking down is so that the hospitals can continue with elective duties. The nhs are trying to save as many lives as possible whatever the diagnosis. You quoted my post but didn’t give an answer , why no follow up on how many of those supposed massive numbers of positive tests have gone on to die or be hospitalised? Perhaps the answer to that would highlight the fact that the major problem is the funding of the nhs which is under massive pressure every winter rather than corona virus running riot with hospitalisation s and deaths ,,, wouldn’t want that would we ,,, perhaps the billions spent on destroying people’s business s and jobs would have been better spent preparing the nhs for a second wave they said all along would come , but then perhaps doing that the money would not hit the right pockets eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, Archied said: Strangely enough the lock down does not adversely affect me too much as I’m pretty much a family bloke and not really a big socialiser ,work is in construction and Fine so believe it or not ,not everybody that doesn’t see it your way is some kind of scuzzer who’s only care is getting down the pub/ curry house so being accused of that is offensive especially in fairness from someone who’s main obsession as far I can see from posts is beer ,fair comment? what I do care about are people around me who have far more to worry about than just staying in ,health and livelihood wise , you insinuate I value life so low ? I would suggest you consider how much you value life of people who are /will lose they’re s to the alter that is saving Covid lives ,it seems a swap you r ok to make because your supposed Covid vulnerable? Listening / reading. Do I do something different ? Yep I reckon I do , why ? Well because I actually read people’s posts and try to get a flavour of what they are about hence I know that Belgium beer delivery being stopped would bring a whole new slant on things whilst you will repeat the pub stuff over and over I apologise if I come over as a bitter and twisted old man, but I haven't been able to see my children or my grandchildren since March, and every piece of advice given to me is that is not something that is going to change for a long time, and every time I read stories or see reports about people partying in the streets, holding illegal raves and hosting their own private 'super-spreader' events, I mentally add another month on to the time I will be able to see my loved ones again. I also apologise for suggesting that you value life lower than I do - perhaps this was a misinterpretation of what you wrote seemingly suggesting that, if we had been told that it would 'only' kill 3% of the population, we wouldn't bother taking the precautions we are taking. Every single person who refuses to take precautions, refuses to wear a mask, breaks the rules because 'It's not going to hurt me' or even supports those who subscribe to the "It's practically harmless to me, so why should I care?" viewpoint is misguided, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, jimmyp said: I’m not fussed about what the restrictions are called. Im only concerned about them reducing the r rate. Are you skeptical of the hospital admission rate provided by the nhs and ons? Have you spoken to any of the doctors that are begging people to follow the restrictions and social distance. Did you see the scenes in Liverpool’s hospitals today? Are you aware of how many elective surgeries have been cancelled thus far and are continuing to be cancelled in some hospitals? If we want to save as many lives as possible, not just covid lives, then we have to get the r rate down. I get pretty decent info on nhs from family thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Archied said: You quoted my post but didn’t give an answer , why no follow up on how many of those supposed massive numbers of positive tests have gone on to die or be hospitalised? Perhaps the answer to that would highlight the fact that the major problem is the funding of the nhs which is under massive pressure every winter rather than corona virus running riot with hospitalisation s and deaths ,,, wouldn’t want that would we ,,, perhaps the billions spent on destroying people’s business s and jobs would have been better spent preparing the nhs for a second wave they said all along would come , but then perhaps doing that the money would not hit the right pockets eventually The figures are readily available on nearly every news outlet, Gov.uk, ons, sage, nhs etc etc. Why don’t you google them? The chief medical officer was on tv showing the figures. The chief executive of the nhs has released statements with the figures. Again a quick google and you will find them. Yes the NHS is underfunded in my view. Yes the NHS have very challenging winters most years. The strain it is under now has never been so great before covid-19. The NHS doesn’t need a load of money right now. It needs more specialist doctors and nurses, and it needs them now. This isn’t going to be a struggle if we don’t reduce the r. It will be a major disaster both health wise and economically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Archied said: You quoted my post but didn’t give an answer , why no follow up on how many of those supposed massive numbers of positive tests have gone on to die or be hospitalised? Perhaps the answer to that would highlight the fact that the major problem is the funding of the nhs which is under massive pressure every winter rather than corona virus running riot with hospitalisation s and deaths ,,, wouldn’t want that would we ,,, perhaps the billions spent on destroying people’s business s and jobs would have been better spent preparing the nhs for a second wave they said all along would come , but then perhaps doing that the money would not hit the right pockets eventually There is a lag of up to 4 weeks between contracting the disease, getting ill, getting very ill, being admitted to hospital and cashing in your chips. New cases 12 weeks ago were around 1000 a day. New cases 8 weeks ago were around 2000 - 3000 a day. New cases 4 weeks ago were around 8000 - 12000 a day. New cases now are around 23000 a day. Deaths 8 weeks ago were around 10 a day. Deaths 4 weeks ago were around 40 - 80 a day. Deaths now are around 200 - 300 a day. Deaths in 4 weeks are going to be ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eddie said: I apologise if I come over as a bitter and twisted old man, but I haven't been able to see my children or my grandchildren since March, and every piece of advice given to me is that is not something that is going to change for a long time, and every time I read stories or see reports about people partying in the streets, holding illegal raves and hosting their own private 'super-spreader' events, I mentally add another month on to the time I will be able to see my loved ones again. I also apologise for suggesting that you value life lower than I do - perhaps this was a misinterpretation of what you wrote seemingly suggesting that, if we had been told that it would 'only' kill 3% of the population, we wouldn't bother taking the precautions we are taking. Every single person who refuses to take precautions, refuses to wear a mask, breaks the rules because 'It's not going to hurt me' or even supports those who subscribe to the "It's practically harmless to me, so why should I care?" viewpoint is misguided, in my opinion. Thank you Eddie , total respect, it breaks my heart to see the misery and separation this is causing to families and it’s easy to not consider you are going through the same thing so you have my apologies too, im sure we all want the same thing just different views on how it’s all being handled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Archied said: Thank you Eddie , total respect, it breaks my heart to see the misery and separation this is causing to families and it’s easy to not consider you are going through the same thing so you have my apologies too, im sure we all want the same thing just different views on how it’s all being handled Sorry for the beery reaction. Consider it to be ginger beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, jimmyp said: The figures are readily available on nearly every news outlet, Gov.uk, ons, sage, nhs etc etc. Why don’t you google them? The chief medical officer was on tv showing the figures. The chief executive of the nhs has released statements with the figures. Again a quick google and you will find them. Yes the NHS is underfunded in my view. Yes the NHS have very challenging winters most years. The strain it is under now has never been so great before covid-19. The NHS doesn’t need a load of money right now. It needs more specialist doctors and nurses, and it needs them now. This isn’t going to be a struggle if we don’t reduce the r. It will be a major disaster both health wise and economically. Jimmy the figures from day one on this have been a total mess news outlets have strangled any opinion other than the gov narrative , there are highly rated scientist and medical people who have a different view on this virus and the way to handle it ,they are slowly managing to get they’re voices heard now , challenging winters is a big understatement, during lockdown the nhs was given an open chequebook , which was then closed and budgets set back in place with a second wave expected ? Hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, Archied said: Jimmy the figures from day one on this have been a total mess news outlets have strangled any opinion other than the gov narrative , there are highly rated scientist and medical people who have a different view on this virus and the way to handle it ,they are slowly managing to get they’re voices heard now , challenging winters is a big understatement, during lockdown the nhs was given an open chequebook , which was then closed and budgets set back in place with a second wave expected ? Hmmmmm If we ignore all of the figures other than hospital admissions for a moment, do you think the nhs will cope given the current admission rate? The nhs is currently trying to keep as many elective services open as possible whilst dealing with covid on top. If we want less people to die we need to keep the elective services going. It really isn’t about the money for the NHS, it’s about the finite amount of specialist staff they have. Its no good having loads of surgeons sat about doing nothing because all the operating theatre staff are working in icu. You could have the biggest cheque book in the world, it can’t unfortunately be used to instantly buy doctors and nurses though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 4 hours ago, sage said: Who is grabbing the money? Bezos. I don't think anyone has gained as much as him during this year, have they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uttoxram75 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: Bezos. I don't think anyone has gained as much as him during this year, have they? There's a few actually............ https://time.com/5897229/billionaires-richer-coronavirus-polarization/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rammieib Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Eddie said: There is a lag of up to 4 weeks between contracting the disease, getting ill, getting very ill, being admitted to hospital and cashing in your chips. New cases 12 weeks ago were around 1000 a day. New cases 8 weeks ago were around 2000 - 3000 a day. New cases 4 weeks ago were around 8000 - 12000 a day. New cases now are around 23000 a day. Deaths 8 weeks ago were around 10 a day. Deaths 4 weeks ago were around 40 - 80 a day. Deaths now are around 200 - 300 a day. Deaths in 4 weeks are going to be ??? The day by day positive cases in March and April were significantly higher than they are now. 100k a day reports have shown based on antibody levels. So back in March/April when deaths peaked at 1000 based on 100k a day cases why does your prediction suggest similar numbers now? (That’s what i think you’re showing?) Why did Vallance and Witty present graphs significantly higher deaths than this when there is no statistical evidence for this for anywhere in the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Without double checking, we're above 55k deaths and an estimated 10-15% of the population have had the virus. Based on those numbers we'd be looking at about 370-550k total deaths if we let it burn through the entire country unrestricted- equivalent to a 0.55-0.8% fatality rate. However, those figures are based on current health care conditions. Without lockdown restrictions, we'd exceed surge capacity in hospitals in just over a month. That fatality rate will therefore increase by an unknown amount. Decisions on which people to save and which to let die will then have to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 8 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said: Without double checking, we're above 55k deaths and an estimated 10-15% of the population have had the virus. Based on those numbers we'd be looking at about 370-550k total deaths if we let it burn through the entire country unrestricted- equivalent to a 0.55-0.8% fatality rate. However, those figures are based on current health care conditions. Without lockdown restrictions, we'd exceed surge capacity in hospitals in just over a month. That fatality rate will therefore increase by an unknown amount. Decisions on which people to save and which to let die will then have to be made. And then there's the "getting it again" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BriggRam Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Yep things are that bad all the nightingale hospitals are brimming with fresh patients ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, BriggRam said: Yep things are that bad all the nightingale hospitals are brimming with fresh patients ? Would you prefer that we wait for that to happen, or try to prevent it happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BriggRam Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, GboroRam said: Would you prefer that we wait for that to happen, or try to prevent it happening? Some bloke on the news saying they are having to move critically ill patients to other hospitals to free up beds........why don't they use the nightingale hospitals for Corona patients like they were meant to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, BriggRam said: Some bloke on the news saying they are having to move critically ill patients to other hospitals to free up beds........why don't they use the nightingale hospitals for Corona patients like they were meant to be Because while they have the beds, they don't have the staff to manage them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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