Coronavirus

[Albert]

8 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I was hoping that the usual suspects would be able to put a positive spin on this, but it just seems to have been ignored.

That's because there's not really any way of putting a positive spin on it. I guess we're all just hoping that the restrictions begin to have an impact, and these rises are arrested sooner rather than later. 

[G STAR RAM]

9 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I was hoping that the usual suspects would be able to put a positive spin on this, but it just seems to have been ignored.

What's the demographic?

How many of the patients already had an underlying health issue?

What treatments are being used now that weren't back in March/April?

It's not about putting a positive spin on things its more about what the figure shows and just quoting it on its own shows nothing does it?

 

[Spanish]

20 minutes ago, Albert said:

What it's showing is that when you combine the flu and pneumonia (which can be approximated as just pneumonia) have been the cause of more deaths since mid-June, which is true. The figures are in deaths per month from what I can tell, but they're not labelled as such. 

The figures you quote off the graph are what they mean, kind of, but it cuts off right as the numbers are ramping up again, ie mid September. The government figure for September was 642, but the ONS figure would be higher, as they don't use the 28 days definition. The last 30 days has had 1211 deaths officially recorded as Covid, so it's a bit out of date. 

Cheers. 

Hospital acquired pneumonia is a very common reason for death in hospital and has been for some time I believe, my Dad officially died of this.  Commonly referred to as 'the old man's friend'.

[Angry Ram]

37 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

North/South divide at play with this Second Wave. The steady drain of talent from the North to the South over the last 20/30 years has greatly depleted the gene pool of those who remain. 

@Angry RamDo you have big keepnet I can borrow ?

I've got a spare, mine is usually full.

This north south divide thing has got me thinking though. I reckon mushy peas are super spreaders. Stay away and us southerners will be back in the pub toot sweet. ?

[Albert]

2 minutes ago, Spanish said:

Hospital acquired pneumonia is a very common reason for death in hospital and has been for some time I believe, my Dad officially died of this.  Commonly referred to as 'the old man's friend'.

Hence people are able to use it as spin for "Covid isn't that bad" during that period of time. Sadly, the death rate has gone back above it. Let's hope for better news in the coming days and weeks. 

[Spanish]

4 minutes ago, Albert said:

Hence people are able to use it as spin for "Covid isn't that bad" during that period of time. Sadly, the death rate has gone back above it. Let's hope for better news in the coming days and weeks. 

just picked this out of a BBC article

Back in January 2020, at the end of the Australian summer, the country had 6,962 cases of the flu confirmed via a laboratory test. At this time, Covid-19 was still known only as “the novel coronavirus” and mostly confined to China. Ordinarily, you would have expected to see more and more cases of the flu as the days became shorter and winter descended.

Instead, something unexpected happened. By April there were just 229 cases of the flu – down from 18,705 at the same time the previous year. Covid-19 had already ripped across the world, collectively infecting more than a million people, including the British prime minister, and spreading to every continent except Antarctica. Lockdowns had been imposed, hand-washing had been popularised and mask-wearing had become commonplace – though the latter was still much more widely practiced in Asia than elsewhere.

By August, it was clear that Australia’s flu season had been the mildest on record. In all, there were fewer than a 10th of the infections seen in 2019 – and the vast majority of these occurred before the pandemic hit. This is all against a backdrop of more testing than had ever been conducted before.

The same pattern also occurred elsewhere. The co-head of South Africa’s National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) recently told CBS News that the country “just didn't have a flu season this year”, while in New Zealand, doctors didn’t detect a single flu case during their annual screening drive, though last year 57% of the swabs they took were positive.  

 

full article here https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201009-could-social-distancing-make-the-flu-extinct

 

suppose the story could be spun the other way around in that CV19 dealt with those that would have been susceptible to flu in another time

 

[ariotofmyown]

30 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

What's the demographic?

How many of the patients already had an underlying health issue?

What treatments are being used now that weren't back in March/April?

It's not about putting a positive spin on things its more about what the figure shows and just quoting it on its own shows nothing does it?

 

Yeah hopefully the survival rate of those going into hospital with Covid are better now thanks to better treatments.

I still think it's a scary figure that we have more people in hospital with Covid now than we did when March's lockdown was announced.

[ariotofmyown]

30 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

I've got a spare, mine is usually full.

This north south divide thing has got me thinking though. I reckon mushy peas are super spreaders. Stay away and us southerners will be back in the pub toot sweet. ?

Some northern fool has probably told them all to inject mushy peas into their bodies.

What a waste of mushy peas.

[BaaLocks]

1 hour ago, Spanish said:

@BaaLocksCan either of you explain the graph to me.  it looks like flu and pneumonia deaths in sept is >1k and cv19 c.250 is that not how I am supposed to read it?

The graph on the right shows, effectively, cumulative monthly deaths. Football analogy, how many goals have we scored in the past year in total. This time last year we beat Leeds 6-0 but next game we draw with Watford 3-3, our goals scored in the past year will go down by three.

The middle graph shows number of daily deaths. Football analogy, how many goals did we score in the last game. This graph would go up by three (I know, it's beyond crazy to imagine we would score three goals).

The graph on the right is trying to suggest that flu and pneumonia deaths are averaging out much, much higher than Covid deaths. I agree with @Albert and @jimmyp that this is a bit naughty for two reasons. One - flu and penumonia are not the same, you may as well show Covid and suicides together. Secondly, we have no idea of the seasonal response of Covid, we haven't had it for a full year yet so have no way of knowing, though we can suspect, if it increases in winter. And we have no way of knowing if there is a flu pandemic on the way as much as there might be a second wave of Covid.

Cold weather may make it less contagious, for all sorts of reasons such as our having more snot in our nose to particles travelling less distance in cold air. Or it may make it more as we all spend more time inside close to each other.

And, even if flu is dangerous saying it's a reason to not worry about Covid is a bit like saying you don't have to worry about getting into a cage with a tiger because there's already a lion in there.

[jimmyp]

32 minutes ago, Spanish said:

just picked this out of a BBC article

Back in January 2020, at the end of the Australian summer, the country had 6,962 cases of the flu confirmed via a laboratory test. At this time, Covid-19 was still known only as “the novel coronavirus” and mostly confined to China. Ordinarily, you would have expected to see more and more cases of the flu as the days became shorter and winter descended.

Instead, something unexpected happened. By April there were just 229 cases of the flu – down from 18,705 at the same time the previous year. Covid-19 had already ripped across the world, collectively infecting more than a million people, including the British prime minister, and spreading to every continent except Antarctica. Lockdowns had been imposed, hand-washing had been popularised and mask-wearing had become commonplace – though the latter was still much more widely practiced in Asia than elsewhere.

By August, it was clear that Australia’s flu season had been the mildest on record. In all, there were fewer than a 10th of the infections seen in 2019 – and the vast majority of these occurred before the pandemic hit. This is all against a backdrop of more testing than had ever been conducted before.

The same pattern also occurred elsewhere. The co-head of South Africa’s National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) recently told CBS News that the country “just didn't have a flu season this year”, while in New Zealand, doctors didn’t detect a single flu case during their annual screening drive, though last year 57% of the swabs they took were positive.  

 

full article here https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201009-could-social-distancing-make-the-flu-extinct

 

suppose the story could be spun the other way around in that CV19 dealt with those that would have been susceptible to flu in another time

 

Yes everyone dies at some point. You have to work out when they would of died and how many extra years of expected life Covid is taking.

Think the figure is between 12 and 14 years.

So we take the data of the people that have died to date with Covid being the cause of death, we can then say they would of been expected to live for a further 12-14 years.

This  doesn’t take into account any further complications that arise from Covid-19, many of which are starting to be seen. 

[Gone]

1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said:

The families of 50k dead people may disagree.

Oh that’s a crass comment, hope it gets removed. 

[May Contain Nuts]

51 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I still think it's a scary figure that we have more people in hospital with Covid now than we did when March's lockdown was announced.

Scary figure, but...

The figures may have been lower in March as a result of the thousands of elderly people shunted back into care homes not being included?  Or to word that differently - The figure including those who should have been in hospital with Covid in March may well be thousands higher than the number who currently are in hospital with Covid.

..and if these people are in hospital and receiving proper treatment, the death rates could be much lower.

Are the Nightingale Units being prepped for use, or are they still a white elephant?

[GboroRam]

43 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

And, even if flu is dangerous saying it's a reason to not worry about Covid is a bit like saying you don't have to worry about getting into a cage with a tiger because there's already a lion in there.

Is there a way we can engineer the flu virus to attack coronavirus? Sounds marvellous, let's do it.

[Spanish]

44 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Yes everyone dies at some point. You have to work out when they would of died and how many extra years of expected life Covid is taking.

Think the figure is between 12 and 14 years.

So we take the data of the people that have died to date with Covid being the cause of death, we can then say they would of been expected to live for a further 12-14 years.

This  doesn’t take into account any further complications that arise from Covid-19, many of which are starting to be seen. 

I really think that is pushing it a bit.  I certainly believe that CV19 is ending peoples lives earlier than it would otherwise be.  Whether you accept that it is only if the person only had 1 day, 1 month or 1 year to go I still find it objectionable that any early death should be seen as acceptable.  At the heart of this is whether the economy is worth more than the lives lost early due to the impact of the virus.  To be fair to both sides of the argument that is a difficult decision to make.

[jimmyp]

6 minutes ago, Spanish said:

I really think that is pushing it a bit.  I certainly believe that CV19 is ending peoples lives earlier than it would otherwise be.  Whether you accept that it is only if the person only had 1 day, 1 month or 1 year to go I still find it objectionable that any early death should be seen as acceptable.  At the heart of this is whether the economy is worth more than the lives lost early due to the impact of the virus.  To be fair to both sides of the argument that is a difficult decision to make.

Unfortunately the figure is correct based on current data. 

You can research it and verify through many reliable organisations including ONS and WHO.

 

[Stive Pesley]

3 hours ago, maxjam said:

bit of a scary map designed to push the north/south divide thing - division sells papers/garners clicks I guess

Derby is currently on 66 cases per 100,000 people - which is considered low (liverpool is nearly 500), and we're not anywhere near on the watch list (yet)

https://www.centreforcities.org/data/coronavirus-cases-uk-cities-large-towns/

But we're all RED!! AAAAAAAAAARGH!!!!

 

[Stive Pesley]

3 tier system then - Merseyside into top tier "very high" - no socialising, pubs closed "need to save lives"

Good job that schools, offices and public transport are all places where it's impossible to catch viruses

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

Liverpoop the only city in tier 3. Scousers always a victim.

[maxjam]

37 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Unfortunately the figure is correct based on current data. 

You can research it and verify through many reliable organisations including ONS and WHO.

 

Not gonna trawl through ONS/WHO data but I've seen it reported numerous times that the average age of covid deaths is in the 80s;

According to this article;

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/average-age-of-coronavirus-fatalities-is-82-pcwqrzdzz

The average age of those who have died from coronavirus in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic is 82.4 years old.

Using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), researchers at the University of Oxford found that the median age of a Covid-19 fatality was slightly higher than the median age of those who died of other causes over the same period, which was 81.5.

I'm not denying that I'd want to cling to every extra day of life but I think covid taking an extra 12-14 years of life is a bit like arguing there is a pay gap etc - ie selective use of stats.

Also from the article;

The researchers also found that about six in every 1,000 infections now result in deaths, down from 30 in every 1000 in June - which regardless of petty arguments that appear to be going on in the forum will hopefully be see as good news by us all ?

[jimmyp]

5 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Not gonna trawl through ONS/WHO data but I've seen it reported numerous times that the average age of covid deaths is in the 80s;

According to this article;

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/average-age-of-coronavirus-fatalities-is-82-pcwqrzdzz

The average age of those who have died from coronavirus in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic is 82.4 years old.

Using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), researchers at the University of Oxford found that the median age of a Covid-19 fatality was slightly higher than the median age of those who died of other causes over the same period, which was 81.5.

I'm not denying that I'd want to cling to every extra day of life but I think covid taking an extar 12-14 years of life is a bit like arguing their is a pay gap etc - ie selective use of stats.

Also from the article;

The researchers also found that about six in every 1,000 infections now result in deaths, down from 30 in every 1000 in June - which regardless of petty arguments that appear to be going on in the forum will hopefully be see as good news by us all ?

Yes the average person is quite old, doesn’t mean lots of people who are younger than the average life expectancy point aren’t being wiped out also.

Just a short snippet from one of many pieces of research so you don’t have to go trawling through the data.

”

Nonetheless, the widespread misconception remained that it mainly killed old people, and that those old people would soon have died anyway. But this last claim is clearly false. A recent study (using data from Italy) found that, after adjusting for long-term health conditions, women who die of Covid-19 lose on average 13 years of life; men lose 11. So the typical Covid victim loses not ‘just’ a few months or a couple of years, but twelve years of life. Over a decade that could, and should have been spent watching grandchildren – and children – growing up. Instead, they are dead, and all the life they would have had has been lost.”