Coronavirus

[rammieib]

49 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

That's why I don't bother following the death counts or infection rates in the daily briefing any more. We haven’t even kept to one monitoring standard since this began, adding in care homes part way through, including deaths from prior to the monitoring period. Its fairly meaningless. The only figures we have are the comparison with previous years - and that's a false comparison during a nationwide lockdown. 

What do you look at then to see how we are fairing?

[Uptherams]

20 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not sure I see that being the case in the UK, which will make our figures look even worse in comparison to other countries.

Well the headline figures being used in the UK and use of language is with Covid-19 and not of. Which would also be a good indicator for inflation. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Well the headline figures being used in the UK and use of language is with Covid-19 and not of. Which would also be a good indicator for inflation. 

The current year figure against a 5 year average is an even better indicator surely?

[Uptherams]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

That's why I don't bother following the death counts or infection rates in the daily briefing any more. We haven’t even kept to one monitoring standard since this began, adding in care homes part way through, including deaths from prior to the monitoring period. Its fairly meaningless. The only figures we have are the comparison with previous years - and that's a false comparison during a nationwide lockdown. 

Lockdown won't lead to a statistically significant decrease in other forms of deaths (total). You can find ONS data on every death annually. The Guardian used to produce some good infographics. 

 

[Uptherams]

18 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

The current year figure against a 5 year average is an even better indicator surely?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020

I've been going over the latest figures and obviously reading the comparisons to 5 year averages. There's a lot to divulge. 

"Week 16,  11,854 more deaths than the 5 year average. 

Of the deaths registered in Week 16, 8,758 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 39.2% of all deaths."

Therefore my initial line of questioning would be, what has caused the increase in death's for those without Covid-19 being cited. The other 60.8%. What caused the additional 7000 or so deaths compared to the 5 year average?

This potentially, is what many doctors have been talking about in terms of the impact of the lockdown and it's negative side. We might already have the data that indicates people dieing because of loniliness, depression, malnutrition, lack of access to treatment, surgery or drugs, etc. 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, Uptherams said:

Sorry, wouldn't that mean 25% increase in death not chance of death? ?

edit: If the infection fatality rate is 0.1% and everyone were to get it. That would mean people are 0.1% more likely to die. 

Chance of death remains at 100%. The coronavirus just accelerates it in, it seems, an awful lot of people.

You seem to have convinced yourself that it is, to quote Douglas Adams, 'Mostly harmless'.

[RamNut]

4 hours ago, rammieib said:

This political pressure was a big reason why the lock down came when it did. They knew the public could open survive so long.

Also regarding the future, a few reasons why I don’t think we will see big second waves: 1) millions of us simply won’t go near other people 2) The increases testing will allow better isolation 3) Treatment ideas will come out quicker and quicker and more effective 4) Prime hotspots for transmission won’t exist and 5) I hate to say this but one round of vulnerable people have sadly been lost so those left are not quite as vulnerable. (Just my own theory that last one).

Still I genuinely worry for the economy, people’s jobs etc. We’re going to see mass redundancy’s in the upcoming months. This for me is a reason to try and open up again, albeit by taking sensible risks.

I hope you’re right but there are more than 8.5million people aged >70; more people who are infected; and the summer is coming.

[rammieib]

4 hours ago, RamNut said:

I hope you’re right but there are more than 8.5million people aged >70; more people who are infected; and the summer is coming.

I’m hoping the summer is a good thing. Generally the warmer countries seem to have handled this better and I read that around 25 degrees this virus doesn’t survive well. Although when did we last have consistent temps like that lol.

 

[TimRam]

[richinspain]

1 hour ago, TimRam said:

Obviously fake, there's no Apple to be seen!

[RoyMac5]

What none of these stats show is how many would have died without lockdown. Which of you would have gambled and just carried on? Not me.

[SSD]

It is very worrying times at Rolls Royce. I know people like to joke about how lazy some of the staff are, having worked their for a couple of years and I can honestly say it's the nicest work environment I've ever been a part of. Everyone in my team gets on and backs you in every decision you make. It's one of the few workplaces where you genuinely want to go work. I've been contracting for them so naturally for the business, they need to let the likes of me leave first. What the news doesn't factor in is the hundreds of RR contractors who have already been told to go. So the job losses overall are higher because that number is only for RR employees. 

The business needs to be really careful though, it has already started a "square pegs in round holes" type of policy with its existing staff. That's not going to steady the ship going forward, regardless of what business you are in. But then if their mandate is keep as many RR jobs as possible, RR staff are really going to have to adapt fast to fill vacant jobs, in a tough world at the moment. It's so sad for Rolls Royce, I cant praise the staff highly enough.

I think with what I've learnt from this coronavirus situation is to adapt, not get stuck in my ways and help my family and neighbours as best as I can. A job is a job, I can find another one that pays the bills. My family are all well, I've sorted out shopping and errands for the most vulnerable people I know. It really has made me step back and think, bugger my good job, it doesn't make me happy. My family and friends do. 

[Gritstone Ram]

5 hours ago, rammieib said:

I’m hoping the summer is a good thing. Generally the warmer countries seem to have handled this better and I read that around 25 degrees this virus doesn’t survive well. Although when did we last have consistent temps like that lol.

 

Day time about 2 years ago night time never.

[rammieib]

3 hours ago, Van Gritters said:

Day time about 2 years ago night time never.

Virus goes to sleep at night ?

[rammieib]

3 hours ago, SouthStandDan said:

It is very worrying times at Rolls Royce. I know people like to joke about how lazy some of the staff are, having worked their for a couple of years and I can honestly say it's the nicest work environment I've ever been a part of. Everyone in my team gets on and backs you in every decision you make. It's one of the few workplaces where you genuinely want to go work. I've been contracting for them so naturally for the business, they need to let the likes of me leave first. What the news doesn't factor in is the hundreds of RR contractors who have already been told to go. So the job losses overall are higher because that number is only for RR employees. 

The business needs to be really careful though, it has already started a "square pegs in round holes" type of policy with its existing staff. That's not going to steady the ship going forward, regardless of what business you are in. But then if their mandate is keep as many RR jobs as possible, RR staff are really going to have to adapt fast to fill vacant jobs, in a tough world at the moment. It's so sad for Rolls Royce, I cant praise the staff highly enough.

I think with what I've learnt from this coronavirus situation is to adapt, not get stuck in my ways and help my family and neighbours as best as I can. A job is a job, I can find another one that pays the bills. My family are all well, I've sorted out shopping and errands for the most vulnerable people I know. It really has made me step back and think, bugger my good job, it doesn't make me happy. My family and friends do. 

Nice post for your outlook. Let's hope markets can recover as quickly as possible and demand for new/replacement aircraft comes as soon as possible. 2-3 year delay in this sector sadly and Derby will be affected. I also feel for the many supply chains behind RR especially local to us. 

[mozza]

News just in..

 

[i-Ram]

18 minutes ago, mozza said:

News just in..

 

I am no expert, but someone needs too consider the penetration damage that ivy might cause.

[Archied]

2 hours ago, i-Ram said:

I am no expert, but someone needs too consider the penetration damage that ivy might cause.

Ivy?  Looks more like a leaf to me 

[Guest]

Just listening to the daily briefing, did someone really just ask if the disproportionate effects of coronavirus on the BAME community is linked to racism? ???

[bigbadbob]

Here we go